中共自貿港只是自己玩自己 明年就會爛尾？搞爛香港兩制在眼前！日圓利率30年高點 美國經濟助攻日本？中國金融凜冬風暴逼臨！拉丁美洲多國轉向離中去共化！｜王國臣｜新聞大破解 【2025年12月25日】

News Breakdown Decoding Big News Hello everyone Hong Kong's Jimmy Lai was convicted by the CCP's so-called charges Three days later The Chinese Communist Party launched the so- called Hainan Free Trade Zone What is the outlook China has 300 small and medium-sized banks collapsed The Zhejin Center scandal broke out However Goldman Sachs has revised its estimate believing that China's real estate will fall another 15% before 2027 Is the financial winter storm already here in China So Trump's national security strategy In Asia to win the future through the economy The U S Trade Representative announced the Section 301 investigation results Starting from the 23rd take tariff actions against the CCP country and in June next year add a tariff on top of the existing 50% tax rate While the Japanese central bank raises interest rates the yen rises What impact will this have on global finance Why is the CCP side strongly pessimistic Let's introduce the guest from the news breakdown Assistant researcher at the Chinese Institute for Economic Research Professor Wang Guocheng host good day to all viewers welcome Professor in Hong Kong this once globally crucial free port city is increasingly being described as various things The site has become a variety of ruins The CCP imposed the Hong Kong National Security Law in 2020 A major fire broke out in Hong Kong on November 26 After shocking the world The Hong Kong court on the 15th made a so-called conviction of Jimmy Lai three days later the CCP authorities announced the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port on October 18th The region is heavily promoted as having about 74% of its goods with zero tariffs which will attract a large number of people to shop but now prices have already risen Some people believe that the media we see is considered more pro-Beijing they think that when this free trade zone was still struggling in Taiwan The CCP proposed the Belt and Road Initiative quickly approved the so- called Shanghai Free Trade Zone and replicated 22 more in various places therefore believing that Hainan Free Trade Port The final answer to the world So I would like to ask Teacher Wang how you observe the so-called openness of Hainan Free Trade Zone that China claims to be complementary with Hong Kong in terms of advantages What would your world think if this were the so- called answer sheet to the world It's probably divided into three parts Looking at the first part first of all the Hong Kong section which is relatively simple Hong Kong is in fact what was just mentioned Since the National Security Law many aspects have already shown its impact The first is the U S Heritage Foundation Since the Hong Kong National Security Law Kick Hong Kong out of the so-called economic freedom rankings So its entire economic freedom is equivalent to China So this is obviously a big blow to the claim of being the global financial freedom center It's even more so when it comes to political aspects whether it's Freedom House or its own organization the ratings have dropped significantly falling to the bottom of the list from being among the top globally The main reason Hong Kong is a financial center is based on its freedom even the issue of Jimmy Lai mentioned just now is a judicial issue and another aspect of Hong Kong as a financial center is judicial independence So it now seems the second pillar has also collapsed Naturally in recent years China has been making efforts to support Hong Kong especially after the anti -extradition bill movement in order to maintain face But our observation is that Hong Kong's status is becoming increasingly lower The first is from the national offshore RMB center to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area which has already become just a local part of Guangdong The nearest area is called the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Special Zone So it has now been moved from Guangdong to Shenzhen And Shenzhen serves as the main one Because Shenzhen has both high-tech manufacturing and finance So everyone knows that Xi Jinping likes high technology So Hong Kong's status is becoming increasingly declining I think the last straw that is currently crushing Hong Kong is the Hong Kong stablecoin on August 1st We've mentioned in the program that Xi actually doesn 't like this thing Maybe it's because of allowing Hong Kong to be free or maybe you come up with your own way to revitalize it You just do it yourself But when Chinese companies like Alibaba also wanted to get involved it angered the Beijing authorities so you can see that after the announcement of the Hong Kong stablecoin regulations The governor of the People's Bank of China Pan Gongsheng said that they want to establish a digital yuan offshore center in Shanghai The strict crackdown on virtual currency up to early December You can see that if you want to issue a stablecoin in Hong Kong you can issue it but you must not have any connection with China So when you apply this logic back to Hainan it's no longer surprising That's why Hainan's port closure has been an established agenda for the past few years But why did he specifically emphasize that it should also become an offshore center for the renminbi It's about the distrust towards Hong Kong's plan to issue virtual currency so the focus shifts back to Hainan which is another very unique place I can directly say that the place is passionate because its strengths and weaknesses are that it is a harbor connecting each island to China without direct connection So the 18th century mindset led by China thinks that since you are across the sea your financial activities won't affect my China mainland which is called the domestic territory So there were continuous policy supports in the past that made hopes for Hainan to rise So we can roughly look back and divide it into three waves The first wave was actually when Hainan was on the periphery during the early stages of reform and opening up So they also benefited So later some large-scale policies supported him to speculate in real estate In the end the first one had problems The first state-owned bank to collapse in China was the Hainan Development Bank In the 1999 Asian financial crisis he fell but later he still tried to revive him so he started another wave which is the HNA Group the Hainan Airlines Group It's related to Wang Qishan so it's also the bankruptcy of the HNA Group in recent years which is the huge HNA group That's why after the bankruptcy they started again with the Hainan Free Port and it has been continuously connected So the advantage of Hainan's free trade port is that the Beijing authorities are separated by the sea However the disadvantage is that your policy resources are actually very hard to reach this place So we naturally feel that Hainan's trade port given these inherent disadvantages will certainly end up in failure probably similar to the outcome of the Xiongan New Area If the fastest estimate I don't know whether it's the most optimistic or the most pessimistic Our short-term estimate is that he should be in trouble by next year Why because China doesn't have the money right now But how can you continue to hype the Hainan Free Port when there's no money So unlike in the past when there was a lot of money to support it he will quickly see his bearish line if there's no money now So we expect the effect to become visible very soon next year The other one is an internal factor The external factors of course we still have to go back to these years from 2018 to now What is the U S trade war about Actually the U trade war is about security So we have heard less about pursuing efficiency in trade now it's about fairness that is balancing free and fair trade and economic security has become the core Economic security is essential So what is the difference between efficiency and security The Hainan trade port is an example of WTO thinking That is I sell cheap goods with zero tariff Then my products are of good quality and low price But what is the US or Europe looking for now You can't have government subsidies And you can't have spyware So what he wants is security So you set up a trade port that' s open to the whole world But Europe and other countries think about what I want is safe things I don't want cheap things As we just analyzed from the policy resources perspective the CCP actually says on the surface it supports Hong Kong but in reality it has been weakening it It has been weakening it and lowering it The situation in Hainan you just mentioned is whether the policy resources can reach Hainan which remains an issue but as you just mentioned international relations is also a matter of the system For example you just mentioned that the CCP might say "I let Hainan " I may have agreed to several commitments to the WTO but I didn't fulfill any of them so now with Hainan But he only does part of it He is still the most critical one Like what you just mentioned whether the network should be open and whether the system should be free etc If he doesn't have those things would people dare to go in This is a good question Let's split it into two parts The first is the institutional aspect it is still within China's framework The one country two systems policy has been undermined He is trying to create another one country two systems there You see he said that it raises a very good question which is that Hong Kong is increasingly becoming one country one system So he is implementing one country two systems in Hainan If Hong Kong can be turned into this situation can we still believe it Yes So this further led to Hong Kong's thriving during the British era but under Chinese rule there is an obvious decline You still want to use China's capital controls To develop something that would make Hainan an international financial hub That is certainly impossible So it usually goes back It becomes an issue of policy hype That's right people keep hyping it up Take as much money as you can from the speculation But the core point we just mentioned is China has no money right now So of course this speculation will collapse in an extremely short time So we naturally believe that Hainan another point to emphasize in fact he was still strictly speaking he violated WTO regulations because under WTO regulations A country is a tariff But now you' re saying that China has one tariff zone and Hainan is another tariff zone so it's not following WTO's openness He actually violated WTO rules So in the end we came back to talk Who would need me to set up a factory in Hainan first just for such a small tariff rate Then importing into China Hong Kong still has a slight advantage in that after all it is one country two systems so I set up a factory and company in Hong Kong Relatively speaking it is still a bit safer than being inside China so since the beginning of this year Hong Kong's IPOs initial public offerings Rising back to third place from tenth in 2024 Most of them are Chinese capital right Yes Chinese capital wants to get out but has nowhere to go I at least want to go to Hong Kong They don't want to directly return to China either they are also in Hong Kong hiding there going from Hong Kong to China first so Hong Kong still has this advantage Hainan doesn't you are still trying to promote Chinese accounts in Hainan So you're not making people's funds any safer So we naturally feel that Hainan is just a theme This hype theme should last for the entire next year I think the bubble will burst as early as mid-year Okay the teacher I'd like to ask something Because I'm feeling a bit nostalgic Back then Taiwan said they wanted to establish this Asia-Pacific operations center Of course that era is different from now What do you think about Hainan He said Hainan and Hong Kong have complementary advantages and so on Although he is in the Hainan area compared to Taiwan they are all 36 000 square kilometers We are a bit larger about the same size From this perspective How do you think comparing Hainan Free Trade Zone with Taiwan's current situation Why do people say that since Tainan is willing to open up Taiwan can only achieve this We should first say a few words This is something that really upset me when I was in school If everyone around me didn't share our views like I did This is what we learned in our elementary school textbooks And they even called it an export processing zone China's reform and opening up started in Shenzhen Zhuhai and Shantou There was another one that I forgot They also established processing and export zones So this processing export zone is actually modeled after Taiwan's It will eventually become saying that we need to learn from China's free trade zone So basically it's China copying Taiwan's not Taiwan imitating China now Then another one this is actually the thinking of the horse-drawn carriage era which is the reason we established the free trade port in Taipei and so on at that time there were also two concepts The first is that the tariff on the cargo is zero tariff Honestly you are also an airport in Taoyuan Aviation City now you are continuously doing it so is it really necessary to have different tariffs inside and outside Taiwan still needs to rely on this cheap labor then a large amount of cheap labor after which the products are made there should not enter the domestic market and then be sold out I think that's an old-fashioned idea Taiwan doesn't have that much cheap labor We ourselves are short on cheap labor The second point is even more ridiculous Finance like Hainan's needs to become a free trade port That's why we all say "Wow what kind of concept is this " Do you still think of finance in terms of regions Finance is a networked digital concept You need to say that I have established a free trade zone in Taipei Port or Hainan Then you can use completely free capital here Actually you don't need to be in Hainan you can just set it up online So many places to choose from which is what we call DPU and OPU it means you can go to the Bank of Taiwan whether it's Taoyuan or Tainan it's the same you can open a RMB account there You don't need to go to a physical Tainan Port to open an account and the key point about Hainan Port is that it operates under the CCP's legal system and can turn on you at any moment Yes So I think the free trade port is a product of the old era Secondly it also does not conform to the current trend of emphasizing international security That is especially during Trump's tariff era the situation was completely reshuffled and renegotiated and in such circumstances its influence was actually not very significant He was originally playing with himself playing with himself yes that's the financial exchange between Hainan and the mainland that's why we are emphasizing again when there's no money This operation is sure to show results in the short term meaning within the non-red supply chain or perhaps gradually non- red financial chains may appear in which case Taiwan if it has already mastered this area would have a very large market yes Okay Thank you very much Let's take a break Be right back News Big Cargo Team thanks you for your suppor Welcome back to the News Big Step The Asia that is currently receiving a lot of attention in terms of the economy is Japan's new momentum The support rating for the Takahashi Hayato cabinet is 75% and has been at a high level for three consecutive months The approval rating for those aged 18 to 29 exceeds 92% Over the past three months it has pushed through several difficult policies including defensive statements regarding Taiwan which actually received the support of the majority of the public Japan's economy is emerging from deflation it seems to be igniting new momentum for industry at this time the Bank of Japan which has maintained near-zero interest rates for a long time The recent policy meeting decided to raise the interest rate by one notch to 0.75% and this is the highest interest rate level in 30 years and also stated that the decision received full agreement and that further rate hikes may continue in the future Expert Hsieh Chin-ho pointed out that since December China's online live streaming platforms have continuously broadcast that Japan's interest rate hike will shake Wall Street and then cause a global collapse Japanese interest rate hikes have three types of assets to be sold but it didn't happen then they started saying that if Japan raises rates China will take off and explode so I would like to ask Professor Wang Guocheng What does the yen's interest rate hike really mean First of all Japan's interest rate hike is now the fourth wave The first wave started in March of last year marking the end of the zero interest rate and negative interest rate era Then it rose in July Raising another quarter of a percent Then two quarters one quarter Anyway 0.25% Then by January of this year Raising to 0.5% It has been raised again to 0.75% So let's start by saying the entire process of raising interest rates From a broader perspective we'll explain it in a very simple way What will be the result of the interest rate hike Obviously foreign capital will see that it is more profitable here so the funds will flow into Japan So you can see a month ago Takashi It's not about investing in Japan just because of the recent "giant " statement So money will flow back to Japan That 's why in the past The so-called lost 30 years because of Japan's economic stagnation leading to capital outflows and insufficient investment momentum resulting in poor employment and consumption Now the funds are returning The Japanese economy will continue to rise Regarding what Chairman Xie Jinhe mentioned compared to China I can't remember exactly how many times China has cut interest rates It should be said that since he started setting the so-called Loan Market Prime Rate (LPR) in my impression he has not raised it at all There have been no increases since 2016 and 2019 reflecting the entire situation of his industry structural downward trends have already existed yes so China's interest rates have been cut That Japanese interest rates are rising The smart investors obviously know that money will flow to Japan So Buffett invested in the five major trading companies several years ago Yes So Chairman Hsieh Jin-he said Deflation is being passed on here so we have observed that it is China the official statistics China's direct investment abroad has been growing positively for two consecutive months The growth rate is approaching last year's 6% level This has been the case for the past few years Now it has started to go outwards In comparison China's current domestic fixed capital investment Three months of negative growth so there is no money left in the country everyone is fleeing So Chairman Hsieh Jin-he said "Deflation transfer or lost " "20 or 30 years of transfer is right here " "So China turned back and said " "Why is China so worried " The following is about the terror of demonizing Japan's flag-raising Because later there was no result Then started to say like Ah Q Japan's flag-raising is also good for us That whole thing is called a mental breakdown the logic is very confused I can't understand it things are more refined than me called logic I say it's a mental breakdown So far This is the first step What is the second step Of course for Japan I think the most painful thing about raising the flag is If you raise the flag Then everyone has seen the popular science Funds flow into Japan So the yen should appreciate The result of the yen appreciating is that Japan's export products will lose competitiveness So this was a concern for Japan in the past So this time we can see The environment that Takahashi faces is more severe compared to the Abe era because we are now in an era of inflation and you cannot depreciate the exchange rate as this could worsen domestic inflation At that time Abe faced a deflation that was impossible to move so he didn't have to worry about inflation Therefore the situation that Takashima faces is more severe than during Abe's time But you can see this wave It's unclear whether it's Japan's deliberate move or because the US economy is really doing well so recently the US third-quarter economic growth rate was announced to be unexpectedly good so international hot money is flowing in Continuing to stay in the US without flowing to Japan because of Japan's interest rate hike causing the yen to appreciate so this creates a very scary effect which is that by raising interest rates you attract capital inflows Bringing global capital into Japan drives domestic investment but you can also maintain export competitiveness through a low exchange rate right It seems to form a kind of cycle not sure if the US is doing it on purpose But it actually forms an objective support for Japan's economy which is like lighting a fire for him making it even more complicated for China your interest rate hike There was no reduction in the competitiveness of the Japanese yen's exports The competitiveness of Japanese product exports That would be a threat to Chinese products So this is what China is worried about Another point is this I see So why is China so concerned about Japan's recent interest rate hike Further analysis shows that the real problem is that China's CCP Central Economic Work Conference had just concluded It has been explicitly stated that interest rates and reserve requirements will continue to be cut next year In other words China's interest rates will keep declining This ongoing decline interest rates will make it increasingly unattractive for funds to stay in China which will also accelerate the outflow of capital from within China The relocation of domestic or foreign capital so the situation will be more like Japan in the past so China is now extremely worried about this so I would like to ask the issue of the yen interest rate hike regarding the possible industrial aspects Or the impact on global stock markets because earlier this year there was a big drop in the US stock market then it was the carry trade involving the Japanese yen as the yen's interest rate hike caused some shocks Some charts indicated challenges and so on but this time the interest rate hike seems to have no similar situation and the stock market continued to rise sharply That's because the global industry has already turned optimistic Or rather because Trump' s tariffs have stabilized so the outlook is now on track and people are confident in Japan What factors are they I think the first one is what Dongsu said I think all countries are adapting It's a world without China so everyone is adjusting Old ways of thinking need to adapt to the future The current pattern of transformation will have a period of friction This is the first thing that can be confirmed: when there is no chicken in China funds slowly escape from the black hole and you can see Taiwan's economy There will be ups and downs this year which is also because a large amount of investment from Taiwanese businessmen in the country will be lost Our recent exports the latest data show a 39% increase this quarter which is surprising and even surpassed China I was very surprised Then the other one the Japanese in China also the funds will return then add to the Chinese's operate which intensified the conflict between China and Japan So even big companies are leaving So I think this is the second reason why Japan's economy will better This is the first thing to say The second is the one in May Actually or say during the early days of Trump's inauguration After being reappointed some operations I think it's because it was the first people didn't understand Trump's actions and the reciprocal tariffs were too harsh then plus the US debt at that time kept soaring Interest rates continue to surge so I think it's a period of friction or an adjustment period another possibility is a conspiracy or a black hole depending on the points we have observed in the past China in the past year or so Do not talk about making profits this year The past few years have accumulated large trade surpluses If following the logic of a normal country Taking Taiwan as an example What should be done with Taiwan's large trade surplus It must be sent back to invest in the US financial market especially in US government bonds thus maintaining the US bond market and interest rates Is that right Then a series of U S investment costs So liquidity is like that Goods trade to Taiwan Then feedback back to U liquidity Then the US doesn't need to print money The current issue is that China has accumulated a large global trade deficit especially a lot through third countries then transshipped to the Western producers to the US So the US is still the largest creditor but China has been continuously doing so for more than thirty months now they are all sticking to US debt then buying gold so your money doesn't go back to the US So it's become that the US must keep printing money or its government bond interest rates will keep rising because China isn't buying anymore so there 's one less big buyer if they can't step in to buy Although it may not necessarily have an impact it should be said that although it may not have a fatal impact he is always a major buyer so he created a black hole in the global dollar mechanism Because the money turned into gold this aspect also caused the yen's surge or the stock market turmoil in the US At that time it was also being corrected as everyone can see now So why do people now demand that China should appreciate its currency Because you keep doing it like this and the latest data from the US Treasury shows that he continues to sell US bonds Do not sell off the reduced U S debt Reducing U S debt So he continues to purchase gold Actually this is not good for China either Because we calculate a bit In the past compared to this year his trade surplus grew by double digits Although we believe China 's money supply is excessively inflated the current expansion of the People's Bank is less than 5% He made a lot of money but didn't release it domestically so the people were actually suffering because the people didn't have money as you mentioned the reaction is that Many that look like a surplus actually are many production machines or a lot of capital fleeing in disguise not wanting to come back which looks like a surplus yes the first one is fleeing So the foreign exchange in his capital account didn' t increase But even if you deduct that part you made so much money But the domestic currency issued isn' t that much It should be said that you made one yuan I only have 1 yuan in my hand The problem is that now I earn 10 yuan outside The boss tells you there is only 2 yuan So domestic consumption is also tough So China's domestic deflation is happening It is partly because of the large-scale purchase of gold so China continues to do so which is actually a serious harm to the world so of course the US or Japan have already started to adjust even Taiwan But then the rest is up to China itself whether it is willing to adjust on its own If it is not willing to adjust its deflation problem will become increasingly severe We know that Japan often cooperates with the US and Taiwan in third countries For example investing in Southeast Asia For example the tourism corridor Or supporting the semiconductor plant in the Philippines Or cooperation with Taiwan in Central and South America Or in Africa and Central Asia All are possible in the future There have always been similar mechanisms So in such a situation when the yen is raised of course when Japan raises interest rates will this be of some help to their overseas operations If interest rates rise it's not helpful for their overseas investments I think that's obviously still dependent on whether you look at it from a financial perspective or an industrial perspective Because if you're speculating in the short term Of course it is affected by so-called currency value fluctuations That is if you do so then in economics we divide it into long-term foreign direct investment which is building factories Establishing a factory or professional factory construction another is stock investment equity investment So if it is helping the Philippines jointly establishing a wafer factory in the Philippines or investing in Latin America these are considered long-term investments It would not be affected by short-term exchange rate fluctuations Then there is another question which is currently referred to in the domestic context whether there would be a problem of draining Taiwan or draining Japan It's just that your semiconductor factory moved to the US So Taiwan no longer has a semiconductor factory Isn't that a very simple logic That's their logic But the times are changing So we naturally moved the lower stage and low-process operations overseas Our domestic is 23 million and Japan has more than 100 million people I can't do everything So of course it's up to us to develop it and then go to other places to do it the low-level layout overseas this is actually in Japan I think you all don't need to think too complicated just think that we are At least according to my childhood concept it's theory of aversion meaning that Japan starts to return to setting up lower-level operations in other countries while doing core research and development domestically Why was it like that for the past 20 years Global international investment will be disrupted because of a single mainland China How much money you invest in mainland China you can't fill it up So it becomes said that all the money from various countries is being drained by it Now it's back to 20 years ago so as long as everyone has the tariff for the alliance etc if the alliance starts to become financially inflated the basic previous model can be reactivated Yes yes Thank you let's take a break and be back shortly Want to see a more complete analysis Click on the link in the following description box or scan the QR code on the right Subscribe to NTD Video For the price of just two cups of coffee a month you can enjoy the full VIP viewing experience The News Breakdown Team thanks you for your support Welcome back to News Breakdown Some experts believe that Japan is now taking the stick of deflation and adding things like real estate bubbles and then following up with that It's the CCP that will have to take responsibility for all of this Let's take a look The cold winter of China's finance Is it really approaching Over 300 small and medium-sized banks have already collapsed and exited the market this year setting a historical high The outlook for real estate developer Evergrande is also bleak Goldman Sachs' Wall Street research report reassesses the risks of the Chinese real estate market and its impact on the banking sector It is expected before 2027 The estimated decline originally at 4% now widened to 15% could it be even larger Moreover it is expected that the Chinese banking system will generate 2.3 trillion yuan The situation regarding non-performing loans related to this real estate project Moreover another piece of news is that the Zhejiang authorities approved the establishment of the Zhejiang Financial Assets Exchange which the authorities also invested in and it has now defaulted There is no way to redeem the 2 billion yuan worth of products under the company's name so the investors are now pressuring the authorities to repay the loan so this was originally considered to be a local government of the CCP This shadow banking system is now also in trouble It was also a central risk transfer system but it can no longer withstand the pressure May I ask Professor Wang can you help us interpret this Such signs in the financial sector indicate what First of all we still think Goldman Sachs and Nomura are too pessimistic not too optimistic too optimistic 15% is still too optimistic Let's do the math From October 2021 when Evergrande started to collapse until now December 2025 it has been about 44 months That patient has been in the hospital for 44 months Basically we all thought you should just handle the funeral arrangements So we did it last year Not last year It's already 2025 now We have mentioned before that in 2023 we just discussed the deadline for the time which is March 2024 Why Because after the two sessions are over you still need policy funding So you dragged it until last year's end basically three and a half years you basically don't save it anymore this real estate doesn't need to be saved so our first at that time we judged so now it's dragged until now It's been 44 months Do you think it will get better Probably not So our first So we feel If according to Nomura or Goldman Sachs' statements You still expect it to continue for another 7 years That's what the recent Longjing report said He also hasn't seen a country that can have deflation for more than 10 quarters that is 30 months So we don't know if there's a country whose finance can be delayed for more than seven years without reporting when there are obvious problems because the cost you pay is the entire country's economic compensation So we think basically Goldman Sachs or Nomura is too optimistic The reason for the optimism is that you can 't expect these to drop by such an extent again or as Lou Jiwei said It will continue to decline for another five years During this process China' s financial system will not collapse but will continue safely It will slowly decline to that level a safe decline Isn't that a soft landing So given how bad the situation is we should expect a hard landing not a soft landing The soft landing was supposed to happen earlier probably at the end of last year After that time point We personally speaking can only expect a hard landing We need to prepare for the risks and impacts of a hard landing This is the first point to clarify The second point to clarify is this Zhejin company It's actually related to the former chairman of the Economic and Political Council so in other words the reason we just said so much is because every real estate company in China is basically a liability But would it blow up That would be related to the company's past or present manager or senior management Like the Council Meeting the Zhejin Company is involved in the Council Meeting So it triggered this explosion Before that you could look at it from this angle Like the Tomorrow Group right Once it is caught or disappears Then the assets of its Tomorrow Group will have problems So you can see that in order to counter-argue why Vanke hasn't been in trouble yet it could have continued it did have problems but then it continued to delay so as long as the boss of this company still exists So basically there won't be any problems So Evergrande before they also replaced a batch of leaders but it wasn't as big as the parliamentary incident So the crisis was exposed but later it still continued to be delayed If it's as full as the parliament it will burst directly Third You see Evergrande seems to have not reported any problems So it continues to take loans So everyone can clearly see the order and hierarchy of the defaults in China So the third one why did it blow up I think it has to be divided into two parts The first is general real estate which probably wouldn't make it blow up whether it's the state- owned enterprise Vanke or the private enterprise Evergrande Because buying a house does not mean everyone is speculating some people are just looking for a place to live simply requiring a home to settle down if even this house has problems it will cause public resentment but Zhejin Company is different You might have extra money that can be invested so this one yuan will make it grow therefore move forward whether it 's P2P which means you lend your money So this part of the CCP will actually cut losses So if you take a loss on this part you just take the loss However it will protect real estate So why was there a commitment to complete construction in the past Commitment to complete construction etc Its logic is here so I think these two parts should be viewed separately but it's also scary because actually many people invest without having spare money whether it's P2P or other types It's simply unaffordable to buy a house or rather the situation is such that houses look like this you buy one and then the price plummets and so on but instead you ended up buying some financial products just to give it a try Or maybe some official media of the authorities would cooperate with the promotion or something then they would be lured in and later they were cut off again So I think but from the perspective of the Beijing authorities it's a large proportion It thinks most people believe there will be spare money for buying but your real estate won 't let it blow up So I think basically its current approach is still old thinking but we say This situation will become increasingly urgent in the future That is in further answering why a hard landing occurs You open a business door these companies incur losses so their daily debts keep accumulating You let it fall possibly cutting losses here in the future but you don't let it fall every day so it opens every day the loss amount keeps accumulating Who will pay for these losses The bank If the bank absorbs these debts its bad assets will increase So now it becomes a terrifying balance If real estate problems arise then you can see The pace of the past few years the center will call the local areas or you can see Vanke's simple interest it will take money from state-owned banks when your momentum has passed the banks will no longer save it why is that Because if the bank actively saves Evergrande will it be sued by political enemies later saying you have a conflict of interest because it's clearly a risky bank why did you still lend money to it So they have now become a problem that is not usually rescued during normal times then this debt keeps on accumulating you don't know how to deal with it it keeps on piling up piling up for a period of time everyone has to wait for the upper level to speak The above statement This bank will go and eat it Eat this debt And then it becomes a vicious cycle So now what's being watched is How far the bank's tolerance goes There are already 300 small and medium-sized banks that have collapsed so I think this signal is saying whether the financial winter will come or not the storm like I thought yesterday Teacher Song Guocheng and I had a chat He thought the storm had already started I don't know What do you think about this So that's the point If we're looking at it I personally think the storm hasn't started yet Not yet Because maybe Mr Song He is more forward-looking I am a bit more conservative It's the annual growth rate of savings still positive growth but the speed is slowing down When Hu Jintao was in power the RMB savings One was two-digit growth now it has dropped to single-digit so when the general public has no money the middle class has no money now only the bourgeoisie has money The bourgeoisie as mentioned earlier tries to move money abroad first so their savings capacity is also declining Therefore if the annual growth rate of savings drops to zero it may even start to decline The warning signal has already emerged so I think now there's a feeling of an approaching storm but it hasn't really broken out yet Another thing is that small and medium-sized banks have already started having problems so the current approach is Whose state-owned banks are these 300 state-owned banks In fact they are state-owned banks that are eating up these banks So they are still through the huge deposits of state-owned banks To support the current financial crisis whether it's small and medium-sized banks government debt or current real estate issues all these toxic assets will eventually be absorbed by the so-called state-owned banks State-owned banks reiterated once again that their strength comes from the deposits of the people but this rate has been declining so I think this issue will gradually become worse Where is the other penalty Which is constantly mentioned in our program It just doesn't let you get the money So if you give money to the people the storm starts immediately So now it's making the city very small So the money you can get is very limited So it locked up the massive public deposits to support this everywhere-pitiful debt Then now the latest news The foreign exchange control has apparently dropped again from 5000 to 1000 So getting money is getting more difficult So in summary stolen money isn't necessarily a financial crisis It's about social unrest or social unrest that doesn't mention politics this should be the people's unrest because you have locked up the money the people have no money You won't have financial problems but public resentment will come out if you shut down the city public resentment won't come out but the financial system will collapse so I think China now only has two options either the financial system collapses first Otherwise public resentment is getting higher and higher which also reflects the recent increase in public resentment and more epidemic prevention incidents so I think the storm hasn't started yet but all the previous steps have already been set in place These two issues will influence each other It will eventually explode one way or another It seems that the question is which one will explode first It could be that political risk explodes first affecting financial risk or financial risk explodes first leading to public resentment What do you think about the situation where Trump if he is in power next year says he will take action to reduce the 301 tariff on China considering that it is already at 50% We will add a new tariff by June next year The quota has not been released yet This matter First of all we would like to restate that our forecast is still accurate So the tariff we are seeing is not the main focus for next year as we have already said because regardless of what the US Supreme Court rules what Trump really wants is The first tariff alliance formed by various countries against China is clearly visible in Mexico Mexico although it speaks actually our reporters also asked me before and I said he could not directly target China So it must be saying that I'm targeting Asia But Asia look at how he's exempting Taiwan one by one So in the end you're still targeting China But on the surface he can't possibly be targeting just China So overall Mexico is already doing it Then the EU plans to do it So the anti-China alliance is about reciprocal tariffs One of the purposes The second is to rebrand the origin So in fact all countries have already signed So the third one is through reciprocal tariffs to achieve a trade agreement and investment agreement So all his money will be received So the focus next year will not be on reciprocal tariffs So we first presented the first argument the second argument said what to do about China so Bessan said I will start to re-investigate whether the past March 1st was properly implemented Then there are also the 232 provisions and so on Semiconductor tariffs can be used He will only target China next year That's what we originally predicted So as expected The focus next year will be solely on China And those who do not cooperate with the US in containing China So the main focus next year will be China and its allies Will this have an impact Of course it will It became like you said I didn' t expect it to be so good we 've been worried about it the IEEPA is the most troublesome Revoking a point is a secondary tariff But you can say a point That is if you are with China and you don 't cooperate with the US I'm just like you the same 232 as China Because 232 has already fallen globally to so you Russia cooperate with China you both 50% increase his national security risk against me This is another type of secondary tariff effect So the main focus for next year will be Section 232 plus the special three pages targeting China That's what Taiwan has heard about the negotiation results There's nothing surprising It sounds like good news but in comparison it's just an advantage The show's team asked the teacher to summarize today's discussion in one minute We can see from here that actually China is still stuck with an old mindset Then to some extent still thinking about oneself messing up various places especially if you are ambiguous and ahead of Hong Kong in the US I will remove you first and promote someone under the old thinking Hainan Free Trade Port is still being hyped internally but when facing external enemies he is very worried for example the most obvious one is Japan he is most worried about funds continuously flowing out of China The return of each country to Taiwan Japan and even future South Korea is a big possibility These countries would return to the track of 20 years ago and Trump's approach is clearly He may not seem to have much of a track record but you can see that he is restructuring a global trade without China so I think this will be the main focus for next year Thank you very much for the teacher's analysis Thank you for the audience's participation Welcome everyone to the new platform GanJingWorld to subscribe to the News Breakdown channel See you Monday to Friday See the full analysis by clicking on the link in the following explanation section or scan the QR code on the right to subscribe to NTD Video For just the price of one month's worth of two cups of coffee you can enjoy the full version VIP level viewing experience news big breakthrough team thanks for your suppor