JPMorgan's Shocking Warning

I wasn't going to make this video because I'm on a flight, as you can obviously tell, but I was doing some light reading, as you do, J.P. Morgan's market intelligence report. It pisses me off again and again that this stuff is not reported the way that it should be. Because you, a retail investor, like what I am now, we don't get the same data, right? J.P. Morgan writes this note, sends it to the institutional clients with lots and lots of money, and literally tells them what to do now that there is a ceasefire in the Middle East, and also what to do if the ceasefire doesn't hold. It literally includes the exact sectors, even stocks, and I think you deserve to understand it too. And if you agree with me on that, you'll put up with the terrible audio, the crappy video footage, and you're here for the information and the education. And let me know if you agree with that, that you deserve it. Put a deserve in the comments down below, and I'll do one better for you, actually. I'll put the actual full report into our free community, because let's just spread this bloody stuff, right? Just don't tell anybody that we do that. But yeah, it's down there. There's a link down below in the description for you to see that. So I've made a couple of notes just. I'm going to run you through them so you really understand what the heck's going on here, including, as I say, literally what JPMorgan is telling the big money to buy and not to buy in both scenarios. When or ceasefire falls apart. We're seeing a bit of both right now. So let me hit you with some data. First of all, they're targeting and they're predicting an S&P 500 that hits 7,200, which would be glorious, right? So they're saying rally is back, baby. But the key sector that they're liking here, and I think this is so important to understand because so many of you, I'm sure, are tech investors, right? If you're a tech investor, put tech in the comments. Love to see how many people you are. And they're saying tech is likely to have a huge rally for two simple reasons. Reason number one is that we are going into earnings season and we expect the earnings to be pretty good. And reason number two is that tech's been getting clobbered to death, like I was going to say baby seals, but that would be very un-PC. But you get the image during this war, right? And people had questions about AI, is it going to work, all that kind of stuff, right? And therefore, their share prices dropped pretty significantly. I set up a fairly contrarian Google position during that time, which seems to be coming out of the woods right now. So we're basically having a combination of everybody hates the sector, but it's tech, it's AI, like use it. I mean, seriously, if you're not using AI right now, you're missing out. It's just like you're not understanding how powerful this is going to be. So it's literally a love letter to the Mach 7, right? So the magnificent seven stocks. And we can look at some specific stocks in just a second. We'll do that together. But they're basically saying they expect fantastic earnings, better than they expected. And at the same time, all the institutions are very bearish on these big tech stocks because that's what we've been told for the last couple of weeks and months. And therefore, there is a catch up for those guys to do. And that brings me to point number two here, which is hedge fund leverage. I know that sounds about as boring as watching paint dry, but the way a hedge fund operates is that they will borrow money to trade with. They have some of their own money. They borrow some money on top, like a leverage trader, basically. Yes, some garlic bread, please. Thank you. Thank you very much. Absolutely. Thank you. That was obviously an important interruption. You can't say no to garlic bread. Actually, I'll give you a secret on airplane food as well and why everybody should be carrying a little sachet with some white powder on it when they fly. Explanation on that coming up, too. So yeah, but seriously, a hedge fund will, say, have a billion dollars. They have more, but let's say there's a billion dollars. And then they'll borrow. Sometimes they borrow $100 million, like maybe you and me might. I mean, as a percentage of funds, not saying we're borrowing $100 million. But actually, a lot of the time they borrow $25 billion if they have $1 billion, or $40 billion if they have $1 billion. They really go to town on the leverage. So it's a huge, huge part of what they do. And therefore, it has a big impact on the market. And those guys dropped their leverage down very significantly from the last 12 months high. And that means if the market picks up the way we're now expecting, if this ceasefire thing holds, and the Strait of Hormuz is named the Strait of Trump the Almighty, which I think is one of the key requirements in the treaty, these hedge funds will buy a ---- ton of stocks, specifically tech stocks, right? Now, there's an if in there, right? So you've got to take that into account. I'm not a financial advisor. I'm just a guy on a plane who used to be a banker and wants to share this with you. But if you actually really want to understand and you're here for like, literally, what do I buy? Don't just follow even the stuff JP Morgan's putting out because it's gonna get a date. I will do one better for you. I will teach you literally this Saturday at 9am Eastern time. That's 9am New York time, 2pm London. I will teach you Wall Street's very own rules. They have a three-step process. Simple rules have been around for 50 years. Every Wall Street trader gets taught them. But you obviously don't. So I'm going to teach them to you. yourself a free seat down below. And let me know you've got a seat just by writing seats in the comment as well. And everybody else can see it too. Now, the third part, I think we're on number three. This is what happens when you haven't got structure to a video and you're doing it on a plane. Retail. That's you. You are apparently have been feeling a little bit like, you know, retail sentiment has been terrible. You lot have been selling stocks like seven out of eight days this month. So you've really been gone to town on the whole panic thing near the end of a panic thing. And what does that mean? It means there is, again, a chance that the retail crowd will start chasing the dip. And therefore, you're going to get more money pouring into the market. They also use a lot of leverage ETFs and so on, which, again, push off the market quite significantly. Putting all that aside, probably the most important statistic here. Before I give you the bullish and the bearish list and everything else is when the market is positioned like this, very, very bearish. Historically, the S&P 500 has delivered an 8.2% return over the next three months. So in this kind of positioning, the following three months were historically an 8.2% up over the next three months. It's JP Morgan data. It's not a promise. All of a sudden, that's definitely going to happen. But it's an interesting one, right? Now for you, if you're a lot living in the Gulag of the European Soviet Union, similar for you guys, European stocks, current positioning, pretty extreme. Are you looking at about 7.7% up over the next three months on average? Historic performance wasn't guaranteed. Future performance and all that kind of stuff. But maybe that's useful for you lot who are tuning in from the European Union, although this video might be prohibited because there are opinions in here which people may not like. All right, then. So it was a bit too serious for a joke. Wasn't that a bit serious? It's true, though, isn't it? A lot of the stuff I say probably is very non-PC. Let's look at the bullish list. JP Morgan's bullish list here. And then we look at some individual sectors and stocks here, right? So they're basically saying, we're looking back at the trades that worked very, very early in the year. The US dollar will sell off. Now what does that mean? What happens when the dollar sells off? What happens? Gold goes up. Silver goes up, typically, right? So how can we play those? Well, we could actually play those with miners. And I'll get back to that in a second. But first of all, you're looking at the stock order, the Russell. The small caps go up first. The NASDAQ goes up second. The S&P goes up third. That's the way JP Morgan sees it. And then we're looking at upside and the sort of discretionary guys, like home builders. And we've been in home builders for some months now, but also retailers, because you lot will feel more euphoric and you'll go and swipe the plastic or ping a phone, which doesn't have quite the same feeling about it. And also financials. They're excited about financials. Banks always report first. And if their earnings are good, and we expect them to be, and we think that the environment is that the macro mine is going to get better, like lower interest rates, lower oil prices, all that kind of stuff, then we could get a very nice bounce there. Because again, everyone's been selling financials. Everyone's been hating the banks. And there's a fairly good reason to hate them, but not in the scenario of, you know, I want to make money out of it. So precious metals, they're saying here, would likely see a strong rebound as the US dollar pulls back. Miners more generally may see a bid on the recent changes to the metals tariffs. That's another big story there. So how do you then find those kind of stocks? Well, let me show you. One second. Okay. So the Wi-Fi just failed. I'll make a little recording of it. I'll put it on the screen here. You can go to TradeVision, which is the app that I'm a co-founder of, and we've been building the last couple of years. It's a cool AI feature that's just about to come out and being rolled out to you guys. And you could literally just type in, hey, make me a watch list of the top 10 largest gold miners or something, and it'll just ping them up for you. And it's a very, very cool, very, very fast way of doing that. You can then click through to all the charts to see what's going on there. And if you can't read a chart yet, and you don't know, does that mean it's a good stock? Is it a bad stock? Again, join me on Saturday. I'll teach you that. If you're a complete beginner, or if you're more advanced, we teach this to investment bankers, but also people who've never had a brokerage account in their life. Anybody can learn this in a couple of hours. Now, before you run off, very importantly, write down the bearish list, because this ceasefire could flip tomorrow, right? There are already missiles flying around, and this is not really like peace, peace yet. So let's write down what we need on the bearish list. They're saying, if the attacks continue, you know, Israel's bombing Beirut and so on, it would likely mean Saudi production will go offline, because the Houthis, which is a round sort of last card they haven't played yet, you know, the lunatics in Yemen, apparently you're not meant to call them lunatics, they don't like it. But, you know, let's call them the lunatics in Yemen. They closed the Red Sea. Now, the Red Sea is a little bit of water on the left side of the Arabian Peninsula that leads up into Europe, Israel, Egypt, you know, huge, huge, huge strait, again, where all the stuff flows through. So if that happens, oil will go back up. Look at $125, that's kind of what we're looking at, and then $150. This is JP Morgan saying it'd go up, because Saudi is the key thing, and there was an attack on the Saudi oil pipeline, for example, as well. And that means the dollar gets stronger, which means stocks sell off, gold and silver sell off, and if you want to buy stocks in that scenario, you just buy energy stocks. That's really the only place I would go. Maybe oil services companies, storage pipeline companies, those kind of guys still, but everything else is going to get, you know, clobbered like a, as I say, baby seal. Do you know where that phrase comes from? It's sort of a Wall Street phrase. You see it literally in banking reports. It's an incredibly offensive phrase, but I keep reading it in these banking reports. So I blame the lunatics on Wall Street and the hooties at the same sort of type of mindset, apparently. And then, of course, defense companies and fertilizers. So those are the ones that, again, if you want to find out what defense companies, what fertilizer stocks, just type it in the trade vision. It'll give you a list, and you'll know what you're looking at here. But you would very likely get that $1.5 trillion defense budget through. You'd probably get that $200 billion request for defense companies through. So basically, in that scenario, everything else goes down. Some things get particularly clobbered. There it is again, airlines, you know, where we are, because some of them will potentially go out of business, especially the smaller ones. Do you want to go aggressive on that kind of stuff? But I hope you're starting to see, and that's always my intention here, that no matter what the market does, no matter how bad it is and how bad it looks, there is always an opportunity. And usually, join me on Saturday, and I'll walk you through literally this week's opportunities and how we find them. And like last week, we had one. One sector looked good. And what was it? I think it was waste disposal or something really abstract. And that was having a good run. And so when people say, oh, market's going to have long periods that suck, but not if you know what you're looking for. Because the way to look at it is that the market is separated, say, into sectors, right? 12 sectors. And money will move from one to the other. So now money looks to be flowing back into tech and into higher-risk things and maybe into gold and gold miners. But if it goes the other way, then the money is going to flow into oil stocks, oil service companies, you know, it's going to flow out of airlines. So it's the money moving around. And once you really understand that, it changes the way you can take advantage of opportunities. Because it's not a black and white. It's not like what the mainstream media headlines tell you, oh, it's all terrible. No, there is always a fricking opportunity, especially when we get these big swings. So in a strange sense, I quite like these strange swings. Because for me, it's an opportunity. But I appreciate for a lot of people, it doesn't feel so good. And that's what we're looking to change here. So do the following. Download the actual report, Jamie Wong's report. It's a little bit more convoluted in terms of language. I tried to simplify it for you. But it might just be interesting to see. And sign up for Saturday. Join us there, phoenixfunds.org training. And if you want to dive into some of these stocks and use our cool AI features there in Trade Vision, there is a free trial to that too. There's also a, if you sign up now, you will get all the AI features as they're getting rolled out in the next week or so. You get those for free, basically. A part of your subscription. If you join us later, there will be a higher charge for those. So maybe take advantage of that. Just lock in the free trial. That's literally the one risk-free thing you can do right now. And I apologize for the terrible audio and everything else. And yes, I was going to tell you what this is, right? And why you must travel with this. Not what you think. No, no, no, don't do drugs, children. Airplane food. That here is always terrible. It is always terrible. It's typically made in front of a facility that hates people and wants to kill people. So don't eat it. Bring yourself some boiled, lovely, fresh, organic eggs. So I get these from Italy. And an egg doesn't taste any good unless you've got some salt with it, right? That's all that is. It also gives you some interesting questions to answer if anybody ever opens your bag. So I hope you got some value out of this. I hope to see you Saturday. And use the links down below. Get better informed. All the best. France just pulled every last ounce of its gold out of America. 129 tons. Gone like that. And the excuse they gave you is one of the most insulting things the central bank...