SpaceX Is Ready For Testing Starship Flight 12 BUT... What's different for 2026! Space Weekly #27

SpaceX is pressing ahead toward flight 12 with active preparations and testing already underway. The road map for Starship through 2026 has also come into focus. NASA has confirmed a launch day for Artemis 2. Though whether it holds remains to be seen, and China has just unveiled a massive investment in reusable rockets, clearly inspired by SpaceX. Let's break down this week's top stories in today's episode of Great SpaceX. The countdown to the new year is complete. Now the focus shifts to the countdown for flight 12. SpaceX is making strong progress on the final section of its launch system as it prepares for the next Starship launch, which is scheduled for later this month. We are still in the early days of January. Yet with each passing day, concern continues to grow about whether Starship Flight 12 can realistically launch in the near term. Expectations were high entering the new year, but recent developments have placed the schedule under increased scrutiny. At present, Starbase appears to be in an unusual transitional phase where critical hardware is complete, but has not yet begun moving through the next stages of testing and integration. Both B19 and S39 have completed production. Under normal circumstances, this would signal that preparations for rollout and testing were imminent. However, neither vehicle has moved so far. At the same time, multiple road and runway closures have been announced. Yet, these closures have been tied primarily to test tanks rather than flight hardware. This has created an odd sense of pause where activity is clearly ongoing, but progress toward flight 12 seems slower than expected. That said, this lull may be misleading. SpaceX appears to be laying the groundwork for a series of rapid and decisive steps, and recent developments suggest that momentum is beginning to build again. One of the most significant milestones is the completion of the SQD system for pad 2. In the early morning hours of January 6th, SpaceX rolled the SQD arm extension toward pad 2. Observers quickly noted that this section appears to be the same unit that was previously assembled at the Sanchez site, indicating that it had been prefabricated and was ready for final installation. By late morning on the same day, a massive crane was brought in to lift the arm extension into place. The operation involved carefully aligning the new section with the portion with the portion that had already been assembled the previous month. This process was visible from multiple camera angles around the launch site, providing a clear confirmation that SpaceX had reached a critical stage in pad 2 readiness. Previously, the first section of the SQD had been installed, but that earlier installation seemed to consist primarily of the foundational support structure. It provided the necessary mechanical backbone, but it didn't include the systems responsible for actual vehicle surfacing. The newly installed section is very different in both appearance and function. This new portion of the SQD is responsible for the core operational tasks, including propellant transfer to the Starship vehicle. That role is immediately evident from its denser and more intricate pattern, intricate design. Compared to the simpler support structure below it, this section features a complex arrangement of piping, valves, and an interface panel that will connect directly to the ship. These elements are essential for fueling operations and represent one of the final missing pieces of the pad 2 ground system. Many observers believe that this installation may mark the completion of the last major component required for pad 2 to become fully operational. If that assessment is correct, then the ground system is either ready to enter service or prepared to undergo final integrated testing. In either case, this development strongly suggests that SpaceX is nearing the point where launch operations can begin in earnest. Before any vehicle can be stacked at the launchpad, however, both stages must pass through the Massie test site. In a previous update, SpaceX rolled the shift apt to ring section to Massie and placed it on the test tank B18.3. This move was widely interpreted as preparation for stress testing related to hot staging. The purpose of this configuration appears to be evaluating how the ship aft section performs under extreme loads that simulate hot staging conditions. Hot staging introduces unique structural stresses due to the ignition of upper stage engines while the booster is still attached and validating this capability is critical for future flights. Evidence now suggests that this test phase may have concluded. Around noon on the 6th, the large crane returned to the site and attached to the tank section. The crane then lifted the ship aft section off test tank B18.3. While SpaceX has not released any official results, the absence of visible damage or extended troubleshooting strongly indicates that the test was successful. If the test met its objectives, then it likely confirmed that the ship aft section can withstand the intense forces associated with hot staging while bearing the mass of the upper stage. This would represent another important validation step for the starship system. With that work complete, both the ship aft section and test tank B18.3 have likely fulfilled their immediate roles. They are expected to depart Massie or be relocated within the area to clear space for testing the actual flight 12 prototypes. The next major milestone everyone is waiting for is cryogenic testing of the flight hardware. The key question now is which vehicle will roll first, B19 or S39. Each option carries different implications for the overall test flow and schedule. If B19 rolls to Massie first, it could complete its cryogenic testing relatively quickly. That would free up time later in the process for S39 to proceed through its own steps without overlap. Alternatively, if S39 rolls first, it could complete cryogenic testing while B19 remains at the production site. Afterward, B19 could arrive at Massie for its own tests, while S39 returns to the launch site for engine installation and preparation for static fire testing. In practical terms, both sequences are workable. Each offers efficiencies depending on how smoothly testing proceeds. However, there is a strong argument in favor of rolling B19 first. Doing so could allow for two consecutive static fire tests, one for the booster and one for the ship, in a clearer and more predictable sequence. More importantly, prioritizing the booster reduces risk to the schedule. If issues arise, history suggests that rebuilding or repairing a booster may be faster than addressing major problems on a ship. The experience with B18 demonstrated how unexpected complications can introduce delays and minimizing similar risks is a sensible approach. Of course, the hope remains that neither vehicle encounters serious issues and that testing proceeds smoothly. Still, contingency planning is essential when working with a system as complex as Starship. In addition to vehicle movement, SpaceX is likely still working to complete the support structure at the test platform. At present, the platform appears to consist of a relatively basic framework. It remains unclear when the company will finalize this structure or what additional systems may be integrated before testing begins in earnest. During this preparation phase, static fire tests are clearly expected at both ends of Starbase. These tests will showcase the power of the Raptor 3 engines while also serving as validation for recent upgrades to the test infrastructure and launchpad systems. Each firing provides valuable data and helps confirm that recent modifications perform as intended. Ultimately, however, the most important question remains the schedule. With visible progress at both the Massie test site and launch site, attention naturally turns to when Starship Flight 12 might actually lift off. SpaceX has a well-earned reputation for accelerating timelines in ways that often seem improbable. If the first major hardware roles occur during the first half of the month, cryogenic testing for both stages could realistically take place by midmon. Because the booster and ship are tested at different locations, some of this testing could occur in parallel. If cryogenic tests conclude successfully by the third week of the month, only a few additional days would be needed for inspections, data review, and final preparations. Under this scenario, a launch attempt in the final days of January remains technically possible. A late January launch naturally raises skepticism. The timeline is aggressive, and any unexpected issue could push the schedule into February or beyond. Still, SpaceX has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to compress timelines once all the necessary pieces are in place. It's also worth remembering that not long ago, many doubted that B19 could be completed as quickly as it was. Yet, SpaceX set a new internal record by finishing the booster in just 28 days. That achievement serves a reminder that conventional expectations do not always apply at Starbase. Opinions on the launch date will continue to vary and debate is inevitable. What remains consistent is the broad support for Starship Flight 12 and the anticipation surrounding its outcome. Enthusiasm for this flight reflects not just interest in a single launch, but belief in the broader vision behind the program. Beyond flight preparations, progress continues across other areas of Starbase. At the production site, construction of Gigabay remains in full swing. The lower levels of the structure are now clearly taking shape and work continues steadily upward. This is evident in the rising height of the construction towers, which are now approaching the elevation of the offices at top. The mega bays. Construction at Gigabay continues with additional sections still to be erected and the towers likely to be raised again to reach their final height. Once the main structure is complete, work will shift to interior systems, including heavy equipment, assembly stands, work platforms, and offices, transforming Gigabay into a high volume Starship production hub. Elsewhere, newly built composite overwrapped pressure vessels have been moved for testing at the Massie site. These redesigned COPVs, marked by a red paint scheme, are built to withstand higher pressures following lessons learned from earlier incidents. Thorough testing will be critical to validating their improved durability and performance. At the launch site, Pad 1's tank farm is being dismantled and cleared with several tanks removed and potentially relocated to Florida for use at other SpaceX facilities. Even without launches, constant upgrades and reconfiguration at Starbase underscore SpaceX's focus on long-term readiness and continued evolution. What is SpaceX up to now? The company has just made a notable move at Massie, signaling the start of a new and highly anticipated test. Another major industry development is the confirmation of the launch date for NASA's SLS Artemis 2 mission. Be sure to stick around at the end. You get a special message directly from me. All right, let's start the episode. In the final road closure update of 2025, expectations were not met as neither B19 nor S39 moved according to the anticipated schedule. Instead, seeing major flight hardware roll out, attention shifted to a far more unusual piece of hardware, a previously unseen ring section. This section consists of two distinct components, the ship skirt and the can crusher interface. This configuration had never appeared in testing or production flow before, which immediately raised questions about its role and purpose within the Starship program. The answer became clearer through SpaceX's next move. At noon on the 2nd of January, using a crane system, SpaceX unexpectedly lifted this ring section and carefully placed it on top of test tank B18.3 at the Massie test site. Test tank B18.3 is the same structure currently being used for hot staging validation, and notably, the ring section was positioned directly on top of the hotstaging assembly itself. Later that afternoon, the large crane was removed, clearing space for smaller cranes to move in and begin work on the newly installed connection points. At first glance, this decision appeared counterintuitive. The hot staging structure is already the highest structural component of the Super Heavy booster. Under normal circumstances, nothing is installed above it until the ship is stacked for a flight attempt. That raised an obvious question. Why place anything on top of it? Now the key lies in the identity of the ring section itself. This hardware represents the aft section of the ship, including the skirt and interface that physically connects the ship to the booster. By placing this section on top of B18.3, SpaceX is almost certainly validating the mechanical, structural, and loadbearing interface between the two stages. This suggests that the connection between the booster and ship in V3 of Starship may differ substantially from earlier versions. The booster already incorporates a completely redesigned hotstaging system, and the ship is also expected to feature modifications within its engine bay to properly integrate with this new architecture. The interface between the two stages is therefore a critical area where even small design changes can have major consequences. These changes will directly affect flight performance, structural margins, and operational reliability. Waiting until a full flight stack is assembled to evaluate this interface would introduce unnecessary risk and delay. By testing these components at the Massie site, SpaceX can identify issues early, validate assumptions, and refine the design before committing to full vehicle integration. Some observers believe that this test goes beyond simple fit verification. Stacking these two components may also represent an early stage stress test. The ring section effectively simulates the presence of the ship, allowing engineers to apply downward force and evaluate how the hot staging structure responds under load. It's possible that additional mass will be added during test during testing to replicate the forces experienced during a fully stacked configuration. This would place significant stress on the hot staging assembly and provide valuable data on its structural behavior under extreme conditions. Understanding why this matters requires revisiting the hotstaging design itself. SpaceX redesigned this system with inspiration drawn from the Soviet N1 rocket which employed a relatively simple and direct hot staging approach. The advantages of this design philosophy include improved heat and pressure dissipation, reduced structural mass due to the elimination of jettisoned components and lower overall system complexity. Reducing complexity brings additional benefits. It simplifies manufacturing, accelerates production timelines, improves operational efficiency, and reduces refurbishment time between flights. All of these factors are essential for SpaceX's long-term goal of high cadence, fully reusable launch operations. However, simplicity also introduces new concerns. The hot station structure is now the direct loadbearing interface between the booster and the ship. When fully stacked, the ship alone weighs over 100 tons when empty. Once fully fueled, the mass supported by this interface can approach 1,300 tons. That load must safely be carried through every phase of ground operations, launch, ascent, and stage separation. Ensuring that the structure can handle these forces repeatedly without fatigue or failure is absolutely critical. This makes stress testing at this stage not only logical but necessary. The data gathered from these tests will directly influence the design and construction of future boosters, including B19 and those that follow. This testing campaign may serve another purpose as well. Previously, structural previous structural stress tests, particularly those involving B18, encountered issues that required redesigns and reinforced components. Lessons learned from those events, can now be applied proactively, helping to ensure that future stress tests proceed more smoothly and yield cleaner results. At present, it's not clear when the full stress testing sequence will take place. Such testing will require a properly configured test rig and carefully controlled conditions. Meanwhile, January is already underway and pressure is building on SpaceX to maintain momentum. The primary focus remains preparations for flight 12. Both the booster and ship assigned to this mission are structurally complete. S39 was recently revealed in a striking moment behind dense scaffolding inside Meabay 2, offering a glimpse of the vehicle's progress. Even so, both vehicles will likely remain on hold until testing at Massie is completed. Given the current pace, a February launch window now appears more realistic than January. Predictions about the exact launch date remain open, and viewers are encouraged to share their thoughts. Turning now to another major topic, let's discuss the Aremis 2 launch timeline. Late last year, NASA officially confirmed that the earliest target date for Artemis 2 is February 6th. This confirmation was delivered through a brief agency statement by Bethany Stevens, a spokesperson for NASA's communications team. Importantly, she emphasized that the date remains subject to change depending on the final assessments of flight readiness. These assessments include evaluations of the spacecraft, launch infrastructure, flight crew, and operational teams. To account for potential issues, NASA has established a launch window extending into April. Comparisons between Artemis 2 and SpaceX Flight 12 are inevitable. Which mission will launch first remains an open question and one that continues to fuel discussion. From NASA's perspective, confidence in a February launch appears strong. Prior to confirming the date, Bethany Stevens stated that Artemis 2 continues to make steady progress. She also revealed that vehicle rollout could occur in less than 2 weeks. That statement places roll out firmly within the first half of January, making this month a critical testing period. Once the vehicle reaches the launchpad, NASA will begin final integrated testing of the entire system. This includes propellant loading tests for both the core stage and upper stage, which rely on liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen. These tests are essential for validating fueling procedures, thermal behavior, and ground support equipment performance. Following propellant testing, a static fire test is widely expected to occur around the 3rd or fourth week of January. This test will verify engine performance and performance and confirm that the vehicle can safely proceed toward launch readiness. NASA has made it clear that these tests are designed to gather actionable data. If any concerns arise, the vehicle can be rolled back to the VAB for additional work. This flexibility is a key part of NASA's riskmanagement approach. Overall, NASA has begun 2026 with cautious optimism. January will be an intense and demanding month as preparations continue for the second Artemis mission. This flight is particularly significant as it will be the first crude lunar mission in more than 50 years. The stakes could not be higher. The Artemis program has consumed tens of billions of dollars and key components such as the SLS, Orion spacecraft, and mobile launcher have faced persistent criticism for slow development, escalating costs, and quality concerns. As a result, the early months of 2026 represent a defining moment. The year 2026 is shaping up to be a defining moment for the global space industry. It's the year that will determine how organizations officially enter the next phase of launch competition. New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron, China's next generation of rockets, and several others all have ambitious plans on the table. So, where does SpaceX and its Starship program fit into this picture? The answer is that SpaceX is preparing for a radical shift. The company has outlined clear and deliberate steps that point to 2026 as a year of complete transformation for Starship. As a result, it's expected to look and operate very differently from what we know today, even within the next year. So, how exactly does SpaceX plan to push Starship forward? SpaceX has been actively testing Starship for nearly 3 years, completing 11 flight tests across two major versions of the vehicle. So far, the Superheavy booster has been successfully caught by the Mechazilla arms three times, while the ship is steadily improving its level of control during landing attempts. That said, challenges still remain. Issues such as composite over pressure vessel failures, propellant leaks, igniter malfunctions, and heat shield damage have caused complications during both liftoff and landing. Based on this foundation, SpaceX is targeting an extremely ambitious 2026. For me, along with the great SpaceX team, this year represents a turning point. It's the year when Starship will no longer be primarily a test platform, but instead will begin refining its capabilities to become a vehicle that delivers practical and measurable contributions to the space industry. So, how does SpaceX plan to make that happen? Before diving into specific missions, we first need a rough estimate. How many Starship flights could realistically launch this year? My personal estimate is eight flights with the primary goal of perfecting Starship's core capabilities. This projection is based on the increasing launch cadence as well as expectations surrounding Starship V3, especially after the approval of the launch pan plan. You're welcome to share your own predictions in the comments section down below. Now, let's begin with flight 12, which is arguably the most anticipated mission in the near term. Flight 12 will be the first flight of Starship V3, making it a critical milestone. This mission will focus heavily on testing newly introduced systems and upgrades. On the Superheavy booster, SpaceX will further validate hot staging and upgraded grid fins. On the ship, attention will center on the revised heat shield design. Both stages will fly with Raptor 3 engines, which represent a major evolution in engine design and manufacturability. In addition to these new elements, objectives carried over from previous flights will remain part of the mission. These include payload deployment and engine relight in space. Maintaining these goals allows SpaceX to build continuity while layering new capabilities on top of proven ones. Due to the number of test objectives, both stages are currently planned to land in the ocean. Even though flight 12 is an experimental mission, success is critical. The outcome of this flight will strongly influence everything that follows. If flight 12 fails, it would suggest that the V3 design or its upgrades are not yet ready for the next phase. In that case, SpaceX will likely need to repeat a similar mission later, which would slow overall progress. Such a setback would not only affect mission goals, but also disrupt the schedule. If the issue turns out to be relatively minor, an early return to flight could still be possible. However, if the failure is severe, such as an explosion or an incident that raises safety or environmental concerns, the resulting investigation could cause much longer of a delay. For now, all eyes are on flight 12. The hope is that it proceeds smoothly and allows Starship to move closer to unlocking its full potential. Let's assume that flight 12 is successful. The next major step forward would then come in flight 13, which is expected to focus on reaching orbit. Why is this mission so important? For any launch vehicle, reaching orbit is not merely a milestone. It's a fundamental requirement. Without orbital insertion, any operations conducted in space lack lasting value. A rocket that can't reach orbit cannot deliver payloads, support sustained missions, or compete in the commercial launch market. As of now, Starship has not officially reached orbit. Meanwhile, other methane fueled rockets including Blue Origins New Glenn and China's Zhu 2 and three have already achieved this capability. As a leading company in the aerospace industry, SpaceX will not want to lag behind in the methylox race. Achieving orbit with Starship is essential. Even though it would not be the first methane fueled rocket to do so, Starship would still stand apart due to its unprecedented scale, payload capacity, and level of public attention. If orbit is achieved on flight 13, the mission will likely feature a different landing profile. The ship could travel farther than before and attempt a landing near the west coast or somewhere in the Pacific. A more ambitious option would involve sending the ship toward the east coast, resulting in a landing in the Atlantic. This would mean Starship completes more than one full orbit around the Earth. Such a mission would be an important test for future efforts to return and land the ship at Starbase. extended orbital duration, thermal exposure, and navigation accuracy would all be evaluated. In addition to reaching orbit, SpaceX will likely continue deploying dummy payloads. Deploying payloads in a true orbital environment is fundamentally different from deploying them on suborbital trajectories. Before carrying real payloads, SpaceX must demonstrate consistent reliability in orbital operations. Given these objectives, flight 13 will need to be just as successful as flight 12 in order to maintain momentum and avoid delays. Next comes flight 14, which I see as the third flight of the year. This mission could mark Starship's first deployment of real payloads. These payloads will most likely be Starlink V3 satellites. This new satellite generation is larger and more powerful than previous versions, and it's designed specifically to increase the performance of the Starlink network. The mass simulators flown so far closely match the size and weight of Starlink V3, suggesting that SpaceX has been preparing for this step. Deploying real payloads will be more challenging than anything Starship has done to date. The deployment maneuvers must be extremely precise to prevent satellites from colliding with one another. Any collisions could reduce network efficiency or cause long-term damage. Performing these operations in orbit adds additional complexity as navigation and timing become far more critical. If successful, this mission would represent Starship's first clear contribution to the orbital economy. Starship version 3 is expected to carry up to 100 tons to orbit, while version 4 could eventually reach 200 tons. This first operational payload deployment would mark the beginning of that capability. Aside from payload deployment, a reminder of the mission would likely proceed in a familiar manner. The ship would probably land using the same approach as its previous orbital flight while preparing for an even more historic achievement. It's also important to note that during flights 12 and 13, the Superheavy booster will likely attempt landings using the Mechazilla arms. It remains unclear which launchpad will be used for these catches. However, pad 1 should be a feasible option by then as its chopstick arms are expected to have received upgrades. These booster catches would serve as a prelude to the first full two-stage landing at Starbase. That groundbreaking moment is what I expect to occur during flight 15. By this point, after demonstrating upgrades and orbital missions, SpaceX would attempt full reusability by recovering both stages at Starbase. This plan likely depends on earlier successes, including superheavy recoveries on flight 12 and 13, while the ship travels farther instead of landing in the Indian Ocean. Under this scenario, both stages would return to Starbase and be caught by the Mechazilla arms. Both towers would likely need to operate simultaneously. Pad one would receive the super heavy booster, while pad 2 would receive the ship. Each tower is optimized for its respective stage and pad 2 would require time to transition from launch operations to recovery. The most critical challenge in this mission would be the ship itself. The ship would travel farther than the booster and endure a demanding re-entry. SpaceX would need to ensure that the vehicle remains stable and structurally sound with the heat shield performing flawlessly. The condition of the ship would directly determine whether a precise and safe landing is possible. If successful, SpaceX would become the first aerospace organization in history to recover both stages of an orbital class rocket. If the systems perform as intended, reuse could follow shortly thereafter. This would unlock the long promised potential of fast and full reusability, dramatically reducing launch costs and increasing flight frequency. As for timing, these four missions would likely take place during the first half of 2026. However, since flight 12 now appears likely to slip into February, this sequence could extend into July. So, what comes next? I expect four additional missions during the second half of the year, focused on one of Starship's most critical capabilities, orbital refueling. Orbital refueling is essential for missions beyond Earth orbit, including journeys to the moon and Mars. Without it, Starship's deep space ambitions cannot be realized. Musk has previously stated that SpaceX plans to conduct multiple orbital refueling tests in 2026 using Starship V3. Earlier updates suggested that this could begin as early as June. However, that timeline now appears more likely to shift to July or August. SpaceX has already made significant progress toward this capability. According to company updates, several milestones have been completed. Hardware for refueling connections has already been installed on S39. These components are expected to be tested during this year's flights to confirm durability before full integration with refueling systems. Because of this complexity, four flights or two refueling demonstrations will likely be required to just establish basic proficiency. Early attempts may not involve seamless back-to-back launches. SpaceX has suggested that one long duration mission could launch first to test propellant storage, followed by a second mission to perform the actual transfer. With all of this in mind, I believe we are heading into a truly pivotal year. The flight count estimates discussed here are based on personal projections and expectations may vary. However, the step-by-step goals outlined represent bold but deliberate plans that SpaceX is clearly committed to pursuing. No matter how the year unfolds, by the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027, Starship will almost certainly look very different. It will no longer be just a test vehicle. It'll be a proven system with demonstrated capabilities and real contributions ready to compete at the highest level. The answer will come within about a year. And if you believe in Starship and want to be part of this journey, let me know with a Starship 26 down in the comment section and let's get started. 92 flights in 2025. That is the pace China has already reached. With that momentum, China aims to close the gap with the US and SpaceX in 2026, especially in the race for reusable launch systems. Billions of dollars are now flowing into new reusable rocket programs to support that push. But this is where the real challenges begin. How realistic are these ambitions and where might they fall short? The expansion of China's aerospace industry is undeniable. This is clearly reflected in its achievement of 92 orbital flights, far exceeding the 68 flights recorded in 2024. For context, SpaceX itself did not pass 90 flights per year until 2023. This growth is being driven by progress across both state-owned launch providers and privatelyowned commercial companies. And both sectors have ambitious plans extending into 2026. Let's begin with the private sector. One of the most prominent examples is Landspace, the company behind the Zhu rocket family. After successfully launching Zhu 2 into orbit and deploying its payload in 2024, Lansspace proceeded with the debut of Zhu 3 in late 2025. This vehicle is a powerful SpaceX inspired design that combines elements similar to both Falcon 9 and Starship. As we observed, Zhu 3 successfully reached orbit but failed during its landing attempt. As a result, Landspace will now aim to redesign and improve nearly every aspect of the vehicle. On the very last day of 2025, the company announced its registration for an initial public offering. This application was officially accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange Star Market as confirmed by Lansspace's IPO status on the regulators website. The move is reportedly intended to raise approximately 1 billion US or about 7.5 billion yuan. This funding will be directed toward expanding launch services for reusable rockets with a specific focus on further development of XU3. The star market is known for its strong emphasis on advanced technology. In the past, participation requirements were extremely strict, particularly for commercial aerospace companies. However, recent changes in Chinese government policy toward the commercial space sector have relaxed these requirements. This has made it easier for companies to build credibility and gain access to public capital markets. As a result, Landspace is not alone. Other firms such as Space Pioneer and Galactic Energy are also planning their own IPOs. It's safe to say that Landspace is demonstrating a very strong level of commitment. The scale of funding being pursued is significantly larger than that of any company mentioned so far. With this level of investment, Landspace is likely to further upgrade its launch and landing infrastructure and may also expand existing platforms or construct new ones. However, the primary focus will be on vehicle production. The company plans to build additional prototypes to increase launch frequency during the coming year with the goal of achieving booster recovery as quickly as possible. That said, before any of this potential can be realized, Landspace must complete a full root cause analysis of the failed landing attempt and implement corrective improvements. These changes will likely be applied across a new batch of prototypes. Looking back at the Zhu 3 debut, most phases of the mission progressed relatively smoothly. Problems appeared to arise when the engine ignited for the landing burn. This suggests that the issue may lie within the engines themselves, which could have been operating near their limits after earlier flight phases. There may have also been leaks within the engine system or associated pipelines. Issues of this nature typically take time to resolve. They require not only immediate fixes, but also long-term reliability improvements, particularly for a vehicle intended for repeated reuse. As a result, the second 3 flight will likely not occur until around the second quarter of the year. Overall, the challenges faced by 3 closely resemble those encountered by Blue Origin's New Glenn. Blue Origin was able to complete a follow-up flight after experiencing problems on its initial mission. This raises an important question. Do you think Landspace will succeed on its next attempt? Let me know with a yes or a no down in the comments below. But before I tell you the answer, let's turn our attention to the state sector. Late last year, China's National Space Program also took a major step toward reusability with the debut of the Long March 12A. China operates many versions and variants within the Long March rocket family. And this year, the country will continue pushing reusability efforts across that lineup. Most notably, the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, which operates under the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, has announced plans to develop a liquidfueled launch vehicle with a diameter of 5 m. This rocket is known as Long March 10A, an upgraded variant of the Long March 10 lunar launch vehicle. The goal of Long Mara is to launch the Mango spacecraft to the Tong space station in low Earth orbit. An initial launch is planned for early this year with the mission intended to help pave the way for the long mar 10's future lunar missions because it targets a lower orbit. Long march 10A is being designed with reusability in mind, something that the original long mar 10 configuration was unlikely to achieve. In terms of design, the original long mar 10 features three boosters in its first stage. Similar to Falcon Heavy, Long March 10A is expected to remove the two side boosters, making it more comparable to Falcon 9, though with a large diameter. Additionally, Long March 10A will reduce the number of stages from 3 to two, further aligning it with Falcon 9's architecture. In this configuration, the vehicle is expected to carry approximately 14 tons to low Earth orbit when reusable, or up to 18 tons in an expendable mode. This represents yet another attempt to follow SpaceX's design philosophy and highlights a broader shift within Chinese aerospace away from expendable launch systems and toward reusability. The advantages of reusability are wellestablished, including lower costs, faster operational tempo, and improved long-term efficiency. SpaceX has demonstrated these benefits for more than a decade, and China now appears to be moving in the same direction. Long March 10A is expected to be the next major step in this transition. While a launch is anticipated early this year, no firm schedule has been announced. Beyond this variant, China has also explored a Long March 10B configuration. Images shared on Chinese social media suggest this version could carry an 11 ton payload to an orbit of 900 km with a 50° inclination. Many observers believe this capability would support deployment of the Guo Wong satellite constellation. In terms of design, Long March 10B is expected to feature two stages with a methyloxs fueled second stage because of its higher orbital target. The vehicle's design would differ from 10A. Renderings show a configuration that closely resembles Starship without side boosters and with an increased overall diameter. It is expected to launch from the Wang spaceport and be recovered using a netbased system. The ambitions behind the long march 10 variants are clear and closely mirror those of private companies such as Landspace. However, unlike private firms, Long Marsh development is directly funded by the Chinese government. Even without publicly stated budgets, it is evident that the level of investment is enormous and likely comparable to that of major US launch programs. With plans of this magnitude, insufficient preparation can easily lead to failure. This risk is especially relevant given the copy based development strategy employed by many Chinese aerospace organizations. While this approach can accelerate progress, it does not guarantee a deep understanding of the underlying technologies over time. Originality may also be diminished. This leads to the central question. Can these investments enable China to surpass SpaceX specifically or the US more broadly? The question matters because while China's plans appear promising on paper, success is far from guaranteed. Comparisons between Zhuche 3 and Blue Origins New Glenn remain largely theoretical. Without effective design changes and operational maturity, further failures remain entirely possible. This uncertainty is reinforced by Landspace's track record. Prior to Zhu 3, the company experienced multiple setbacks. The solid field Zhu 1 mission in 2018 failed. Performance improved with Zhu 2 which introduced methylox propulsion. But the most recent Zhu 2e mission prior to Zucho 3 also ended in failure. As a result, success for Zuchi 3 in 2026 remains highly uncertain. Without careful execution and correct technical decisions, the decisions the program could face significant delays or even major setbacks. The outcome of future flights will heavily influence Landspace's broader strategy. As discussed, the company is investing billions of dollars into this vehicle. Only successful missions will allow these investments to deliver meaningful returns. Failure would instead result in further delays and lost momentum. Similar doubts also surround the Long March 10 program, particularly after China's failed attempt to recover the Long March 12A booster in late 2025. That event highlighted the extreme difficulty of mastering reusable launch technology. These are not isolated cases. China has experienced several other recent failures. In November of 2025, Galactic Energy's Saras 1 rocket suffered an upper stage malfunction that prevented its satellites from reaching their intended orbits, resulting in their loss. Earlier in June of 2024, Space Pioneers Tyong Long 3 rocket experienced a serious malfunction during a static fire test when the booster unexpectedly left the launchpad. This incident has delayed the vehicle's first flight to this day. In contrast, SpaceX continues to demonstrate overwhelming dominance. In terms of launch cadence alone, SpaceX ended the year with 165 Falcon 9 launches and five Starship flights. This total nearly doubled the combined number of launches conducted by all of China. That gap is expected to widen further as Starship operations mature. In the area of reusability, where China is aiming to surpass SpaceX, the difference is even more pronounced. Falcon 9 booster landings have become routine operations. As a result, total landing counts and individual booster reuse records continue to climb. Meanwhile, SpaceX has begun mastering Starship recovery using the Mechazilla arms, which is widely regarded as one of the most complex landing techniques ever attempted. It's also important to remember that Starship is designed for full and rapid reusability, a goal that fundamentally separates SpaceX from all competitors. SpaceX aims to achieve this capability early this year, which would further widen the gap between itself and every rival, including China. SpaceX's operational scale is already immense. Once Starship demonstrates consistent performance, the size and capability of SpaceX's fleet will overshadow nearly every other effort currently underway. Clearly, the reusable space race is becoming more competitive and more exciting. New players are entering the field and it is an increasingly dynamic landscape. China continuing its familiar approach. China continuing its familiar approach of adapting existing designs is attempting to prove its ambitions in a domain where SpaceX currently sets the standard. However, based on current results and the sheer momentum of SpaceX, it remains extremely difficult and possibly unrealistic for Chinese organizations to surpass SpaceX despite their substantial investment and rising launch numbers. Even with visible progress, inadequate preparation could still lead to severe failures and long-term setbacks. That said, the competition itself remains compelling. This year will also see major developments from other players including Blue Origins New Glenn, Rocket Labs Neutron, Stoke Spac's Nova, and others. When these programs are compared alongside China's efforts, the outcome may be far more balanced and unpredictable. Would you like an episode that explores these matchups in detail? Let me know with Let's Do It in the comment section down below. Otherwise, folks, this has been Kevin with Great SpaceX. Don't forget to like the video and subscribe if you haven't already to stay up to date with yours truly on the latest milestones in SpaceX's journey. It's now 2026, so thank you so much for watching.