2026 Housing Forecast - The Surge Nobody Should Ignore #HousingMarket2026 #RealEstateNews #MortgageRates

This is sending shockwaves across the nation that you can't ignore. What I'm about to share with you will completely change your outlook on the 2026 housing market, especially if you're thinking about buying or selling a house. For the first time in many years, we're seeing actual numbers, hard data from top economists, and they're predicting double-digit home sales as we roll into the year 2026. Now, the experts are also predicting that this could be the biggest bounce back in many years. However, there is a twist. You see, the boom will not be spread evenly. For example, Jessica Lutz of the National Association of Realtors, she's a chief economist, she said there is a spread, there is a difference between the have and the have-nots, and we're already entering that into our housing market right now. And at the end of the day, it boils down to you'll either have or have not. You'll either win big or you'll be left out in the dark. Now, she's not the only one. The number one dude, Lawrence Young at the National Association of Realtors, the top economist, his job is only to look at numbers every single day and predict the housing market, what it's going to do. He's forecast a 14% increase for 2026 in home sales. That's no small bump. That's a surge, especially coming off the coattail of 2024 and 2025, which was the slowest year for home sales in 30 years. He's also predicted a 5% increase in new home sales. But what is it that they're looking for? I can tell you, I found out. You see, the early signs of a housing rebound begins with mortgage applications. And mortgage applications are up 31% from last year. That's huge. A third, 31%. These are people that actually want to buy a house. Now, you have to couple that with the job market is stable. Homebuilders are building. They're pushing through. They're not stopping. And the government shutdown that we had for 43 days is over. Everything is up and running. Now, when people apply for a mortgage at a higher rate, that tells us one thing. Their intent is strong. We see it every day in my office. We have 300 to 400 people that contact us on a monthly basis. And they're willing to do whatever it takes to purchase a house. However, they've been waiting on one thing, and it's a big one. Now, if you guess mortgage rates to go lower, you're exactly right. That's what most people have been waiting on mortgage rates to go lower. But here's what the experts are predicting. They're saying that the rates will be a little lower, but they're going to hover around 6%, maybe even a hair lower. But they don't predict them to go any much lower than about 5.85% for the whole year of 2026. Now, this is something that you also have to understand. We're not going to see 3% interest rates. I don't know if we will ever see 3% interest rates again. And most importantly, you have to hang on to us. We're not going to have a housing crash. What we will likely have is a small dip in interest rates as maybe we go into the second or third quarter into the year. It may be sooner than that, and that's going to put the rates likely below 6%. And when we do that, we're going to see even a more surge than what we've seen in the 31% increase in mortgage application. That's still going to keep it around 5.85% or so. But listen, none of this is set in stone. These are just top economists that are predicting all this information. But remember when I told you the have and have nots, that's where it gets real interesting. You see, we're officially in the market of the have and have nots, and it's not just a little gap. It's a big divide. Houses that are $750,000, a million plus, they're rolling pretty fast. The inventory is pretty steady, and those homes are selling. You have to understand this. Most people that are buying those homes, they're rolling equity from their current home, like their first home, their second home, their third home, and they're rolling into a more expensive home. And when you have a lot of equity that you put down on a home, regardless of the rate, it tends to not matter near as much. But what does that mean for the lower end? What does that mean for the small-priced homes? So are you liking this information, this video? So give me a thumbs up. If you haven't already subscribed to the channel, my goal is to help millions of people know and understand and put real estate in its simplest form so it's easy to be able to buy and sell real estate. I'm Wayne Turner. I've been in the real estate business for 30 years. I've bought, flipped, built, sold. I've helped thousands of people buy and sell their houses. And I only share that with you so you can have the comfort and the confidence knowing that what you learn from me is from actual real-life, hands-on experience. You see, for the small-priced homes, there's very little inventory. Ask yourself how many homes in your area, in your market where you are, that you can ride around or look on Zillow or Realtor.com and see houses under $200,000. There's not a whole lot of those homes. And first-time homebuyers make up traditionally the largest number of homebuyers per year to year. So as of right now, they're struggling. Some numbers that you want to hang on to is 21%. First-time homebuyers last year in 2024 only made up 24%. Now they normally make up literally 35 to 40% of all the homes sold in a given year. Normally we're seeing around six to six and a half million homes sold in a given year. But it's more than that, which is kind of crazy. Get this, the median age of a first-time homebuyer is 40 years old. But why is that? You can't help but go, is it credit card? Is it automobile loans? Is it child care? What is it that's holding people back and preventing people from really stepping out there and buying a house? I'll tell you, it's really important for everybody to know, regardless of your age, that there are first-time homebuyers. They're all down payment assistance, special financing assistance out there for people. And it varies per state. One, for example, is USDA, United States Department of Agriculture. You can purchase homes like the one I'm walking around for $275,000. This home's over 2,000 square feet. It's a foreclosure, all brick in Slido, Louisiana. This is just an example of a house that you can purchase. Now, for some of you watching, you may think, Wayne, that's not affordable. Hell, I can't afford $2,400 a month. But there's homes out there just like this. You just have to get a little bit more aggressive and look around and Google things like USDA and watch more of my videos on buying affordable houses, because I'm here to teach you they are out there. Now, here's something really important, whether you're a buyer or the seller. As the market has slown, and we've seen that in 2024 and 2025, home sellers put their homes on the market, and they have to listen to the market. If you put a house on the market, for example, and you're not getting any showings within the first week or two, more than likely, you need to reposition it at a new price of a home. So here's some numbers that you need to think about when you're going to make an offer on a house. Most homes that are on the market, between 61 and 90 days, they're seeing a 9% adjustment in price. Homes that are on the market for 120 days or more are seeing right at a 14% discount on their price. But listen, you have to understand, this is just localized housing for homeowners that are having to make adjustments for their home prices, because you really don't know what your home is worth. You can't go off Zillow or realtor.com or any of that. You can only pull comparables within the market, but even then, a home is only worth what a buyer is willing to pay for it. Are you with me? This doesn't mean it's a nationwide crash. It just means local housing adjusted in price to the local market. Now for national prices, I want to share with you what the economists are predicting. They're saying that home prices are not dropping. As a matter of fact, in 2023, 2024, we've seen an average increase in home values of 3%. They're predicting 2026 to see an average increase of 4%. Now that's nationwide, but I always tell people real estate is hyperlocal. You have to understand the job market is pretty stable. People have massive equity in their home. They haven't been moving. They've been staying put. The average person stays in their home now 12 years, and there's still a low percentage and a number, if you will, of inventory of homes on the market for people to even purchase. So here's something that you have to do and have to know. 2025, the housing market was flat. 2024, housing market was flat. 2026 is shaping up at the end of this last quarter to be pretty strong and to be a good rebound. If you're a buyer out there, you need to get yourself ready. Make sure you pay off your credit cards. Make sure anything you can do, ask for a raise, pay off credit cards, get out of debt, save your money. If you're a home seller, you need to get the house ready. Make any necessary repairs, clean up, box ups, fix up, spruce up, because listen, you don't want to be on the outside when the market really starts to surge. We're going to see that come February of 2026, and it's going to roll pretty strong all the way into at least August, if not October of 2026. So listen, I'm Wayne Turner. Thank you for watching. Give me a thumbs up, subscribe to the channel, always ask questions, leave comments. I'm more than thankful to help you folks in any way I can. Until next time, God bless.