SpaceX & BO Lunar Lander Progress Revealed after NASA Chief’s Unexpected Visits…

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman has just announced, I met with SpaceX and Blue Origin to understand the latest plans to accelerate NASA's Artemis timeline. So far, progress from both contractors has raised some serious questions. SpaceX continues development of Starship HLS, while Blue Origin advances work on the Blue Moon Lunar Lander. Yet timelines, readiness, and execution remains uncertain. Now is the moment to review where each program truly stands. Let's find out on today's episode of Great SpaceX. As we know, beginning with Artemis 3, humans are scheduled to land on the moon once again. More precisely, this mission represents the long-awaited return of human explorers to the lunar surface after more than half a century. As the target date draws closer, concerns naturally continue to grow. Technical complexity? At the same time, it's worth acknowledging that NASA has achieved a notable series of successes in recent years. Much of this momentum is being attributed to the agency's current administrator, Jared Isaacman, whose leadership style has been described as energetic, direct, and strongly focused on execution. Since taking office, Isaacman has been actively involved in advancing NASA's major programs, particularly those tied to the Artemis initiative. When it comes to the moon program specifically, Isaacman has consistently expressed determination and optimism. This confidence was made clear during a recent exchange in which he was asked whether American astronauts could realistically return to the moon by 2028, a goal previously outlined by President Trump. Isaacman's response was brief and unambiguous. He answered, yes. That statement was not presented as vague reassurance or political messaging. It was followed by concrete action. Shortly afterward, Isaacman publicly confirmed that he had personally visited both SpaceX and Blue Origin to review their progress and to better understand their plans for accelerating the Artemis timeline. He shared this update on X along with an image that appeared to show him working directly at facilities associated with both companies. In his public remarks, Isaacman emphasized the importance of these partnerships by stating, the capabilities these two partners are pioneering will be essential to returning NASA astronauts to the lunar surface, establishing an enduring presence, and advancing American leadership on the moon and beyond. That phrasing is particularly important because it highlights not only a return mission, but also a long-term strategy. The reference to an enduring presence stands out. It suggests that NASA is not simply aiming to repeat past achievements, but to fundamentally change how humans operate on and around the moon. In that context, the capabilities of the chosen landers become critical. This emphasis strongly favors SpaceX and its Starship human landing system. Because of its size and overall design philosophy, Starship offers capabilities that traditional lunar landers cannot easily match. It's designed to transport very large amounts of cargo to the lunar surface along with crew. This approach enables the delivery of habitats, scientific equipment, and infrastructure in fewer missions. For this reason, Isaacman's statement can be interpreted in two important ways. First, it strongly implies that Starship HLS remains on track and is expected to meet its role in the planned missions. Second, it reinforces the idea that SpaceX will maintain its position as the primary lander provider for Artemis III. At present, no detailed images from Isaacman's visit to SpaceX facilities have been publicly released, particularly from locations associated with Starship HLS production. However, given the timing and the level of public interest, it seems increasingly likely that official images or updates will be shared in the near future. The program is now at a stage where transparency can help build confidence rather than undermine it. It's also worth recalling that several important details about Starship HLS have already emerged through testing activities in 2024 and 2025. Among these were images from inside the airlock corridor, which provided rare insight into the internal layout of the vehicle. Additional testing milestones observed or reported during this period included elevator system tests, airlock hardware demonstrations, and other structural and mechanical evaluations. In a major update released in late 2025, SpaceX announced that it had completed as many as 49 milestones related to its lunar contract. SpaceX also outlined its forward plans for 2026, which included several critical milestones tied to orbital refilling operations. Refilling is one of the most challenging aspects of the Starship architecture, and it's essential for enabling deep space missions including lunar landings. Beyond these technical milestones, SpaceX leadership has repeatedly emphasized the goal of a permanent or semi-permanent human presence on the moon. This long-term vision closely matches Isaacman's own language and priorities. Additional insights into Starship HLS have come from internal diagrams and presentations that illustrate the crew payload area. These materials suggest that the two-stage structure remains a central feature of the design with separate ascent and descent elements integrated into the overall vehicle architecture. Looking ahead, the coming year is likely to bring several major revelations related to Starship HLS. Two key goals stand out. The first is the expected public unfailing of a Starship HLS prototype. This would likely include direct images and official confirmation of the milestones SpaceX has already completed. The second major of progress will involve orbital refilling operations. Unlike some aspects of the program that remain behind closed doors, refilling requires visible flight demonstrations. These missions are expected to take place later this year. Supporting evidence can already be seen in hardware modifications, such as the addition of refilling interface points on Ship 39, which strongly suggests active preparation. There's also ample reason to believe that SpaceX's leadership team remains deeply committed to the lunar program. Gwynne Shotwell has repeatedly addressed Starship HLS progress in discussions with NASA leadership, including former Administrator Sean Duffy. Elon Musk, who is often criticized for prioritizing Mars over the moon, has also made multiple public statements reaffirming SpaceX's lunar ambitions. Late last year, Musk stated SpaceX will lean in big on the moon. He has also repeatedly discussed concepts such as mass drivers on the moon, which would support long-term industrial activity. This year alone, he has referenced lunar goals on multiple occasions. On New Year's Day, in a post celebrating a record year for SpaceX, he wrote, Well done, SpaceX team! On a record year, we grow ever closer to the moon and Mars. In another exchange, when someone described Starbase as the gateway to Mars, Musk replied, and the moon, clearly signaling, continued focus. To make all of this possible, SpaceX must perfect several core Starship capabilities this year. These include achieving consistent orbital insertion, deploying payloads successfully, and executing two-stage landings. The company must also demonstrate key upgrades associated with the version 3 design. Only after these steps are complete can full-scale preparation for lunar missions begin, including uncrewed landing demonstrations and sustained refilling operations. Given the progress outlined so far, along with strong confirmation and institutional support, the question naturally arises, do you have confidence in SpaceX and Starship to deliver Artemis 3 and support the broader moon program? This is a question many observers are now asking. Turning to Blue Origin, NASA's second lunar lander contractor, the picture is different, but equally significant. Blue Origin was included in Jared Isaacman's recent visits, and images released from the tour show the NASA administrator viewing the Blue Moon Mark 1 lander through a large facility window. Based on available visuals, Blue Moon Mark 1 appears largely complete and is believed to be in final testing ahead of an early-year launch on the third New Glenn mission. Blue Origin confirmed this progress in a public statement noting that the lander served as a backdrop during preparations for acoustic testing. CEO Dave Limp provided further detail, describing the completion of direct field acoustic testing as a major flight qualification milestone. The fully integrated lander was encircled by 34-foot speaker towers that generated a near-diffuse acoustic field, replicating the sound environment inside the New Glenn fairing and exceeding 138 decibels. During the test, the lander operated in a flight-like configuration. Its tanks were pressurized with helium and nitrogen, onboard batteries powered the vehicle, and all avionics and guidance systems were active. Forty-three triaxial accelerometers recorded the lander's response during a two-minute exposure at proto-qualification levels. Limp noted that because acoustic loads dominate the vibration environment, this method replaces traditional shaker testing and more accurately reflects real ascent conditions. Looking ahead, Limp confirmed that the lander's next major milestone will be thermal vacuum testing at NASA's Johnson Space Center, a critical step in validating readiness for spaceflight. Most visible progress, however, remains focused on cargo. The critical question is the status of its crewed lander, where future variants such as Mark 1.5 or Mark 2 will be decisive. Sustained demonstrable progress on these designs is essential for any credible role in crewed lunar landings. Under prior leadership, Blue Origin had the opportunity to compete directly with SpaceX for Artemis III. Whether that opportunity continues under Isaacman's administration remains uncertain. Regardless of policy decisions, a crewed lunar prototype must show tangible advancement this year to support any realistic mission timeline. Taken together, these developments underscore the urgency surrounding the lunar program. Isaacman has been explicit about the stakes, stating, To meet President Trump's national space policy objectives, we will challenge every requirement, clear every obstacle, remove every blocker, and empower the team to deliver, and we will do it with time to spare. The statement reflects determination and signals an intent to land a crewed mission within the current presidential term. While words alone do not guarantee success, they set expectations and establish accountability. There is reason for cautious optimism. Compared to periods marked by delays in cost growth, the current approach appears more focused and coordinated. One of Isaacman's most consequential shifts may be his emphasis on unity, not only between NASA and industry, but among contractors themselves. Supportive oversight can often achieve more than constant obstruction. SpaceX illustrates this clearly. In 2023 and 2024, environmental reviews and regulatory delays repeatedly slowed Starship testing. Conditions improved markedly in 2025 following FAA reforms and broader governmental support for commercial launch activity. If this environment endures, companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin will be better positioned to scale rapidly, focusing on execution rather than bureaucracy. The urgency is further sharpened by international competition. China continues to advance steadily in launch systems, spacecraft, and lunar lander development, with stated goals that include crewed lunar landings, South Pole operations, and a moon base in cooperation with Russia. While the U.S. retains key advantages, they cannot be assumed to last without accelerated progress. This is now the most critical phase of preparation for the next era of lunar exploration. Leadership attention has returned at the right moment, and contractors are showing tangible momentum. In the months ahead, further clarity is likely as crewed missions draw closer. For now, all focus remains on the work underway. Leading every competitor is the ultimate ambition behind SpaceX's Starship program. That ambition raises an important question. How is Starship progressing right now? Despite rapid development, many critics continue to focus on one point. Starship has not yet reached orbit, which remains a critical milestone. However, once this goal is achieved, it's expected to mark a true turning point for the program. SpaceX is positioning itself to unlock that breakthrough in the coming months. That moment could arrive on Flight 13, or it may come on another upcoming mission that we will examine in this video. So when can Starship finally reach orbit? Why does this milestone matter so much, and how will SpaceX prepare to achieve it? First, let's examine Starship's competitors. Blue Origin's New Glenn, ULA's Vulcan, ESA's Ariane 6, and several Chinese rockets often described as Starship-inspired, such as Zhuque, have already reached orbit and successfully deployed payloads. These are all large launch vehicles, and some of them directly compete with Starship in the race to develop methane-fueled rockets. More importantly, many of these programs have faced criticism in both the past and present for slow development and delayed launches. Now, let's turn back to Starship itself. It's important to recognize what has already been accomplished. Starship has demonstrated extremely powerful liftoffs, impressive reentry performance, and the successful recovery of half of the system through a catch using the Mechazilla arms. This is one of the most technically demanding landing methods ever attempted. Even so, after 11 flights, Starship has not yet reached orbit. Because of this, recent missions have typically concluded after roughly one hour, with testing focused on ocean landings. During the payload deployment phase, mission notes often indicate that the vehicle will soon descend back to Earth rather than remain in space. It's important to remember that reaching orbit is the baseline standard for any space rocket, only after achieving orbit can more advanced objectives move forward. For Starship, those objectives include completing a full trip around Earth and returning to Starbase, deploying and assembling infrastructure in orbit, traveling farther into deep space, and eventually reaching destinations beyond Earth. This leads to the central question, when will Starship finally reach orbit? Looking at its most recent flights, Starship has already achieved several critical milestones. With Super Heavy, the booster catch using the Mechazilla arms has effectively been mastered. After numerous challenges during the early phase of the Ship V2 era, Starship has demonstrated controlled return and landing, even though the heat shield still requires further improvement. With these milestones in place, SpaceX plans to move on to Starship V3 this year, beginning with Flight 12. However, Flight 12 is very unlikely to be an orbital mission. This flight is expected to focus on testing major V3 upgrades, including new hot staging hardware and grip fins on the booster, a redesigned heat shield on the ship, new engines, and additional system improvements. To maximize the value of these tests, SpaceX will reduce the overall mission complexity. For this reason, Flight 13 appears to be the most realistic candidate for Starship's first orbital attempt. By then, SpaceX will have gained crucial data and operational experience from a prior V3 test flight. This approach also offers the earliest reasonable opportunity to move forward without taking unnecessary risks. This general timeline has been supported by Elon Musk, and in an update last year, he stated Starship catch is probably Flight 13 to 15 depending on how well V3 flights go. While this comment refers specifically to catching the ship, it's important to remember that reaching orbit must occur before a ship catch can even be attempted. This further reinforces the projected sequence. The next major question is timing. At the current pace, Flight 12 will likely need to wait until February to launch. Assuming an ideal turnaround of approximately two months between flights, Flight 13 could take place around April. However, this timeline depends on several important factors. The first factor is hardware readiness. The flight prototypes, including Booster 20 and Ship 40, will need to be produced soon. No major sections have been rolled. Even so, optimism remains high due to the previous 28-day stacking pace achieved with B19, which suggests that these new vehicles could be completed relatively quickly. The second and most critical factor is the success of Flight 12. Why is Flight 12 so important? Well, only a successful Flight 12 allows SpaceX to confidently advance to the next steps, including the first orbital mission. If Flight 12 fails, the schedule for Flight 13 and subsequent missions will be pushed back. In that scenario, Flight 13 would likely become another test flight designed to complete objectives that were not achieved earlier. Flight 12 must succeed, and it will test many systems that are essential for an eventual orbital mission. The most important upgrade is the Raptor 3 engine. Key factors such as thrust performance, navigation integration, and reliable ignition and shutdown must be proven before SpaceX can confidently send Starship into orbit. For example, Raptor 3 must demonstrate the ability to support acceleration to approximately 7.8 kilometers per second or more, which is required to reach orbit. The launch phase will be closely monitored, especially because Ship V2 experienced a series of issues during this portion of flight last year. Next comes the stage separation phase, where the new hot staging system must prove itself under real flight conditions. Although pressure testing has already been completed, after separation, Super Heavy must demonstrate its ability to return safely while operating with its combined engine configuration and upgraded control surfaces. As for the ship, after receiving its initial boost from Super Heavy, it must show that its engines can perform reliably on an orbital-class trajectory, even though it will not reach orbit on this flight. Tasks such as payload deployment tests and engine relights in space will still be conducted. The re-entry and landing sequence will also be carefully observed, particularly the performance of the heat shield, engines, and flaps. These same systems will be critical during Flight 13. The road to orbit is never easy. Still, SpaceX continues to demonstrate strong determination. If you support this effort, you can show it by commenting Orbital Starship. For many observers, the current timeline toward orbit feels disappointing. That disappointment often stems from the number of test flights conducted so far, from past launch and testing failures, from SpaceX's ambitious early goals, or from comparisons with competitors that have already reached orbit. It's worth stepping back to look at the broader context. SpaceX is an industry leader with extensive experience in orbital launches, demonstrated by approximately 600 Falcon flights to date. That level of operational experience is something most organizations cannot match and would take many years to achieve. With Starship, SpaceX is clearly aiming much higher. Unlike traditional rockets, Starship's upper stage is a true spacecraft rather than a simple structure designed only to carry a payload. The upper stage alone is larger than many complete rockets. Because of its expanded role, Starship's payload section houses many critical systems. In the future, it could even become a massive habitat, potentially larger than the ISS, capable of supporting human life. Equally important, Starship is designed to be fully reusable. This means the upper stage must survive reentry, land safely, and be reused. That's why the heat shield system is so large and complex and why it has not yet been fully perfected. Recovering an upper stage requires an extremely demanding reentry profile, along with precise guidance, navigation, and landing control. When Starship eventually carries people and cargo, the difficulty will increase even further. By comparison, most other rockets aim only to reuse the booster and not the upper stage. New Glenn and Zhuhui-3 follow this approach. Falcon 9 achieved booster reuse many years ago. Other vehicles such as SLS and Vulcan do not reuse any stages at all. As a result, those programs focus primarily on reaching orbit as efficiently as possible. Starship, by contrast, is pursuing unprecedented levels of reusability, which naturally requires far more experimentation and testing. From a power perspective alone, Starship has been capable of reaching orbit for quite some time. With 33 Raptor-2 engines, Super Heavy produces approximately 7,590 tons of thrust, which is nearly double that of Saturn V and more than any current competitor. With Raptor-3, thrust is expected to rise to around 9,250 tons, which is more than 2.6 times that of Saturn V. Even the ship itself, despite having fewer engines, generates formidable thrust. Because of this, criticism that's focused solely on Starship not yet reaching orbit often reflects unrealistic expectations on a misunderstanding of what SpaceX is trying to achieve. Those who have followed SpaceX closely for many years tend to understand the scale of the challenge and are willing to wait for success. Once the barrier to orbit is broken, Starship is expected to experience a major breakthrough in the global space race. If Flight 12 and 13 are successful, SpaceX could move on to 14 with the goal of deploying real payloads. These payloads would likely include Starlink V3 satellites, meaning SpaceX would not only expand its constellation but also significantly upgrade it. This would mark the beginning of Starship's true operational phase. With V3, SpaceX aims to deliver up to 100 tons to orbit. In the following years, Starship V4 could increase that capability to as much as 200 tons. This level of performance far exceeds that of any other rocket. Each Starship launch would be significantly more efficient and far more cost effective. This capability is especially valuable for building systems in orbit, which is something many large organizations, including military planners, already recognize. Large payload capacity would dramatically accelerate the process of transporting people and cargo to orbit and constructing space infrastructure. Starship could even become living space itself, forming the foundation for lunar bases, Mars bases, or orbital stations. This is a long-term advantage that no other rocket can currently match. Next would come Flight 15, which is expected to attempt full two-stage recovery and achieve complete reusability. This would unlock major advantages in cost reduction, launch cadence, and operational flexibility. After these foundational steps, possibly beginning with Flight 16, SpaceX could attempt another major milestone, orbital refueling. This is a complex and often criticized objective, but if it is successfully demonstrated, Starship would be able to travel farther than any rocket before it, reaching Mars and destinations beyond. At that point, the limitations of Starship become difficult to define. All of this underscores the importance of the orbital milestone that Starship is approaching. Being later than other rockets is not the issue. What truly matters is the significance of that achievement and the chain of capabilities that follow. We are now entering a phase in which many of Starship's most important milestones are likely to be realized. Among them, reaching orbit, which is a basic requirement for any space rocket, may be only two to three months away. It'll be a major challenge, but it is also the critical step that could allow Starship to move decisively ahead of its competitors. This explains why Starship has not yet reached orbit, and if success unlocks everything that follows, then the wait will have been worth it. Many extraordinary developments are coming. Now is the moment to pause and prepare because once the acceleration phase begins, it'll move very quickly. In any case, folks, this has been Kevin with Great SpaceX. Don't forget to like the video and subscribe if you haven't already to stay up to date with yours truly on the latest milestones in SpaceX's journey. Thank you so much for watching, and always remember, curiosity, imagination, and inspiration will follow you so long as you keep looking up.