How High Gold Silver Can Go Once The Recovery Starts

Hello everyone, welcome to BaldGuyMoney and this past Friday we saw something we haven't really seen since the start of the war against Iran and that is metals moving up along with oil while the stock market moved down and this movement, specifically the move we saw this past Friday with silver and gold up 2 and 3 percent respectively, has many people asking if this is the moment that precious metals are decoupling from the broader market as they possibly stop fulfilling their role as a source of liquidity and start behaving more like safe haven assets. And it's a fair question to ask because as you can all see here, the hole that once hot stocks are falling into in 2026 is only getting bigger with Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta, which is Facebook's parent company, all down more than 20 percent on the year while silver, gold, and even the gold mining stocks represented here by the GDX ETF are all relatively flat and gaining value versus these falling companies. With gold and silver growing their share of the top 10 assets once again this past week with both metals now standing at 63.1 percent of the value of the top 10 assets ranked by with silver very close to regaining its number two position on this list. Now in this video I want to discuss this potential decoupling, what is causing it to happen, the impact of it to my gold and silver recovery timeline, and we'll finish by taking a close look at two major crashes in gold and silver price to give us an idea of what a recovery in gold and silver prices will probably look like, how high prices may go, and how they compare versus my price targets for gold and silver with a final bonus message at the end of this video for people who want to meet up with me and talk to me in the month of April. Now just before we start I want to remind everyone that in my opinion Summit Metals is the absolute best place to go for gold and silver online. 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So jumping in, decoupling, we're starting to hear more about it as conditions in the credit market, specifically private credit, get ugly and for those of you who watched my video three weeks ago this was one of the key factors I told everyone to watch carefully as a sign that could trigger a safe haven recovery for gold and silver despite a falling stock market and rising oil prices as BlackRock was limiting withdrawals from one of their private credit funds followed by similar issues faced by Morgan Stanley just one week later. And this situation is now being followed up with problems at UBS, which is Switzerland's largest bank, which has halted withdrawals altogether now from a real estate fund for up to three years according to news that broke this past week due to liquidity issues in the fund. And stories like this, although not so significant yet, are revealing stress in the financial markets that usually lead to lower confidence in credit and paper assets, which have historically resulted in a flight to hard tangible assets like gold and silver, which carry no counterparty risk. Much like we saw during the banking scare of 2023 when higher interest rates caused a few large banks to fail as the value of U.S. bonds that they bought with depositor money fell significantly, triggering a two-month move to gold and silver, which drove prices up by 9% and 20%, respectively, before the Federal Reserve intervened with their bank term funding program, which was essentially a small bank bailout for those of you who remember it, setting the stage for gold's massive breakout only one year later in 2024. So as things stand today, despite overall weakness in the market, we're clearly seeing the early signs of a safe haven rally for gold and silver, much like we saw between 2009 and 2011 following the 2008 global financial crisis crash, which I circled in this area on the graph last week to reassure everyone that what we're seeing right now is nothing like 1980 or 2011, and to say that the best is still yet to come for gold and silver and we'll take a look at what that may look like in a moment, but with that said, we can't ignore some of the headwinds that precious metals face over the short term, all of which stem from rising oil prices as concerns about how it will impact inflation now has the market giving a greater chance of seeing interest rate hikes in 2026 than interest rate cuts. Now, although some content creators are making a big deal about this, the truth is that interest rates today, as determined by the market for the two year and 10 year U.S. government bonds, which are really the most important rates that the market looks at, are already at levels that are equal to or higher than what the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise its target rate to over the short term, despite the Fed's stated desire to move rates slightly down over the next year, according to their dot plot chart, which means we're already living in that market reality of higher rates today with or without the Federal Reserve's blessing. That said, the reason I call this noise is because gold and silver performance, as I've been telling you all for the last year, is driven by real interest rates, which I measure by using the one year interest rate minus the U.S. CPI and with the CPI, which is heavily manipulated by the government, having the very real possibility of rising from two point four percent to three point four percent, which is a 100 basis point increase over the next few months as a result of higher oil prices. It means that if the market is expecting a 25 basis point interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve, real interest rates are still going down as inflation is rising faster than the rate of interest. And this is precisely what we saw in 1974 when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 13 percent and real interest rates due to the high rate of inflation in higher oil prices, which, by the way, oil increased 159 percent in 1974. Real interest rates remained negative at minus two point nine percent, driving both gold and silver up on the year by 66 percent and 33 percent respectively. And it's for this reason I am encouraging everyone to block out the noise and remain patient, because before we got those big gains for gold and silver in 1974, there was an initial pullback in 1973 that we're going to take a look at in a moment. But before we do that, to close the loop on decoupling and my recovery timeline, as things stand today, nothing has changed despite a very positive week for gold and silver. And the issues we're seeing in private credit, we still need to see gold get back above four thousand six hundred dollars an ounce and silver get back above seventy one dollars an ounce and hold those levels for a week before we can seriously talk about a recovery and decoupling from the falling stock market, which is why I still expect us to have to wait till between May and July to see gold make a full recovery until September or October for silver to make a full recovery. And until we see Q2 and Q3 earnings from the miners at the end of this year to assess the impact of oil to their profitability for the miners to finally recover, which if you think about it, in all of these instances really isn't that far away. Now, coming to this video's viewer question, it comes from a viewer who calls themselves Tesla Rules, and he or she said, I keep hearing about a bottom for gold at three thousand five hundred dollars an ounce and then a bull run to five to six thousand dollars. And although it's not really a question, I think it's a good topic to address for gold and silver, because after calling multiple tops in the price of gold, one particular content creator who I know watches my videos from time to time and called for gold to pull back to three thousand one hundred dollars an ounce right before it zoomed off to four thousand dollars is getting a lot of attention because the war with Iran and spiking oil prices has finally resulted in the charts cooperating with the pullback expectations we've been hearing about from this content creator since gold hit two thousand four hundred dollars an ounce. So jumping in, I want to be clear right from the start that I'm not trying to disrespect Gareth. The truth is, I think he does a great job and sometimes not all the time, but sometimes our technical analysis looks very similar and he is very good at what he does. But speaking from experience, waiting for a specific price level to be the bottom often ends in tears and disappointment, which is why I said on February 18th to scale in on the way down at these levels for silver and these levels for gold to make sure you don't walk away from this pullback with nothing. And I bring this up because for the last two years I've been hearing people tell me that they're going to buy gold at two thousand dollars again and silver below thirty dollars once the 2008 style crash comes. And it's happening right now, that 2008 style crash. But metals have run so far to the upside that people who sincerely wanted to own gold and silver simply missed out, proving they should have just bought those initial breakouts at two thousand two hundred dollars an ounce for gold and thirty five dollars an ounce for silver. Now, looking at how gold and silver recover from bull run pullbacks, starting with the that led into the strong recovery of 1974. The lesson we should take on the backdrop of a possible decoupling for gold and silver from the broader market, as I mentioned earlier on in the video, is that the recovery can be swift and it can be explosive as gold price moved up 107 percent after a 29 percent pullback in 1973 and silver price went up 173 percent after a modest 18 percent pullback with an even more explosive move up being seen in the fallout of the 2008 metals crash, with gold moving up 168 percent after a 34 percent pullback and silver moving up 467 percent after a 60 percent pullback from high to low, which is starting to look a lot like what we're experiencing right now, which means based on those models and assuming we are still very much in a metals bull market, which is my base case assumption for no other reason than metals never top at the same time that stocks do. That only happens after stocks enter a bear market, which we may be entering right now. The next move up for gold may range from anywhere between 107 percent to 168 percent versus the bottom, while silver's next move up again following these past cycles could be anywhere from 173 percent to 467 percent after a bottom is made. And using the prices that Gareth Soloway has been mentioning as his bottom targets, that means even in the worst case scenario, we should expect both metals to make new highs once the bull market resumes, with a strong case to be made for gold hitting $7,000 an ounce and silver possibly reaching $200 an ounce in the next phase of the bull market, which aligns very well with the secondary upside targets I shared with you all in a video back on September 7th of last year, which is still my base case scenario for gold and silver in the next phase of the bull market. That said, a case can be made for even higher prices if the recovery we saw this past week sticks and we see a migration out of paper assets into tangible assets like gold and silver with upside targets based on the average of the 1973 and 2008 scenarios being nearly $10,000 an ounce for gold and more than $250 an ounce for silver, which for the people who say I'm too conservative with my targets here on the channel, these targets should be serious food for thought on where we may realistically experience an interim top before we see a longer-term pullback followed by a couple years of consolidation. Which is precisely why I'm not very concerned about what's happening over the short term because as far as I see things today, if the war with Iran finishes quickly and everything goes back to the way it was and rate cuts get priced back in, gold and silver go up. It's as simple as that. And if things get worse and inflation takes off and real interest rates crash along with the stock market and the global economy taking the credit market and potentially banks down with it, then gold and silver benefit in that environment too, especially once the money printers turn on to save the day. So with all things considered, I don't see a better place to be than gold and silver right now unless of course you want to lock in guaranteed losses by holding fiat currency or government debt. The choice is yours to make. Now as we finish I promised a bonus message at the end of this video for all of you who may want to meet me, speak with me live in person, maybe have a coffee with me. So if that's you, I will be appearing at Metalverse 5.0 on April 18th in Warsaw, Poland at the Westgate Conference Center and I will be giving a live talk there and you'll have the chance to meet me after. Now I'm not an organizer of this event and I'm not being paid to do this, but I was able to get a discount for my audience. It's 15% off the already affordable ticket when you use code BaldGuyMoney. It's all written together. So I hope to see many of you there again on April 18th in Warsaw, Poland at the Westgate Conference Center. That's Metalverse 5.0. I'll leave the link to the website in the video description below for you all to check out should you want to come and meet me. So with that said, that's it for this video. Please remember to make some noise for the algorithm by leaving a like. That helps YouTube know that this is important content and information that needs to be recommended to more people. And of course if you have anybody, friends or family that you think may need to hear this message, please don't be shy. Share this with them as it helps my channel grow. And I'll sign off by saying what I say every week. Please remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other. I'll see you all in next week's video. Goodbye.