Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon: We're set up for a stronger growth trajectory in the coming years

David Solomon is here, CEO of Goldman Sachs, and we have a lot of ground to cover with you. That was not where we were going to start, but let's start right there. Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs. Welcome, welcome. Thank you. Nice to see you. Nice to see you guys. Always nice to be here with you guys. We have a confluence of some very stimulative things that make us pretty optimistic about the level of growth that we could see in 2026. I don't know that I would have thrown out 8% nominal. I wouldn't throw out 8% nominal, but I do think that our view on nominal growth this year would be higher than the consensus. You have very, very strong fiscal stimulus. You obviously have the things in the bill that are coming through. You have some stimulus that comes from the deregulatory environment that the administration has created. We obviously have continued AI infrastructure spend that's very, very significant. Plus, you've got productivity gains coming as AI is implemented into the enterprise. It's a relatively constructive environment. Barring, in my mind, some sort of an exogenous event or a change in sentiment that's created either by geopolitics or some other speed bump that we don't see, I think the nominal growth that we see will be ahead of the consensus. I think the tailwinds are pretty constructive in that front. I keep hearing about the expensing thing. The factories that previously wouldn't have been built are being built. Someone's going to make batteries. They didn't even make batteries for their own equipment before now because they can write it off immediately. They're actually starting breaking ground on a factory. I think the expense depreciation benefit is a big benefit to spur investment. There's a lot of talk about investment from U.S. companies and from foreign companies. I think one of the things that we're trying to do, I think everybody should be doing, is tracking what actual investment's occurring and how it's occurring. These things, Joe, and you know this, they take time. To build factories, plan factories, actually get them in place, get them online takes time. We're at the beginning of what is the potential for a much more significant investment cycle. When you're tracking it, what numbers do you see at this point? It's early. In other words, right now, it's more talk than it's actually happening. There are a lot of people making significant commitments. As people follow through, that is a further tailwind for growth. When you talk about the possibility for a multi-year run, I think we're set up where we have the possibility for a stronger growth trajectory for the next few years. We're set up for that. That might not happen. A bunch of exogenous things could soften it, but I think we're set up with a better possibility for that than we've had in quite some time. Can you square this circle for me? The economy looks strong. Yet, on one end we had the Mark Carney speech where the whole world is breaking apart and there'll be new partnerships and complete reshaping of power in the world. On the other end, the president makes this deal with NATO last night and the market goes up. Some people are saying this is just another great example of new cooperation. What's going on here underneath the sheets? We talked about what's going on in the economy, particularly the U.S. economy, underneath the sheets. We're in a geopolitical environment that's more fragile than it's been for some time. We have a president that's got a clear view about how he wants to drive an agenda. He's got a certain style in the context of the way he drives that. I think markets don't like uncertainty. If you just look back over the last couple of days, there's been a variety of narratives that have created a little bit more uncertainty. Then there have been narratives that have followed up that seem to have taken the uncertainty out. I think what's interesting right now is the business environment sets up very well. Business people feel unleashed all over the world and want to invest in their businesses and grow their businesses. They have an environment where they think they really can make progress growing their businesses. You've got technology innovation that's helping people in their businesses and CEOs are very focused on that. Are those U.S. companies or around the world? I think it's around the world. I think what slows them down, and we're talking big multinationals, what slows them down is when there's uncertainty and some of the noise around geopolitics creates uncertainty. One of the things I try to do is I always try to step back and say, okay, what's noise? What's actually substantively going on? I think that's a helpful lens, but on a day-to-day basis, when you're listening to the news, when you're listening to the speeches, if you're sitting here, now there's going to be noise mixed in with the substance. Is it compartmentalized between economic issues and security issues? I think there's a lot of overlap. I think maybe that escapes us sometime. Whether it's Venezuela, that could be really positive for the Western Hemisphere if their oil starts coming out of the ground again. Think about the Middle East and what happened with the peace deal and what could happen in Iran and how the Middle East could play out. Our discussion was whether Greenland was worth it, whether bringing this up, making a big deal about it, spooking the markets, worrying that NATO is going to dissolve because of an attack on a sovereign country. Was all that worth it? Would it be worth it if we did get a Golden Dome and had a greater control of what happens in the Arctic Circle, which is so important? Again, let's get to the substantive issue that you're highlighting. The substantive issue for the U.S. and Europe is Arctic security. That's the substantive issue. If we come out of this with a strengthening of Arctic security for the U.S. and Europe, that will be a good thing for the world. I don't have to debate every discussion and every way that we get there. None of us were thinking about this on Inauguration Day. No one was worried about Arctic security. Arctic security is something that's worth thinking about. There are different ways to get there, but if we wind up with a better structure around that, that would be good both for Europe and the U.S. We don't know at this point what it looks like. You can't have economic prosperity without security. Security is a very, very important economic prosperity, for sure.