The 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix Preview & PREDICTIONS

Well, well, well. This news seems quite apt, doesn't it? It's quite the right time and place to talk about it, if you ask me. I mean, we're entering a Chinese weekend, and hey, a Chinese company's interested in Formula 1. News came up from Bloomberg that the Titanic automaker BYD, them in the UK are best known for making big London buses, is exploring the idea of going motor racing, and F1 is one of their ports of call they're considering. Interesting. But it's not like China's not looked into joining F1 recently. We've known this for a while now. I mean, the FIA president's been all about this for quite some time. And when you couple that with many other ruminations about an Asian country joining F1 sometime soon, I remember one of those rumours happening when I first started this channel. It is quite inevitable that somewhere in that region is going to manifest a team. We all thought it was going to be Hyundai with Genesis. The word that they are using right now is exploring the idea, just so you know. There is an element of doubt within that. But I bet that was one of those headlines that is going to instantly bring up comments saying, they can't join Formula 1. They don't know how to build internal combustion engines. F1 is dead. Well, just so you know, up until very recently, they did make internal combustion engines. And even after that, they still have plenty of know-how when it comes to hybrid powertrains, albeit in the commercial civilian sector. There are probably other more colourful headlines out there. And they're also looking into endurance racing. So it doesn't necessarily have to be just Formula 1. It could be WEC or something else entirely. All part of a much grander global push. And I will admit, I've seen quite a few BYD cars knocking around my area. So, you know, I've been actually intrigued by them. So if they're just looking at options as to what to do with this global push, then Formula 1 is perfectly reasonable to consider at least. And honestly, given the current engine regulations, there is a viable pathway in. You don't need to arrive as a fully formed engine manufacturer on day one. Cadillac's proving that for us right now. Their engines aren't going to be ready until 2029. If they bother with it at all. If they're not swayed by Ferrari's political flirtations, as I mused before. There could be an even slower, smarter route. One that would make use of their focus. Maybe a technical partnership or a sponsorship deal. You know, the kind of thing that Toyota and Haas have been doing the last 18 months. It started off as just a simple technical partnership. Look where it is right now. Toyota Gazoo Racing is the title sponsor of Haas. And it can only grow from there if Toyota's really interested. So why doesn't BYD do the same thing? Which team exactly, Lore? Well, I was thinking a couple. I mean, Williams did come to mind. But then I dismissed it at this time. Everything's so in flux with that team at the moment. I really don't want to cast any sudden knee-jerk reactions with that team. But there is one that is definitely ripe for the picking at the moment. Since it seems to be the perennial butt monkey of Formula 1. No one really knows where this team's going to go. And that is, of course, Alpine. Because they look the most vulnerable. And they could really do with this kind of insight injection. You may be saying that Aston Martin looks worse. But they do have a structure. They just need to pull their socks up about it. Even though Alpine switched to Mercedes power units, a company like BYD could provide value on the electrification side. You know, battery systems, knowledge, energy management, software, hybrid era branding. Also, it and Mercedes do have a shared history together via the Chinese EV brand Denza. A former joint venture between those two companies. Whilst the latter has since exited it, it does illustrate previous in the car sector and a logical pathway should this company be looking at learning about what the F1 paddock's all about. And build some credibility. Because Renault's credibility right now is, quite frankly, in the toilet. As in, it's like, just leave, Renault. You really don't want to be here anymore, do you? It's hanging in there by a thread via a sub-brand. And it's now basically being surrounded by a couple of big vultures like Christian Horner and Toto Wolff as to figuring out where it's exactly going to go in terms of its future. Is it just going to be like the lackey of Mercedes? Or is it going to be its own independent thing, albeit with two power brokers that can easily turn on each other and eat each other's faces? Flatt and Christian. But neither way, this is a very interesting topic. And I think this does have legs. Let me know in the comments if you'd like me to expand upon this a little bit more. Watch this space. And also watch Ferrari. Because they really have been on one lately. And you might be thinking it's far too early to say that this is so their year or they're so black. The amount of projecting of optimism that they've been giving us the last couple of months is nothing short of transformative after what we've had to deal with throughout 2025. And you might be thinking I'm a fair weather fan, which might be fairly understandable if you're relatively new to the channel as a subscriber. But for those of you who might have been around a little bit longer, I remind you, I am a Ferrari well-wisher. Being a McLaren fan, I always wish Ferrari well because that rivalry has lasted for so many decades. It just feels right, you know? And even before then, I was a Ferrari fan through the Schumacher days as I got into Formula One at the age of 11. But there has been a lot of intrigue generated regarding the 2026 car. Bits here, bobs there, engines looking a lot better than many people envisioned last year when they thought it was looking absolutely hopeless, them railing against the system regarding the power unit split. Well, I mean, the shoe's on the other foot now, isn't it? Couple that with the relaxed demeanour of its team and drivers, their platform for this regulation cycle looks strong. Their upgrades look strong, including reports that the rotating wing, what Fred's dubbed the Macarena wing, could return for FP1 in China. I mean, it does make sense given the long straight and its potential benefits for top speed and braking. But there is more. You recall I mentioned yesterday how Mercedes seems to be flooding the zone Well, Ferrari's done something similar, albeit in a specialist way, via technical breakthroughs, them flooding the F1 paddock. Its most obvious public display is the fact that Lewis Hamilton seems happy again with life. And now, via a piece from Autoracer, there seems to be the idea that the current power unit of Ferraris is in a somewhat transitional phase, as in the power unit that we may actually have right now is not the one and done article, that there might be more gubbins added to it via patches here or there. But I know you might be immediately saying, well, wait a minute. They can't do that law. The power unit's been homologated. They can't do anything until 2027. Whatever bits they really want to bring for performance's sake have to be done at the beginning of the year. And then that's your lot. But as we found out throughout the whole compression ratio saga, there are plenty of loopholes to make use of at the beginning of a regulation cycle, right? And it might suggest to me that whilst they've been developing this power unit they're using right now, they might've developed something else in parallel. So something's giving me the feeling that they probably might've been working on two power unit concepts at once, or at the very least, an iterative model that they can use. It's a very interesting conundrum. There is always a loophole. The FIA does allow changes for reliability and safety, cost savings, supply issues, all sorts. As long as the FIA approves them, you can do it. There's also room for modifications required by a rule change or FIA guidance. Should Ferrari prove to the FIA that any upgrades brought to the engine during the year are on the grounds of those factors I just mentioned, then they're permissible. In any case, this news is just one more example of Ferrari asserting that they've got a very solid package underneath. Although operationally speaking, they are still a little bit tentative. But give it time, they will improve in terms of confidence once they realise they've got a concept which actually has potential to bring the fight to Mercedes. Just getting a third and fourth in Australia, that's okay. It's a lot more hope-inspiring than it was most of the time in 2025, am I right? The point is Ferrari is making waves again, and Aston Martin is making waves too, albeit for very, very wrong reasons. It's suffice to say that this team has not gotten off to the best start in terms of its own intrapersonal relationships. And whilst Australia did show us that this team does have a level of tenacity again, them actually performing with a lonesome stroll the hokey-cokey, as in retiring the car, then bringing the car back into the race again, then retiring it, and then again and again and so forth. It's still quite clear that this is under a lot of strain right now, some even musing that it could even be damaged beyond repair. I mean, the main issue is that the public tension is nothing short of suffocating. You must be agreeing with me on that. Adrian Newey's blunt assertions about what's gone wrong, saying Aston only realised in November of last year that Honda's rebuilt F1 operation wasn't as experienced as expected after its earlier withdrawal from the sport, he also linked Honda's current problems to serious vibration issues as well as battery damage, whilst Honda pushed back, stating that those kind of issues tend to come from another component, maybe the chassis resonating at the same frequency? In short, they believe the situation is a shared one that they must solve together, which I personally think is reasonable. Honda dropped the ball, Aston didn't do the proper checks and balances when they really should have, them partying for just a bit over two years. That's why at the Tokyo Motor Show, they all looked quite sober. Very. Painfully. Sober. And when Newey brings on the conversation to the grounds of safety, as in the vibrations in the steering wheel and potential nerve damage, that gets the alarm bells raised across from Wheeler One and everyone then points to Honda. I am stressing to you, you can't just blame Honda solely for this, that's just a lazy argument. I think in the Honda backrooms, it's not gonna go down well at all, that this is the kind of thing they were dealing with at McLaren, that they were being seen as the sole scapegoat for everything that was going on at McLaren, as we found out in 2018. They weren't the sole reason why McLaren sucked at that time. It was only when Honda got accepted into the bosom of Christian Horner when they had the space and assurances they could get to work on the problems with Toro Rosso before then moving up to Red Bull in 2019, and they really did hit the ground running and had plenty of success for the next few years. It's just a shame that the board of directors decided to play chicken once again at the end of 2020. If you want to find anyone to blame, it's that board of directors at the time. But all of that finger pointing, it just erodes trust fast. The team we saw before FP1 did not look like a united front. Only during the race weekend proper were there hopes of something better. That being said, there is a difference between a damaged relationship and a dead one. Just keep an eye on Fernando's body language, that'll tell you everything you need to know. Also, early pain was going to happen. Even the harsher reports are describing a project in crisis, but not a breakup in motion. And there's no solid signs yet as to whether or not each party is about to walk away, but it just gives me the feeling that they really need to pull their socks up and get on with the job at hand instead of blaming each other. It will really be dependent on what the language is this weekend, whether or not it's just a case of just getting on with the job and then hoping come Suzuka there's some kind of patch to reduce the vibrations so they can maybe put in a spirited performance, finish the race at the very least. But I do think it's perfectly valid to say that this relationship is very bruised and it's almost mistrustful even. But dead? No, not yet. But if public frustration then turns into political frustration and then causes political motives to come afoot, then you might be starting to think that maybe one of those parties could be heading for the exit. But let me know in the comments as well if you'd like me to talk about this, because the BYD topic as well, these are very tantalizing topics. But okay, let's talk about the Shanghai track itself. It's one of the stranger F1 tracks out there, shaped almost identically to the Chinese character Shang, half the city name, meaning in English ascend. Well, I can imagine you ascend a pretty tall lift up those two tall stacks down the start-finish straight. 56 laps on Sunday with one of the most distinctive opening sequences in the sport, where it turns one and two, tightening coil, trying to tie the front tyres into a knot. Pirelli are bringing C2, C3 and C4 here this weekend, and with the forecast looking pretty cool actually, 14 degrees tops on Sunday, I expect the race to lean towards strategic caution. And thanks to that Pirelli graphic, they really do come good with those. Braking and lateral load will be very important. And if a team is really bad with his tyre deg on those C2s, expect it to be very, very painful. And we saw allusions to that with the Sappen at Australia's race. Unless they come up with some way in terms of setup, it's a little bit dicey with Max and Red Bull. And for those of you wondering, in terms of super clipping, if it's going to be really bad in China because of that long straight, I don't think it's going to be as bad as it was in Australia. Because after the first six corners, there weren't really many corners in which you could really get plenty of juice when it comes to brake regeneration. In China, there are plenty of those moments. And the middle sector, it's very twisty, windy, medium speed corners. You can maintain a decent level of battery. Yes, it's going to be very, very tight toward the end of the straight, but it's going into a hairpin, and then a little bit of a blap, then a braking thing. I think it'll be fine. And when it comes to the lower points battles, it's going to be for P6, Piastri versus Verstappen, as to who will be hounding my pick for P5. That in a moment. Hajar should be in the top 10 discussion too, given his impressive Saturday. Hanging in there at the start before his engine conked out as well. And points could be afforded to anyone repping a Haas machine, given that Esteban Ocon had a very fruitful time here last year. And as much as I would want to shout from the rooftops regarding Audi, I remain cautiously optimistic. I recall Audi getting some really, really good top speeds in testing. One of the best in the entire field. And with this track being quite forgiving with the current configuration of the 50-50 split, which could change after the Japanese Grand Prix, I would want to think that Audi would do quite well and bag some more points here. But I am reminded that in terms of reliability out of Haas, Alpine and them, Audi was the shakiest. Gabi being hit in Q3, and then Hop got nobbled so he couldn't even start the race. That is something to consider. As for the worst team, well, I mean, it's Aston Martin. Cadillac, I don't think are really going to be putting up much of a fight for anything higher than maybe 16, unless there are a huge amount of DNFs. But I mean, come on. Aston Martin just want to get through this weekend and try and get some more data. Maybe eke it out for a little bit longer. But I do expect some kind of hokey-kokey action this weekend as well. But enough about that. You want to know about my top five picks for the Grand Prix, and that's understandable since, well, this is why partly you're here. Anyway, here they are. In fifth place, I bring Lando Norris here. And out of my picks for the top five, this is admittedly one of the shakiest. Because he could easily justify a case for maybe getting into the top three or succumb to the bottom points positions, being very much susceptible to Max Verstappen. Really depends on what happens in terms of qualifying. But it's worth pointing out McLaren were excellent here last year, and Norris podiumed the year before. So the circuit itself clearly doesn't frighten the team. But the trouble is, though, is that the early evidence so far suggests that McLaren isn't yet comfortable with the new rules, and they are very much between themselves and Red Bull for the third place in the pecking order award, them claiming to be about a second behind Mercedes and Ferrari. And Australia backed that up. But it wasn't all doom and gloom. He still got P5 in the race. He did make progress, even though Andreas Stella is still really confused as to why they can't extract much of the Mercedes power unit in comparison to the works team. But Lando did learn very quickly throughout the race. He was pumping in times not that different to the leaders, but the damage had already been done in his fact-finding at the beginning of the race and all the chaos. He resulted 50 seconds behind the leaders. But I do think it will be that little bit closer in the race. But McLaren, they are still not the best team. So fifth place does seem like the upper limits of what they can do, save for any catastrophes or quali dramas. He could adapt similarly here, as long as they are able to nail the team, the setup in FP1, or gleam something between the sprint race and Q1. The C3 might be their sweet spot here. And Norris' damage limitation mindset might be something that gives them that stable position because they really have to shift their perspective, this team. They really have to think in damage limitation capacities right now, McLaren, until they can get that really big, juicy upgrade, which usually tends to happen after maybe five or six Grand Prix. For those of you who are McLaren fans, are doom-mongering, thinking that they are absolutely the worst and have a tractor, don't be despondent just yet. Things can easily change. But they might have to rely upon either Mercedes or Ferrari being on the back foot. But given their own evidences about what they're going to be bringing to Shanghai, that doesn't seem very likely. And that brings me to fourth place. I predict it's going to be Kimi Antonelli. And I reckon that not many people were paying much attention to the Italian, given that out of the two drivers, he certainly had a very ropey Albert Park weekend. Really in the walls, wasn't he? Either through the team dropping the ball in terms of operations, getting them a really hefty fine, or that crash in FP3. But he still came back from that. He managed to pump it into Q2 and finish only three seconds behind Russell. He is going to be a thorn in George's side this year, I tell you. It's clear that that Mercedes is friendly enough for him to lean on and long-run data from Bahrain looks strong in his hands as well. But why I have him not on the podium is that Shanghai isn't that kind to rookies as it throws everything at them in regards to cornering. There's a lot going on here. But Antonelli's not arriving blind or anything. Last year, he took points in both races. And last year, he was compromised by floor damage, according to his team. So it could have easily have been more. In other words, he's got the track mileage and he still came away with a decent result. If Mercedes truly is the class of the field, P4 for them, if everything goes smoothly, should be the bare minimum. It depends whether or not Ferrari are still overly cautious like they were in Melbourne, albeit through understandable reasons. And that brings me on to those two Ferrari drivers. Right now, they seem to be actually relatively level-pegging after Charles Leclerc literally wiped the floor with Lewis's despondent nature last year. But the tides seem to be shifting. And out of the two right now, I suspect Leclerc to be the one in P3 this weekend. And that's not me dunking on his pace or anything. His raw speed in Melbourne showed that he can bring something to the table. He can battle it with George Russell. And if Ferrari can just get on it with their operations, they have the reliability, which is bulletproof, and those innovations continue to keep coming, and the power unit talks, he is still very much a title contender. But right now, he is very much just keeping things smooth and steady. The SF26 looks like a car light on nasty surprises too. And Mercedes did have some in Melbourne as well. But you're still wanting to know why he's only got P3 here with me. Well, Shanghai can punish a car that's fast, but still a little bit peaky. And it also doesn't help that Charles Leclerc's not really had the best of luck at this circuit over the years. But the team should be strong here, no doubt. If there is a chance for a double podium, this is a good one. But I still trust Mercedes slightly more of a full Shanghai stint. And I slightly trust Hamilton more at this specific venue, given the respective drivers' experiences here. And when it gets really cool and technical, because again, the temperatures this weekend are only going to be about 14 degrees. That is pretty chilly. That's not far off the temperatures we see in Vegas. The only difference here is at least there is some sunlight here. But then again, it is kind of cloudy as well. So if it's cloudy and a bit nippy, my feeling is that he will be on the podium. He will be in contention for pole. And he might even get a really good feeling at the start as well. But George Russell is lightning at those starts as well. It very much feels like, as we saw at the beginning of the Australian Grand Prix, going to be a bit of a three-way. And one of those other reps in the three-way is indeed Lewis Hamilton. Lewis looked really, really spicy in Melbourne. He really had fun with these cars after then admitting that it takes a university degree to try and get on top of these cars. Well, it seems like he's on top of these cars now. And he's got a fairly decent rapport with his acting race engineer before his proper one comes along later in the year, them coming from McLaren. And even if you're a Lewis hater out there, you've got to admit, his tone is incredibly feisty. And that can only be a good thing for Formula 1 as a whole. I'm pretty sure Stefano's really happy that Hamilton's being quite chirpy at the moment about the cars, unlike other champions. And again, this is one of his best tracks. And he also won the sprint last year. The only kind of victory that Ferrari got that year. In commanding fashion, too. He can read this place beautifully. It's just a shame that that was the peak of his year before Ferrari realised that Leica was going to be their dead body in 2025. However, that was down partially to technical fumbling from Ferrari. But it was a fundamental one. What's evident this year is that there is nothing of the sort anymore. The long opening sequence rewards patience, too, as well as front tyre feel and commitment on turning. That's Hamilton's bread and butter. Ferrari was already pretty close in Melbourne. And even though they were cautious in pit stop strategy, they still could bring some kind of fight. And the relative static nature of Leclerc at the end, as Lewis was closing in, and almost likely to take Leclerc for third place, his first Ferrari Grand Prix podium, he can do something with that car. Especially if he can eke out harder tyres. This is something really intriguing. You might be thinking this is British bias, but there is genuinely something here which is clicking. Something which is generating energy within himself and the team. Lewis's despondent nature last year really did drag Ferrari down. That did not help. If the seven-time world champion is having this much of a good time, Ferrari will be having a good time. As is Leclerc. He's having a really good time, too. It just really depends on which of those two is having the best of times. And this cool weather, whoever can do better with the harder tyres to try and eke out maybe a one-stop strategy, could be the kingmaker of Ferrari this weekend. Charles may not have it all to himself here. Hamilton has got the juice. But obviously, though, George Russell is my pick for the win because he just simply seems to be having it in spades. He is still pretty good at starts, even though Ferrari has the advantage. He's clicking well with the W17. He's got the motivation. He can battle it with Leclerc. And he can also keep those tyres going. Unlike in 2024, which when he tried to do that, it resulted in a disqualification. He had something to work with. Something that you can't really say he's had over the last couple of years. Whether or not that changes after tweaks to the ruleset is a matter for another time. Australia more or less stumped that in ink for George that he had the tyre control to do something. He didn't have to worry about fluke chaoses. That will count in Shanghai because this place asks the same big questions over and over. Can your car hold onto the fronts to the endless opening complex and survive the huge straight plus hairpin sequence without cooking them or draining the battery? Right now, Mercedes looks like the least compromised car, albeit Ferrari is very close and could easily overtake them if developments go the way they're going. Muscle also arrives here with confidence humming out of his ears. He's leading the World Championship for the first time in his career. He has got something over Antonelli, although it is a lot closer than he probably thought. Toto is backing him. Max Verstappen showing no interest in taking his seat. More interested in repping Mercedes GT3 machinery in a different category entirely. It's all going gravy for Woody and he was excellent last year too. He was the best of the rest behind the two McLarens. Sure, he doesn't have the mythology of Lewis Hamilton at the Shanghai circuit, but this could easily be the place for him to begin his mythos here, having the first Chinese Grand Prix to his name. And I realised via social media, he's got a really big fan base in China. I had no idea that he had that. He is the safest bet for P1, but I really want to know how close it is between he and Lewis for that victory, or whether or not it's going to be one of those 10, 15 second jobbies about him winning. And a jobbie for you right now is to satiate my curiosity as to what you're about to do next, because this is a video that I believe you could really chew over. I'll just go and get myself ready for you over there.