Why Everyone Is Quitting Watches

Over the past five years, the watch industry has gone through one of the most dramatic transformations since it began. Incredible exposure on this niche hobby promised growth and opportunity, but it devolved into something else entirely. Investment purchases, instant flipping, fraudulent auctions and ridiculous hype collaborations led to a huge spike in watch pricing that was never going to be sustainable. Now people are selling their collections, thinning the numbers and backing away from watch collecting. Today I want to understand why people collect watches in the first place, what happened during the boom, why people are now leaving the fold and whether or not it's ultimately good or bad for those of us left behind. For the longest time, watch collecting didn't really exist outside of a few very elite people. When watches were worn in the pocket, they were vastly expensive and so one was quite enough to keep the time with. As well as being decorative considerations, pocket watches were the primary method for portably telling the time and the limited availability of these devices also meant a limited variety in styling. Gold cases, white dials, black printed markers and black hands. If you collected watches, it was likely for one of two reasons. One, you were a member of royalty or perhaps some other dignitary. It was not uncommon for kings and queens to be gifted watches by visiting ambassadors and many royal courts were attended by a royal watchmaker who would endeavour to bring more technically and artistically impressive works to their sovereign. The other reason to collect watches was for scientific purposes. From the watchmakers that made them through to the physicists, astronomers, engineers and explorers who used them, there was a place for several watches in the homes of people who needed their various functions. Specialised watches with chronographs, tachymeters, telemeters or astronomical complications proved invaluable in the early days of science. Even with the introduction of the wristwatch at the turn of the 20th century, watch collecting didn't really exist. Thinking about watches from the context of the period, they were equivalent to the iPhone today. Perhaps one day people will collect vintage smartphones but as of right now, one is typically enough and an upgrade sees the old phone relegated to ebay. As one of the brands spearheading a shift to wristwatches, Rolex very much painted a picturesque ideal of every professional having one watch that could handle everything rather than multiple. A single watch that could withstand dust, vibration and water, that was readable in any conditions, specialised to accommodate whichever profession its owner so happened to employ. So a diver would have a dive watch, a pilot would have a pilot's watch, a driver a driver's watch and so on. This was an era where a single skill set could last an entire career. But that, like the watches themselves, was to change. Yes, there were still wealthy magnates who collected and commissioned highly complicated pocket watches, but these eccentric individuals could be numbered on one hand. Henry Graves famously commissioned the most complicated watch ever made from Patek Philippe, a so-called super complication with 24 functions. For the average person, however, one watch was enough since they cost a not insignificant amount and, in most cases, were built to last. Similar to the everlasting nature of Edison's lightbulb, the industry needed to figure out how to sell more than one watch to every individual. The answer came, for many watch brands, without much choice. Technological advancements in computing, and in particular the integrated circuit, meant that the old-fashioned mechanical wristwatch no longer had a home in contemporary timekeeping. A decade prior, however, and Rolex was already contemplating a solution. The appointment of a new managing director after the death of founder Hans Wilsdorf prompted a different outlook to the Rolex customer. Originally a company whose aim was to sell one watch to every professional, the vision was refocused to sell several watches to just a privileged few. Rolex, in its association with high-achieving professionals, had earned a reputation as a status watch, owned by celebrities, pioneers and world leaders alike. The new managing director noticed something in particular. Gold was closely attributed to status and success. This is, of course, no new observation, with the tombs of noblemen swamped with gold artifacts since as early as 6,000 years ago. But in the context of the 1960s, there was a different outlook. Austerity following the world wars and great depression had reduced lavish gold pocket watches to small reserved wristwatches. With stainless steel only just invented, gold was still used for corrosion resistance. The following generation's counterculture rejected the stuffy suits and small gold watches of their parents, choosing t-shirts, jeans and steel sports watches instead as a casual realignment of the status quo. But inevitably, that generation would age and achieve success of its own, and success is best enjoyed with a reward. Rolex trialled several new models in gold, bringing new unorthodox designs with the King Midas and Texano. But ultimately, it was those steel sports watches, but now in steel and gold and even completely in solid gold, that ended up capturing the attention of the wealthy elite. A gold sports Rolex became emblematic of the rise from a stainless steel wearing professional, to an entrepreneurial success. This aligned with the rise of excess in the 1980s, where the gold Rolex became the poster child for self-made success and the American dream. Rolex were one of the lucky ones that headed off the impact of quartz before it took a stranglehold of the industry. Many others were less fortunate. A perhaps unexpected side effect of this quantum shift in watchmaking technology, however, was to be found in Italy in the 1970s. The home of style and elegance, it also became the origin of a subculture that rejected quartz technology, and prized mechanical for its history, beauty and character instead. It was the emerging Italian collector market that brought vintage Rolex, Patek Philippe and Panerai to fame at auction, buying up rare and untouched examples of those early watches that would go on to define the brands. It was the Italian collector market that brought momentum to Audemars Piguet's wild idea of styling a steel sports watch with hard angles and pricing it above its gold complications. The Italian collector market even revived the Reverso, encouraging an ailing Jaeger LeCoultre to reverse engineer the complex case design, from long forgotten spare parts. With the recession of the early 90s, it was the Italians that kept Rolex significant into a new decade. As lovers of all things artistic and significant, the Japanese collector market followed, with the two nations becoming entwined in their love for the rare and exquisite. Into the 1990s, this established a benchmark for reserved taste and elegant design. And then the 2000s happened. As with the 80s, a global boom fuelled a rise in wealth, especially in nations like Russia and China. A statement of success was no longer enough to be heard. With rising celebrity culture as well, wealth was to be shouted from the rooftops. With it came large, bold, brash watch designs, and the amassing of watch collections not just for cultural and artistic appreciation, but as an outward display of excess. Another global recession tempered this excess, but ultimately the genie was out of the bottle, and wristwatches were irrevocably linked to a new kind of status. Where achievement was once measured in business success and ultimately cold hard cash, we had entered a new era, celebrity obsession. Attention was the new currency, and social media was just arriving on the scene to help earn it. And how better to grab social media attention than by showing off an incredibly lavish lifestyle, seemingly through low effort means. Alongside this social change was another, quieter technological shift, CNC machining. The introduction of microprocessors opened up the possibilities of machining capability with greater precision, speed and autonomy than ever before, and the 2000s saw a marked growth in these capabilities. Multi-axis, micron accuracy machines could produce what had once taken hours in mere minutes. With rising technological capability following on in China, it wasn't long before it became even cheaper than ever, which created a new segment in the industry, the affordable, but still high quality wristwatch. It was now possible to make bargain watches, which was just as well because rising prices of once attainable brands thanks to a runaway economy and luxury inflation had moved many of the original aspirational brands out of reach. This new collector was able to enjoy many multiples of watches in their collection, of many different styles and types, for the same price or even less than a single Rolex. It's about here we arrive at Covid. Free time, spare cash and no outside meant a refocus on hobbies across the globe. It didn't matter how niche a niche was, material shortages caused by the war in Ukraine and increased demand from bored people looking for something to distract themselves from the nightmarish situation drove up prices across the board. Watches didn't get away with it. In the meantime, that original collector market that had hoovered up vintage 50s Rolex in the 1990s had moved on to the next decades of watches, the 60s and 70s. Those Gerald Genter designed pieces like the Royal Oak and Nautilus became the new focus and this spotlight on rising prices on the vintage market had a trickle down effect to more contemporary models, creating waitlists for new examples of these once very unpopular pieces. Where prices on the secondary market had been as low as sub $10,000, demand was driving them well above retail. These three scenarios, Covid, the rising demand for integrated Gerald Genter watches and the social media virality of easy wealth caused a perfect storm of investment potential that saw lucky buyers doubling or even tripling their spend right out of the door. This was at the same time as the Bitcoin boom and coupled with the aspirational get rich quick lifestyle perpetuated on social media sparked a rush of demand from newcomers to watch collecting for the hottest watches in town. But it didn't stop there. With the inevitable unavailability of those most sought after watches, many similar pieces ended up catching some collateral investment potential. The Daytona, since its late 80s shake up, has always been a hard watch to come by. Rolex has managed supply and demand very carefully as a testbed for a new era of luxury, where high demand and low availability builds desire. But they hadn't considered this in the context of Covid and, before long, there wasn't a single model in the Rolex line up that couldn't be instantly flipped for profit. Of course, as history demonstrates time and time again, vast, rapid growth is never sustainable and, again, this was compounded through rising interest rates, meaning less access to cheap money, the Bitcoin crash and a decrease in demand across the board as post-Covid normality eventually resumed. There are only so many degrees of separation that collateral investment potential can sustain before it simply becomes pure, unadulterated speculation. And from there, it's a downward spiral. Less demand increases availability, which reduces market values, which in turn further reduces demand. The decline of high market prices has turned off many would-be buyers of these ultimately very expensive items now they're not gaining value on the secondary market, like they were previously. With only blue dial Royal Oaks going above RRP and the steel Nautilus replaced with a much more expensive white gold version, the ease of turning a large profit on a relatively small investment is gone. A blue dial Royal Oak or a white gold Nautilus require a lot of additional spend with the brand to get an allocation, an amount that is inevitably more than the market difference of just buying one pre-owned. It's perhaps no surprise that the market appears to have levelled out at the place it would have ended up if Covid had never happened. A simple extrapolation of pre-Covid data lands us at the point we're at now, a natural equilibrium of supply versus demand. Where many long-time collectors had hoped to see prices dip even further, of course there's always going to be a point at which the increase in availability encourages a renewed interest in purchasing. Where a Submariner commanded years of waiting not half a decade ago, being able to receive one in less than six months is going to encourage buyers put off by the Covid spike to re-enter their local boutiques. All in all, it means something of a return to normality. Omega is back to discounting watches to get people to buy. There's no need to form an intimate and expensive relationship with your Rolex dealer to just purchase an Oyster Perpetual. The waitlist for a Nautilus can be measured in realistic units of time rather than being handed down through generations. And affordable watches are more plentiful than they've ever been. Brands that measured their success based on pre-Covid metrics continue to enjoy sustainable growth year on year, whereas those that treated that financial rollercoaster ride as the new normal are struggling to accommodate their misjudged scaling. It also means that investment grade collectors who bought into the hype through Covid are leaving the game, selling their watches and moving on to something else. For many who bought at the peak, they're now selling at what will likely be a low point. As is typical with many speculative investors jumping on a bandwagon, the goal of buying low and selling high ends up as quite the reverse. Of course, they could retain those watches until they inevitably break even but based on trends over the decades that ignore Covid, that will likely take a decade or two more and that's a lot of capital tied up just to break even. Combine all of this together and what results is more choice on the pre-owned market than ever before, so it's no surprise it's catching up to the value of the new market. It means that if you'd been holding out to buy something like a Rolex because you were waiting for the market to collapse to its lowest, we're here. It's a detail that's not gone unnoticed because a slow trickle up at a sensible pre-Covid velocity shows that a renewed interest in buying used watches has already begun, albeit from those who've held off over the last few years. There's another interesting development happening culturally that's also drawing interest towards mechanical watches from a broader base. The big question the luxury watch industry has been frantically trying to answer is what happens when the current watch buying demographic gets old and dies and the younger, less wealthy, less interested generations take their place? Well, two things. The first is that maturity comes with responsibility and when responsibility yields success, that success is often self-rewarded. It's always been the way and I think a luxury watch will remain the way that's communicated for many years to come yet. Why do I think that? Well, that bleeds into the second thing which is a push back against the ongoing inshitification. Inshitification is a term coined by journalist Cory Doctorow who uses it to describe the collapse of the digital online era thanks to a gradual global worsening. Subscription services, adverts, lack of ownership and the eventual decline of a service until it is no longer a benefit. This inshitification was once subtle but is now overtly demonstrated with subscriptions for heated car seats, unstoppable adverts on premium paid subscriptions that were once billed as advert free and of course not being in control of media that you've paid for that can, without your permission, be edited or even removed entirely. Inshitification always happens for financial reasons and isn't just limited to things we are immediately repulsed by. The growth of AI slop, turning social platforms once used to connect with like-minded individuals into homogenous cesspits of brain rot is as addictive as it is problematic. Entertainment built with a hive mindset that appeals en masse rather than to niche dedicated audiences is steering even this channel towards the same indistinguishable goop. It's why people are reverting to a technical regression to take control back of things they once enjoyed. People are listening to CDs and records that remain unchanged and subscription free from purchase. People are using so-called dumb phones that call and text only. At the very extreme, people are removing gadgets from their lives entirely, allowing themselves to be re-familiarised with this thing we used to have called boredom. And of course they're buying mechanical watches instead of the overwhelming level of information and connectivity delivered by smartwatches. There's nothing quite like the smooth sweep of a spring-driven second hand to give you a beat away from the relentless pace of a digitally connected life. And that's why I'm going to be bringing back the old watch reviews I used to do. Not here, they won't work here. Somewhere else where people can choose to watch them rather than be told what to watch. I'll still make videos here, of course, but where the algorithm has no room for 10 solid minutes of technical talk about a single niche wristwatch, complete with macro shots and calming music. There will be another home for those that just want things to be simpler and slower paced. Of course, I won't be able to make it free, and I hope you don't mind that. The cost will be minimal. Let me know what you think about this idea down in the comments, if you'd like to see it happen and what you think would be a fair price, if at all. Otherwise, I'd like to say a massive thank you to my wonderful Patreons who've allowed me to maintain some semblance of myself here on YouTube. If you want to support me in the meantime, you can join them via the link in the description, or you can leave a like, a comment and subscribe here too. Thank you. The big question, really, for the watch industry is, where will it go next? A rising interest in boutique watchmakers and the declining interest in big group brands is, I think, setting us up for something of a big reset. When legendary brands like Breguet scrape along under the iron grip of the Swatch Group, where relative newcomers like F.P. Journe and Rejet Rejepi sweep up all the accolades, it means things are changing. We're seeing the ens***ification of luxury across the board thanks to decreasing quality, rising prices and overt bundling practices, and collectors have simply had enough. When you can buy a watch made by a company without a marketing department for half the price that's been crafted with love and passion and not a five-year global strategy, it's easy to have a shift in priorities. And, of course, inevitably, Rolex will continue to remain number one. Thanks for watching.