Urgent Warning to ALL Investors! (Happening Now!)

We have two main topics to talk about in this video, a big threat Iran is making against tech companies. And later in this video, a stock that the market says has 10 X potential by 2030. So let's talk about what's dominating the news this very second. That's probably giving a lot of people fear rightfully. So you're hearing about tensions with Iran fears surrounding the Strait of Hormuz oil prices now trading above $102 a barrel and what that could mean for inflation. At the same time, we're seeing headlines about Iran threatening us technology infrastructure in the Middle East. And on top of that, we have a massive restructuring happening inside tech companies, including reports that medic could cut as much as 20% of its workforce while pouring enormous amounts of money into artificial intelligence for a new investor. This can feel overwhelming. It is overwhelming. It feels like the world is falling apart and the market should be reacting dramatically. But moments like this are exactly where the most important investing lessons show up. Because when news like this hits, investors tend to make two big mistakes. They panic sell or they chase whatever part of the market is actually moving the fastest. And both of these reactions can destroy wealth in the long run. Remember something we talk about all the time. And if you're new to the channel, you'll hear it over and over. We are investors, not speculators. So let's start with oil. One of the reasons tensions with Iran gets so much attention is because of that straight of Hormuz. It's a narrow shipping lane between Iran and Oman, but it's one of the most important energy routes in the entire world. About 20% of the global oil supply flows through that single passage every single day. So anytime tensions rise in that region, the market immediately reacts and oil completely jumps up. Why? Well, if you limit the supply of oil prices go up. And that's exactly what we're seeing right now with oil trading above a hundred hours a barrel with a lot of volatility. Suddenly analysts start predicting much higher prices. Inflation fears come back into the conversation and people begin to panic about what could happen next. But here's the thing that investors need to remember predicting oil prices is investing. Investing is based on one simple principle. Every investment is the present value of all the future cash flows that it will generate. Not the present value of tomorrow's headline, not the present value of next week's oil price, not even the present value of one year's profits and cashflow. It's all future cashflow. Now here's a part of the story that isn't getting as much attention, but it is incredibly interesting. Iranian affiliated media recently listed several major us technology companies as potential targets and what they called an infrastructure war. And the companies mentioned were some of the biggest names in technology, Nvidia, Palantir, Microsoft, Google, IBM, Amazon. Now when people hear that headline, they imagine something incredibly dramatic like these companies themselves being attacked, but that's not really what's being discussed. The threats are mostly aimed at infrastructure connected to these companies in the Middle East, particularly data centers and technology facilities in places like Israel and the Gulf region. Why are those the targets? Well, because modern warfare is no longer just about tanks and missiles and infantry. It's also about data, artificial intelligence, and digital infrastructure. Companies like Palantir provide analytics and intelligence platform that's used by the U S military. Nvidia, well, they build the advanced chips powering AI systems and supercomputers cloud providers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. They run enormous computing platforms that governments and militaries both depend on. So from Iran's perspective, these companies aren't just tech companies. They're part of the digital backbone of Western defense and intelligence systems, and that's why they appear in these conversations. But here is where investors need to stay rational. These companies are global organizations with massive distributed infrastructure. Their core operations aren't dependent on a single data center or a single region. So even if geopolitical tensions create risks in one location, the impact on the overall business might not be as people people dramatically say. Now, while all of this geopolitical news is unfolding, something huge is happening inside the tech industry. We're witnessing one of the largest investment cycles in technology history, and it may just be getting started in a perfect example. That is meta. Reports have surfaced saying that medical potentially reduce its workforce by as much as 20% that would impact 15,000 to 16,000 employees. That's dramatic. It sounds dramatic, but the reason behind it tells a bigger story about where the industry is going. Meta is investing enormous amounts of money into artificial intelligence infrastructure. Estimates suggest the company's capital spending could reach 115 to $135 billion in the coming year. That money is going towards things like massive AI data centers, advanced computing clusters, specialized AI chips, and next generation AI systems. These investments are part of a much broader race amongst tech giants to build the infrastructure that will power the AI economy. But here's the interesting part. At the same time, companies are spending more money than ever on technology. They're also becoming leaner organizations. AI can now perform tasks that once required large teams of employees, coding assistance, customer support, content moderation, data analysis. As AI becomes more capable, companies can operate with fewer people. So what we're seeing with meta isn't necessarily a sign of weakness. It is a strategic shift. And interestingly enough, reports about these layoffs surface meta stock actually went up because investors interpreted the move as cost discipline combined with aggressive investment in the future. Guys, part of my dilemma when you're operating this channel is I'm very fortunate to only think about the future. My wife, you know, just two weeks ago said to me, man, you, and we weren't even talking about investing. We were talking about our life. We were talking about our personal money. We're talking about it. And she said, man, you only think about 15, 20 years down the road, don't you? And I remember thinking to myself like, well, yeah, how'd you just now realize this? But then I remember the days of 25, 30 years ago when I cared about every little thing happening in the world and how it affected my stocks at any given moment. I look at it going, I don't care if Iran and the U S go to war for a temporary piece of time. I don't care if we have oil prices that even go to $150 a barrel. Guys, we hit $140 a barrel and oh, wait, I look at it as, okay, if meta spends a lot of money today, will it pay off in the future? And if it doesn't pay off in the future, how much cashflow will they generate when they stop wasting money? It's kind of like the way I look at things. Could they spend a lot of money on CapEx right now? Sure. Will it be a waste? Possibly. Do I have to factor that into my analysis? Yeah, of course. I have to sit there and say, man, they wasted a lot of money there. But at the end of the day, I have to look at the bigger picture and that bigger picture of meta is, are people using Instagram and Facebook and WhatsApp more every single month? The answer to that is yes. Have they fully monetized all the three of those? The answer to that is no. So I look at that saying, well there's a lot more potential in what they're doing. And guys, I haven't given up in the metaverse. I still think there's a lot of potential on the metaverse down the road. Isn't losing money like crazy. Absolutely. But we haven't even scratched the surface on it. I think there's so much value to the metaverse guys. The one thing I keep talking about in my metaverse is buying courtside tickets to sporting events. Imagine you sit there and instead of spending $5,000 or whatever the cost is to sit courtside at the Lakers game, they charge 20,000 people, 500 bucks, way more revenue for them. They can't, instead of selling one seat, they can sell hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of seats or thousands of seats to people. That's where I see the value. I want to go look at a house I want to buy instead of going to the house. I do the metaverse. There's so much more value to that. That's what I think about when it comes to it. I think about the bigger picture. I want you to have that same outlook. I want you to not worry about the billion things are going to happen between now and a year from now in the world that we could sit there and attach ourselves to. But it's easy to get attached to that media story. Guys, our videos are, we put the most dramatic title we can put out there to get your attention. And then we teach a deeper story inside of it. YouTube won't even show you the video of it's not modeled that way. But the great news is we are the place of calm and guys, the NASDAQ being down three and a half percent year to date is not bad. We want to be the calm when the next deck is down 30, 40, 50% or more. We do believe that's going to happen at some point, but here's where investors often get into trouble. They see the headlines about war. They see the headlines about layoffs. They see the headlines about oil. They see the headlines about blank, whatever it is. And it's very easy to react emotionally. That is not your fault. That is the way we were programmed. So people panic sell or they chase whatever sector is moving the fastest and make up for that fear. But most of the time these headlines are short-term noise compared to the long-term economics of great businesses. A geopolitical headline might move a stock for a few days or a few weeks or even a few years, but the long-term value of a company is determined by the cash flows that it will produce over many, many years to come. That's the difference between trading and investing. Munger always says the money is not made in the buying or selling it's made in the waiting. When I first started investing during the late nineties, during that interval in the internet bubble, I made the same mistake so many people are making today. I chase the excitement. I bought stocks simply because they were going up and I learned a painful lesson. Price going up does not mean values going up. That realization pushed me towards value investing and completely changed the way in which I approach markets. Now, whether the headlines are about wars, oil spikes, tech threats, or layoffs, the process stays the same. Understand the business. Understand how it makes money. Understand how it could lose money and try to figure out a range of what kind of cash flows it'll generate in the future. Then compare that value that you've determined to the price the market is offering. Are you a buyer? Are you a seller or are you holding? So when you hear all the noise about Iran oil prices above a hundred threats, all that stuff, remember something important news follows the stock price and news will move markets in the short run. Because remember in the short run, stocks are voting machine a long run, their weighing machine, the value will drive the price in the longterm. Don't panic sell because everyone else is scared and don't chase stocks simply because everyone else is excited. Blindly following the crowd is one of the fastest ways to lose money in the market. Instead, focus on value. And remember, we are investors, not speculators. So guys, we just talked about what's all over the news right now, but I want to pivot to a topic that a lot of investors are obsessed with right now. The idea of finding the next 10 X stock. So let's go to the board and take a quick look at what's driving that conversation right now. All right, so take a look at this. It says the market has been somewhat volatile this year and that several stocks are showing a lot of longterm growth potential. Then it says that they identified three stocks with potential to explode by 2030 Palantir, Symbiotic and CoreWeave. The article says the reason these three companies made the list is because they have deep exposure to longterm structural trends like artificial intelligence and automation. And these companies have strategic partnerships, which could position them for further growth over the next few years. Guys, I'm going to hold my thoughts for now. So just stay with me here in a minute or two. We'll actually get going into analyzing a stock, but I want to show you another article first. Okay. This article talks about five stocks set to 10 X next year. And here's what it says. It says, let's make one thing clear. Blue chip moonshot wagers are excellent bets. If you're willing to stick around for a while, anyone buying Amazon in 2001 would have waited a decade to cash in a 10 X gain, but Tesla managed to do it in three years. Then it says, today's article is about getting rich quickly. And to do that, we need to buy some ugly ducklings. Today's article is about getting rich quickly, guys. I want to accentuate this day's article is about getting rich quickly. Okay. So let's go look at the first stock that they mentioned real quick hurts the article. This is what it says about hurts. It says the shares had risen from two 50 to $30 and it recommends readers buy shares and bankrupt hurts. Yes, you heard that correctly. The stock is selling at about $4 today. So guys, they're talking about when they went back public, it hit 30 back here. That was five years ago. And just because it was 35 years ago, doesn't mean it's a great buy. Go tell it to the people at all the.com companies and all the workhorses. And then Nikolas look at lucid, a company that is still around selling more cars. Their stock is down 97%. Guys, this article was written November 5th, 2021. So it's certainly must have 10 X, right guys. That's the funny part. It was written back here. This is a fall of over 80%. Do you see what I'm getting at here? But anybody on the internet can tell you that a stock is going up. And if you just blindly follow that, you could really get hurt. All this person said was the stock was at 30 guys. Now it's at four, five years later, guys repeat. This article was written November of 2021, where he said, these are stocks that will 10 X. So you can get rich quick, but let me not cherry pick the first stock from this article. It is easy to cherry pick. And I hate it when people do that on anything. So I'm not trying to do that. But I look at the process here going, the guy just basically said, cause it was at 30 before it's at 30. Now it's just surpassed. It's on the upward movement to go buy it. It is now down over 80%. Let's look at another company. R K F L. Rocket fuel, blockchain, Inc. This is the chart guys. November of 21 is right here. The stock was only at 58 cents per share, 60 cents per share. Now it's at zero cents per share. They say this company was introducing one click crypto payments. That was going to transform the entire crypto market guys. This is what I don't like out there. The benefit of the internet is made it life a lot easier to go learn things, to go understand things. But there's also the downside of the internet is it gives anybody a voice and getting rich quick is a very common theme amongst a lot of people. And it's no surprise that 60 or 70 years ago, the average hold time in stocks was in the years. And now we're talking about days or something like that. I don't know the exact number, but it's literally over 99% down. Whenever that happens, it does not work out. Cause if your sole focus is getting rich, when it does get hard, which it will, you will not be able to continue doing it. Now I'm going to show you a stock that actually is worth looking at right now, in my opinion. And I also just want to remind you, sometimes you may see us use titles similar to some of these articles. The reason we do that is very, very strategic. We want to make sure that we reach new viewers. And our goal is to intercept their path before they get hurt by stuff like this that we just looked at. I sit there and say, listen, if I can help even one to 5% of the people who watch our video to change their thinking from get rich quick to long-term investing and actually do that mission accomplished. I've always said I'd rather have 500,000 followers who are dedicated to the process than 50 million followers who are always trying to churn and burn and trying to get, get kind of get rich quick. That is an absolute fact for us. So let's look at the stock. That is one of the top companies that I'm interested in right now. And I'm not going to promise you 10 X or anything at all in this video. In fact, I will never promise you anything. I'm here to teach a process just because I own it, which I do doesn't mean you should. In fact, never buy a stock because anybody in the world owns it. Warren Buffett included, Charlie Munger got, you know, rest in peace, anybody. What I want you to do is learn a process that fits what you're trying to accomplish and apply it in the way in which you see the world. So I'm showing the stock as an example of how to find mispricing. Cause what we do is we look for situations where the price of a stock becomes disconnected from the value of the business. And when price and value disconnect, that's where opportunity shows up. So I'm here to show you a stock that I like and Michael Burry likes. It is Adobe. Now I have a great value investor friend who doesn't like the stock. He's just like, yeah, the business is declining. It sucks. I'm not buying it. I'm like, okay, cool. Don't care. I wanted his input and I heard what he said, but it didn't sound like, I think he was still worried too much about the story. And that's, and I would tell him that to his face, but here's Adobe all time high of $700, just four years and four months ago. And now it's sitting at two 70, hit a low of two 44 just last month. Just a few weeks ago. Actually this is a company that is supposedly declining in the last five years. They did an average of 7.8 billion in free cashflow last year. They did almost 10 billion. Maybe the business is getting worse, but by that means maybe the growth is slowing down. I don't know if the business is actually getting worse. You've got increasing margins, 28.6% a year for the last 10 years, 30% last year, gross profit of 90%. So even if the business is getting worse, they've got immense gross profit. Even the growth isn't as high as it used to be. This gross profit allows them to continue selling and pushing a lot of money, that cashflow and high returns on capital. Great sign of a business to me. These are the things that matter. Hertz did not have that. Hertz didn't have any of this. If I blocked the name of the companies and just showed you those metrics, you'd be hard pressed to say, okay, where's the play on Hertz? Where's the play on rocket Bitcoin crypto bullshit exchange? I have no idea. It's absolutely crazy. All right, let's go to the eight pillars, eight pillar thriller. And again, not a reason to buy a company. Just because it has eight pillars and date check marks does not mean it's a buy, but it tells a story and that story tells me they're buying back shares that are now cheaper. Cash flows up, revenues up, net incomes up, low debt, high returns on capital and reasonable valuation metrics. What else could you ask for? If the story was terrible though, if somebody came out and said, Hey, Adobe is going to get shut down by the government and then I'm going to be allowed to operate. It doesn't matter what these checks are, but the goal, the hard part about investing is saying is the story out there, the accurate story. Now there are a lot of key metrics out here. It's very important in every video we go through them and I know it can feel overwhelming, but you got to remember it was overwhelming for everyone at some point. So I've made it very easy. I have a cheat sheet with all of these metrics that you can download right now. Click the link below. It'll be sent to you in a matter of seconds and allows you to speak the same language we're speaking. It gives you all of these key metrics, explains them how to calculate them, why they're important. That way you and I can speak the same language and you can apply it to your own research as you use our software or even if you don't to allow you to go look at other companies. But I'll tell you what, it's a lot easier if you have the software. So next thing, let's see what analysts have to say about this. Well, they see a lot of growth still for the company. Doesn't mean it's true, but this is earnings per share growth over the next four or five years. Pretty, on average, pretty close to double digits. Not bad for coming to this declining because look at the revenue growth. I'm actually surprised the profit growth isn't higher. 10%, 9%, 8%, 6%, 7.5%. Now you might sit there and say, yeah, but Paul, the growth is declining. Sure it is. Let me ask you a question. Would you pay $1 for the company? Not for the stock price, for the entire company. The answer would be of course. Would you pay a hundred trillion? Of course not. Somewhere in the middle, it becomes a really good investment. Your job is to figure out that price. So this is why we go to the stock analyzer tool. It allows us to put all this together. Remember, if you're just buying a story, you're not investing. It's about saying, Hey, if I overpay for a good idea, I might not do very well, but of course, a better idea, a better growth rate deserves a higher premium. So first line revenue growth because revenue is a big component of value investing. I did five, eight, 11% revenue growth per year for the next 10 years profit margin. I'm focusing on free cashflow here because of how much higher it is. And that's the true lifeblood of the Brit business. I put 3740 and 43 that what price to free cashflow would I apply to the company 10 years from now? Well, got high returns on capital. It's got a pretty big moat in my opinion. I don't think it's going to be gone and it's got a great balance sheet. So I'm going to put 16, 19 and 22, 15 or 16. It's kind of like you start at the market average and go higher for good companies, lower for bad companies. I could see the argument for a much higher penis and price of free cashflow. And finally, 9% intrinsic value, no margin of safety return, not the price I'm going to buy it at, but the price I think it's worth today. This is in my opinion, one of the best values throughout all of what everything money offers. So imagine that you're going to take a college course, right? You're going to pay what four or $5,000 to go sit there and learn from a professor, probably been a lifelong professor. You know, maybe he's practiced what he's teaching. Maybe he hasn't. In this you get eight weeks of classes with Paul and Dalton. It'll be on zoom. We limit the class size so that you can actually have direct FaceTime with them. I just listened to the options class. Um, the first one that Paul did, the first thing he asked everybody is, you know, I want to get to know you guys. Like, you know, where are you from? You know, what's your history with options and investing, how long you've been with everything money. So you're going to actually get to know Paul and Dalton. You're going to get to ask the real questions. As you learn, you're going to learn how to read financial statements, look at the eight pillars, the key metrics, how to understand analyst estimates and actually work to build them into your assumptions and figure out the due diligence you need to do. You're going to learn over the course of multiple sessions, how to make good assumptions on stock analyzer from Paul and Dalton. You're going to talk about your own personal scenarios and portfolios. You're going to talk about your plan for retirement. It's an incredible course. You're going to learn a ton from them. You're going to actually get to, you know, really know them and be in this scenario where you're on a zoom with them. You can see them face to face if they're going through the balance sheet and you know, you have a question for Dalton about how he assesses something. You just stop and ask him and you actually get to learn directly. The reason this course is an incredible value because we're all about price versus value is it's only four 97 for that entire eight week course, eight classes, and you get three months of the software included, which is basically $120 plus off of your price. So guys, if you're interested, I'm showing you the page right now. It has all the breakdowns and everything. You can go sign up. You can do it right now. You can just click the link, reserve your spot. Like I said, we limit them. I've had probably 15 calls with people and nearly all of them have signed up just in recent week and a half. Um, so this class fills up, it filled up fast the last time that we did it. It was an excellent class. If you're interested and want to sign up, go click now, go reserve your spot. If you want to talk to me more, we're going to drop a link in the description for a quick 15 minute call where you and I can talk about your goals, what you're looking for and make sure the class is right for you. I hit the analyze button. I have a low price of two 30, high price of four 88 middle price of three 34 guys. I don't know if I'm gonna be right on Adobe, but if I had 30 or 40 companies with these potential returns, based on my assumptions, I'm probably going to do quite well. Remember guys, price going up, price going down, tells you nothing. It's about the value of the business and how you can pay above or below it. This is a far better process than looking to stock that went up or down and saying, it's going to rebound. This is about understanding what you're buying. You find that the people who are most calm are the ones who understand what they're doing. I want that for you. Cause I used to be in your shoes where I didn't understand what I was buying. I thought I was buying a stock that was going up and down. I thought I was buying a story. Now what's interesting is I picked my own mag, seven last year, Adobe was part of it. So there were six other stocks that I had going against the actual magnificent seven. My goal is to track them over the next five or 10 years. So far, we're done with 2025 and now we're into 2026. And I got to tell you, it's getting really, really interesting. And one of the best comments I heard from somebody on the YouTube channel was they said, Paul, I'm giving you a little bit of a spoiler away. I was very surprised you made this video. You've got a lifelong viewer because of that. And you'll see why. So click on the video on your screen right now to see why I picked them and how they're stacking up right now to the real magnificent seven. Thank you for your time.