The Job Market Just Flashed a BIG WARNING SIGN EVERYONE NEEDS TO KNOW

This year, I've done a lot of videos about the job market considering it's probably the worst job market that we've had since the 2008 recession. And the latest story that I dug up today pretty much confirms that. Because in 2025, the layoffs have hit 1.1 million, which is actually one of the worst years going all the way back to 1993. Glassdoor, which is a company that helps people find jobs and collects jobs data, says that we are in a period right now of forever layoffs, where you have small, constant cuts continuously happening with no signs of slowing down. That's exactly what we've seen. And it hasn't just been small cuts. We've seen a lot of very large cuts as well. Challenger Gray and Christmas, they report 1.1 million layoffs year to date, which is a level that's only been reached six times since 1993. And you have to go back to 2009 to actually see the last time that this happened. And I know a couple of weeks ago, I made a video talking about how the real number of layoffs has actually been much higher than that, right around 14 million or so, when you look at all of the numbers that aren't really counted, guys, kind of like the unemployment figures. There's a lot of things that happen in the background that doesn't get included in the official data, and the layoffs is one of them. So imagine if the 1.1 million layoffs is the worst that we've seen since 2009, according to the official data, when we look at all the people that are not included in that official data, it has to make you wonder, is it actually worse than 2009? I would say a lot of people probably feel like it is, because even if you're lucky enough to still have a job right now, a lot of people are suffering through the affordability crisis that's affecting basically everyone on some level, unless you're wealthy. And this is no joke because layoffs are up 54% from just one year ago. US employers announced 1.17 million job cuts in the first 11 months of 2025, which is up 54% from 2024. In case you missed that, that's the first 11 months. We're missing the December data. It's still December, which means there's probably going to be even more, probably over 1.2 million to finish out the year. Nice way to say happy holidays, huh? And for anybody wondering, I am walking around Miami shores through various different streets. You guys can see some of the cross sections I'm walking through here. It's just a beautiful area. I love walking through here. Now, Glassdoor's figures, they actually say that the layoffs were much higher than the 1.1 million officially being reported. They estimate the numbers closer to 1.7 million people losing jobs when you account for smaller unreported layoffs. And like I said a couple of weeks ago, the number is actually more like 14 million. They say that layoffs are now rolling and continuous. And a lot of them are not large mass events, but because they're continuous, they're less visible and more frequent, which leads to these larger numbers of layoffs. And a lot of workers now are reporting that they feel more anxious than they did during the pandemic. I mean, that is wild. Just think back to how things were five years ago when we were in the middle of this pandemic, guys, especially if you lived in an area where the lockdowns were insane and you had to wear the mask everywhere and you couldn't go anywhere without a vaccine card, all of that nonsense. Imagine people were terrified back then, right? Not only of the virus, but also of just the state of the economy in general. And people feel worse now than they did then. I mean, that's kind of hard to fathom if you ask me. And it's to the point now where mentions of layoffs and job insecurity and glass door reviews are now higher than they were in 2020. And trust in corporate leadership has deteriorated sharply amongst everybody out there looking for a job. And the hiring numbers are actually even worse than the firing numbers, because only 497,000 hires were announced from January 1st through November, which is down 35% year over year. So we're in a situation where the layoffs are up 54% year over year, and the hirings are down 35% year over year, guys. It's no wonder the job market is in shambles right now. A lot of people are taking on jobs that they would have previously rejected just to be able to survive. ADP reported that in November, small businesses cut 120,000 jobs nationwide, while large corporations added 90,000. So it's still a net loss even in the private sector. So a lot of people have become completely desperate and are just settling for any job. Doesn't matter if it's the right job or not, as long as you're employed and bringing in an income. And this is probably the number one argument that the Fed is using right now to continue their interest rate cutting cycle. In case you don't know, the Fed just cut interest rates once again by an additional 25 basis points. And now since September of last year, of 2024, they have now cut 175 basis points off the federal funds rate. And the economy has actually only gotten worse since then. Well, wait a minute. I thought Fed rate cuts were supposed to make things better. I thought it was supposed to improve the job market. And I thought inflation was going away. Isn't that why they're cutting rates? Well, apparently there's more to the story than that. And the Fed is becoming more and more divided on what to do next, because there were three dissenting members on the most recent rate cut, which is the most that we've seen in a while. And there's even more uncertainty about what the Fed's going to do moving forward in 2026. Some are predicting multiple rate cuts in 2026. Others are saying there's going to be no rate cuts at all. This is going to be the last rate cut, maybe one rate cut in 2026, and maybe that's it. But they're saying, well, you know, the job market is really in trouble right now. And inflation is expected to slow down to only 2.4% by the end of this year. Well, that hasn't happened at all. In fact, the most recent inflation numbers are still showing the CPI at 3%. So I don't know where they're getting those delusional figures from, but they're saying, well, economic growth is going to be rising to 2.3%, which is going to be above what we predicted. And unemployment is projected to stay around 4.4%, even though the unemployment claims just skyrocketed last week. And the Fed also believes that fears of stagflation should be dissipating as things start to normalize in this economy. I don't know where they're getting their economic data from, but clearly it's all based in fantasy. And things could actually be getting a whole lot worse as Jerome Powell's term as the Fed chair is about to expire, and Trump is expected to nominate a successor within just a few weeks. And one thing we can almost guarantee is whoever his successor is, it's going to be somebody that's probably going to do whatever Trump says, which is cut interest rates even more. And that's why when I made that video last week about everything's about to change with your money and possibly going back to quantitative easing, basically everything is pointing to this happening, guys. So I hope you're ready for it. If you missed that video, make sure you go and give it a watch. And of course, the market's expectations is that the Fed is going to have multiple rate cuts in 2026, even though the Fed is uncertain about that. The stock market's always bullish on these rate cuts, and they're always predicting that there's going to be more rate cuts than there really will be. They're known for that. And keep in mind, this rate cut came as the core inflation numbers just ticked up from 2.7% to 2.8%. And the Fed even acknowledges that import tariffs are causing consumer prices to go even higher on top of the inflation, because remember, tariffs are not part of inflation. They are just a one-time price increase on things, but it's compounded by inflation. So it makes things worse when it comes to affordability. But they're saying there's a possibility that the Fed will do yet another rate cut in January due to the deteriorating labor market. And they still expect inflation to continue going down to 2% over the long term. And right now, their long-term projections are maybe one rate cut in 2026 and one rate cut in 2027. Yeah, well, we'll see about that, especially once Jerome Powell gets replaced. I'll believe it when I see it, guys. And honestly, it doesn't really matter, because whatever they do, they're just going to make things worse. Whether they continue lowering rates, if they leave them where they're at, it doesn't matter. This isn't going to help the average person get any further ahead. It's also really bad news for savers, people who try to save money, and you try to build up a little bit of a nest egg while the interest rates that you're getting paid on your high-yield savings account continue to go down when they cut these rates. But funny enough, the interest that you pay on things are even budgets, like your car loan, or your mortgage, or a personal loan, anything like that, the interest rates you have to pay are more tied to the 10-year treasury yield than whatever the Fed does. So you get screwed in both directions. And here's the thing that I want everybody to know about this most recent Fed meeting, is Jerome Powell once again came out and admitted that the jobs numbers that we're being told are probably drastically overstated. That's a term that he used, guys, drastically overstated. He said that the Fed believes that the federal data could be overestimating job creation by up to 60,000 jobs per month. The official data shows that we've been adding about 40,000 jobs per month since April. So if they're overestimating by 60,000 jobs per month, that means it's more like a net loss of 20,000 jobs per month every month since April this year. How great is that? His exact words were, we think there's an overstatement in these numbers. Oh, really? And of course, it's easy to come out and say that now, now that you're almost out of a job. So now you can finally start telling the truth a little bit. Wow. Check out this old car, guys. Really old Porsche. Definitely a classic right there. But if you take a look at this chart right here, it kind of shows you a visual picture of what's likely going on out there. You have the official data that comes out, add the blue line, and then the orange line is after a potential negative 60,000 job revision every single month. And what you notice is there are only two months then where job growth has been positive since April of 2025. And that's if you even believe those figures. And it doesn't really matter if we have the highest amount of layoffs that we've seen going back to 2008? Probably not. Now, they claim that part of the problem of why the jobs numbers are so inaccurate is because they have a hard time tracking the jobs that are created or destroyed when businesses start up or close down. Those jobs, they say, can't be directly surveyed because it's difficult for the government to reach out to brand new companies or companies no longer in business. So I guess that's sort of a legitimate excuse of why these jobs numbers are always so off. But the thing that I don't buy is why do they always overestimate what the real number is then? Why do they always have to make it look so much better and always revise it down? Why don't they give a conservative estimate of what the numbers are, maybe even slightly below what they might be in reality, and then revise them up a little bit when they find out that things were actually a little better than they thought? They never do that. I wonder why. Now, according to the BLS, there's going to be some changes coming next year that are going to begin in February of 2026 that supposedly are going to help make the real-time numbers more accurate and how it uses its birth-death model in order to estimate the number of jobs being created or lost. But we'll see how that goes once we actually hit that point in time, if it's really going to be more accurate or not. I mean, this might sound kind of crazy, guys, but honestly, I feel like they would be better off making economic policy based on what real people are actually telling you and saying on what's going on with their personal situation, how consumer sentiment is, how people feel about the economy, how much affordability is impacting their daily quality of life, how worried they are about their job or how likely they are to get another one. I feel like those things should be taken far more into account on what happens with the next rate cut or even rate increase than all of this BS government data that constantly needs to be revised because of how inaccurate it is. Another example of inaccurate data and predictions is they're talking about how U.S. economic growth in 2026 is expected to be weak but stable. The 2025 GDP numbers are expected to come in at 1.8% growth for the year, and they're saying next year is going to be slightly higher at 1.9%. And growth still remains below the 2% threshold considered healthy for developed economies. So high-level conversation here. One of the first two things I noticed is, number one, the GDP growth is actually lower than the CPI and the core inflation, which means that even if there is this growth, and let's say it's real, we're still negative when you factor in for inflation. So they don't talk about that. They don't tell you that the economy is actually shrinking, which means we are in recession. That's what the official definition of a recession is. It's when we're seeing negative GDP for at least two quarters in a row. Well, isn't it negative if the inflation numbers are higher than the actual GDP growth? The other thing I noticed is that we know for a fact that the GDP figures are heavily based on consumer spending. About 70% or so of the GDP is all because of consumer spending. And so if consumer spending has to continue rising because inflation is a problem, well, don't you think that's going to have an impact on the GDP? Well, of course it is because it's 70% of that number. So the way I judge this is all this information is essentially fake because it's based on spending that people have to do in order just to be able to survive. You don't have a choice. You have to spend the money in order to get by right now. And if something costs more than it did a year ago, and it's an essential item, well, then you have to pay that higher price, whether you would like to or not. It's not negotiable. But now that these predictions for 2026 are coming out, they're saying, listen, the S&P 500 is probably going to hit 8,000 in 2026, which of course is an all new record high and about a 15% gain over 2025. Now, if that ends up being true, then pretty much everybody should have some money invested in the S&P 500. I still like gold and silver a whole lot better. I think the gains on that are going to far surpass anything that you're going to see with the S&P 500. But if you know this is very likely to happen, it makes sense to have some money in the game. And they're saying one thing that's going to have a big boost on the economy in the early part of 2026 is larger than normal tax refunds due to the big beautiful bill that was passed this year. People are going to have overtime and tip deductions. People are going to have vehicle loan interest deductions. And also there's a $6,000 in extra deductions for senior citizens over 65 years old. And there's estimated to be an additional $55 billion in refunds hitting people's wallets, which of course gets injected straight into the economy. So the average refund check for tax season in 2026 is expected to be $1,000 higher than it was last year. Also, people are still very bullish on the future of AI. And they're saying that AI investments are going to continue to grow throughout 2026. And that's going to contribute to more AI data centers. Great. Your electric bill is going to go higher. And everybody's going to get dumber because no one knows how to do anything themselves anymore. So that sounds wonderful. Economists say that AI is going to be the primary engine for growth for at least another year. Great. But not everything is looking great because they're saying that big portions of the economy are still suffering right now. Most notably housing, manufacturing, and some service-based businesses are all not performing well and are not expected to get any better in 2026. And we're still expecting weaker than normal job growth moving into 2026. So imagine if this has been the worst year for jobs since 2009, what's 2026 going to look like? And the other prediction is that unemployment is expected to peak at 4.6% in early 2026. I mean, it's at 4.4% right now. They're saying it's only going to get a smidge worse in 2026. Well, we'll see about that. Even if that is the case, guys, I don't really care. I don't give the official unemployment number a whole lot of weight, especially when you just look at the functionally unemployed in this country sitting close to 25%. That's all I need to know in order to see where things are really at right now. But they do predict that the job market should finally start taking a turn for the better in the second half of 2026 as corporate profits increase and companies have already passed on most of the cost of the tariffs to their customers and we have lower interest rates. And one of the predictions is kind of hilarious as the Fed is cutting interest rates. They say that inflation is going to peak in 2026 at 3.3%. That's 0.3% higher than it is right now, but yet they're still cutting rates and still considering cutting again. And if the Trump administration actually follows through with this $2,000 tariff dividend check, basically another round of stimulus checks, if that comes to fruition and hits the economy, that's going to make inflation surge even higher as more people are going to have a little extra cash, which means consumer demand spikes and companies and businesses can raise prices once again. Guys, everybody loves this idea like, oh yeah, give me that $2,000 check. And everybody seems to have amnesia about what happened last time we got all this stimulus. Yeah, did it help people temporarily? Absolutely it did. It definitely made the difference of whether some people were able to pay the bills or pay their rent, whatever, but look at where we're at now and imagine how much worse it's going to get if we get another round of those stimmy checks. But you know who's not feeling so bullish on the economy is the payroll company ADP. We've talked a lot about their data in 2025 since it's been far more reliable and accurate than the BLS data when it comes to jobs. But ADP is saying that they believe that the weak labor conditions are going to become permanent in 2026. In other words, there is going to be no second half of the year turnaround in the labor market. Things are going to continue being bad all next year with the job market. And of course, Wall Street has an extremely rosy outlook for 2026, but they're saying that the payroll data at ADP does not track with what Wall Street is predicting for 2026. And they're saying this has a lot to do with what's happening with small businesses right now because small businesses are making decisions like not hiring those two teenagers to work seasonally or eliminating part-time jobs altogether or not replacing somebody who recently left or who was fired. And so essentially, ADP is saying that it's kind of like death by a thousand cuts in this job market right now because a bunch of these tiny moves collectively produce large-scale weakening in the job market as a whole. And of course, these small little cuts or small little shifts that small businesses make don't make the news headlines, but it completely reshapes the employment data moving forward. So essentially, they're saying that the real-time employment data is not matching the rosy outlook moving forward into next year. And we should all be more cautious and a little more concerned about what's going to happen next year than just take these bullish predictions at face value and believe next year is going to be the year when everything turns around. And listen, I am an optimistic person by nature, which a lot of you might not really know that considering the type of things I'm always talking about here on YouTube, but I do have faith that eventually we're going to be able to turn things around. But a lot of it relies on you guys. It relies on how much people take control of their own spending and their own level of debt that they carry. It relies on how many people decide to start businesses rather than deal with the horrible job market. It relies on people voting with their wallet and not allowing these companies that are continuously gouging people and providing very poor customer service to stay in business. We kind of have all the power to change all this stuff, but people don't realize it. So that's one thing I want to just try to get people to understand as I'm going to keep drilling it into everybody's head moving forward into 2026. So hopefully collectively, as people shift all their spending habits and saving habits and earning habits, then maybe we can actually make things better on our own. And then it won't matter what the Fed decides to do or what the predictions look like, because you're kind of making your own future at that point. And then you just use whatever they do to your advantage. So if the S&P 500 is likely to go up next year due to all of these rosy predictions, have a little bit of money in the stock market. If we know for sure inflation is going to continuously get worse, make sure you're buying gold and silver. That's a guarantee that's going to go up in value. Those are things that are going to make you wealthier. Use this to your advantage. Does it suck that inflation is going to get worse? Yeah, but at least there's something you can do about it by having a little skin in the game in the right parts of the game. So if you guys enjoyed this video, make sure you subscribe to the channel. And if you don't want to wait for my next video to come out, check out this one on the screen right over here, and I'll see you in the next one.