#finance #financement The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute and should not be construed as financial or investment advice or an offer to purchase or sell securities. The content is not personalized or tailored to a specific person or group of persons, nor to their personal investment or financial needs. You should consult a financial adviser or other investment professional authorized to provide investment advice. Investing comes with risks, including the risk of loss. Presentations of trades made by Felix Prehn or Goat Academy Ltd or its personnel are not a guarantee that any investment decision made by a student will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:51 Information vs. Strategy: Avoiding the "Retail Slaughter" 02:19 The Numbers: $38 Trillion Debt and $3.3 Billion Daily Interest 03:25 Warren Buffett’s Warning: Government’s Natural Course is Devaluation 03:55 Historical Precedent: Nixon and the 1971 Gold Standard Exit 04:53 The Plaza Accord Lessons: How Devaluation Crushed Japan 05:32 The Playbook: Why Inflation is Irresistible for Politicians 06:52 The Money Trail: Following Institutional "Elephant Footsteps" 07:53 The Mechanism: How an 11% Dollar Decline Confiscates Wealth 08:52 Ray Dalio on Debt Devaluation: Winners vs. Losers 10:16 The New Safe Haven: Big Tech with Global Pricing Power 11:24 Why This Isn't the Dot-Com Bubble (Monetization vs. Speculation) 12:27 Pricing Power: Why Microsoft and Pepsi Thrive in Inflation 14:12 Dark Pool Data: Massive $200M Institutional Bets on Gold 15:10 Strategy: What to Own (Tech, Metals) vs. What to Avoid (Bonds) 17:14 The Shredder Effect: Share Buybacks as a Scarcity Mechanism 19:34 Quality Screener: 60% Margins and Interest Coverage Rules 21:21 The 3-Year Forecast: Elevated Inflation and Hard Assets 22:40 The Future: CBDCs and the Transition to Digital Gold 23:40 Action Plan: Auditing Your Portfolio and Generational Thinking 25:35,Outro
If you hold a 401k, a savings account, bonds or cash, shares, ETFs,
what I'm about to reveal to you could mean the difference between
preserving that wealth through the biggest monetary shift in 50 years
or watching the value of it get silently destroyed
while most investors completely miss what's happening.
President Trump was just asked about the dollar falling to a four-year low,
down 11% in just a year.
And his response?
Now, while most people scroll past this headline,
what they missed is literally the single biggest investment signal of the year.
This deliberate dollar devaluation is transferring trillions in wealth
from one asset class to another.
And if you're positioned wrong, you're going to be on the losing side of this.
My promise to you is that by the end of this video, you understand the process.
You understand what's most likely to happen.
You can position yourself better. This is not fear-mongering.
This isn't dooming and glooming as much fun as that could be.
This is actually to give you the knowledge and the skills
and to give you the training you need to understand what's going on here.
My name is Felix. I'm a former investment banker and economist.
That's Winston back there who's clearly the brains behind it all.
And we're also the founder of the Goat Academy.
We've taught well over 20,000 students.
We've also co-founded the TradeVision.io
where we make news and data that's institutional level available to you.
None of that mainstream fear-mongering nonsense out there.
And for this video, we've gone through Fed data,
institutional trading data, historical monetary policy precedents.
We've gone back to pre-Nixon.
And of course, you know, helper Winston's very large nose to sniff it all out.
And we're going to break down three critical things right here.
First, America's debt trapped and why it can't be solved.
Second, the secret wealth transfer happening right now
from cash holders to asset owners.
And third, exactly which asset class is positioned as the modern safe haven.
And it's actually not what most people think.
So by the end of this video, you'll understand exactly how to protect
and potentially grow your wealth while most investors are going to get slaughtered.
Sorry, that's true.
OK, let's just get us all up to the same base level of understanding of a couple of numbers.
America's national debt is $38 trillion plus, $100,000 plus
for every single American man, woman and possibly golden retriever.
So for the American average household, that is $266,000
because apparently you live in families of 2.3.
I don't know what the 0.3 is.
Maybe it's a very small person.
Maybe the golden retriever counts.
Maybe it's three cats.
You let me know in the comments.
But what makes it worse is that the U.S. debt to GDP ratio.
Now, to put that into like household terms,
imagine your annual salary is $100,000,
but you owe $126,000 on a credit card.
The U.S. government is a little bit bigger than that.
So they pay $3.3 billion every single day in interest.
That could fund infrastructure, education, health care.
Instead, it's vanishing into the pockets of, well, the wealthy.
Now, you might be thinking I'm exaggerating the severity
of this currency crisis, but no, take my word for it.
Listen to what the man himself, Warren Luther Buffett,
the world's greatest investor,
has to say about this exact issue.
So there you have the oracle himself.
The natural course of government
is to make the currency worth less over time.
It's not a conspiracy theory.
It's the reality of the world we live in.
And it's exactly why asset positioning matters
now more than ever.
So let me show you the historical patterns
because this isn't the first time
a major power has faced this situation.
In 1971, President Nixon faced a very similar crisis.
Bloody foreign countries were demanding
their gold for their dollar.
Imagine the cheek, right?
They should have just trusted the Americans, shouldn't they?
And the U.S. was running out of gold.
So on August 15th, 1971,
mark this day, it's important,
Nixon did something fairly radical.
He ended the gold standard.
He said it was temporary.
It's a, that's a funny word, isn't it?
It's like inflation is transitory.
People believe this stuff apparently.
55 years ago, so it's been temporarily undollared,
ungolden standard for 55 years.
So what happened next?
Well, the dollar lost 87% of its purchasing power.
87% just from 71 until today.
So if you held cash, your cash would now be worth,
you know, 12% of what it was.
Now, if you held assets, stocks, gold, real estate,
gold, you won.
And then we got, in 1985,
something that's called the Plaza Accord.
You might hear that phrase thrown around quite a bit.
The G5 nations, so the big five,
agreed to deliberately weaken the dollar
to fix the trade deficit.
Now it worked.
The dollar fell, but Japan got crushed.
Yes, sorry, Japanese friends.
That was American arranged, in my humble opinion.
Their currency appreciated so fast,
it created a massive bubble,
and then they got their last decades
of economic stagnation.
So when major powers face debt crises,
they devalue their own currency.
Basically, it's inflation by design.
It's the same playbook that we're running right now,
once again, under this president.
And the reason it's simple,
it's irresistible for politicians.
So yes, you can print money,
and they are printing money.
They're printing a lot of money,
and it's gonna cause inflation.
Not hyperinflation, but significant inflation.
You could cut spending.
Nobody wants to do that.
It's just unpopular.
And if you're a politician,
you're, by the nature of the beast,
a person who needs popularity.
Therefore, you will do the popular thing.
Cutting things rarely is.
See what Elon tried to do, right?
Didn't work out very well, did it?
And you could default on the debt.
Well, if you do that, it's all over.
So nobody wants to do that.
So what's the real solution?
There is only one path that actually makes sense.
It's a controlled devaluation of the dollar
through inflation.
You make the debt smaller
by making the dollar worth less.
So if you owe somebody $100,
and they're only $100 in the world,
that's a lot of money.
If you owe somebody $100,
and there are $1 million in the world,
it's a small amount of money.
That's the same sort of principle.
So what happens?
Well, asset prices go up,
but the debt stays the same number.
And that's what Trump meant by,
I think it's great.
Now, before I show you exactly
how this wealth transfer works,
and which stocks are positioned as safe havens here,
and which industries and which sectors,
I wanna give you something more in depth
for those of you who are ready
to actually learn.
And that is,
Wall Street essentially moves a lot of money around.
They move from one industry to another,
from gold to silver,
to tech stocks, to biotech, to AI, whatever.
And all, in my humble opinion,
you're actually gonna do is follow that money trail.
And they're big footsteps.
They're like elephant footsteps
because the amount of money is so large.
And once you know how to look for that
and where to look for that,
I think things can look very, very different.
And your system for investing in selectional stocks
becomes very, very different.
So if you wanna learn that skill,
which is what I learned from my Wall Street mentors,
then there's a short video I recorded for you.
It's like 17 minutes long, I think.
You can get that at phoenixfriends.org slash getfree.
So I put a link down below to that.
And that's for you guys who are a bit more serious
about managing your money.
Now, let me show you the wealth transfer mechanism
that's happening right now.
It's already started.
When the dollar declines by 11% in a year,
here's what actually happens.
Say you have $100,000 in savings,
you just lost $11,000.
Your salary buys $11,000 less if it's $100,000.
That's how severe that is.
You hold bonds while they pay interest
in dollars that are worth less.
It's a hidden tax on people who essentially own cash.
Now, the winners are those who say own stocks.
Because yes, your stocks are priced in dollars.
So when the dollars go down in value,
the stock prices in dollar terms rise.
Your real estate is worth more in dollar terms.
Your gold and silver surge to all-time highs
like we're seeing, and your assets go up
while your dollar debt stays the same.
So it's also good for people with a lot of debt.
And this is why Ray Dalio said,
if you depreciate the money,
it makes everything look like it's going up.
So the market isn't booming because the economy is great,
it's booming because the dollar is dying.
And Warren Buffett warned about this.
The natural cause of government
is to make the currency worth less over time.
So right now, if you're in cash,
all those low-yielding safe bonds,
you're being impoverished, and it's the plan.
If you're in the right assets, you're being enriched.
That is also the plan.
It is done by design.
Maybe you think it's incredibly unfair or whatever.
Politics don't really matter.
What matters is how much money you've got at the end of it
or how much money the money is worth.
Does that make any sense?
All right, so here's where it gets interesting.
When people say safe haven assets,
most people think gold, government bonds, cash.
And these are the traditional playbook.
But we're in a new era,
and there is a new asset class that combines,
in my opinion, safety with growth.
Now, of course, all investments carry risk,
and past performance doesn't guarantee a future performance,
I'm not a financial advisor,
I'm not registered for anything except with Winston.
But large-cap US tech stocks
with global revenue are extraordinary.
And by the way, I'm also a big fan of metals right now,
especially gold.
Silver is gonna be very volatile,
but yeah, a lot of money to be made there, potentially.
But I do think there is something everybody's overlooking,
and it is the big tech stock.
When the dollar weakens, companies like Microsoft,
Apple, Nvidia, Google,
well, they sell their products globally in foreign money.
So if they sell their product in a foreign currency,
and when they convert those euros, yens, pounds,
all the monkey currencies back into the mighty dollar,
right, they get more dollars for it.
So a weak dollar means bigger international sales.
So think about it this way.
Microsoft's cloud business, called Azure,
just hit 50 billion in quarterly revenue.
Much of that is from overseas,
about 40-odd percent or so, almost half.
Nvidia's chips are sold globally.
So when the dollar falls 11%,
their foreign revenue is worth 11% more.
So they get growth without doing anything at all.
And secondly, this is not the dot-com bubble.
That's when I started investing.
That was speculation on future profits
that nobody had thought about yet.
Those dot-com companies usually had no revenue
and certainly no profits.
Today's tech giants are generating
massive free cash flow right now.
Microsoft Azure is driving AI revenue explosions
on a daily basis.
Nvidia is driving massive improvements in profits.
So the tech sector has just given us a record number
of positive earnings guidance for the year.
So we're getting into the monetization phase of AI.
Yes, we've spent all the money on infrastructure
and chips and technology,
but companies are now making huge margins on AI services.
And that's what I said about a year ago.
I said, software is the next step of AI.
And the beautiful thing is that these companies
are not tied to any single government's policy.
They operate globally, they generate cash globally,
they hold assets globally.
So when the US government devalues the dollar,
Microsoft doesn't lose value, it actually gains value.
So it's like owning a business that operates in 50 currencies.
Your dollar exposure is limited.
And even if inflation really, really takes hold
of the US and the world,
well, Microsoft is just going to put up their prices
for their subscriptions.
You probably wouldn't even notice.
Companies are not going to cancel
their Windows license fees, right?
Because the company would stop.
They're not going to cut off their cloud computing
because everything would stop.
So they're just going to pay more.
So these companies have pricing power.
The kind of pricing power that was reserved once for,
you know, say a Coca-Cola makes a nearly addictive beverage.
Pepsi, for example, during COVID,
they raised their prices like 17% in a year.
Did they sell less?
No, didn't.
Why?
Because people are addicted to stuff.
I need my sugar.
You know, whatever it is.
So when you have these very strong companies
with products that once you sign up for them,
all you just need,
the pain of switching is just too great.
You're going to pay whatever it is.
And the data proves it.
While the dollar was down last year,
the NASDAQ, oh, this is silver.
Ha, ha, ha, ha.
Silver went up quite a bit too.
By the way, we should not fail to mention that,
but let me just measure here in trade vision
how much has gone up by 20 plus percent, right?
So it has done better than the loss of value of the dollar.
Dollar goes down 11%, NASDAQ goes up 20%, right?
So we're still making more money
than the dollar devaluation.
The silver thing is actually an interesting story,
but let me show you gold for a second as well,
which had a tremendous run.
Let me show you something even more interesting
because I was looking at this yesterday.
I was doing a podcast and what I was seeing
is I was looking at the gold and silver dark pool trades,
and you can look at this in trade vision.
I'll put the link down below into a trial software we make.
And I can see trades that are hundreds of millions of dollars
and they place them every single day, not just one day.
The day before was the same story.
And these trades have pretty low probabilities
of actually making money.
Go back another day.
Here you have some more, 200 million, 100 million.
And look, they have like a 28%, 28%, 20% chance
of making money.
So these are massive institutional bullish trades on gold.
Now on silver, the largest trade I can find
is about $10 million,
which is not a lot by Wall Street standards.
So it does show you where the money is flowing.
I just thought I'd share that with you
as you can obviously come to your own conclusion
and rummage around the data on your own.
So what's our strategy here?
Let's get specific.
What should you own?
What should you avoid
in this dollar death spiral decline?
By the way, people are still gonna use the dollar.
It's just gonna be worthless.
Well, large cap U.S. tech stocks.
Think Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Google.
International revenue.
They benefit from a weak dollar.
AI monetization is driving earnings.
They have high free cash flow
and it gives you international exposure
without having to rummage around
the exotic stock exchanges of, you know,
Delhi or Calcutta or Indonesia or somewhere,
not judging those markets.
I just don't know anything about the Naughty Euro,
I imagine.
And that's how I would get my international exposure.
So no, I would not go to the apparatchniks in Europe,
you know, the socialist republics of France and Germany
or any of those,
and particularly hunt for those stocks
unless you're into warmongering stocks,
which has been a very good trade.
War is always very profitable and insanely immoral,
but with very few exceptions,
most good companies are listed in the U.S.
There's a very simple reason for that.
If you're a brilliant business,
you want to sell your business as the owner
to the people who have the most money
and who are gonna pay you the most.
Where is that gonna happen?
Well, it's gonna happen
in the biggest stock exchange in the world,
where they're the biggest hedge funds,
the biggest pension funds,
the biggest privately owned banks in the world.
So where is that?
Well, that is a place called New York.
So everybody who's half decent lists there.
There are a few exceptions, but they're not that many.
So that's why I get my international exposure.
Just don't bother with it.
Just buy the big tech stocks.
And the third part to it,
and the second and the first,
I appreciate are basically the same.
Keep life simple, I always say, is precious metals.
And, you know, people talk about allocation.
Some people say 5%.
Some people say 25%.
Some people say 125%.
Don't leverage.
Far too risky.
But real assets are something that you can't print.
So precious metals, you can't print gold as a central bank.
You also can't print Microsoft shares.
In fact, the exact opposite is happening.
The number of shares of a company like Microsoft,
here's a chart, but it declines.
So they used to have 8.5 billion shares outstanding in 2012,
and now it's 7.5 billion,
and it's less every single quarter.
How does that happen?
They basically take shares
and they put them in the shredder.
So companies buy their own stock.
Why do they do that?
It helps to pump the stock price
because their management is paid in share options.
And those share options are worth a heck of a lot more
if the stock price gets pumped.
So this is what these companies do.
They keep doing exactly that.
And you'll see the same story
with every major tech stock out there,
like Amazon here, for example, does the opposite.
Okay, I'm surprised by that
because they do do major share buybacks,
but I guess they must be handing out
a heck of a lot of share options.
Let's look at some of the other ones then.
Let's look at NVIDIA, for example.
Again, they had 25, 26 billion shares.
Now it's 24 billion shares.
So there's a constant erosion of shares over time,
and that makes it a scarce asset,
a little bit like what the Bitcoin lots tell you.
So dig at the Bitcoin lot,
go nuts in the comments down below.
So what do we want to avoid?
Well, anything with fixed returns in dollars.
So you ever buy a long-term bond
that pays you 4.5% for the next 30 years?
Run, right?
If you were one of the Muppets
who bought the Austrian 100-year bond
that paid you, I think, 0.5% or 1%,
you deserve your head examined.
And if you're sitting on cash
because you think the market's too high
and you don't know whether it's right to buy yet,
I'm gonna wait for the next crash.
Well, you're losing 11% per year guaranteed.
So think about that.
And really speculative stocks with no fundamentals,
I actually think they're going to have
a good run in this year
because we're gonna see so much money printing.
We're gonna see interest rates
come down very significantly.
So I think speculation is gonna be great,
but in the long run, it doesn't help you.
So it's one of those things
where you need a firm exit rule.
And again, check out the mini masterclass
I recorded for you
so you're a little bit better informed on that one.
So what can a portfolio look like?
Quality stocks,
that's where I put the majority of my money.
International, I allowed that into that.
So for me, that's most of it, quality stocks.
I also take the half of my money,
maybe a little bit less.
I trade that more actively.
What do I look for in quality stocks?
In our community,
and then the paid part of it,
this is the $27 a month paid parts.
This is intentionally very, very affordable.
You get research reports
and also access to this little tool here.
And these are the things I look at.
So I look for margins that are ideally 60% or above.
I look for return on invested capital
that's at least what I want as a return.
So at the very least,
it has to be in line with the dollar valuation.
Pre-cash flow margins, think about that.
You want a positive interest coverage ratio.
PE ratios, I'm not that bothered about,
but you can obviously play around with that.
But yeah, say you want to ramp this up
to a little bit more impressive numbers,
it then gives you a pretty short list.
This is out of 5,000 stocks.
Now you've only got 78 left, but actually have solid data.
We also have a little preset for that.
You click on high quality
and it'll give you here some stocks.
Again, I'm not telling you to buy them.
This isn't financial advice,
but it's a good place to kind of start.
And then you can look at any of these and you go,
oh, okay, I didn't realize that Intuit fits that bracket.
Let me click on that.
You hit analyze and it gives you a nice little breakdown
of what that company does.
And that's just one of the little tools
that we give you access to just make better decisions.
So you could also put your portfolio into that
and a lot of other things.
So that's kind of the way I look at that.
And again, precious metals, commodities,
the percentage really depends on
how you feel about the world.
I think the more fearful and worried,
they'll put more into it.
I think the wealthy would put more into it
because they don't need it to be so liquid,
whereas stocks obviously are very nice and liquid.
And then if we look a little bit at timeline here,
look, the dollar is gonna bounce around a little bit
because Trump's a volatile chap.
You're gonna get market pullbacks, five, 10%,
stock market, 10, 20, 30% are completely normal.
They're part of the system.
They're a feature, not a bug.
But as long as tech earnings remain strong,
as long as we're seeing them make more and more money
out of AI, you're gonna see more job losses.
Amazon has announced some more.
Things are looking good,
except for the people who lost their jobs.
Medium term, one to three years,
the dollar decline continues
and people are gonna start to notice it
around year three because they're like,
wow, everything feels a lot more expensive.
Inflation will remain elevated.
Officially, it'll be two, three, four, 5%
and that'll be good for you apparently.
Unofficially, it'll be 10, 20, 30%.
Yeah, massive inflation that isn't measured.
So this is why I wanna be in hard assets
and I do include the high quality stocks and hard assets.
And then in the longer term,
yeah, we might end up with a new monetary system.
Cash is gonna disappear.
It'll be some sort of stable coin,
government backed type thing,
which will be weird and they can tax you
whenever they feel like it in control,
you know, that kind of stuff,
which is another reason people like to earn metals.
That's coming and whether that's gonna be JP Morgan's
or the US government's, you know, we'll wait and see.
But those who are in assets will not just survive,
they will actually create generational wealth.
The people who invested in 71 into hard assets
are living on, you know, triplex apartments
in Fifth Avenue today and they were looking for,
you know, Park and Park Lane and that kind of thing.
And having a brilliant life and are wondering,
you know, the biggest problem is shall we go to the house
in Nantucket or to the one in, you know,
Bahamas or something?
And which jet should we take?
Because mommy flew out on the one that I wanted.
And that's kind of, I think, where we are.
I honestly think this is a beautiful, amazing opportunity
for those who are informed.
And it is the most horrid and unfair thing
for those who are not.
And also for those who don't have the ability
to put significant amount of money into assets.
So if it was me, I would focus on getting as much
of my cash and income into hard assets as humanly possible.
I'd spend the next couple of weeks and months studying
and learning and getting confident and getting systems
and getting yourself a mentor and that kind of thing.
And build out a strategy that doesn't just get me
to pay my bills by next month or by the end of the year
or reduce my debt or something,
but how do I actually think in decades, in generations
about how to generate this wealth?
And how do I share that with the people who come after me?
So in the long term, I think the trend is very clear.
Assets will go up.
Dollar and currencies will continue to go down.
Think about it, 87% loss of the dollar
just since the 1970s.
This time they're gonna do it faster.
So please, please, please stay invested.
Make an action plan.
Order what you own.
Reallocate.
I'm not giving you advice.
I'm just giving you some thought processes here
and then track what's going on out there.
Keep an eye on the politics.
It could change, but it's very unlikely
because how do you get out of a problem
with 38, 40 billion trillion dollars of debt?
You make it worth less by printing more money.
It's not complicated.
It requires discipline, which is why I admire Buffett
so much because he's happy to be unpopular
and seen to be an idiot for years at a time
and just smiles confidently to himself.
And that's a skill I think we should all aim for.
So you gotta decide who you wanna be,
which side of this you're gonna wanna be on.
The ones who are gonna be emotional
will get the ones who understand this now,
at least starting to understand this now
and will dig deeper, will win.
That's my humble opinion.
You got some value out of this,
please share it with somebody
who might also get some value out of it
so that their golden retrievers can be as exhausted
from hiking as that chap back there.
And I wish you a beautiful future.
Your 401k just lost 28% of its value.
Your portfolio probably did too.
Not because the stock market crashed.
It didn't.
The S&P was actually up 18% last year.