Disaster! Russia is in BIG TROUBLE, NO launchpad for Soyuz Launch to ISS...

Russia's Soyuse launch pad collapsed just seconds after the rocket cleared the tower and Roscosmos really dodged a bullet here. If that launch had been delayed even a bit, this could have turned into one of the darkest days in their spaceflight history. So, what exactly happened and what caused the whole structure to fail? Let's break it down in today's episode of AlphaTech. There was a time when NASA could sprint full speed and still never catch up to Ross Cosmos. The Soviets were stacking up world firsts like it was nothing. 1957, the first artificial satellite. 1961, the first human in space. 1965, the first human in space. Alexe Leonov becoming the first person to ever step outside a spacecraft. But today, those once legendary milestones are starting to fade. And Roscosmos looks like it's sliding downhill fast. And a recent event really drove that point home. On November 27th, 2025, right on Thanksgiving, Russia pulled off a clean launch of the Soyuse MS28 mission, sending three crew members to the ISS. Two Rosscosmos cosminauts and NASA's astronaut Chris Williams. And once they docked, the whole ISS crew sat down for a surprisingly lavish holiday dinner. Turkey, lobster, even a Russian style cranberry sauce. Definitely a better spread than the microwave reheated meals over on China's Tiangong station. The mission used the Soyuse MS28 spacecraft launched on a Soyuse 2.1 rocket from site 31 at the Bikonor Ksmodrome in Kazakhstan. Liftoff was around 9:30 a.m. After just two orbits around Earth, the spacecraft automatically docked with the ISS's Rasvet module in a little over 3 hours. What impressed people wasn't just the smooth docking. It was the fact that they did it using hardware built on technology nearly six decades old and still managed to dock about half an hour faster than China's rescue flight on November 25th using their brand new Shenzh 22 spacecraft. But even with that impressive docking time, there's one thing we can't ignore. Russia is still relying on technology that's almost 6 decades old. That includes the launchpad itself. Site 31 has been standing for about 64 years. A tough Soviet relic that's handled more than 500 successful launches. But at this point, it's undeniably ancient. Russia has tried to move on. They've been building new pads at Vstakny since 2016 and developing the Angara rocket family to eventually break free from Bikonor. But so far, none of that has fully replaced this aging launch site. And the consequences showed. Just a few seconds after the MS28 crew lifted off, the pad collapsed under the shock wave from the rocket's engines. The force was massive, enough to bring the whole structure down. More specifically, the mobile service platform gave way and fell straight into the flame trench. Roscosmos quickly confirmed the incident on their Telegram channel, saying, "The launchpad's condition is currently being assessed. All necessary spare components are available for repair and the damage will be repaired shortly. And after the investigation, they found something surprising. The problem wasn't the old technology at all. It was human error during pre-launch prep. Someone forgot to secure a 20 ton service platform sitting right under the rocket. So when Soya's MS28 lifted off, that massive metal structure got thrown straight into the flame trench. Just like what we mentioned earlier, Roscosmos tried to put out the fire by saying the pad had been checked like usual and that this kind of damage can happen after launches, so regular inspections are necessary. They insisted they already have the spare parts needed for repairs. But an internal Russian source quoted in local media pointed out the real issue. Somebody forgot to lock the platform. A basic step in the checklist, not a case of old infrastructure suddenly falling apart. As of now, it's unclear whether any other Russian launchpad can actually support crude flights to the ISS. Even so, Roscosmos still plans to launch an uncrrewed progress resupply mission in December. Meanwhile, the Soyuse MS28 crew, Sergey Kudv, Sergey Mikv, and NASA astronaut Chris Williams are safe aboard the station where they're expected to stay for the next 8 months. Whether they'll eventually need a rescue mission or not, no one can say yet. Because right now, Roscosmos has just taken its only operational Soyuse launch pad out of the game. Without site 31, Russia's only active launchpad for crude Soyos and progress missions, Roscosmos is about to face something they haven't experienced since 1961. A complete inability to send their own astronauts or cargo to the International Space Station. And this blackout could last for months, maybe even a full year. Site 1/5 has been frozen for ages. Vstachnney still isn't ready for human space flight, and there's simply no backup pad on Earth that Russia can turn to immediately. The first domino to fall will be Progress MS33, scheduled for mid December 2025. That mission is almost certainly getting delayed. That means no oxygen resupply, no water shipments, no food runs, and no propellant to reboost the station's orbit. Soyuse MS 29 in 2026, that one's now in danger of being pushed back indefinitely. For the astronauts already on the ISS, including the Russians, this could force them to stay in orbit for several extra months, putting both physical and mental stress on the crew while severely shrinking the supply margins for science materials and everyday necessities. In that scenario, Russia has no choice but to lean entirely on the United States. And the one carrying that responsibility wouldn't be NASA, it would be SpaceX. By the end of 2025, SpaceX has logged more than 40 consecutive successful flights, a flawless 100% record. Dragon has become the world's most reliable and flexible spacecraft. Cargo Dragon can haul nearly 3,500 kg per trip, more than enough to replace Progress, while Crew Dragon can take additional Russian cosmonauts if needed. But the real advantage, SpaceX can ramp up launch cadence incredibly fast. With a formal agreement, they could add one or two extra cargo flights and even an additional crew rotation within just a few months. Despite all the geopolitical tension, the ISS remains the last symbol of USRussian cooperation in space. And right now, SpaceX isn't just a backup system. They're the only rescue option standing between the 25-year-old station and a supply crisis. The next few months will reveal Roscosmos's path. Rush repairs to save face or accept the reality that their near-term future in low Earth orbit now depends on an American private company. Whichever way things go, one thing is already unmistakable. The balance of power in human space flight has quietly shifted and SpaceX is the one holding the key. This whole incident really underscores the difference in philosophy. While Roscosmos is scrambling because their one and only crew rated Soyuse launchpad just collapsed, SpaceX has been doing the exact opposite, building a multi-sight, highly redundant launch architecture built for speed, resilience, and growth. At Starbase, Texas, they're not stopping at one tower. They're close to completing two full Starship launch complexes at pad 1 and pad 2. And over on the east coast, SpaceX is going even bigger, developing three more Starship pads in Florida. One at LC 39A and two at SLC 37B. And the purpose isn't just backup in case one breaks. The message from Elon Musk is basically we build more pads so we can launch more often, not so they can sit idle. Their road map for 2026 to 2027 is ambitious. 100 to 150 Starship flights per year, meaning each pad could see 20 to 30 launches annually, dozens of times higher than Russia's current soy use cadence. So if one pad needs maintenance or suffers a failure, the others keep firing without missing a beat. There's no such thing as the whole program shuts down because one pad fell over, which is exactly what Rosscosmos is facing right now. This is the contrast. A legacy system designed for scarcity and survival versus a modern system engineered for maximum throughput, rapid iteration, and unstoppable momentum. Luckily, the situation never reached disaster. Thankfully, all the crew members were safe. But if the rocket had been just a little slower, it's not hard to imagine how badly things could have gone. This incident highlights a bigger reality. Russia's war in Ukraine has forced enormous military spending, estimated over $100 billion per year, causing cuts to Roscosmos's budget from around $3.5 billion down to roughly $2.5 billion in 2025. As a result, the number of crude Soyuse missions dropped from four every 2 years to just three, and major projects like the superheavy NSA rocket have been delayed. Continuous issues like these reflect a lack of investment which in turn affects staff accountability for maintaining the infrastructure. Russia is now pushing harder for cooperation with China, the Tangong station and the ROS program from 2027. Still, the war has clearly worsened Russia's situation, potentially increasing its dependence on international partners and delaying joint efforts with China. Speaking of China, the country has been rapidly accelerating its push toward reusable launch technology with one private company now grabbing global attention. Landspace is preparing for the maiden flight of its Juk 3 rocket. This marks a major milestone, not just for the company, but for China's broader efforts to build reliable, reusable, and costeffective orbital launch systems. According to a landspace spokesperson, if successful, Juk 3 will become China's first reusable rocket, paving the way for deploying the Guang satellite constellation while bringing launch costs down to a globally competitive level. The Civil Aviation Administration of China has already announced a temporary airspace closure, giving a launch window from late November 28th to early November 29th, Eastern time. The rocket is set to lift off from the Jukcoan satellite launch center with a planned landing roughly 390 km southeast in Gansu province. This clearly signals China's first attempt at recovering a rocket stage after an orbital class launch. Landspace confirmed on November 25th that Juk 3 had arrived at the launchpad. Juk 3 is the upgraded successor to the single-use Juk 2, which had already become the first methanefueled rocket to reach orbit with a payload. Unlike its predecessor, Juk 3 is fully reusable, a shift inspired by SpaceX and aligned with China's long-term strategic goals for sustainable launch operations. The rocket itself is impressive, mostly built from stainless steel for strength and heat resistance. Juk 3 stands 66 m tall with a 4.5 m diameter and a launch mass of about 570 tons. Its first stage is powered by 9 TQ12A methane oxygen engines capable of lifting up to 21,000 kg to low Earth orbit in expendable mode or around 18,300 kg if the booster is recovered. Its stainless steel structure is often compared to SpaceX's Starship. While the 9 engine configuration and long-d distanceance landing profile evoke the Falcon 9, Landspace seems to be combining proven design philosophies to create a competitive medium to heavy lift system capable of lowering launch costs.