Iran War

Hi, welcome to my channel. It's the 13th day of the Iran war, and it's in a very precarious situation right now. This started from a surgical assassination back in the 28th of February, when America declared victory, saying they killed the entire leadership, the first, second, and third successor in line. But this did not turn out to be true. After Ali Khamenei died, Mojtaba Khamenei witnessed the death of his mother and father, wife, children, and nephews. Instead of destroying the leadership, America has turned them into martyrs, essentially creating a hardline successor hell-bent on revenge. Now the US is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Iran is posing a two-pronged threat, via oil blockades and military prolongment. On one hand, the Strait of Hormuz has been enclosed by Iran, so 20% of global crude oil is not able to enter the global market. This raises prices, inflation, and elevates the risk of a recession. On the other hand, FAD and Priest missile defense systems will eventually lose the war of attrition, because these are expensive interceptors, which will be overwhelmed by cheap drones and missiles over a long period of time. These factors combined means that America cannot fight a long-term war, because a bad economy kills polling numbers and domestic favorability. This has dramatically shortened the timeline, and Pentagon officials knew this. The risks of closing the Strait were That's why the surgical strike was so important, and this is when you actually take a closer look at the strike itself. It was hailed as a great victory because of its pinpoint accuracy. Khamenei, his family, the top military officials, were all gathered in the same place. If a chain of command is broken, a regime collapse would not be able to trigger a coordinated missile attack on the Gulf countries or close the Strait of Hormuz. However, Mojitaba Ali's son has survived. You have not destroyed the leadership. You replaced it with a dark successor poised for revenge. The system is still operating. The heart is still beating. You only aggravated your opponent, and that is the worst case scenario. He has resumed control over the government. So now you're in a situation where you're forced to depose him or force a deal, break a deal, find an off ramp. My question is why the entire family and branch was in one location in the first place? I mean, surely they knew that they were economically sanctioned and Trump has made overt threats to kill the leadership before. So usually these successors should be dispersed to avoid chaos. If all of them die at the same time, maybe they couldn't risk online communication. So physical meetings are the only way. The second most important aspect is whether there actually was a plan B, there was a backup plan. Is there a backup plan? I believe this high risk, high reward tendency really stems from overconfidence on Trump's part, because he pulled this off three times before. The ISIS leader Ali Baghdadi in Syria in 19, Fordo in 25, and Maduro in 26. They were all swift and successful. However, it's still a bit of a gamble. Even if the next person picks up the mantelpiece, they might not be compliant to the US. There was an assumption that you can keep killing, keep bombing the leadership, but that's clearly not the case, because Marjorie Taver survived. Even if he was not unscathed, he suffered leg, hand, and facial injuries, but he's scarred. Still well enough to keep the engine oiled. Yesterday, the US conducted the largest bombing campaign ever, and he seems to be fine. The most realistic outcome is they need to weed him out before the time runs out, before the polling becomes sour for the midterms. The surgical strike was not clean. Marjorie Taver rose from the rubble and took charge very quickly. So it's not the best situation. In fact, it's the worst situation. When asked by reporters what the worst case scenario is in the war, Trump himself said that a more hardline successor would be the worst option. That's the situation you have right now. That's the reality. And this war hinges on whether Marjorie Taver is able to survive. If he does, the only option is to retreat. Diplomacy and concessions, Russia and China would be the natural negotiators for breaking a deal, shifting the political tide further into a multi-polar direction. Hopefully, he doesn't come to that. And that's all I have. It's a difficult situation. And at the start of the war, you were filled with a kind of optimism that the leadership, at least, was destroyed. But now, it's not that clear. And the moves going forward are highly dependent on the strikes, probably a bit of luck as well. So we'll see how it unfolds. And that's all I have for today. So thank you. Appreciate your time. And take care.