Is This The End…

Today's number is $250 billion because that's what's just been wiped off the crypto markets with another $700 billion on other markets around the world in just the last 24 hours. But could this be the beginning of the end for one of the most popular markets in the world? And is it the end of the cycle as we know it? Well, one thing's for sure, we are seeing unusual activity, and it's happening all the way around the world, whether it's the Korean market that just entered into literally a trading halt, or it's the Japanese market that went up almost 20% in one month. It's clear that there are bubbles potentially about to pop. But we always have to ask the question, will it happen right now? And more importantly, what should you be doing when it comes to stocks, commodities, and cryptos? In today's video, we'll explore it all, including a few giant dark pool trades See you soon, guys. Remember, it's usual for Bitcoin to go down between 20% and 30%, even in bull market runs where it wipes out certain lows. And it's why we expected recently that we would drop underneath $100k, and now we get to the decision point. Is it all over? Well, later on today's video, we'll talk about what we think. But of course, this is more of what we expected based on the current halving cycle and where we find ourselves. So maybe more worrying than any of this actually is what's going on in some of the Asian markets. Now we know that they like to lever up and when things leverage up, it is very quick. Actually, the Korean market is one of the most wild. And one of the viewers sent this over to me. And I don't look at it very often, but boy, oh boy, has it been on a heater. This is probably one of the best markets this year. And it just went up over 20% in just one month, which obviously means that it's incredibly unusual. Now, when you get up to these levels, generally, you will see extreme volatility at the tops. And you'll also extreme, usually extreme busts followed by huge rallies. And then they can be the sign of the end. Do we know it's the top just yet? Not even with the fall of just what's happened over the last 24 hours with the trading curve being put in. Do we actually know that this is still the top? But I say one thing about these markets, and they are parabolic. With the Nikkei also doing 18% in one month, it's now down 6% from the top. So these are major indices. These are not just small fry kind of weird stocks. This is happening all over the world. And it does tend to have, of course, that repeat action where we go up really, really quickly and then spend a huge amount of time going sideways to down over the next preceding years. That's one of those worries that, of course, people have. Another worry is starting to come up in the news, though, and this could be used, of course, as an excuse moving forward to potentially sell the market down further. And that is that we are now tied for the longest government shutdown ever. And, of course, we expect it to continue to probably go for a while yet. You can see here, usually with government shutdowns in the past, they used to worry the markets and we would actually see a sell off, as we thought this time around. Up until this point, we were probably going to see gains. So far, we have actually had that. What will happen, though, in the future is now a little bit more uncertain because every time you go to a larger level, that is a larger length in terms of government shutdown, more things start to, of course, potentially break in the back end. And it also brings up questions of what's going on the jobs market and, of course, what's going on in maybe the fragility of the banking system. Speaking of the banking system quickly here, the New York Stock Exchange margin debt is now, of course, accelerating at peaks that we haven't seen since 2021 late, 2011, 2007, and, of course, the dotcom bubble. And this has been a chart that we've brought up many times. It's one of those charts that you look at, you say, that's worrying. And then, of course, you go back and you just continue to trade the price action. It is not a timing tool, but instead a sign of when you want to be considering what to do with things like leverage. Because leverage at these levels, yeah, that's pretty much a no-no. That is a dangerous point to be in it without risk management. Another thing that's dangerous about all of this is we don't even know what economic news we're meant to be getting. Of course, nonfarm payroll's final release forecast, one coming in here courtesy of a daily chart book, obviously, and link up. You can see here that we are expecting that actually the US will have not grown jobs at all. This will be one of the big negatives here. Remember, we don't even know where the revisions are yet. They've been the ones that have been most terrifying. Going back last two months, revisions, of course, have been shocking, as you can see here in the charts. But it's expected that 5,000 jobs were actually lost over the month of October. And, of course, the big question then becomes, well, if we get the government back open, will we actually see jobs start to pick up again? And that's the expectation, but of course, we don't know that yet. Now, what we'll do in today's videos, we'll go over some more negative kind of charts, and then we'll go over some positives as well, so you can put things in balance. Very important as an investor and trader that we can do this, that we look at both the really bad side and the really good side, and then try to figure out where the middle is. Because remember, the middle is generally where the profit is. It's not the extreme on either side that generally makes you successful in these markets. Now, of course, since Liberation Day lows, we've seen an inflation kind of pick up here in terms of trueflation. And we also know that this is very similar to our 1970s overlay chart that we've got over on X, links in the description down below. Another quick reminder as well, if you are down there in the description, sign up to our newsletter as we do share a individual specific chart that's very helpful along with these videos to really kind of cut through the noise, especially into the end of this year. So make sure to do that, totally free, links in the description. So let's just quickly talk about this SOFR rate. Obviously, we saw last Friday some money being needed, it was kind of emergency funds, and we saw a 35 basis point hike in terms of the overall funds rate. Now, that's a little bit concerning, but as a lot of you correctly said, and this is why I'm not going into it too much, we've seen this before. So of course, if this becomes more common, then that probably is saying that the Federal Reserve is going to need to start QE, which we already expect them to do. And then of course, they'll have to come in and support. And it turns out actually that the PBOC just started QE sneakily in the month of October. So you can clearly see that central banks are starting to see weakness in the economies, and they're starting to do something about it by providing some liquidity. Now, why is this? Well, one of the reasons that's a bit problem here is look at the factors draining the reserve balances here. One of the things here is we're actually seeing that the overall money on hand is actually dropping here. And this is, of course, a cause for concern when you're looking at these markets. Now, probably the biggest topic of the last 24 hours, other than the parabolic markets in Asia, probably starting to show real significant signs of pullbacks, that is also Bitcoin. Will we enter into the end of the cycle? So we've long argued that, of course, the end of the cycle is pretty much right now. Why? Because this is the timing. We're at about 540-something days since, of course, the halving to top area, which marks the previous two. We're, of course, near the top-to-top kind of numbers that we've seen in the past. We're near the bottom-to-top numbers that we've seen in the past. In fact, we're at about 1060 right now. And this basically, of course, usually marks the end of the Bitcoin run, the beginning of a kind of last falter in the alt market, and the end of the whole thing. Now, what's happened over the last 24 hours is I've seen a huge amount of people giving up on Bitcoin. And I don't know if you guys have seen it as well, but crypto in general is having an existential crisis. Now, why? Well, it's Wall Street. And we've argued this for a long time. When Wall Street got involved and it became basically the coins of Wall Street profit rather than the coins of supposedly the general population actually being in control of their own currency, it kind of ruined it. And I saw a lot of you guys in the comment section believing this as well. So this is certainly, I think, the biggest existential crisis we've ever seen in the cryptoverse. And to me, anyway, it's all going to come back to price action. Now that we're around the 100,000, especially if we drop into the 96s and 98s, which we'll look at later on, the way the market reacts to that is going to tell us a lot about whether this is the end of the cycle or potentially the cycle is going to break and it's going to go straight back up. And I think that, of course, tokenization of everything is what Wall Street wants to do. And of course, we also have the Texas Stock Exchange and other things happening at the end of this year, which could still make another run for these cryptos. So that's important to note. Now, I thought this was a great chart here from Strategas, courtesy again of Morgan Stanley here. And you can see some maybe worrying signs in some ways. And that is that the S&P 500 composition by weight is now made up of 41.4% 10 largest companies. Oh, that's concentrated, guys. This is terrifying in some ways when you look at it, because the problem is when you get concentrated like this, we've shown charts, the nifty 50 back in the 70s. Obviously, the dotcom boom when we got concentrated by just one sector that became over 30%. When you crack the 30% barrier, which we did basically in 2024, it starts to make you say the word fool and scary. And is the index the best anymore? Concentrated markets do tend to have problems long term in terms of gains. And you can kind of see we're in the point here where it's like the terminator. These businesses have to basically continue to give good earnings. If they don't, well, the index can't go up. It's just that simple. When you're at 41.4%, it's actually closer to 46% of the index is actually made up of tech now. So it's a huge amount. It's might as well call the S&P 500 NASDAQ 2, because it's becoming like that. Now, when we hit historic extremes, you're going to start to see, of course, historical stats. And this one here from Subutrade is an interesting one, which actually looks at, I think, some of Ed Yardini's works, which was an observation that when the S&P 500 is above the 200-day moving average, which is one of my favorite reads, you guys know I'm a big fan of this, and it goes 13% above it, you're generally looking at a little bit of weakness. And then, of course, in general, strength kind of continues on. So the good news is that even if we get a pullback here, which everyone is freaking out about, as we've long argued, the general rules are that probably a buyer is going to be. Because although there's an extreme high, yes, there is usually going to be a buyer behind, because that is what tends to happen. The second highest relative lows, we saw the Hindenburg-Omen obviously trigger last week. We wrote a newsletter about it and how we're not currently concerned, because you need to see a lot of clusters generally. It's an early sign, like a canary more so than an instant freak out kind of event. But this is the second highest relative low since 1957. We're starting to trigger a lot of these. And, of course, this is a concern. It shows weakness that's coming into the market. And coupled with that weakness, we start to see large trades and dark pulls. Now, Volume Leaders here has a couple of big ones. First up, IWV, which is, of course, the spy here. You can see there is a very large transaction, the second largest ever recorded on IWV. The last time we got a big one like this, we ended up rallying a lot, or, of course, selling a lot before that. So you can make up your mind whether this is a rally buy or a sell, but certainly a monster one coming in. And it's happening right around that $7.50 kind of area, which we'll talk about later on. TSM getting a monster dark pull in it as well. So clearly a bit of transactions going on there. Tesla just had the 19th largest transaction. Now, we have been bullish on Tesla over here because, of course, positive gamma and options. And we'll talk about that later. But still, big transaction happening here near the highs. So we have to make out whether it's accumulation or distribution. And probably most interestingly, the triple Qs, which is obviously the biggest NASDAQ ETF, gets a phantom print. And it's actually the largest phantom print ever. So this is a random print basically sitting at a price. And, of course, it hasn't triggered yet, but someone's interested. And what this suggests to me anyway, they can be nothing, of course, but when you get a big one like this, you're going to pay attention. If you're a technical analyst, of course, you're going to look over here on the left-hand side. And what are you going to say? Well, you're going to say, well, this is a pretty interesting and cool looking accumulation kind of level here. We've obviously seen previous accumulation break up. So that's going to become potentially demand. And then we have a phantom print sitting around the demand. So it certainly makes it very interesting point here at around that 600 on the Qs, which we'll look at later, which is, of course, if we now continue to fall, a key support to that level. So certainly a key area to be watching. We'll keep tracking that. Now let's go from the kind of negative side to the positive side. What have we got that actually looks good? Okay. We know leverage is massive. We know that the 2% drop, everyone's absolutely freaking out. I would hope that the community here at FX Evolution is not freaking out. You guys know my opinion on leverage, especially over the last couple of months has gone from thinking it's okay to souring on it because of the level of money that's going in from retail trades in particular. But we can see here, the PBOC has actually re-instigated QE and probably soon behind. That also can help support the markets during a fall like this. Consumer staples, also Nautilus Research doing a really cool chart here. And what they found is that consumer staples obviously has sucked this year. It has sucked. It has been bad and actually just found a new low. And you might think, well, that's terrifying and probably going to keep dropping down. Well, actually staples, remember, is meant to be a defensive sector and it has absolutely sucked, but it's just given us a very interesting read here. So what you can see is that consumer staples sometimes tends to do relatively well after this type of drop. Also, it turns out the S&P also does well. So you can see here, the gains might be even better, but yeah, the people that are feeling defensive, interesting level here for staples and something we'll probably start watching over the next coming days and weeks to see whether it is actually getting comparatively better ratio than the SPY. Because of course, if it is, then it could be a good asset or a good sector to be in. Let's also talk about Bitcoin. Now, of course, Charlie here over on X, if you want to give him a follow handle down here, you can see he has actually come up with some interesting levels. And this is just basically all of the big peaks to declines when it comes to, of course, Bitcoin. And you can see here that there are some epic ones that have gone through in history. And there are usually pullbacks of the 30 percent, which can happen still in a bull run. Now, obviously, when it starts to get over the 30 to 40 percent barrier, that's where things get a little bit scary, guys. That's where you're starting to talk about the big kahuna 80 percenters, which, of course, the end of the halving cycle and the full decline level. But we do have, of course, a level coming up soon, which we'll look at, that is very important for Bitcoin. So is this the garden variety pullback so far? Yes. Although it's getting all of the normal signs of people freaking out and absolutely running for the hills. Big six bank index, you can see here, you might think this is from Stephen Strasser over on X All-Star Charts. You might think, of course, the markets look really weak and they look terrible. But again, as we mentioned, most markets are actually making all time highs. Some have gone parabolic, which is worrying, but they are still technically all up. And this is actually the big six banks versus the SPY. Now, if you look at the entire banking sector, if you look at the regional banks, not so good. We've already talked about that. If you look at the big six banks, people are saying, oh, we go over here because deregulation is helping them. Plus, at least the general idea in the market is that they will buy the crappy banks if things go bad and get them at better prices. So people are still longing, let's say, quality credit versus, I guess, crappy credit, which is something there. Another thing we argued in our newsletter on the weekend, again, sign up and comment down below. Totally free, certainly worthwhile doing. Make sure to do it, guys. This is, of course, our earnings concept, which is, of course, if earnings are beating, especially in the big stocks, the top 10 particularly, how can you be saying that's the top of the market? It's very difficult to say that earnings or the market has topped out until these top 10 stocks and generally these types of trends start to dissipate. Usually, markets top off when earnings has already shown signs of topping off maybe one or two quarters before. So it actually usually takes a while for markets to top off. The other one is, could we get a pullback? Yes. Actually, the NASDAQ hits seven months up in a row. That usually brings a negative month. Only 20% of the time has it ever been bullish and it's crappy bullish after this. So again, it makes sense that November is going to be volatile like this. We didn't get the volatility in the normal months, August, September, October. So why couldn't November give it to us? But generally speaking, again, markets tend to rally upwards. And that's of course, in the bigger reads, when you have a very strong structure coming in, 95% of the time we continue the structure up. And you might say, well, that's only 95%, Tom. Look at this one, it's nothing. It's 0.74% down. So really the odds are currently, at least if you're looking at history, favorable. Another thing is that if you look at the analogs, yes, we sometimes do get a pullback here, but the real question is going to be what happens next year? Because that's actually where this market gets more volatile. And if you haven't subbed to this channel, definitely consider doing so because this is going to be crazy. I'm telling you, 2026 is going to be the year of the position base of the trader. It's going to be so volatile. It's a midterm year. It's got all sorts of things. Another thing to note about the old fear in crypto markets is we did start to see Bitcoin whales start to purchase again. I would probably expect this to be accelerating. Crypto whales tend to actually know what's going on and the retail traders don't know anything usually. So that could be interesting. And we'll be watching that one as we get more data figures. And of course we see the price action, price action number one, don't worry about Bitcoin whales, price action number one always. And we obviously have the big bull out there, which is Tom Lee. He's coming out now saying November rally could push towards 7,500. Hey, that's Heisenberg here saying something pretty funny. He said S&P 7,500 by the end of this month, but that's not the signal he says. The signal is that Tom Lee's hair is looking extremely crisp and well put together. Typically when his hair is put together this well, the conviction is strong AF. So there you go. An interesting point here in the markets where we've got Tom Lee going uber bullish. That's pretty bullish. I'm not that bullish, but hey, there we go. There's another way of looking at the markets. And obviously earnings have lived up to expectations. However, guess what? Market is selling off. Palantir, not bad, but ran into it by the rumor, sell the fact. AMD, something similar by the rumor, sell the fact. By the way, what AMD did to people that bought their graphics cards? I'm a little nerdy. Yeah. So if you haven't looked into it, they had the graphics cards that were selling up until last year. And they said, oh, we won't support these Yeah, right guys. Now I know that they've kind of gone back on that, but I tell you what, we're crappy business structure. Like seriously, these businesses just think they can get away with anything and it is crappy. So maybe they deserve to go down today. Either way though, guys, of course, it's still an intact trend. Now let's jump on over to the major things with the charts. First up, the S&P 500 hits the daily 20 moving average. It also just happens to hit a couple of other levels. So we'll just quickly load here. Oh, where am I going? We'll load here and then can VWAP off this low for a second. So you can see it. And of course we also have one that we can put down in this low, which triggers this 67.50. So 67.50 is a very important level. At the time of this recording, we're just sitting barely underneath it. This daily 20 is a key zone that we'll see whether it can hold. It comes in pretty negative because it closed on or near the low, which obviously is a negative sign when you're looking at markets. And we haven't hit that weekly 20 in a very long time. So that's going to come in at around 6,500 now. And this level is also going to be with a bunch of other VWAP levels. So you're going to see other VWAPs that sit there off certain lows, off certain gaps as well. People are going to have this one. There are a few things that people will do, but generally speaking, if we drop this level, it does look like the weekly 20 will come. And that is going to be a very interesting zone because we haven't really seen significant weakness or pullback since the Liberation Day lows, which means again, could we be looking at this type of thing? Why is that? Right, Carl, there we go. And you can see here that we've got this kind of market that could do something like this. That would be kind of good, really. I mean, it does need to take a breather at some point. So top of the trend line, where could we be going? Hey, maybe we break underneath, hit the weekly 20 finally. That would be key. Here are the options, high and low levels. Obviously, the weekly 20, or the weekly rejection here looks like a shooting star. So a lot of people are going to call that a top. But just remember, we've seen these types of things before. This candle alone is not that good. The reason is because it's just almost a coin flip style candle. Remember, you are trying to go against a very strong trend. So to do that, you've got to have a hell of a lot of conviction. Let's now have a look at the puts because there were no puts the last 24 hours. Now, all of a sudden, they're coming in. And lo and behold, guys, 67.50. I just clapped because we knew 67.50 would be stacked. Are you guys just trying to stack 67.50? What are you doing? Anyway, this market, yes, it's pretty predictable from the options level that everyone will go for. 67.00 is now livening up as well. And we'll have to watch and see whether we get another random strike, maybe a 66.00 strike or something starting to become big. Of course, we are potentially going to move into negative gamma, especially if we move well under 67.50. And that could trigger a bit of a waterfall style sell-off. So be careful of that. But the trend is still, of course, up. Now, Tesla, a little bit disappointing. Obviously, it can't hold up when markets are going down. That's just the way it is. 500 is still the most struck level. 435 now the put wall. So we're just above that $10, above that. Around here is where the support's been found. NVIDIA went down. It's obviously hit fair market value in our opinion. So it is difficult to read, but still trend is up generally. And IBIT, the big thing here is we went under 60. So you can see 60 is still the big level, but now 57 as well. So interesting strike there for IBIT. You can line that up with your Bitcoin price. And gold, well, 360, 360, 360 is the support, and we're getting closer to it. So daily 50 moving average. Let's see if we can get down to that zone. Let's now have a look at the warning indicators. We do see a little bit of bond action. The old spread widening is starting to happen again. Do we have problem zones such as 3.2 breakout? No. Should we therefore be worried? Probably not. Why would we bother to be worried if something hasn't happened? And then we go to other markets around the world and we say, okay, well, they've all gone up a lot. So these pullbacks don't look too scary. They're just kind of like pullbacks. ILF, Latin America, obviously the stock's 600. We've seen some bubbles, or at least some parabolic markets in Nikkei and the Korean market, those things are. It's scary over there, guys. That's why I don't usually look at those markets because I know how they trade. And it's high adrenaline. It's like playing crazy video game or something. And you're in a battle royale and you're the last three. And you know what it is. It's the heart's pumping, the heart's pumping, and then you get shot by a rocket. So you don't want that. And in this case, that is kind of the way those markets are trading. Be very careful if you're in those. They start move like 5%, 6% a day. That's probably going to happen for a little while. Meta, just another example of why you don't want to be BTFD when markets drop a lot, because when that happens, you don't have support. That is why you use technical analysis. And of course, patience, react, don't predict. We think that this gap could fill. That's because of the double-headed dragon head and shoulders, which obviously then pushes down. And if you have OCD, then you'll not like what I just did there on the chart. But you can see here, it's making a series of lower lows. The market is declining in meta. It doesn't like anything that isn't beating expectations. And in fact, I don't have the stat here, but as it turns out, if markets, if a stock is not beating expectations, they are brutalizing it this earnings season. So although we've had like an 85% beat rate, everything's fantastic. At the same time, you don't hit expectations. My goodness, they'll brutalize you. Dollar index, we'll give a clap for that. Why not? Because again, it's against the press. And as you guys know, we have been purely bullish it, and it continues up. And I guess that points towards 101.60. So it just shows you again, why you've got to think different. Price action number one, gold's declining. Yeah, it's down to this support of 39.30. Again, daily 50s around 38.60-ish. That's going to be interesting. And silver is declining as well. So nothing to worry about but certainly more along the lines of the data stats that we've shown before. Semiconductors is weakening. Again, it kind of completed the first flag kind of distance. So obviously that's something to keep in mind. And Tesla here, you can see has declined a little bit. So this is an interesting one because Tesla hit near those all-time highs, had a great weekly close. Again, it's still bullish on the charts, even with that decline. So as long as markets do rally back up, Tesla should hopefully be okay for now. Chinese markets declined a bit underneath the lows, down to Fib levels as well now. So this will be a very interesting level and we'll be of course focused in on what's going in there. And the NASDAQ 100, although it's dropped, remember before we talked about that level, let's have a look at the Qs so you guys can see here. And the level was around that 600. So what you can do here is you can grab a fixed range, chuck it through. You're going to see around 600 is the most struck level, no surprise. It also just happens to be the daily 50, no surprise that is also the key level. And that's probably going to time in very well with the weekly 20 as well. So I kind of like that for the markets. I don't know what's going to happen, none of us do, but if you've got powder dry and it gets down there, it could be a very, very interesting level to see whether there is a reaction from Wall Street to it. It also just happens to be where the Phantom print is, which is the largest one we've ever seen printed. So we obviously are going to talk about it. Let's now look and have a look at the Cryptoverse. So Solana comes down to a very heavy trade zone here around 150. Ethereum dropped through the lows when we load that chart up. Come on now, like the pennant kind of look on the Solana there and Ethereum obviously dropped to the middle of nowhere. And that's an interesting zone, but not really that interesting. And the main thing is, of course, Bitcoin. So Bitcoin dropped to this level. I'm sure a few of you had a dabble at 100. It's an interesting dollar cost average zone. I wouldn't mind for it to actually drop into the 96s, 95s. This is, in my opinion, kind of like a hidden demand that people aren't really talking about much. And the reaction here is going to be key. Obviously, if you're bullish, we're going to have to look for more structure. Otherwise, we're going to need it above these two levels here. And I guess good TA is kind of held true for now because again, 116 was too high. It couldn't break through it. The question now is going to be, is this the beginning of something worse? Because of course, in the crypto verse, the issue people have is when you put it out and you look at it, you could start saying this is a distribution pattern. And it certainly does look like one. So we dropped these levels. We're at the Scottie Pippen weekly 50. This is the Scottie Pippen moving average because remember Scottie Pippen knows about the weekly 50 moving average. And he has decided this is the glory. And obviously, he's not wrong that it's been pretty good in the past. So I'm very interested in this level. As I've said, and we've all talked about together, this is one of the most interesting charts right now because it truly is either a breaking of the halving cycle or the halving cycle will play out again. And you can make a case for both scenarios right now, the bear and the bull. And this is what makes it so interesting to be a trader and investor in markets. How are we going to find it? Usually price action. And probably in this case, Wall Street are going to show us the way. Guys, if you enjoyed today's video, please remember to subscribe, smash that like button, hit us up on X, follow me on LinkedIn as well. And of course, check out that weekly newsletter, pinned comment down below. And if you're interested in finding out more about replication trades, in fact, there have been quite a few decent shorts at the moment, obviously some good longs as well. It's all in that day trading masterclass, advanced class. And we also do some option classes as well. Thanks so much. You have a fantastic day, everybody. Bye for now. And remember to stay safe in these markets because leverage is everywhere. Everyone's doing it. And that's when you need to be the most careful. Bye for now.