Seattle Condo Prices Are Down 13 What Buyers and Sellers Must Know

Oh condos! The number that surprised me most in this month's data, and I look at a lot of numbers, is this one. In Seattle, the median condo price is down 13 percent from a year ago. In Kirkland, our beautiful east side market, it's down almost 17 percent. In the same month, single-family homes in those same cities are essentially flat or slightly down. So the single-family housing market and the condo market are completely different, even though they're operating in the same neighborhoods and at the same time. So if you own a condo and you're thinking about selling, you need to understand exactly what's happening right now. And if you're a buyer who's been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a window to get your foot in the door, maybe buying your first condo or downsizing and getting into a condo, it's a really great opportunity for a little bit of arbitrage. This condo data may be some of the most interesting things that I've seen all year. And of course, I'm Emily Cressy, your local hometown realtor at Keller Williams Greater Seattle. My website is HomeProAssociates.com and I cover King and Snohomish counties. Every month I am pulling in all of the data from the Northwest MLS to kind of analyze it and see exactly what's happening on the ground right here, because that affects your decisions of when and how to buy and sell. I have a condo under contract right now. I have a condo listed right now. And I did a lot of condo deals last year and I've been watching this segment of the market very closely because it's telling a different story than what's going on with single-family homes right now. And most people do not realize how big that gap has become. Numbers on the chart are kind of one thing, but watching a buyer negotiate $20,000 off and get their closing costs covered, that's also kind of a different story. So if any of this connects to your situation, I would be more than happy to open my calendar for you, do a free discovery call, which is just a chit chat. I don't have an agenda. It's just there to answer your questions and it's free. So use the link in the description and I'd be happy to walk through exactly what's happening and exactly your neck of the woods with your type of property. Let's start with prices, because the year-over-year changes here are significant. Seattle Condominium's median sales price of $490,000 is down 13% from a year ago. Kirkland Condos, median sales price $487,000, down 16.5%. Edmonds Condos, $535,000, a nice area, only down 2.5%. And then there's Bellevue, median price $781,000, and they're actually up 2.5% from a year ago. So Bellevue is the exception in the condo market right now, and we will come back to why in a moment. King County overall, the March Northwest MLS report shows the median condo price at $550,000, which is down about 6% from last March. And most of our data is from April, but that's still another indication of softening. Let's compare this to single-family homes. In King County, residential median prices in March were right around $1 million, essentially flat. In the city of Seattle, residential single-family median was down 4.5% to $855,000, though the condo market is declining at two to three times the rate of the single-family market. These are not the same market. And remember all of this with a grain of salt, because we do have some ADU data and other types of homes mixed in here with the MLS. We're trying to get them to separate out as much as we can, like a backyard cottage versus an apartment-style condo versus a townhouse versus a condominiumized house that's freestanding but just close together. So there is a lot of different variety in the mix. So we'll just talk about these general trends, but remember that with this whole move toward urban density, we're seeing an introduction of a lot more home types into the condominium category. Let's take a look at the supply of condominiums for sale right now. In Seattle, six months of supply. Kirkland, five and a half months of supply. Bellevue, also five and a half months of supply. And for reference, anything above six months of supply is generally considered a buyer's market. So we're balanced, but we're right of the edge of being in a buyer's market with the condominiums in this area. And the case of single-family homes, we're a lot more toward the lower end of the balanced market. Condominiums are showing a lot of new inventory in Seattle over the last year and a half. Kane County condo inventory is up 22.5% from a year ago. Snohomish County condo inventory is up 57.5% from a year ago. This means buyers definitely have choices and they are using them. Now let's look at the days on market chart, because this is where we start to see some really interesting trends. Bellevue condos have a median 13 days on market, which is not bad at all. Two weeks, you're going to find a buyer for your home, but that's still up from last year. In Kirkland, these condos are selling in 18 days. We're more like three weeks, two and a half, three weeks, which is also up. And Seattle condos are selling in 25 days. In Edmonds, condos are selling in 10 days. Edmonds is the bright spot in the condo market right now with tight supply, two and a half month supply. And the direction of that data definitely matters, because in general, condos are sitting longer than they were a year ago, almost everywhere. And when a home sits for longer, buyers notice and they start to beat you over the head when they come to negotiate. So let's look at the median percent of original price. How much are these homes selling for? And this is where condo sellers need to pay close attention. In Bellevue, condos are selling at 96% of asking price. In Seattle, 98% of asking price. Kirkland, 98% of asking price. These numbers have been at or above 100% for most of the last couple of years. So the fact that they are now getting less than full price, even though they're selling quickly, means that buyers are still having success in negotiating. Sellers are coming down on their price. And this is a new dynamic in this market. It's happening specifically in condominiums. And Edmonds is doing great. They are still holding at 100% of the price on median here. And they're the outlier. They have a low supply. They're close to the water. They have a very strong market and fast sales there. So the Edmonds condo market is behaving like a different planet compared to Seattle and Kirkland condos right now. Let's look at the pending sales chart. Pending condo sales are actually up in several markets. Seattle condos have pending sales up 18%, Kirkland up 31%, and Bellevue up almost 17%. So that's great. Buyers are engaging. They're out there shopping. It's not like buyers have disappeared. There's more buyers than ever. They're just being more selective. They're negotiating harder when they find something that they like. And the volume of buyers is there. The sales are happening. So the question is whether sellers are pricing to meet the buyer market. I want to share two situations from my own business that are happening right now because they illustrate exactly what this data looks like on the ground. The first one is I have a condo listing in Edmonds that has been on the market for 55 days. And I can tell you from experience, the moment the buyers see that days on market number, the conversation changes. So now I'm getting calls from buyers asking what's wrong with it and how much below list price do you think I can get? That's the stigma of a long days on market situation. The property isn't bad, but once a home has been sitting for weeks, buyers assume they have leverage. And honestly, at that point they do. So if you're a condo seller and you're thinking about listing, pricing it right has to be the thing from day one. It's not optional. And the cost of starting too high is measured in weeks of market time and thousands of dollars lost on your negotiating position. The second story is for buyers. So I recently represented a buyer on a condominium in Capitol Hill and the asking price was $315,000. And we came in with an offer $20,000 under asking. And we also asked that the sellers cover 5% of the closing costs. The sellers countered and they made a $6,000 change. They wanted 3% toward closing costs off 5%, which my buyer accepted. And they got the condo for a huge discount, right? $24,000 off their price, almost 10% off. So a year ago, the offer would have been laughed out of the room, but today it's a deal. And that's what a shifting condo market looks like in real life. A few more numbers to complete the picture here. Showings per listing for condos are down across the board. Seattle condos, three showings per listing, down 3%. Kirkland, three showings per listing. Edmonds, four showings per listing. Fewer people are scheduling tours for each individual listing. Buyers are being selective about which homes they'll bother to see, but when they go see it, they like it and they make an offer. Closed condo sales in King County were down 14% in March, year over year. Seattle condos closed sales in April were down 11.5%. So volume is contracting. That's consistent with the market where prices are falling and buyers are taking their time. So what does this mean for you as a condo buyer? The window is open right now in a way that it has not been in several years. If you've been priced out of the single family market, or you just want the lifestyle that a condo provides, the data strongly supports buying in this segment right now. Prices are down 10 to 17% in key areas and sellers are accepting less than asking price. Closing cost help is on the table, which preserves your cash and months of supply is approaching a buyer's market. So you have real negotiating leverage for the first time in years. One action item here is to get pre-approved and be ready to move. The Capitol Hill story I told you about is repeatable right now, but it won't be there forever, right? The condo sellers, on the other hand, I want to be straight with you because that's what this channel is all about. The condo market has softened a lot. If you are planning to sell a condo in Seattle, Kirkland, or Bellevue, you need to price it correctly from day one and next year in January, the lenders are getting even tighter on their regulations for giving loans. So if you have any kind of low reserves and problems with your HOA management, that's going to be even harder for financing to handle. So get your HOA cleaned up and sell before then, while the money is still available. The Edmonds condo story is kind of a thing. Even in a stronger market, you have to be priced well. If you don't sell correctly, you could experience some problems. A well-priced condo in a good building can still sell quickly and close at or near asking, but the window for overpricing and hoping is closed. I want you to work with someone who will give you honest numbers and a real strategy, and that's what I'm here for. So whether you own a condominium and you're wondering what it's worth right now, or you're a buyer who's been watching the market and thinking about making a move, let's talk. The discovery call is free. I'm here to just answer whatever questions you have and help you walk away with clear, honest information about what your options look like right now specific to your situation. So grab a time on my calendar using the link in the description. If this video was useful, share it with a friend who owns a condo or is thinking about buying one in the greater Seattle area. Until then, I will see you on the next video.