The Exact Date of Next Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve just announced they're printing money again. Not like in the future, not next quarter. No, they've already done it. They've already started. $40 billion every single month. Plus, they shoved about $75 billion on the last day of the year promptly into J.P. Morgan. Now, that's a silver story. We're not going to cover that one today. But why is nobody talking about this? Well, everybody's distracted by the headlines. SpaceX is preparing for a trillion dollar IPO. OpenAI wants a trillion dollar IPO. The biggest private companies in the world are all rushing to sell you their stock at the exact same time. And this exact pattern has happened twice before, in the last 25 years. In 2000, the Nasdaq crashed 78%, if you recall. And then in 2021, 95% of IPO investors lost money. So by the end of this video, you'll understand exactly why the Fed is printing, how it connects this IPO frenzy and the precise timeline for when this party ends. So you can position yourself to profit instead of panic, and then you can be as chilled as Winston back there who did all the research for this. Thank you, Winston. Takes it graciously. Now, you might be wondering why should I listen to this Golden Retriever? Well, Golden Retrievers are quite smart. Now, my name is Felix Prehn. I used to be an investor in Baingkao. I'm also the founder of the Goat Academy. We've taught over 20,000 students. I'm also the co-founder of tradevision.io, and that gives you insane quality news and data, by the way, Wall Street-level data, which is what the point is. And what my mentors taught me, my Wall Street mentors taught me, is what got me here, is what got me retired. And it got me from corporate, you know, working every hour of the day, to hanging out with this guy and having a lot of fun and sharing this with you. So what we're covering here in the next 30 minutes is this. Why the Fed just reversed course and started printing money, 40 billion a month. How the banking system really works and why it's in trouble. And why trillion dollar IPOs are a massive warning sign. And then the exact timeline on the market cliff, how to position your portfolio right now. So let's jump straight into it. Here's what most people missed. While everyone's talking about interest rates and so on, the Fed made a much bigger move. The Fed started something called Reserve Management Purchases, which is a really creative way of saying, we're printing money. How much? 40 billion a month, that's 480 billion a year, if everybody's keeping score. And the simple explanation, okay, imagine your town's bank is running low on cash. The Federal Reserve, the bank for all banks, notices this. So the Fed creates new money, they just make it up. And then they use that new money to buy bonds from those banks. Those banks that are a little bit in trouble. Now those banks have free cash to lend out. That's sort of the theory here. Now, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will tell you this is not quantitative easing, which is what he used to call it. He'll say it is just a technical operation to manage bank reserves. And technically he's sort of right. They're buying short-term bills, not long-term debt. But why does this matter? The Fed's balance sheet is expanding. It's been shrinking for two years. So they've been removing money from the system. Now they're starting to print money again. And bank reserves are at a four-year low. The Fed's emergency lending window hit a record usage. Some crazy stuff happened at the end of the year. So basically in plain English, banks were running so low on cash, they had to borrow emergency money from the Fed, typically a stress signal. So the Fed panicked and they started pumping a bit more money into the system. Wouldn't want those gold shorts at J.P. Morgan to go, you know, without an hour, would we? Now you might be thinking, okay, if the Fed's printing money like this, isn't that good for stocks? In the short term, yeah, absolutely. I mean, we're excited. We're excited to make some money. More money in the system pushes asset prices up. Sucks if you're a salary slave because it's gonna inflate away your earnings. But because the banking system was showing cracks, that's why they are pumping this money in there. So there was a negative reason for the positive money printing. Hear me for less than a minute to explain how banks actually work, because it isn't intuitive, it isn't logical, and I think it's really, really important. And then we go into these massive IPOs, and then we go into how do we position ourselves for that. So once you understand this, all of this will click into place. Let me ask you this. When you deposit, say, $100 into your checking account, big investor you, where does that money go? Well, most people think it sits in the bank's vault or something, right? Yeah, it's my money. The reality is it is not your money. The bank immediately lends the money out to somebody else. That $100 goes to someone else. They now have that $100. So imagine, let's break this down and even simpler. Imagine you give your friend Sarah $100 to hold for safekeeping. You have $100, right? She says you have $100, but Sarah turns around and she gives $90 of that to your neighbor. I should probably wipe this down, shouldn't I? So you give $100 to S, Sarah. She gives $90 to Tom. Now, something magical has happened. You still have $100 in your account with Sarah, right? You can check the piece of paper she gave you, which is what the banks do. Tom has $90 cash in his pocket, which he can actually spend. So the total money in your neighborhood just grew from $100 to $190. Do you follow? Do you follow that system? This is called the fractional reserve banking system. The bank keeps a teeny tiny amount of money, the fraction of your money, and they lend out the rest. Now, here's the wild part. Since March 2020, US banks have been required to keep 0% in reserves, zero. Banks can legally lend out every single dollar you deposit. Now, you're probably thinking, wait, if the bank lent out my $100, what happens if I want to withdraw it? That's the question, bingo. The bank is betting you won't. They're betting that on any given day, only a small percentage of people will want their cash, and they're usually right. But what if everybody wants their money at the same time? What if there's a panic? Well, that's called a bank run, and the whole system collapses. You might remember Silicon Valley Bank from 2023, which was not a long time ago. This was less than two years ago. Tech startups got a little nervous. They started withdrawing deposits. The bank didn't have enough cash. They had to sell bonds at a loss. Word spread on Twitter. It was still called Twitter back then. More people panicked. The bank collapsed in 48 hours. That was the 16th largest bank in America gone in two days. So what am I telling you? So am I just spreading fear and that sort of thing? No. But the Fed printing money, $40 billion, is not about helping the economy. It's about preventing bank runs. It's about keeping enough cash in the system so banks can meet withdrawal demands. How does this work? So the Fed prints money, the green stuff, right? What happens with that money? It goes into banks' reserve. The banks, therefore, feel safe, and they're going to obviously do what they do. They lend the money out or, you know, short silver. So what happens? There is now more money about. What happens when there's more money about? Well, asset prices go up. Money will always seek a return. So stock prices go up. Real estate goes up. That kind of thing. So the stock market rallies. What happens when the stock market rallies? Well, IPOs, founders and investors, are rushing to IPO at the top of the market. And that's exactly where the story is going. And that's exactly how we figure out where we want to be more cautious and where we want to take less risk in this coming, in this year, even. It's not the coming year, it's this year. Winston says, you don't even know what time of the year it is. I know. Okay, before we jump into the trillion dollar IPO frenzy, I'm going to do something even better for you. We're going to run on the coming Saturday, I think it's Saturday, he'll remind me, a live training on how to pick great stocks in 2026 and how to make better investments potentially in 2026. So we're going to take all the reset, the money printing, the inflation, all that stuff, the IPOs, all of that. And we're going to package that together into what is actually a sensible strategy. What is Wall Street telling us we should be doing? We're going to be doing that as a live training, simple rules. This is intended for beginners. If you're more advanced, I think you'll still learn a lot. And it's free. It's felixfrenz.org slash webinar. There's a link down below. Grab yourself a seat. The last time we did one of these, we had like 6,000 people sign up to it. So do it early till the room fills up and show up on time. I'm going to have some fun. But let's talk about the elephants, the elephants in the room. The biggest private companies in the world are all preparing to sell their businesses at the same time. Got SpaceX, trillion in a bit, right? Elon Musk's space company, they're apparently preparing for an IPO in 2026. And we have, by the way, a trillion dollars, by the way, is about 60 times its estimated revenue. Just saying. It's also bigger than the entire economy of Indonesia. Been the largest IPO in history. We've got OpenAI, the chat GPT guys, they're also targeting a trillion dollar valuation, potentially also in 2026. And it's the hottest company, right? But if it's such a long-term investment, why are the early investors so eager to sell to you? All right, nevermind. Moving on, we've got Databricks, 134 billion, apparently, valuation, expected to go public in early 2026. 15,000 customers, 50% revenue growth year over year. This is actually one of the more reasonable valuations on the list, but even reasonable valuations become unreasonable when everyone's buying it. And then we've got Anthropic, another AI rival to chat GPT. Claude AI is what they do. It's pretty good, actually. And about 350 billion as well. We have others. We have Angeral, another company I'm a big fan of, not necessarily of the valuation, and that's about a 30 billion defense contractor. But do you notice a pattern? They're all AI or tech companies. They're basically all AI companies, really. Sky-high valuations, planning to sell themselves in 2026, basically all rushing to the exit at the same time. So why would all these smart founders, and these are really the smartest people in the world, why would the founders and the early investors want to sell it now? Because they're reading the same signal I'm showing you. Let's go back to our imaginary friends. Remember Sarah? She has a lemonade stand. Let's say she wants to sell shares of her lemonade business to the neighborhood. When do you think is the best time to sell for Sarah? Well, when it's summer, right? And everyone's thirsty for lemonade. And people have money to spend when everyone's excited about lemonade. Now, when nobody's worried about winter, might be another way of looking at it. So when's the worst time for her to sell? January, probably, but nobody wants lemonade. People are broke. So they just spend everything on Christmas. And when everyone's scared about the future, it's dark out there. Company founders and early investors are smart people. They're some of the smartest people in the world. They wait for the perfect window. Stock prices are high, so you're in a bull market. Investors are optimistic. Money is flowing in. The Fed's printing it. Thank you. Valuations don't really matter anyway because this time is different, right? This is called market timing. And history shows they're usually right. Now, the problem is that perfect window is often right before the peak, before everything reverses. So let me give you two movies where we've seen this before. The dot-com bubble. I started investing in 1999. That was not good timing. It was a bit harsh. There were, wait for it, 457 IPOs in 1999. They all had dot-com in the title. That's really all that mattered. And it was an insane place. The stocks were doubling every day and companies with zero revenue were worth billions. 86% of these IPOs were losing money. Nobody cared. It was the new economy. This time is different. You tool, you don't understand it. You know, that kind of thing. Internet changes everything. The old rules don't apply, you know. But like, you can replace the word internet with AI right now. So the NASDAQ, well, it went down 78%, which was not pleasant. Lost $5 trillion in wealth. Pets.com, Webfan, eToys. You remember these names? Anybody remember them? Put in the chat. They disappeared, right? Little bit closer to home. 2021, the Fed printed $4 trillion. So tech stocks went nuts. And we got new IPOs. We got things like Roblox. We got Bumble. We got Rivian. We wrote Coinbase. Everybody was excited. Rivian raised $12 billion with practically zero revenue. It was worth more than Ford and General Motors. And then basically no revenue. Why? Well, it was the next Tesla. You could have just bought Tesla. That was a different story. I was guilty of getting caught up in some of this myself. Now, by 2023, only 5% of the companies listed were trading above their IPO price. Read that again. 95% of people who bought IPOs in 2020, 2021 lost money. So the IPO frenzy wasn't just coincidentally near the market top. It was the top. And right now we're staring at the biggest IPO wave in history. So why would you think this time is different? Let me connect all the pieces for you. Three stages. Stage one, you get a bit of economic weakness. The economy slows down a little bit. Banks need more reserves. That just happened. The Fed starts cutting rates. They've been doing that. The Fed then begins injecting money. They print money. That's where we are right now, right? This is us now, right? The stutterer's gonna get me a ban, doesn't it? That's a joke stutter, by the way. Apparently it isn't funny. I've been told many times, but then, you know, I'm German, I'm not meant to be funny. Stage two, you get the money party, the liquidity party. New money floods in. Stock prices rally really, really hard. Valuations go up. PE ratios go up. Everybody feels like they're genius, right? Risk assets, like the meme nonsense, goes to the moon. That's where we are beginning to go right now. And that means we could go much higher. So I am almost fully invested. Why? Because I see this market going much higher. Midterms coming up. We've got money printing. We've got lower interest rates coming in, right? Inflation's gonna go down because of what? Well, Venezuelan oil will help in about two years. Cynic. And actually, my Venezuelan friends are very happy about it. So I hope it's a good thing for them. Hope they get the stability and the peace that they deserve. What was the next thing I was gonna mention? Oh yeah, AI is gonna make stuff cheaper. So inflation is actually gonna be a deflationary problem, but that's a whole nother topic for another day. Smart money right now is seeing the peak coming. Private companies are rushing to do the IPOs with crazy valuations. And retail investors, you and me, I'm that guy, we buy everything, right? Because we wanna be early. We wanna, did you get your IPO? How much did you get in the IPO? Are you buying the IPO fees? No, don't. Just don't bother with IPOs. Why? Because the music stops after. So the IPO wave is being announced. It hasn't happened yet. So what are we watching for? Well, it says Q2 2025 right now. That's smart, isn't it? It is January 2026 as I'm recording this. I think the market's gonna go a fair bit higher. Money printing, all that stuff is gonna be good for us. I think it's likely that the beginning of the year is gonna be quite good. The first major IPOs will be good. Excitement will be at peak levels. Valuations are all gonna go gaga. And that's the danger zone, right? Now, six months, this is something most people don't understand. If you've ever done any venture capital, the real pain point is there's something called a lockup. So after the IPO, you have six months in which you cannot sell if you are an early investor or a founder or an employee of these companies. That means six months after the IPO, those guys start to sell. That also then brings us into midterms, which could be a big wobble depending on how they go. So I'm looking at a late 2026 cliff-ish. And quite frankly, I love those. Why? Because it's an opportunity. It's an opportunity to buy the better companies at a lower valuation rather than panic about what could have been. Now, there's also something in the presidential cycle. So we're in year two of presidential cycles. Usually not a great year for the market. A lot of uncertainty around midterms and that sort of thing. Usually a realization that the new administration doesn't do anywhere near as much as we thought. Although, they kind of proved us a little bit wrong on that over the weekend, didn't they? That was quite something. And the oil majors are rallying as I'm recording this, which makes a lot of sense. I put a whole list of companies who will benefit from this on my X account, by the way. And there's an article over there. I put out the day they nabbed the bugger. And then in year three, typically you get a much better market performance of the presidential cycle. So there's a bit of data. It's been 90% accurate since 1933. I'm not saying past performance guarantees, future performance and so on, especially with this president you got in there because he's a little bit of an unusual one. So what's the playbook? I stay automated. I have stops on all positions. And I keep my position sizes relatively small. Although I'm not a fan of selling winners too early, but we have stops on everything. Start looking at the higher quality companies when they become cheaper. And we're already seeing that actually. Some of the big tech companies are looking pretty reasonable right now. ARKK is sort of a canary in the coal mine. When it goes up a lot, this is Cathy's little thing. When it goes up a lot, I get worried. When it starts falling, I think there is some opportunity coming up. But yeah, watch for the major IPOs. If you get huge pop-ups in price the day after they list, that makes me worried. And when your barber starts talking to you about your SpaceX stock or his, then you should start getting worried. And if the Fed stops printing money, quite frankly, we're really in trouble. I don't think that's gonna happen, but could happen. And when you start seeing the ARKK ETFs, so the loony bin of stocks, falling, or the S&P holds up, that tells you the market is leaving risk and is entering reliability. And that's kind of the pivot we generally wanna fall. What do I do? This is my to-do list, my don't-do list. It's not yours. You gotta use your own brain and so on. I don't buy IPOs. Actually, I just don't buy IPOs. That's simply the reason. And I'll tell you why. There are about 5,000 stocks listed in the US, give or take, that I could buy for which I have years of audited returns, proof that management is doing what they said they were gonna do or not. And I could buy any of those at any given day. So now you're adding one extra stock and you're saying, that extra stock deserves my attention more than the other 5,000. It just doesn't make any sense to me. The risk reward is the greatest. I always ask myself, why are the insiders selling? Why are the investors, who are the smartest people in the world, why are they selling to me now? Why have they decided to honor me with being their exit liquidity? As in, I'm giving them the money so that they can go off and buy another island. So I'm not a fan of IPOs. So I just say, don't get caught up in the FOMO. Doesn't matter if you miss things. If you invest for a long time, you realize it's a wonderful world. There are more opportunities you can ever take advantage of and you will miss out on most of them and that's perfectly fine. Look at valuations. 60 times revenue valuations, which will be a rumoring ad right now. That's bonkers. It's not an investment, in the short term at least. SpaceX, by the way, I think is personally a better business than the OpenAI thing because I think all the AIs basically do the same thing. So there's massive competition there. Whereas SpaceX, they've got, I don't know, what is it? 5,000, 9,000 satellites up there or something. That's a pretty hard thing to do. And the US military is about to put their Starlink in most planes and so on. So I think that's a real, actually real physical moat, just getting that many satellites up there. That's a hard thing to do. So I actually like that business better. So that valuation make a little bit more sense down the road. And think about it, there could be the internet service provider and the mobile phone service provider for the world without having to put up a single mast, right? So kind of makes a lot of sense. This time is never different. And please, please, please don't panic sell at the bottom. There will be a bottom. I'm not saying it's gonna be necessarily this year. I'm just saying there will be one. I think the likelihood that it's coming after these IPOs is very great. Unless the government gives even bigger tax cuts, prints even more money, and then we're just kicking the can down the road. But it's a normal thing for the market to crash. It is a normal feature. It's not a bug. It's something you have to get used to. So at the moment, the Fed printing is gonna support the market. The trillion dollar IPOs will make people very excited. We might get some really seriously higher highs in the market this year, but there are a warning sign. And there is a correction likely. I would say more end 2026. Depends a little bit, I think, how the midterms go. If Trump loses his majority, that could be bad because it would prevent him from doing a lot of things. And the market generally at the moment likes Trump for being very market supportive, right? I mean, rare earths and all that stuff, right? A lot of like money handouts to businesses, essentially in terms of regulation and literal subsidies or guaranteed prices and so on. So if you wanna come and join, this is not something we do anymore, by the way, so that's not gonna work. But if you wanna come and check our live training on Saturday, we will talk about how do we make 2026 a better year? What do we buy in 2026? How do we decide what we do to buy in 2026? I'll also walk you through some of the really cool tools and indicators that we use internally. Go to Felix Wenzel Oxnard's training, grab yourself a free seat. If you enjoyed this video, if you felt there was some value in it, shock, horror, then share it with a friend, share it with a golden retriever, and I wish you a beautiful, wonderful, successful start of 2026. And may it be the year where your investment really takes off because you are now smarter and better informed and better skilled. All the best. If you invest in the stock market right now, all I'm about to show you could either make you a fortune or cost you everything you've worked for in 2026. 2026 is shaping up to be a once in a decade.