【直播精選】王沪寧——習近平的化妝師（20251106第804期） #直播精選

王滬寧這個人 As for Wang Huning as a person, 不能單純的把他劃爲一個好人 you can’t simply label him as a good guy 還是一個壞人 or a bad guy. 他是有洞察力的人 He’s someone with real insight. 得到三朝元老的認可 普遍的接納 He’s been recognized and broadly accepted by the elders of three administrations. 這是很難得的事情 That’s something extremely rare. 在中共官場幾乎找不到這樣的先例 There’s almost no precedent for this in the CCP’s officialdom. 一直都處於核心中的核心 He’s always been at the very core of the core. 王滬寧年齡也不小了 Wang Huning himself is no longer young. 五五年的 今年70歲 Born in 1955, he’s 70 this year. 按照正常的情況下 Under normal circumstances, 65歲的時候他就應該要退了 he should have retired at 65. 但是他沒有退 But he didn’t step down. 還成爲了習近平最重要的幕僚 He even became Xi Jinping’s most important adviser. 而且現在在正國級的位置上 And he now holds a full state-leader rank. 十九大進入到正國級 進了常委 At the 19th Party Congress he rose to state-leader level and entered the Politburo Standing Committee. 二十大中共黨內排在第四號 At the 20th Party Congress he ranked fourth in the Party hierarchy. 所以王滬寧是值得我們來觀察 So Wang Huning is someone worth watching 值得我們來研究的 and worth studying closely. 他當年沒有上山下鄉 Back then, he never went “up to the mountains and down to the countryside.” 按照他的年齡 Given his age at the time, 他在上海當時應該上山下鄉的 he should have been sent down from Shanghai like others. 但是據說王滬寧的身體非常不好 But it’s said that his health was very poor. 小時候屬於體弱多病 As a child he was frail and often sick. 上山下鄉去幹活 If he’d gone to the countryside to do heavy labor, 可能把命都要丟掉 it might literally have cost him his life. 所以他父母 So his parents 到各方面去找一些關係 went everywhere pulling strings, 最後他沒有下鄉插隊 and in the end he wasn’t sent down to a village production team. 初中畢業之後 After junior high school, 就留在家裏自學看書 he stayed at home, self-studying and reading. 靠父母來養着 He was supported by his parents. 到了74年的時候 By 1974, 他因爲得到了一個工農兵學員的指標 he obtained a “worker-peasant-soldier student” quota, 推薦到華東師範學院的西語系學法語 and was recommended to the Western Languages Department at East China Normal College to study French. 那個時候王滬寧19歲 He was 19 years old at that time. 所以王滬寧算比較幸運的 So in that sense, Wang Huning was relatively lucky. 那個時候很多推薦的 Back then, many recommended students 都學的比方學農的學工的 were sent to study agriculture or engineering and the like, 但是他學的是外語 but he got to study foreign languages. 學法語肯定他會接觸到其他的語言 Studying French, he naturally came into contact with other languages too, 英語也好 including English 其他的語種也好 and possibly other languages. 據說王滬寧的英語也學得不錯 It’s said that his English is also quite good. 王滬寧3年之後他就畢業了 Three years later, Wang Huning graduated. 畢業之後本來可以進外交系統的 After graduation he could have entered the diplomatic service, 他沒進 but he chose not to. 他留在學校繼續的學習 He stayed on at the school to continue his studies. 到了78年恢復高考了之後 When the college entrance exam was reinstated in 1978, 他是首批考到復旦大學的學生 he was among the first batch of students admitted to Fudan University. 但是他考的不是本科 But what he took wasn’t the undergraduate exam. 他是考的復旦研究生 He sat the exam to enter Fudan as a graduate student. 他是直接成爲了 He went straight in as 當時復旦大學剛剛建立的 part of the then newly created 國際政治學專業的這研究生 international politics graduate program at Fudan. 他的導師是對馬克思的資本論 His advisor was Professor Chen Qiren, 頗有研究的教授陳其仁 who was quite accomplished in studying Marx’s *Das Kapital*. 王滬寧取得碩士學位之後 After Wang Huning obtained his master’s degree, 就留在了復旦大學 he stayed on at Fudan University. 因爲他當時的成績 Because both his academic record 或者是當時他的論文都非常之有分量 and his thesis at the time carried a lot of weight. 在上個世紀80年代 Back in the 1980s, 有真才實學的人在大學 people with real ability and learning, whether in universities 或者在社會上還是非常受歡迎的 or in broader society, were very much in demand. 包括學生也受歡迎 Such scholars were well regarded by students too. 在那個期間王滬寧是一個多產的學者 During that period, Wang Huning was a very prolific scholar. 在很多頂級的學術期刊 In many top academic journals, 還有大量的公開媒體上面 as well as a wide range of public media, 發表了很多有關政治科學方面 he published numerous pieces on political science 以及哲學方面的論述 and on philosophy. 所以到了80年代下半期的時候 So by the late 1980s, 也就是六四發生之前 that is, before the Tiananmen events, 他到美國去做訪問學者 he went to the United States as a visiting scholar. 就出了本美國反對美國這本書 That’s when he wrote the book *America Against America*. 當時在復旦大學 At that time at Fudan University, 作爲王滬寧這麼一個年輕的人 for someone as young as Wang Huning 能夠脫穎而出 to stand out like that 擔任復旦大學政治系的主任 and become head of the Political Science Department 還有法學院院長 as well as dean of the Law School, 這當然是需要有點真本事的 of course required genuine ability. 他當時有關政治體制改革 At the time, his writings on political-system reform 或者政治路徑選方面的一些文章啊 and on China’s choice of political path 還是得到了上海很多領導的讚賞的 won praise from many leaders in Shanghai. 這其中也就包括有曾慶紅 吳邦國 Among those leaders were Zeng Qinghong and Wu Bangguo, 他們後來把王滬寧介紹給了江澤民 who later introduced Wang Huning to Jiang Zemin. 在中共十三大之前 Before the CCP’s 13th Party Congress, 因爲王滬寧在政治學方面的造詣 because of Wang Huning’s depth in political science, 受到上海有關方面的領導的高度認同 he had already gained strong recognition from relevant Shanghai leaders. 有一次曾慶紅在春節茶話會後 On one occasion, after a Spring Festival tea gathering, Zeng Qinghong 跟王滬寧就政治民主化的進程 had a lengthy discussion with Wang Huning about the process of political democratization 政治體制改革的理論等等問題 and the theories of political-system reform and related issues. 進行了兩個多小時的談話 The conversation went on for more than two hours. 據說那次談話的氣氛非常熱烈 It’s said the atmosphere was very lively and engaged. 並且達成了一些共識 And they reached some points of consensus. 上個世紀80年代 In the 1980s, 尤其是趙紫陽擔任總書記的那幾年 especially during the years when Zhao Ziyang was General Secretary, 政治體制改革當時是炒的最兇的 political-system reform was the hottest topic of debate. 各個地方都在探索 Everywhere people were exploring 中國究竟 what kind of path China 走什麼樣的民主化的道路 should take toward democratization. 搞什麼樣的政治體制改革 What kind of political-system reform should China pursue? 王滬寧作爲復旦大學的教授 As a professor at Fudan University, Wang Huning’s work 他的論文 his academic papers 他的一些很多的文章 and his many articles 公開的文章 published openly in the media 就深受上海當時領導的認同 won strong approval from Shanghai’s leaders at the time. 當時主要是曾慶紅跟吳邦國這兩個人 The key figures were Zeng Qinghong and Wu Bangguo. 而當時在上海當書記的是江澤民 And the Party Secretary in Shanghai then was Jiang Zemin. 江澤民據說 It’s said that Jiang Zemin 也喜歡看王滬寧的一些文章 also liked reading some of Wang Huning’s articles. 而且到王滬寧 Later, when Wang Huning 後來調到中共中央政策研究室 was transferred to the CCP Central Policy Research Office 擔任政治組組長的時候 to head its politics group, 那個時候江澤民在他的講話中 Jiang Zemin would, in his speeches, 還經常大段大段的引用 frequently quote at length 王滬寧文章中的一些觀點 from Wang Huning’s published views. 讓王滬寧當時非常吃驚 This really surprised Wang at the time. 那個年代 Back in those years, 王滬寧能夠把 Wang Huning was able to take 政治學方面或者哲學方面 very abstruse concepts in political science or philosophy 非常深奧的東西 that were highly theoretical 他用很淺顯的大家都看得懂的語言 and explain them in plain, accessible language 他能夠表達出來 that everyone could understand. 這是王滬寧非常重要的一個特點 That was one of Wang Huning’s most important traits. 比如他當時出的比較政治分析 For example, his book *Comparative Political Analysis* at the time 就是非常有代表性的 was highly representative of this style. 他非常聰明而且有預見性 He was very smart and also forward-looking. 他說歷史告訴我們 He wrote that history tells us 人類正處在政治時代 humanity is living in a political age, 政治活動和政治關係 in which political activities and political relations 日益決定着人類各個政治共同體 increasingly determine the development of each political community 和人類全體的發展 and of humankind as a whole. 所以我們看到他爲習近平 So when we look at the “community of shared future for mankind” slogan 量身打造的人類命運共同體 that he tailored for Xi Jinping, 實際上在40多年前 we can see that more than forty years ago 他在政治比較分析裏面 in *Comparative Political Analysis* 就已經有過這方面的論述 he had already laid out similar ideas. 當然開始的時候 Of course, at the beginning, 說王滬寧是不願意離開復旦的 people say Wang Huning was reluctant to leave Fudan, 也不願意離離開學術界的 and didn’t want to leave academia at all. 但是到1995年的時候 But by 1995, 被吳邦國曾慶紅極力的說服 he was strongly persuaded by Wu Bangguo and Zeng Qinghong, 最後調到了中央政策研究室 and was finally transferred to the Central Policy Research Office. 中南海當時最紅的智囊 The hottest think-tank figure in Zhongnanhai at that time 是滕文生 was Teng Wensheng. 滕文生實際上是非常之左的 Teng Wensheng was in fact very far to the left. 他跟王滬寧的觀點 His views and Wang Huning’s views 應該還是有些區別的 should still have differed in quite a few respects. 滕文生在上個世紀80年代 By the 1980s, Teng Wensheng 他是已經靠邊站的 had already been sidelined from the center of power. 很多認識他的人都跟我談起過 Many people who know him have told me stories about him. 說他那個時候在中南海進進出出騎個單車 They said back then he’d ride a bicycle in and out of Zhongnanhai. 也沒人跟他搭理 Hardly anyone even acknowledged him. 他的日子那個時候非常不好過 Life was really tough for him at that time. 因爲在趙紫陽的時代他已經靠邊了 Because under Zhao Ziyang he had already been sidelined. 過去他據說是做過鄧力羣的祕書 It’s said he had previously served as Deng Liqun’s secretary. 江澤民到了北京之後 After Jiang Zemin arrived in Beijing, 迫於當時的政治氛圍 under pressure from the political climate at the time, 他就選了滕文生來做他的政策研究室主任 he picked Teng Wensheng to head his Policy Research Office. 而滕文生做過鄧力羣祕書的 And given Teng Wensheng had been Deng Liqun’s secretary, 筆桿子應該也是不錯的 his pen, his writing skills, were naturally quite good. 但是他非常左 But he was extremely left-leaning. 他也不是江澤民的人 He was never really Jiang Zemin’s own person. 所以說最後也就是在政策研究室主任 So in the end, his career basically stopped 這個位置上就結束了他的仕途 at the position of director of the Policy Research Office. 吳邦國當年從上海到了北京之後 When Wu Bangguo later moved from Shanghai to Beijing, 由於王滬寧遲遲的不願意到北京 because Wang Huning kept hesitating about coming to Beijing, 吳邦國多次在江澤民面前提起這件事情 Wu raised this with Jiang Zemin many times. 所以王滬寧是40歲的時候 So it was only when Wang Huning was forty 纔到政策研究室做政治組組長 that he finally came to the Policy Research Office as head of the politics group. 後來有很多的報道提到這件事情 Later on, a lot of reports mentioned this story. 說江澤民跟王滬寧第一次在北京見面的時候 They say when Jiang Zemin first met Wang in Beijing, 江澤民當時就跟他開玩笑說 Jiang joked with him, saying, 如果你再不來北京 “If you still don’t come to Beijing, 他說這一幫人都要跟我鬧翻了 this whole bunch of people are going to fall out with me.” 他說這一幫人主要是指 By “this bunch of people,” he mainly meant 曾慶紅吳邦國這批人 Zeng Qinghong, Wu Bangguo and the others. 王滬寧從上海進到北京之後 After Wang Huning came from Shanghai to Beijing, 他之所以一直沒有經受到 the reason he never really got hit 任何政治權力更新的衝擊 by each wave of power reshuffles, 就在於他不斷的給這幾代中共黨魁 was that he kept providing generation after generation of top Party leaders 提出新的理念提出新的思路 with new concepts and new lines of thinking. 這些人都離不開他 They all came to rely on him. 再加上王滬寧這個人沒什麼野心 On top of that, Wang Huning himself has little personal ambition. 據瞭解他的人是這樣說的 People who know him say this about him. 說他到了北京之後 They say once he arrived in Beijing, 就遠離了原來的社交圈子 he distanced himself from all his old social circles. 包括過去上海官場的學界的商界的 That included the Shanghai officialdom, academia, and business circles he’d known. 都不再有任何聯繫 He basically cut off contact with all of them. 可以說他就是孤身一人 You could say he was operating entirely on his own. 而且更重要的是他不插手任何工程項目 More importantly, he never meddled in any projects or contracts. 地方上的事情從來不過問 He never asked about local deals at all, 也不打招呼 nor did he make phone calls to pull strings. 當然也就不謀私利 So naturally, he wasn’t using power for personal gain. 還有也不插手地方上的人事 He also stayed out of local personnel matters, 也不安排不栽培親信 never placing or grooming his own protégés. 不推薦任何的官員 He didn’t recommend officials to anyone. 沒有在這些黨魁的面前 In front of these top Party bosses, he never showed 顯露出任何要向上面攀爬的野心 the slightest ambition to climb higher himself. 也不搞拉幫結派的小圈子 Nor did he build factions or form little cliques of his own. 有人說王滬寧讀的史書太多了 Some people say Wang Huning has read far too much history. 所以他非常知道官場的漩渦 So he understands very clearly the whirlpools of officialdom, 以及各種各樣的政治禁忌 and all kinds of political taboos, 尤其是中共官場的禁忌 especially the taboos inside the CCP system. 正是因爲他這些特徵 It’s precisely because of these traits 所以說他才能夠三朝不倒 that he’s managed to survive three administrations without falling. 風平浪靜走到了今天 He’s sailed calmly all the way to where he is today. 王滬寧從政 Wang Huning’s move into politics 在當時學界也好 had quite an impact at the time, in academia 政界也好 and in political circles alike. 還是有一些影響的 It definitely made waves. 之前我們知道中共 Before that, as we know, the CCP 很多都是用的一批技術官僚 relied heavily on a group of technocrats, 這些智囊都是從一開始慢慢培養起來的 and its “brains” were gradually cultivated from within. 比如說當年的胡喬木 鄧力羣 For example, people like Hu Qiaomu and Deng Liqun back then, 還有毛澤東後期的張春橋 姚文元 and later under Mao, Zhang Chunqiao and Yao Wenyuan. 這些理論基礎都還是不錯的 They all had pretty solid theoretical foundations. 他們首先是在黨內有一定的資歷之後 They first built up seniority in the Party, 然後纔開始搞這個理論研究的 and only then moved into theoretical work. 但王滬寧不一樣 But Wang Huning is different. 王滬寧本身就是個學者 He himself started out as a scholar. 他沒有任何的從政經歷 He had no prior experience as an official, 也沒有投身政治的背景 and no background of having thrown himself into politics. 在學界對他也有不同的看法 So in academia there were differing views on him. 尤其是他當時他提出來的這些東西 Especially because many of the ideas he put forward back then 可以給他貼上一個自由化標籤的 could easily earn him a “liberalization” label. 當時他在上海得到了特別的關照 Yet at that time he received special protection in Shanghai. 後來在江澤民後期的時候 Later, in Jiang Zemin’s later years, 王滬寧也給了一個像滕文生這樣的待遇 Wang Huning was given treatment similar to Teng Wensheng— 主席特別助理 serving as a special assistant to the “chairman”. 當然 Of course, 王滬寧對江澤民的最大的貢獻 Wang Huning’s biggest contribution to Jiang Zemin 就是三個代表 was the “Three Represents” theory. 三個代表究竟裏面包含着什麼樣的東西 What exactly is contained in the Three Represents, 我覺得即使到現在 I think even now 恐怕也沒多少人解釋得清楚 there are probably not many people who can explain it clearly. 有些通俗的說法 In more popular terms, 就是說中共所代表的是什麼 it’s about what the CCP claims to represent. 不僅是代表中共體制內的 It doesn’t just represent those inside the Party-state system, 還代表了中共體制外的 but also forces outside that system— 包括今後商界的學界的 including, going forward, people from business, academia, 還有各種各樣的 and all sorts of other 界別的都可以進到 sectors who could be brought into 黨的組織機構裏面來 the Party’s organizational structure. 都可以成爲黨的重要的組成部分 They could all become important components of the Party. 所江澤民的時期公開的說 So in Jiang Zemin’s time it was openly stated 要讓民營企業家入黨 that private entrepreneurs should be allowed to join the Party 要成爲黨的組成部分 and become part of it. 就從那個時候開始的 That all started from that period. 而且更重要的是 And what’s even more important is… 王滬寧參與了中共黨內的 Wang Huning has taken part in drafting 各種各樣重要文件的起草 all kinds of major internal Party documents. 到江澤民的後期 By Jiang Zemin’s later years, 也就是江澤民馬上要交班的時候 when Jiang was about to hand over power, 王滬寧才成爲中央委員 Wang Huning finally became a Central Committee member. 胡錦濤上任之後 After Hu Jintao took office, 王滬寧才正式的出任了政研室主任 Wang Huning formally became director of the Policy Research Office. 在這個之前他一直還是副主任 Before that, he had always been the deputy director, 在江澤民時期一直還是副主任 and throughout Jiang Zemin’s time he stayed at deputy level. 所以到了2003年 So when it came to 2003, 胡溫上來以後 after the Hu–Wen team came to power, 滕文生就轉到了中央文獻研究室去做主任了 Teng Wensheng was moved over to head the Party Literature Research Office, 中央政策研究室就由王滬寧來主導了 and the Central Policy Research Office came under Wang Huning’s lead. 王滬寧主導給胡錦濤 Under Wang’s guidance, for Hu Jintao 就提出了一個科學發展觀 they crafted the “Scientific Outlook on Development”. 包括那個時候耳熟能詳的和諧社會 That included the then-familiar slogan of a “Harmonious Society”. 所以在胡溫時期 So in the Hu–Wen era, 他因爲針對胡溫的想法 because he tailored concepts to Hu and Wen’s thinking, 出了一個新的東西科學發展觀 he produced this new line, the Scientific Outlook on Development, 和諧社會 and the idea of a Harmonious Society. 和諧社會啊我們過去 As for “harmonious society”, we’ve often 多次的跟大家提到過 explained to everyone what it meant. 那就是和諧兩個字 Those two characters, “he xie” (harmony), 就是人長嘴巴是要說話的 basically mean people have a mouth so they can speak, 人長嘴巴是要吃飯的 and a mouth so they can eat. 把這兩樣問題都解決了 If you sort out these two basic needs, 這個社會就和諧了 society will naturally be “harmonious”. 這個社會也就是符合 And such a society then fits 當時他提出的科學發展觀 the “scientific development” line he put forward at the time. 所以在胡溫時期 So during the Hu–Wen years, 我覺得是自上個世紀80年代之後 I think it was, since the 1980s, 言論空間稍微寬鬆的時期 a comparatively more relaxed period for public expression. 有關政治歷史方面的反思的書籍 Books reflecting critically on political and historical issues 也都是在胡溫時期出版發行的 were mostly published and circulated in the Hu–Wen era. 更重要的是 More importantly, 開放了當時的重要檔案 a number of key historical archives were opened up. 因爲過去中國很多的歷史檔案 Because in the past, many Chinese historical archives 是不對學者開放的 were not accessible to researchers at all. 但是在胡溫時期開放了很多的重要檔案 But under Hu and Wen, many major archives were declassified. 包括58年的大躍進 Including those on the 1958 Great Leap Forward, 58年的反右 the 1958 Anti-Rightist campaign, 58年的大饑荒餓死幾千萬人的事情 and the Great Famine that killed tens of millions. 都是在那個期間對外開放的 These materials were opened up during that period. 包括六四的有些檔案也是有部分的開放 Even some files related to June Fourth saw partial disclosure. 但是這樣的時間也是好景不長 But that window didn’t stay open for long. 在江澤民當時把權力移交給胡錦濤之後 After Jiang Zemin formally handed power over to Hu Jintao, 王滬寧不僅沒有邊緣化 Wang Huning was not sidelined at all; 而且成爲了中央書記處書記 instead, he became a Secretary of the Secretariat. 往權力中心實際上再靠近了 That move brought him even closer to the very core of power. 更重要的他後來還成爲了政治局委員 More importantly, he later rose further to become a Politburo member. 當時政治局委員是25個人 Back then there were 25 members of the Politburo. 到十九大的時候 By the time of the 19th Party Congress, 王滬寧成爲了七常委之一 Wang Huning had become one of the seven Standing Committee members. 這遠遠的超出了 This went far beyond 他當時從上海到北京時的這樣的預想 what he’d imagined when he first moved from Shanghai to Beijing. 因爲在十九大之前 Because before the 19th Congress, 王滬寧自己都不知道能不能夠成爲常委 even Wang Huning himself wasn’t sure he’d make it into the Standing Committee. 他沒有把握 He had no real confidence about it. 我記得當時跟了他很多年的祕書 I remember his longtime secretary, 都已經跟他在河北找好了一個地方 who had followed him for many years, had already helped him find a place in Hebei. 因爲當時按照他的年齡 Because, judging from his age at the time, 王滬寧覺得自己可能會挪到人大或者是政協 Wang thought he’d probably be shifted to the NPC or the CPPCC, 去擔任一個副國級的領導人 to serve as a leader at the vice–national level. 因爲以往政策研究室主任 After all, no previous head of the Policy Research Office 沒有進到常委的 had ever entered the Standing Committee. 所以他把祕書都已經做了安排了 So he’d already made follow-up plans for his secretary. 但是在十九大之前 But shortly before the 19th Congress, 正式人選敲定了之後 once the final list of candidates was settled, 他也急急忙忙的 he hurriedly 把原來那個祕書又叫回來了 called that original secretary back. 他知道習近平已經把他留下來了 That’s when he knew Xi Jinping had decided to keep him on, 而且讓他繼續擔任非常重要的角色 and to let him go on playing a very important role. 接了當時劉雲山的職務 He then took over Liu Yunshan’s portfolio, 劉雲山當時是黨內管意識形態 as Liu had been in charge of ideology 管黨建的常委 and party-building within the Standing Committee. 所以王滬寧後來就接了劉雲山的職務 So later Wang Huning succeeded Liu Yunshan in that role. 到了二十大 By the 20th Party Congress, 他又從第5號再往前挪 his ranking moved up again from number five, 挪成了全國政協主席 and he became chairman of the CPPCC National Committee, 接了汪洋這個位置 taking over Wang Yang’s position. 當然他之所以能夠三朝不倒 Of course, the reason he’s survived three administrations in a row 除了剛纔講的這些之外 aside from everything we’ve just talked about, 他還是有幾把刷子的 is also that he genuinely has some real skills. 除了江澤民的三個代表 Beyond crafting Jiang Zemin’s “Three Represents”, 胡錦濤的科學發展觀 and Hu Jintao’s “Scientific Outlook on Development”, 在習近平的初期 in Xi Jinping’s early years in power, 他也是根據習近平的喜好 he also tailored things closely to Xi’s preferences 他不斷的跟習近平在出主意 and kept feeding Xi new ideas. 剛剛開始上任的時候 Right after Xi first took office, 是爲習近平打造的中國夢 it was Wang who coined the “Chinese Dream” for him. 但是這個中國夢 But this so-called Chinese Dream 後來成爲人們譏笑嘲諷的詞語 later became a phrase people mocked and sneered at, 因爲遲遲沒有中國夢出現 because no one ever actually saw that “dream” materialize, 而且這個中國夢好像離中國人越來越遠 and it seemed to drift further and further away from ordinary Chinese. 所以後來 So later on 他就爲他搞出了一系列的新思想 he designed a whole series of “new ideas” for Xi instead. 當然這個新思想就包羅萬象了 And those “new ideas” tried to cover just about everything. 他爲什麼從中國夢要搞新思想 As for why he shifted from the Chinese Dream to all these new theories, 那也是審時度勢 that too was a case of reading the mood and adjusting to the times. 因爲剛開始的時候 Because at the very beginning… 他不敢提新思想的 At first he didn’t dare talk about any “new thought.” 因爲在中共歷史上 Because in CCP history, 只有毛澤東有思想 only Mao Zedong was ever said to have “Thought.” 鄧小平都只有理論 Deng Xiaoping was only credited with “Theory.” 江澤民就是三個代表 Jiang Zemin just had the “Three Represents.” 胡錦濤是科學發展觀 Hu Jintao had the “Scientific Outlook on Development.” 都是不能沾理論和思想的 None of those could be labeled as “Theory” or “Thought” again. 你沾理論和思想 If you touch those words “Theory” or “Thought,” 那就是要超越毛澤東或者超越鄧小平了 it implies you’re trying to surpass Mao or Deng. 所以他不敢碰 So he didn’t dare go near that at first. 他是看到 What changed was that he saw 習近平通過第一任反腐 Xi Jinping, in his first term, using the anti-corruption drive 把江胡的人馬都幹掉了 to take down most of Jiang’s and Hu’s people. 所以他及時調整他的理論戰略 So he promptly adjusted his theoretical strategy. 所以拋出了一個新思想 That’s when he rolled out this notion of a “new thought.” 當然他這個新思想後面也掛了很長一串 Of course, that “new thought” comes with a very long tail of qualifiers, 不是像毛澤東思想一樣的 not as short and punchy as “Mao Zedong Thought.” 如果直接的說習近平思想 If you just called it “Xi Jinping Thought” outright, 那恐怕要受到黨內的各種各樣的反對 you’d probably run into all kinds of pushback inside the Party. 所以他後面加了一長串的定語 So he stuck a long string of modifiers on the back, 什麼新時代的什麼什麼這樣的思想 like “Thought on Such-and-Such in the New Era,” and so on. 但是隻要是有思想 But as long as the word “Thought” is there, 慢慢慢慢的 over time, 就會把中間的部分拋掉 the middle bits will slowly get dropped. 你去看現在官方的媒體 If you look at official media now, 在報道這件事情上面 when they talk about this, 包括這些高官講話的時候 including in senior officials’ speeches, 常常把中間的東西拋掉了 they often just skip the middle wording. 我不認爲 I don’t think 他們是不小心拋掉的 they’re dropping it by accident. 而是有意而爲之 It’s deliberate. 或者是已經得到授權 Or at least it’s already been green-lit. 沒有得到習近平的點頭 Without Xi’s personal nod, 我相信這些人 I don’t believe these people 不敢輕易的拋出這個東西來 would dare to simplify the wording like that. 就包括當年慄戰書 Take Li Zhanshu back then, for example, 首先喊出定於一尊 he was the first to shout out “establishing one ultimate authority.” 他事先應該是得到了習近平的認可 He must have had Xi’s approval in advance 他纔敢公開的喊出來 before daring to say it in public. 或者是習近平通過他的嘴 Or it could be Xi using his mouth 你先喊出來試試看 to float the slogan first and test the waters. 如果沒什麼不好的反應 If there’s no big backlash, 那麼再全面的去推廣 then they can roll it out across the board. 所以王滬寧是不斷的揣摩這些黨魁 So Wang Huning keeps studying these party bosses, 揣摩這些中共的領導人 constantly trying to read the minds of CCP leaders, 根據他們的喜好 and, based on what they like, 然後不斷推出自己的那套東西 he continuously rolls out his own new packages for them. 王滬寧他是不輕易露出自己的鋒芒的 Wang himself rarely shows his sharp edges in public. 而且任何時候都是很低調 He stays low-key at all times 退到幕後 and keeps to the background. 爲他們出謀劃策 He just thinks for them and offers strategies from behind the scenes. 不把功勞攬在自己的身上 He never tries to claim the credit for himself. 這是王滬寧受到重用的最重要的原因 This is the biggest reason Wang Huning keeps getting heavily relied on. 原本習近平要用他 Strictly speaking, when Xi Jinping came in he didn’t have to use him. 他是完全是江澤民當時欣賞的人 Wang was very much someone Jiang Zemin appreciated and promoted. 可以不用他的 Xi could perfectly well have sidelined him. 但是習近平要用他 But Xi still chose to keep him on. 一方面的知道王滬寧這個人沒有圈子 One reason is that Xi knows Wang has no faction of his own. 至少在黨內他沒有自己的影響力 At least within the Party, he doesn’t have an independent power base. 他不像其他的官員有自己的人馬 Unlike many other officials, he doesn’t have his own network of protégés. 或者是有自己的一幫親戚 Nor does he have a whole clan of relatives in the system. 這種人習近平是最害怕最提防的 That sort of thing is exactly what Xi fears and guards against most. 但是王滬寧身邊的就是幾個 But around Wang Huning you only see a few 跟他們出謀劃策的秀才 bookish aides helping him draft ideas and talking points. 他不可能有謀反的動機 He’s basically impossible to imagine as someone plotting a coup. 所以他留下了 So Xi kept him. 並且是重點栽培了王滬寧 And not just kept him, but made a point of grooming him. 王滬寧現在70歲了還在常委的位置上 Wang is 70 now and still sits on the Politburo Standing Committee. 尤其是在二十大上主席臺上那一幕 And that scene on the rostrum at the 20th Party Congress in particular— 我相信只要是看過當時 I think anyone who watched what happened 胡錦濤被押下去的那一幕的人 when Hu Jintao was escorted off the stage 都非常清楚 will have seen this very clearly: 王滬寧這個人老謀深算 Wang Huning is a deeply calculating, seasoned operator. 什麼原因呢 Why do I say that? 當時胡錦濤要被押下去過程中 When Hu was being taken away, 坐在胡錦濤身邊的慄戰書 Li Zhanshu, who was sitting right next to him, 可以說當時誠惶誠恐 looked utterly panicked and at a loss. 不知道該怎麼來處理 He clearly didn’t know how to react. 急得滿頭大汗 He was sweating with anxiety. 他不時的想站起來 He kept trying to get up, 或者想扶一下胡錦濤 to steady Hu Jintao a bit, 或者想幫一下胡錦濤拿點東西 or help him pick up his papers, 或者是扶他走一程 or at least walk him a few steps. 但是王滬寧察言觀色幾十年 But Wang Huning has been reading faces and moods for decades, 陪伴着那些中共黨魁 shadowing one CCP top leader after another. 他非常清楚 He knew perfectly well 那一刻只要是慄戰書做錯了一步 that if Li Zhanshu made even one wrong move at that moment, 那麼慄戰書的政治生命可能也就完結了 Li’s political career could be finished on the spot. 所以我們看到 That’s why we saw 王滬寧在一旁死死的拽住慄戰書的衣角 Wang Huning sitting there clutching the corner of Li Zhanshu’s jacket, 就不讓他站起來 not letting him stand up. 這說明當時的一幕 This shows that, in that moment, 慄戰書都是沒有心理準備的 Li Zhanshu himself had no mental preparation at all. 儘管二十大調換名單 Even though the personnel reshuffle list for the 20th Congress 慄戰書事先是知道的 was something Li had been briefed on in advance, 當然他在應對這種緊急情況的時候 when it came to handling that kind of sudden situation, 特別是這種關鍵時刻 especially at such a critical moment, 他遠不如王滬寧那麼熟練 he was nowhere near as practiced as Wang Huning. 那麼老奸巨猾 He didn’t have Wang’s level of crafty experience. 所以我們看到這一點 That’s the contrast you can clearly see there. 王滬寧走到今天 Wang Huning has made it to where he is today. 他不僅僅能夠爲他們出謀劃策 He not only provides them with strategies and ideas, 更重要的是他老謀深算 more importantly, he is shrewd and calculating. 他既能夠保全自己 He can both protect himself 也能夠保全自己的政治同盟 and shield his own political allies. 你想想這麼一個喜怒不形於色的人 Think about it: someone who never shows joy or anger on his face 在中共的高層政壇成爲常青樹 has become a perennial figure at the very top of CCP politics. 沒有點本事是做不到的 You don’t pull that off without real ability. 如果只是一個單純下跪的奴才 If he were just a simple kneeling flunky, 恐怕都不可能 it would be almost impossible 讓三個主子這麼喜歡這麼放心 for three different bosses to like him so much and trust him so completely. 這種情況是非常罕見的 That kind of situation is extremely rare. 王滬寧當然過去他的經歷也是非常重要的 Of course, Wang Huning’s past experiences are also crucial here. 因爲在文革期間 Because during the Cultural Revolution, 他雖然沒有上山下鄉 although he didn’t go “up to the mountains and down to the countryside,” 但是他目睹了中國那個時代 he personally witnessed, in that era of China, 人們所經歷的苦難 the suffering ordinary people went through. 而且當時他在華東師範大學 And at that time he was at East China Normal University, 學的是外語 studying foreign languages. 77年的時候當時王滬寧已經上班了 By 1977, Wang Huning was already working, 在上海出版局做一個普通的幹部 serving as an ordinary staffer at the Shanghai Publishing Bureau, 搞翻譯 doing translation work. 到了78年恢復高考制度 When the college entrance exam was restored in 1978, 他才考到復旦大學的國際政治系 that’s when he tested into the international politics department at Fudan University. 王滬寧之所以後來能夠到今天 The reason Wang Huning has managed to come this far, 還能夠有這樣的仕途 and still enjoy such a political career today, 也取決於他精準的觀察 also lies in his extremely sharp powers of observation. 他80年代在美國 In the 1980s he spent time in the United States— 不過一年多的時間 barely more than a year— 他就看到了美國的問題 and he had already spotted America’s problems. 他認爲美國至少在當時看來 In his view, at least judging from that time, 他說你要想通過軍事的手段來打垮美國 if you want to bring down the U.S. by military means, 或者是擊敗美國 to defeat it purely on the battlefield, 可能性不是很大 the odds are not very high. 但是美國最大的問題 But America’s biggest problem 它內部的分裂 is its internal division, 它內部價值觀的扭曲 its distorted values from within— 這是可以利用的 and that is something you can exploit. 我相信今天中國對美的政策 I’m convinced that today’s Chinese policy toward the U.S. 跟王滬寧的出謀劃策 is closely tied to Wang Huning’s input and advice, 跟王滬寧早期對美國的認知 and to his early understanding of the United States. 有很大的關係 The connection there is very strong. 所以像王滬寧這樣的一個人 So someone like Wang Huning 還繼續在中共政壇上發揮他的重要作用 is still playing an important role on the Chinese political stage. 尤其是我們看到二十大的政府工作報告啊 Especially if you look at the government work report for the 20th Party Congress, 二十大當時全會的報告 the main report delivered at that Congress— 王滬寧擔任起草小組的第一副組長 Wang Huning served as the first deputy head of the drafting group. 本來按照正常的情況 Under normal circumstances, 像王滬寧都已經不再管這個事情了 someone at his rank wouldn’t still be handling that kind of work. 但是各種各樣的大小文件 Yet he’s still deeply involved in documents both big and small. 都還是由王滬寧在主導 And it is still Wang Huning who is taking the lead on all of them. 這一方面就是顯示王滬寧有非常重要的一面 This alone shows just how central and important a role he plays. 還有一個 There’s another point. 他最能夠揣摩習近平的心理 He is better than anyone at reading Xi Jinping’s mind. 他知道習近平想要什麼東西 He knows exactly what Xi wants. 比如當初他給習近平開書單 For example, back then he drew up reading lists for Xi. 給習近平準備各種各樣的回答問題的小本本 He also prepared little notebooks for Xi with answers to all kinds of questions. 這都是王滬寧察言觀色搞出來的這些東西 All of this came from Wang Huning’s talent for watching and adapting to what leaders want. 這馬屁拍的很準 His flattery lands exactly where it should. 而且去年三中全會的公報起草 What’s more, the drafting of last year’s Third Plenum communiqué 也是王滬寧擔任的第一副組長 was also led by Wang Huning as the first deputy head. 這個第一副組長不是蔡奇 That first deputy was not Cai Qi— 還是王滬寧 it was still Wang Huning. 王滬寧現在已經是政協主席了 Wang Huning is already Chairman of the CPPCC now, 按道理這些工作都應該由蔡奇去搞了 and in theory this kind of work should now fall to Cai Qi. 但是習近平還是沒有把這件事情交到蔡奇的手上 But Xi still hasn’t entrusted these tasks to Cai Qi. 這說明蔡奇到現在爲止 This shows that up to now, Cai Qi, 儘管是管黨建 管意識形態 although he oversees party-building and ideology, 但是在中央全會的文件上起草上面 still doesn’t hold the pen 還是王滬寧在發揮主導的作用 when it comes to drafting key Central Committee documents—Wang Huning does. 當然了到2027年的時候 Of course, by 2027, 王滬寧已經72歲了 Wang Huning will already be 72. 會不會跟習近平同時留任 Whether he will stay on together with Xi Jinping 我們還要繼續觀察 is something we’ll have to keep watching.