Hello everyone, I'm DaYu
One of China's most famous real estate developers, Pan Shiyi
Posted publicly on April 16
Define China's real estate industry as a Ponzi scheme
Fortunately, he has already transcended the physical barrier in his flesh.
To be honest, I wouldn't be invited for a chat by the CCP's lying party.
However, those in mainland China who attempt to virtually bypass the internet firewall are not so fortunate.
The Chinese Communist Party has been raising fish for nearly a year.
April 1st, concentrate on cutting off internet access at airports nationwide
Simultaneously impose penalties on individual users who circumvent the firewall.
Also targeted overseas film and television materials on cloud storage services
On one side are those outside the wall who dare speak the truth.
On one side, there is a crowd inside the wall who wish to see the truth.
They are actually all seeking the same thing.
It's the truth
What a pity.
This is precisely what the Chinese Communist Party most dislikes and avoids discussing at all costs.
SOHO China's publisher, Pan Shiyi, before April 16
I published a long article on my personal public account.
The title is "My Reflection"
He admitted something that every real estate professional already knows.
But what no one has ever dared to uncover is
China's Real Estate Over the Past 30 Years
That's exactly following the Ponzi scheme path.
This industry has now been declining for 47 consecutive months.
The losses have reached trillions.
Not long after the article was published
Phoenix Online and Sina Finance, among other mainland Chinese media outlets
All versions he reposted were completely deleted.
Such a guilty act of deletion is all the more ironic.
Pan Shiyi mentioned in the text
Thirty years ago
China does not have a genuine real estate market.
Housing is allocated by the workplace.
Welfare housing allocation
1998 was a turning point.
The state has abolished the system of distributing housing as a welfare benefit.
Replace the current commercial housing system
But when the market first started, it was very quiet.
The developer and the local government don't know what to do.
So how did it end up in the end?
Study in Hong Kong
Pan Shiyi recalls in the article
Back then, a group of real estate developers
Called by the government to discuss countermeasures
They're all saying things based on half-knowledge.
So every time I go to Hong Kong, I study hard.
Collect mortgage documents for the property
Shoot the sample room
Photograph the model
Learning sales methods
Speak the jargon
Which property development's launch is this mortgage-related term referring to?
That's what I learned from Hong Kong back then.
Studying itself is not wrong.
The problem arose later
That high-leverage system used in Hong Kong
The high-turnover model was brought back as well.
It quickly loses its original flavor and becomes distorted once it gets to the domestic scene.
To stimulate home buying
That bank has launched mortgage loans.
Initially, a 50% down payment meant the risk was still relatively controllable.
But the market response was far lower than expected.
The down payment keeps getting lower and lower.
40%, 30%, 20%
Even developers and banks
Jointly launched a 5% down payment
What it means is the money you borrowed.
19 times their own capital
Then there are still people proposing zero down payment.
That Pan Shiyi mentioned in the text
He once appeared on CCTV's "Dialogue" program.
Publicly oppose zero down payment
Saying the lever is infinite
Gambling with other people's money entirely
The risk has no bottom.
As a result, when this statement was broadcast
All of it was completely剪掉.
Then why cut it off?
It's very simple.
Local governments need to grow.
The bank wants to extend a loan.
That company wants to sell the property.
Nobody wants to hear bad news.
Leverage is stacked layer upon layer like this.
At the same time
A trend has become popular in the industry
Concepts introduced from abroad
Land Bank
The more land reserves one holds, the better.
The larger the scale, the more...
The more of them there are, the easier it is to go public.
Issuing shares and bonds
The investment bank analyst wrote a report praising it.
Developers are疯狂 grabbing land
A real estate company will soon emerge
Land reserve has exceeded 100 million square meters.
This恰好 also suits the local government's taste.
Land finance
Land sale revenues are a major source of income for many places.
Multiple forces exerting concerted efforts in the same direction
The direction of industry competition has completely changed.
Who built the house well?
Who ended up acquiring more land?
Faster financing
Even more aggressive expansion
In such an atmosphere, one can only say nice things.
Who raised the objection?
It's just alternative.
A black sheep of the family
That was precisely because Pan Shiyi was so bold in his speech back then.
Those people squeezed out of the mainland real estate industry
Then Pan Shiyi pointed out
After all these years
Experts and the government have focused on
Always blaming the rapid increase in housing prices
But the real issue isn't housing prices
The very operating model of the entire industry is wrong.
He broke this pattern down into four stages.
Developers survive on pre-sale proceeds.
Use today's house-selling money to cover yesterday's deficit
Companies rely on borrowing new to repay old for cash flow.
Local governments live off land sales.
Subjectively, this tends to drive up land prices.
Homebuyers believe that housing prices will always rise.
Buying a house is not for living in
It's for reselling to make a profit.
These four items are bundled together.
Any single link broken
The rest all collapsed.
That which supports its operation
Not sound management and genuine cash flow
but the next round of financing
The next buyer
Next round of price increase
Speak in simple, everyday language
This is called "Pass the Flower by Drumbeat."
Using professional terminology
This is a Ponzi scheme.
Pan Shiyi personally witnessed a sales scene
He saw everyone first paying 50,000 yuan to get a room number.
The apartment numbers themselves soon began to be resold at inflated prices.
The people in line were not there to stay.
but rather assumes that someone will take over at a higher price
Pan Shiyi said
Four words flashed through his mind at that moment.
Ponzi scheme
He wrote:
Those people who stood in line back then
Not all of them are speculators.
Many people were simply caught up in it
Inside the chain that seems destined to keep rising forever
In that chain
Everyone thinks they can leave before the drumming stops.
But in the end, only those who can truly leave
Eternity is merely for the few.
What happens next?
I will continue to introduce Pan Shiyi's viewpoints.
Including the bottom line of the real estate industry he mentioned
And the mainland's internet circumvention practices
Current difficulties
The content is even more exciting.
Now?
Let's first share a workplace injury case.
Be back soon
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Then continue speaking
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China
Data released on April 16
Q1 2026
National Real Estate Development Investment
177.2 billion yuan
A 11.2% decrease compared to the same period last year
The decline is greater than that from January to February.
Increase by 0.1 percentage point
Sales revenue of newly built commercial properties
A 16.7% decrease compared to the same period last year
The real estate developers' funding chain is even worse
Personal Mortgage Loan
A 34.6% decrease compared to the same period last year
Down payment and advance payment decreased by 20.1%
Domestic loans decreased by 23.7%
Second-hand residential property prices in first-, second-, and third-tier cities
Year-on-year decreases of 7.4% respectively
6.2% and 6.4%
The entire industry has been declining for 47 consecutive months.
Pan Shiyi speaks frankly
Have come this far
It's not just the fault of a few developers.
It is a system.
finance
Local finance
Corporate expansion
Societal expectations
The result of their combined effect
He doesn't think it's scary for a business to fail.
Uphold the bottom line of integrity
The worst-case scenario is the company's bankruptcy.
The losses are primarily borne by oneself.
What is truly fatal, however, is
When an industry gradually departs from integrity
Build a business model based on continuous leverage
On the constant pursuit of finding someone to take over
And also intentionally create hallucinations
Draw more and more people into it
Back then
The damage would not be limited to just one company.
rather, the financial system
Local finances and countless ordinary families
Integrity is the bottom line.
We have held onto this bottom line.
Even if one makes a mistake
There is still room for correction.
Lost this底线
No matter how big the industry
Even higher growth
They might all collapse overnight.
The prescription he provided consists of three items.
The outstanding issues must be addressed as soon as possible.
The longer it is delayed
The harder it is to recover
During the processing
Homebuyers must be prioritized first.
The fundamental solution is to recover integrity.
The response triggered by this article is very complicated.
Because the person saying it is Pan Shiyi
Since 2014
He began systematically selling off
SOHO China's core assets in mainland China
Cumulative cashing out exceeds 30 billion yuan
September 2022
He resigned from all positions at SOHO China.
Lives in the United States with his wife, Zhang Xin
Recent reports also indicate
Pan Shiyi and his wife
Back in the U.S., starting up as a developer again
Adopt a strong cash flow model
There is also a behind-the-scenes scale exceeding $5 billion.
Cross-border Family Capital Group
Some people don't believe it.
Why didn't you do it earlier?
Now running to the U.S. to reflect
Families trapped by unfinished buildings
Who will give them an explanation?
There is logic to this kind of skepticism.
But I still feel I need to make one thing clear
This article by Pan Shiyi
The underlying logic of China's real estate
Writing this so openly for the first time
Regardless of his motives
There is value in saying these words aloud.
How much more so then
The version of this article published on mainland China media
They have all been completely deleted already.
Multiple media outlets, including Epoch Times, have verified
The article is on Phoenix Online
Mainland Chinese media such as Sina Finance have reprinted
Related versions
They have all been completely deleted.
That means
China's real estate market is a Ponzi scheme.
These few characters
In today's Mainland China
Has become a sensitive term
In summary
According to X netizen writer Choi Seung-ho
A shared post
Pan Shiyi mainly discussed four things.
First
The essence of China's real estate collapse is not housing prices
But the pattern gets out of control
Second
Developers survive on pre-sales and financing.
Then the banks keep extending loans and increasing leverage.
Local governments rely on land sales
Homebuyers bet on rising housing prices
Any link broken
The system will crash.
The third
The industry's essence once came close to a Ponzi scheme.
Actually, essentially it is
Fourth
The fundamental issue is the loss of integrity.
This article discusses everything in a very profound manner.
The CCP fears large-scale deletion across the entire internet.
And if you now want to bypass the firewall by means of...
Take a look at the original article in overseas media.
For some friends of the Chinese Communist Party
This road is now facing challenges never seen before.
5:00 PM on March 8
Liangzi Lake District, Ezhou City, Hubei Province
A man surnamed Xu
Using a Honor smartphone at home
Through the GreatWall-bypassing software Clash
Scroll TikTok for X
Like this
The result is Liangzi Lake District Public Security Bureau
Show up at his doorstep
They cite the so-called Chinese Communist Party
Regulations on the International Internet Management
Articles 6 and 14
To issue a warning
And a fine of 200 yuan
Order to cease online connectivity
On the same day
The situation in Xiaogan City, Hubei Province, is even more exaggerated.
Xinhua Police Station dispatched more than ten police officers.
Concentrated action
Rushed into Changzheng South Road in Xiaonan District
What is Qiankun New City?
Building 4
A real-name male individual was investigated.
The charge also used
VPN access to overseas networks
Fined 500 yuan
This incident has sparked a lot of discussion.
An ordinary person
Scrolling through short videos on my phone at home
Check out a tweet posted by a foreigner
Summon over ten police officers to come to the door
A fine of a few hundred dollars
This is not an isolated case.
Hubei online activist Zhang Cheng
Tell the reporters from Radio Free Asia
Now many people have installed so-called
Anti-fraud software
Then these people go through the wall again.
The public security system will display it.
I'll just have you come to the police station for investigation.
That is an inevitable outcome.
For example, the software provided by the Chinese Communist Party to you
Giving you under different names
But it has a backdoor.
It is watching you.
There is one more detail worth noting.
March 2026
China National Intellectual Property Administration
A technical patent has been disclosed.
Fujian Zixun Information Technology Co., Ltd.
Apply in October 2025
The content is about identifying computers.
Is the VPN enabled?
It has already entered
Substantive Review Phase
Mr. Zheng, a software engineer from Shenzhen, analyzes
Such technologies typically through
Virtual NIC in identification device
To determine whether a VPN has been used
Once deployed on enterprise or public terminals
Such behaviors might then be identified.
The issue is some development environments themselves
It will also generate a virtual network interface card.
If judged according to the same rule
Normal use might also be treated as an exception.
So for the average user,
It's a triple encirclement now.
The phone has anti-fraud software monitoring behavior.
Has new patent technology identifying VPN
There might be police waiting outside the front door at any moment.
Fines imposed on individuals are just one aspect.
Larger actions take place on the server side.
First, let's clarify a term
The airport referred to in mainland China is not a real airport.
a VPN service provider
Most airports adopt the transfer model.
The user first connects to the domestic data center's relay server.
Then forwarded by the intermediate server to the overseas node
The advantage of this architecture is its high speed.
Low latency
The downside is that the transfer service counter is a real machine.
Located within China's territory
Subject to the jurisdiction of the Chinese Communist Party's laws
And then, law enforcement methods
Starting May 2025
Law enforcement officers proactively purchase airport subscriptions.
List of node IPs
Through the ISP notification mechanism
Tracing back to the behind-the-scenes data center
This process lasted nearly a year.
Equivalent to raising fish
Go to record which data centers are responsible for the relevant tasks.
April 1, 2026
Unify and close the net
IDC data centers in multiple provinces including Guangdong, Shanghai, and Beijing
Receive instructions simultaneously
Unauthorized cross-border servers
Perform physical disconnection
Not banning IP
Not speed-limited
Just unplug the network cable
Disconnect the power source
Even the entire machine is taken off the shelf
Some transit nodes in Hong Kong
Also affected
How bad was the outcome?
Airports relying on domestic transit
Node 100% failed
Not a downgrade
It has completely vanished
The servers are all offline.
Recovery is out of the question.
What's even more fatal is
The once-considered safe haven by the industry
Enterprise-grade dedicated line
Also falling into ruin
According to internal industry notifications
Granularity of regulatory oversight
Has already delved deeply into traffic feature analysis
Once the dedicated line entrance is identified
Characteristics of Cross-Border Agreements
The operator will directly cut off the entire line.
That notification letter from Jiangsu side
Has already been sent to the corporate client
Effective April 1, 2026
Carry out a special rectification campaign targeting illegal cross-border access
Immediately shut down the IP address that has been reported.
No deadline for rectification set
Industry analysis of the past
The era when changing IP addresses equaled rebirth is over.
The airport's main challenge at present is
True Resource Crisis
Once, high-speed nodes were just a few dollars a month.
Will become history
So how do you get around the firewall now?
Help the people on the mainland break through the information blockade to understand the truth
It is truly an urgent priority.
Some anti-communist technical experts from overseas
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You are inside China
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I also consulted with overseas technicians.
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Chinese people still benefit from circumventing the firewall.
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Many mainland friends have also benefited.
The more people who know the truth
The more it promotes change in China
But maintain this project
Continual need for financial support
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