SpaceX Starship is finally Launching Into Orbit for the First Time. Here's Timeline!

It's not just us. The entire world is now watching Starbase. This is where SpaceX is preparing for a historic leap, sending Starship into a true orbital flight for the very first time, potentially with flight 13. And this isn't just speculation. Elon Musk has hinted at this goal multiple times. More importantly, flight 12 is expected to lay the final groundwork for that orbital push with several critical tests that SpaceX has never fully detailed in public. So, the big question is, will Flight 13 actually make history, or are there still massive challenges standing in the way? Let's break it all down in today's episode of Alpha Tech. So far, Starship has already flown 11 times, yet not a single flight has seen the upper stage fully reach orbit. Meanwhile, Blue Origin's New Glenn has only flown twice. To be fair, its upper stage reached orbit on the very first flight, and on the second mission, it not only successfully deployed NASA satellites, but also pulled off a clean booster landing on a drone ship. A lot of people love to cling to this comparison and use it as a weapon against SpaceX to criticize it, to mock it, to talk it down. But, ironically, those attacks often end up highlighting SpaceX's achievements even more. First of all, New Glenn's upper stage isn't a spacecraft. It's simply a vacuum optimized second stage, similar to Falcon 9's second stage or any traditional rocket. Expendable, used once and done. Starship's upper stage, on the other hand, is a massive vehicle, 9 m in diameter, over 50 m long, designed to do far more than just deploy satellites. And crucially, it's built to be reusable. And as for the new Glen booster, sure, it has landed on a drone ship once. That's something Falcon 9 has been doing weekly, sometimes even daily. Meanwhile, SpaceX's Superheavy has already landed three times on Mechazilla, something no one else on Earth has ever done. Yes, Starship hasn't reached orbit yet because SpaceX's engineers designed it from the ground up, not by copying or adapting traditional launch vehicle designs that already existed. And just look at the progression flight by flight from ITF-1 all the way to ITF-11. We've gone from vehicles losing control to violent mid-air explosions to Starship successfully deploying payloads on suborbital trajectories, surviving brutally harsh re-entries almost flawlessly and even pulling off fully controlled landing maneuvers. This program isn't standing still. Starship is growing up and it's doing so at an incredible pace. If this momentum holds, then realistically just two or three more flights could be enough for SpaceX to hit that ambitious milestone, sending Starship into orbit for the first time. And this is something Elon Musk clearly anticipated. In one tweet, he said, "Starship catch is probably flight 13 to 15, depending on how well V3 flights go. But that target was set before booster 18, which had been prepared for flight 12, suffered a rupture at Massie. Now that schedules have slipped, SpaceX will almost certainly recalibrate its goals for the upcoming flights. That means a ship catch on the tower could be pulled earlier, potentially anywhere from flight 12 to flight 14. However, under the original plan, Starship was supposed to reach orbit before attempting a tower catch. So, will it happen on flight 12? Definitely not. Because on flight 12, SpaceX's top priority will be validating the upgraded V3 structure and systems. That includes the increased thrust from six brand new Raptor 3 engines on Starship. Yes, SpaceX has said these engines have already accumulated over 40,000 seconds of runtime at McGregor, simulating real flight profiles. But none of that replaces a true flight test. Reaching true orbit isn't just about raw power. It demands engines that operate flawlessly in the harsh vacuum of space with zero extreme vibrations, perfect combustion stability, and reliable inspace relights when needed. Any hiccup could spell disaster. On top of that, to actually reach low Earth orbit, Starship must accelerate to an orbital velocity of roughly 7.8 km/s. But that's only the ideal number in a perfect vacuum with no gravity. In reality, the rocket has to fight Earth's gravity, pulling it back the whole way up, known as gravity drag, and punch through the thick atmosphere at the start, creating atmospheric drag. Together, those losses add up to roughly 1.5 to 2 km/s, meaning the full stack needs to deliver a total delta V of more than 9 km/s from the ground. And that's where the numbers start to get truly mind-blowing. The superheavy booster armed with 33 Raptor 3 engines produces around 9,250 tons of liftoff thrust, already making it the most powerful rocket ever built. After separation, the Starship upper stage takes over with six Raptor engines adding another approximately 1,680 to 1,800 tons of thrust to finish the orbital insertion. On paper, those numbers are more than enough to push a vehicle as massive as Starship into orbit. But the risk is still there. One engine failure at the wrong moment could mean loss of control. And if that happens, it doesn't just hand critics fresh headlines. It also pushes other critical milestones even further down the road. That's why it makes far more sense to validate the new hardware first. Beyond the engines, flight 12 will also test the upgraded hot staging ring and the improved grid fins on Superheavy. On the ship itself, attention will be firmly on the revised heat shield design. If flight 12 goes well, then flight 13 could be the moment the largest spacecraft ever built truly reaches orbit for the first time. And that's not just a nice milestone, it's a fundamental requirement. Without reaching orbit, any activity carried out in space lacks long-term value. A launch vehicle that can't achieve orbit can't reliably deliver payloads, let alone support more advanced missions like on orbit refueling. And according to the current timeline, SpaceX is expected to demonstrate orbital refilling as early as June this year. That alone gives us a pretty clear idea of what flight 13 will need to accomplish. First, SpaceX will need to confirm and close out any issues that might show up during flight 12. If everything goes smoothly, the next step will be to validate stable orbital flight, including Raptor engine relights in space, a critical capability. Second, they'll almost certainly continue testing large-scale payload deployment, likely releasing 8 to 10 Starlink simulators to demonstrate that Starship can deliver up to 150 tons to low Earth orbit. It's also possible, though less likely, that flight 13 could include a long duration orbital test where the ship stays in LEO for an extended period. The main goal there would be to accurately measure realworld propellant boiloff rates, providing baseline data for future orbital refueling sequences. And just to clarify what boiloff actually means, Starship uses liquid methane and liquid oxygen stored at extremely cold temperatures, hundreds of degrees below zero. Even in the vacuum of space with excellent insulation, a small amount of heat from the sun or from the vehicle itself inevitably leaks in. Over time, that causes the propellant to slowly boil and vent away as gas. Left unchecked, you could lose around 0.3 to 0.5% of your propellant per day. That may sound small, but for large, long duration missions, it's more than enough to derail the entire plan. Now coming back to the landing mission. If flight 13 successfully reaches orbit, the re-entry and splashdown profile would change significantly compared to the earlier suborbital flights. From IFT3 through IFT11, SpaceX targeted splashdowns in the Indian Ocean, thousands of kilometers away from Starbase. That choice was all about safety, keeping debris far from land while collecting baseline re-entry data with minimal risk. With flight 13, SpaceX could opt for a much longer trajectory, allowing the ship to complete one or even two full orbits before de-orbiting. The most practical option would be re-entry over the Pacific Ocean with splash down farther west, possibly near Hawaii or the central Pacific. This would allow SpaceX to test the heat shield at a different angle of attack and gather longer duration thermal data during re-entry. A more ambitious scenario would push the trajectory even further, enabling re-entry over the Atlantic Ocean with splash down to the east, potentially near the African coast or the central Atlantic. That would require higher delta V to complete more orbits, possibly 3 to 5, but it would be a critical test of downrange return capability. Ultimately, that kind of profile is a stepping stone toward bringing Starship back to land, returning for direct recovery at Starbase or Florida once tower catches mature around flight 15. And next comes flight 14, which I see as the third flight of the year, potentially taking place sometime between June and July. This is where SpaceX's original vision as outlined by Elon Musk really comes into focus. Catching both Starship and Superheavy with the tower. Under the current plan, pad one would be used to catch Superheavy while pad 2 would handle the Starship landing. In this scenario, both stages return to Starbase and are caught by Mechazilla's arms. That means both launch towers may need to operate simultaneously. Pad one receiving the booster while pad 2 prepares to catch the ship. Each tower is optimized for its specific stage and pad 2 will need time to transition from launch operations to recovery mode. The biggest challenge in this mission is the ship itself. Starship travels much farther down range than the booster and endures a far more severe atmospheric re-entry. SpaceX will need absolute confidence that the vehicle remains structurally sound with the heat shield performing flawlessly. The condition of the ship after re-entry will directly determine whether a precise and safe tower catch is even possible. If successful, SpaceX would become the first aerospace organization in history to recover both stages of an orbital class rocket. And if all systems perform as intended, reuse could follow almost immediately, potentially on flight 15, where ship 43 or ship 44 might become the first reused Starship prototype that would finally unlock the long promised potential of full and rapid reusability, dramatically lowering launch costs and pushing flight cadence to an entirely new level. Now, just a quick question. How many Starship launches do you think SpaceX will pull off this year? My personal guess is seven. What about you? Drop your prediction in the comments below. That said, the total number of Starship launches in 2026 will depend heavily on how quickly SpaceX can overcome the remaining technical challenges and establish reliable reusability. First, if the first Starship V3 flight goes smoothly, SpaceX could realistically reach 10 to 12 missions this year. But any major failure would almost certainly introduce delays. Second, reuse and mission cadence are absolutely critical for lunar ambitions. To support the large number of tanker flights required for the Aremis program, Starship needs to achieve a steady launch rhythm. Ideally, one flight per month or more. Production capacity also plays a key role. If rapid reuse isn't achieved, building new vehicles could become the bottleneck. A successful first V3 flight would pave the way for booster and ship recovery attempts in the missions that follow. And once SpaceX can reliably catch both stages, full reusability becomes real, removing hardware constraints for the rest of the year and opening the door to a much higher flight Great.