GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS HORMUZ FLOWS TO RESTART IN 5 DAYS, BESSENT: 15% GLOBAL TARIFF EFFECTIVE THIS WEEK

The global economic and geopolitical landscape is entering a period of extreme volatility as the Trump administration simultaneously ramps up military campaigns in the Middle East and executes aggressive protectionist trade policies. The U.S. Senate's rejection of a resolution to limit war powers has provided a solid legal corridor for Operation Epic Fury. Meanwhile, leading financial institutions like Goldman Sachs have been forced to upwardly revise crude oil price forecasts due to the risk of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. In parallel, the implementation of a 15 percent universal tariff and maritime insurance measures by the Treasury Department is establishing a new operational framework for financial markets, where geopolitical risk and trade costs have become the core governing variables. Operation Epic Fury survives. Senate challenge as Republicans unite behind Trump. A primary focal point in today's geopolitical arena is President Donald Trump's significant political victory in the U.S. Senate, which secures the path for the continuation of Operation Epic Fury targeting Iran. In a Wednesday vote, the Senate officially rejected a resolution introduced by Democratic Senator Tim Kaine designed to restrict the president's use of military force against Tehran. This outcome reflects the tight-knit unity of the Republican Party behind White House decisions, despite lingering skepticism regarding the scale of U.S. intervention in the Middle East. This victory followed days of intensive lobbying by the Trump administration. High-ranking officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Raisin-Kaine, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth briefed Congress to defend the necessity of the military operations. The effectiveness of these efforts was evident in the final tally. Senator Rand Paul was the sole Republican to support the restriction resolution, while Senator John Fetterman was the only Democrat to side with the administration in support of the airstrikes. On the ground, the scale of Operation Epic Fury is massive and devastating. To date, U.S. forces have struck over 2,000 targets within Iranian territory, focusing primarily on neutralizing air defense systems and missile capabilities. However, the cost of the campaign is mounting. Six U.S. service members have been killed in action. On the Iranian side, nearly 50 high-ranking government leaders have been eliminated, while Tehran claims at least 1,045 fatalities nationwide since the operation commenced. The legal mechanism and logic behind Republican support rest on the view that the president is exercising his constitutional authority as commander-in-chief. Senator Lindsey Graham criticized the War Powers Act as an unconstitutional shift of power from the executive to the legislative branch. Echoing this, Senator Mark Wayne Mullen asserted that the United States does not need 535 commanders-in-chief managing immediate military decisions. The administration also emphasized the necessity of preemptive strikes, with Secretary Rubio revealing that Operation Epic Fury was launched after intelligence indicated Israel intended to strike Iran first. He argued that without early action, American and allied casualties could have been significantly higher. Historically, Senator Tim Kainey's effort was viewed by Republican colleagues as an abuse of legislative tools. Senator John Barrasso pointed out that this was the fifth War Powers resolution Kainey had introduced to restrain Trump since his return to office last year. Notably, such resolutions have only been used 11 times in the past 50 years, meaning Kainey alone accounts for nearly half of those instances in history. Statistics also show a clear political trend, as Kainey introduced no such resolutions during the terms of Barack Obama or Joe Biden. This vote not only validates the military campaign but also signals a profound shift in the power structure between the executive and legislative branches in Washington. Goldman Sachs predicts Hormuz flows to restart in five days, full normalization within four weeks, source zero hedge. Turning to the direct financial impacts of Middle East tensions on global energy markets, Goldman Sachs has made a surprise move by significantly raising its oil price forecasts, even as other banks maintain a bearish outlook due to structural oversupply. Specifically, in the latest report from chief oil strategist Don Struven, Goldman Sachs raised its average Brent price forecast for Q2 by $10 to $76 per barrel, up from $66. For WTI, the forecast rose by $9 to $71 per barrel, up from $62. The first driver behind this adjustment is the expectation of severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs assumes that for the next five days, export flows through the Strait will remain at a mere 15% of normal levels. Subsequently, a gradual recovery process will take place over 28 days, four weeks. According to their calculations, this scenario will lead to a sharp decline in OECD inventories in March and an estimated production loss of 200 million barrels in the Middle East as storage facilities hit their limits. The second factor supporting higher prices is the persistent geopolitical risk premium. Goldman Sachs estimates that this premium currently adds about $13 to the price of Brent. Although the bank predicts Brent will drop from its current level of $82 to $66 by Q4 2026, this is still higher than the previous $60 forecast. For 2027, the forecast was also raised to $70 for Brent and $66 for WTI. To understand the market logic, one must look at storage and production capacity. Goldman Sachs estimates total onshore crude storage capacity in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran at approximately 600 million barrels. Before the disruption began, these nations had only about 300 million barrels of spare capacity. In a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, with 13.5 million barrels per day unable to be diverted through bypass pipelines, this storage capacity would be filled in just 23 days. However, Goldman warns that production losses would begin much sooner than the 23-day mark, as countries with the smallest storage buffers, like Iraq, would reach saturation first and be forced to cut production immediately. Furthermore, oil price outlooks face extreme upside risks. If flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain at current lows for five weeks instead of five days, Brent could potentially hit $100 per barrel. This price level would trigger widespread demand destruction to prevent inventories from falling to dangerously low levels. Conversely, if normalization occurs faster than expected, due to President Trump's escort plan or diplomatic efforts by the Chinese delegation currently in the Gulf, CTA trend-following algorithms could trigger a historic sell-off, potentially sending Brent prices plunging $12 to $15 from current levels. Secretary Besant teases oil stabilization announcements. Trump's 15% tariff kicks in this week. Source, Zero Hedge. The final segment of today's report focuses on the landmark domestic and foreign economic policies of the U.S. Treasury. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has confirmed that President Donald Trump's 15% universal global tariff will officially take effect this week. This marks an escalation from the 10% level previously applied after the Supreme Court struck down the President's initial economic policy. This 15% tariff, invoked under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, is expected to remain in place for 150 days. Secretary Besant expressed strong confidence that these tariffs would withstand legal challenges, citing the more than 4,000 lawsuits that previous tariff policies successfully navigated. However, the administration faces countervailing financial pressure as a federal appeals court recently rejected efforts to delay legal proceedings regarding tax refunds. It is estimated that the federal government may owe up to $175 billion in refunds. Nonetheless, Treasury data as of March 2nd shows that tariffs have already generated over $150 billion in revenue for the current fiscal year. In tandem with the tariff policy, the Trump administration is working to cool energy markets pressured by the conflict with Iran. The President announced via Truth Social that the White House will provide military naval escorts and political risk insurance for commercial oil and gas tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic choke point handles roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products daily but has recently been paralyzed as insurers cancelled contracts or hiked premiums to unaffordable levels. Specific enforcement mechanisms have already begun. Secretary Besant stated that the International Development Finance Corporation, DFC, will directly provide insurance for both crude tankers and cargo ships operating in the Gulf region. The financial market's reaction to these developments has been relatively positive. WTI crude fell approximately 0.5% to $74 in New York while Brent stabilized above $81 in London. Analysts at LPL Financial noted that securing maritime safety in the Strait of Hormuz has significantly alleviated fears of a global supply shock, helping to cool inflation expectations and pull interest rates lower. The U.S. stock market also recorded a significant rebound following intense volatility. The Dow Jones, which had plummeted 1,200 points on March 2, recovered most of its losses. Similarly, the Nasdaq rebounded after a 400-point drop and the S&P 500 clawed back from a 1% decline. These figures suggest that the market is beginning to absorb geopolitical shocks and is placing trust in the administration's risk management capabilities through financial insurance tools and military might. However, the combination of high tariffs and energy costs remains a complex puzzle for medium-term economic growth prospects. You've been watching Unseen Ledger, where we turn data into insight and insight into advantage. 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