Xi Zhang on war US analysis

Beijing is entering an extraordinary period. A close combat status has reportedly been activated, security around the Central Military Commission has been tightened, and files and computers are being moved amid an atmosphere as taut as a drawn bowstring. At the same time, social media is abuzz with reports of loud explosions, suspected gunfire in Weifang, fighter jets flying in rapid succession, helicopters filling the skies, and military transports carrying armored vehicles moving in long convoys. What is really unfolding behind the Jiang Yuxia incident? Meanwhile, rumors have surfaced claiming that Xi has dealt ruthlessly with more than 20,000 troops, leaving scenes of extreme devastation. How much of this is true? From anonymous disclosures and analyses suggesting a near-civil-war scenario, to suspicions that Xi is employing delaying tactics followed by a bloody purge, the picture is slowly coming into focus. In this video, we piece together the most critical fragments to glimpse the direction of the coming storm. Army on Near Combat Alert reports of gunfire. According to a mainland military insider using the nickname Liu Jian, who spoke to the Epoch Times on January 30th, soldiers were stunned after official information related to Jiang Yuxia was released on the afternoon of January 24th. Only then did they understand why the authorities had earlier activated a near-combat status. It was meant to prevent internal upheaval. Specifically, to stop officers from speaking out in Jiang's defense after his detention, and to preempt unrest within his military network. Liu said that after January 24th, security at the Central Military Commission building was visibly tightened. Large numbers of Central Guard Bureau personnel were deployed inside. Computers and documents were removed, and boxed files were taken away. The atmosphere was extremely tense. Another military analyst, using the name Liu Jianqiang, told the Epoch Times that within the CCP system, near-combat status is not aimed at foreign warfare, but represents an extreme level of political security alert. He explained that when top CCP leaders travel abroad, the military often enters this mode to prevent domestic turmoil. With the priority being stable command channels and absolute obedience, not external conflict. Why, then, is the CCP leadership so nervous? Clearly, something major is being concealed. Xi Jinping himself knows that what he has done is legally questionable, and he is bracing for a counter-strike. In reality, both sides appear to be preparing for war. Recent developments are striking. On X, netizens have been sharing reports of unusual military activity across the country. The most shocking came from Weifang, Shandong, under the Northern Theater Command, where residents reported sounds resembling gunfire. Locals asked online why loud explosions were heard repeatedly that morning. Many commenters said it was gunfire, likely coming from a Northern Theater Command base in Weifang. The Northern Theater Command traces its roots to the former Shen Yun military region and is largely associated with Zhang Yuxi's faction. As noted previously, none of the five theater commands openly supported Zhang's arrest. The Northern Theater Command, in particular, remained completely silent, not even reposting the Ministry of National Defense announcement, suggesting continued resistance to Beijing's demands. Elsewhere, on January 30, a video showed more than 20 fighter jets flying overhead in succession. On highways in Shandong, helicopters flew in dense formations, reportedly Army aviation units relocating under combat readiness protocols. At a railway station in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, netizens filmed long trains transporting heavy armored vehicles. Where were they headed, and whom were they preparing to fight? In Maoming, Guangdong, within the Southern Theater Command, residents recorded J-16 and J-20 fighter jets roaring at low altitude, an especially sensitive political move, given the implications of Air Force deployments. Online rumors also claim that 11 army groups nationwide are mobilizing large forces toward Beijing, with some units already arriving in the capital and nearby areas. Most critical, however, is the ring around Beijing itself, the 82nd Army Group in Baoding, Hebei, and the 83rd Army Group in Xinjiang, Henan, the core forces defending the capital. Reports say that officers within these units who support Zhang Yuxia and Liu Zhenli are no longer staying passive. According to Jian Feng, Japanese media have even suggested that major army groups are forming a resistance alliance, possibly establishing a joint command to confront Xi Jinping's final defensive line around Beijing, the Central Guard Bureau and Special Security Bureau. This unmistakably resembles a full-scale near-civil war scenario involving all branches of the military. Has Xi ordered the slaughter of over 20,000 troops? Beyond the information just discussed about movements linked to Zhang Yuxia's camp, there is another circulating version of events focusing on Xi Jinping's side. On the evening of January 28, Canadian writer Sheng Shui released an emergency report claiming that Xi Jinping was carrying out an extremely brutal large-scale purge and that all soldiers serving Zhang Yuxia and Liu Zhenli had been killed. Sheng Shui said she had spoken with a former Chinese military officer, organized the conversation into written form, and posted it on her ex-account. However, I have no independent way to verify the information she released, so I am sharing it here only as a reference. According to the former officer, Zhang Yuxia is effectively finished. Xi Jinping's side has moved decisively and with extreme violence. All soldiers serving Zhang Yuxia and Liu Zhenli were allegedly killed, with no survivors. The former officer repeatedly emphasized that everyone was killed, including aides and caregivers, an estimated total of more than 50 people, insisting this was fact. The same source claimed that the Southern Theater Command had arrested more than 200 people. The Eastern Theater Command was also making arrests. And in the Beijing area alone, at least 20,000 people had been detained. The General Staff Department reportedly arrested more than 70 people. During arrests, anyone who resisted was dealt with on the spot. In the Eastern Theater Command, two individuals who resisted were allegedly shot in the head with pistols during a mid- to senior-level cadre meeting, in front of everyone. The former officer said the situation resembled North Korea. People were arrested directly during meetings, taken away as their names were called. During political study sessions, special forces wearing helmets and carrying guns would storm in. Anyone who resisted was immediately shot in the head and executed on the spot, openly and without concealment. He also gave a specific example. In the Southern Theater Command, a deputy corps-level officer was so terrified when arrested that he wet himself, soaking both his pants and shoes. The former officer further claimed that the Central Guard Bureau previously had just over 1,000 personnel, but has now expanded many times over, to about 12,500. However, this raises a question. An increase to 12,500 would be nearly tenfold, not fourfold, suggesting Sheng Shui may have misheard or misrecorded the figure. The report also claimed that Xi Jinping, in the name of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, unilaterally set up a parallel security apparatus reminiscent of the Ming Dynasty's eastern and western depots, with a scale of 200,000 to 350,000 personnel, directly overseen by Cai Qi. Commentator Tang Jingyuan urged caution regarding this report. He noted that parts of it are plausible. Xi's move against Zhang was indeed ruthless and unconstrained by norms or red lines, and the intent to purge all of Zhang's allies within the military is logically consistent. However, there are also inconsistencies. If Xi had truly begun mass executions and fully controlled the guns, why has no theater command publicly and clearly declared support for Xi? And how should the reported military movements attributed to Zhang Youxia's camp be explained? In addition, political scholar Liu Juning wrote on January 29 that he had received reliable information indicating that the immediate family of the Grand Marshal Zhang Youxia had, at official request, left Beijing and relocated to areas south of the Beijing-Tianjin region, similar to how Liu Shaoqi was once sent to Henan and Deng Xiaoping's family to Jiangxi. At the very least, this suggests Zhang's family may still be alive, contradicting the claim of total extermination. There is also another interpretation. On January 28, commentator Li Muyong received an unverified and untraceable tip claiming that Xi Jinping is employing delaying tactics and deceptive troop movements. After Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were detained, their photos and biographies remained on official CCP websites. Meanwhile, there were internal disputes among top party leaders over the legality of the arrests, differing opinions within the discipline inspection system, third-party intervention, and even the possibility that Zhang and Liu could be released. All of this leaked information, the source claimed, was part of a diversionary strategy. The goal of Xi Jinping's authorities would be to keep the theater commands in a state of waiting, hesitation, and observation, afraid to act, while buying time for a final move. During this limited window, Xi's camp would dispatch agents and task forces, convene meetings, carry out arrests, and use other measures to rapidly seize control of the military. So which scenario seems more likely to you? Has Xi Jinping truly wiped out his rivals and then followed up with a delaying ruse? U.S. Experts Reveals Inside Details About Zhang Youxia Sullivan, the White House National Security Advisor under the Biden administration, visited Beijing in August 2024. On August 29, 2024, he met with Zhang Youxia. In a blog program titled Long Game, Sullivan later recalled his encounter with Zhang that year. Sullivan said the meeting took place at the August 1 building headquarters. Seated around and behind Zhang Youxia were more than 20 PLA generals, arranged in several rows. Sullivan emphasized one key impression. Zhang came across as firm and blunt in manner, forceful in speech, and extremely confident. What stood out most was how differently Zhang spoke compared with others. He did not sound like he was reading from prepared talking points or reciting official scripts. Instead, he spoke naturally, word by word, engaging Sullivan directly in conversation. Sullivan went on to say that his overall impression was that Zhang spoke with ease and did not see himself as subordinate to anyone. He almost gave the sense that he was a central figure, the head of the organization. Zhang projected the confidence of a leader rather than someone playing a secondary role. Another striking impression was that what Sullivan heard from Zhang was completely different from what he typically heard from Chinese diplomats or from Xi Jinping's camp. Others tended to use polished, formulaic language, phrases like win-win cooperation, peaceful coexistence, and mutual respect. Even amid intense competition, CCP officials often spoke this way. Zhang did not. He was extremely direct. Right at the outset, he told Sullivan, we do not want war, referring to the Chinese side, but we are prepared for war. If you want to fight us, we will fight you. Sullivan also recalled a detail during the meeting that left a deep impression on him. In the August 1st building, all the attendants serving tea and water were women who appeared to be seven feet tall, about 2.1 meters. Sullivan found this bizarre. He joked that it seemed as if they must have been walking on stilts because he had never seen so many women of that height serving at once. He said the scene was almost unbelievable. According to commentator Li Dayu, these women were very likely security personnel disguised as service staff. This detail alone shows just how powerful and imposing Zhang Youxia's authority was at the time. Dennis Wilder, a former CIA analyst specializing in China, wrote in a Financial Times article on January 30th titled, The Meaning of Xi's Military Purge, that the purge of Zhang Youxia has raised serious doubts about Xi Jinping's leadership ability. Wilder noted that many foreign analysts believe Xi wields absolute, unrivaled power. However, the recent chain of events suggests this assessment is deeply flawed. First, it overlooks Xi's deeply ingrained suspicion and paranoia. From the 1989 Tiananmen movement to Hong Kong's pro-democracy protests and unrest among Uyghurs, Xi has repeatedly claimed that the CIA was the hidden instigator. This time, when party leaders questioned his decision to remove Zhang Youxia, it naturally became yet another trigger for Xi's paranoia. Second, and more importantly, this assessment ignores the inevitable tension between the two most critical institutions in the CCP system, the party and the military. In fact, since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, every civilian leader has maintained a delicate and uneasy relationship with military generals. Mao Zedong included. In 1958, for example, Peng Dehuai, commander-in-chief during the Korean War, questioned the rationale of Mao's great leap forward. He cited letters from soldiers reporting that their families were starving. Those doubts enraged Mao, and Peng was ultimately purged. Wilder wrote in The Diplomat in 2025 that a series of high-level purges within the Chinese military point to a life-and-death power struggle between old and new forces, one that even resembles an intense internal war between the princeling faction and Xi's own inner circle. Wilder concluded. Whatever the full truth may be, Zhang Youxia's downfall is enough to make party elites question Xi Jinping's judgment and leadership. One thing is certain, Zhang Youxia's real crime was never corruption or incompetence, but the fact that his power had grown to a level Xi Jinping could no longer tolerate. Three scenarios for Xi Jinping. According to Ren Minbao, once Zhang Youxia was branded a traitor for colluding with the enemy and betraying the state, Xi Jinping lost his last remaining source of bloodline support within both the military and the party. The PLA's chain of command is now showing signs of paralysis, and China is entering an extremely dangerous moment. Analysts outlined three possible endgame scenarios for this crisis. Scenario 1. Escalated terror-style purges. Xi forces the theater commands to publicly declare loyalty and intensifies arrests of remaining factional elements. On the surface, unity may be preserved, but the military would be stripped of real combat capability, reduced to a machine run entirely on fear. Scenario 2. Forced compromise. If the military continues to remain silent, Xi may be compelled to reach a secret deal with powerful factions within the armed forces, effectively raising the stick but striking lightly against Zhang Youxia. This would mark the end of Xi's claim to absolute authority. Scenario 3. Breakdown of command, leading to civil war. This is the most frightening outcome. If the central leadership fails to bring the military back under control, the result could be an internal armed conflict. China's current situation in Beijing has been compared by mainland netizens to the Tianjin incident during the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom or a modern replay of the Lin Biao incident. History shows that when a ruling elite turns on itself in violent infighting, it often signals the collapse of a regime. Even if Xi has temporarily controlled the people, he has already lost political and legal legitimacy. Under military regulations, major troop movements require the joint signatures of both the chairman of the Central Military Commission and its vice chairman. Zhang Youxia, the first-ranking vice chairman, has effectively disappeared, rendering current military orders procedurally illegitimate. Overseas Chinese democracy activist Tang Baiqiao recently launched a poll on X asking, What do you think will ultimately happen to Xi Jinping? 1. A peaceful end 2. Exile 3. Imprisonment 4. Execution So far, more than half of respondents have chosen option 4. And you, what's your choice? 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