Red Bull's Curse Has Dangerous New Suspect

I think we've seen this thing play out before, folks. I believe there is a new suspect. Because the Red Bull curse is still there, and Horner and Marco aren't there, so it must be to do with somebody else. And I think I know who. The car itself might be still doing the judging. Miami should have been the weekend where Red Bull exhaled out of sheer relief, because for the first three rounds of this season, the RB22s looked like a very expensive argument between physics and ambition. I mean, the power unit looked much more promising than expected. In fact, only a few brake horsepower or so behind the Mercedes powerplant. But on the chassis side, that's the place where both drivers, both Max and Isak, have been experiencing a hell of a lot of pain. And as a result, we saw Verstappen regularly outside the top seven in qualifying, and Isak Hadjar surprisingly close to the guy. And in some cases, you might have argued that if the Red Bull seat curse is still there, it might have found itself passed over to Max this time. And yeah, we also saw that in comparison to Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes, Red Bull were very much looking likely to be left adrift. But then the Miami thing came along, which was an even bigger package, and I think saved their bacon. Had the RB22 not had five weeks of constant development underneath it, I think this season would have been an absolute write-off for Max. He might have had a podium Miami, if he hadn't spun out. Let's not ignore that that happened. And yes, that swing isn't akin to the levels that we saw with the MCL60 a few years ago, but it's still a very notable one and brings Red Bull back into play. So hey, I think Formula 1 would like to see four different teams eyeing out pole position, or maybe victories, certainly much more competitive and much more enticing than it just being between the two Mercedes drivers. Come on, you gotta give me that. Not to mention using language that really looked like he was going to be around Formula 1 in 2027. A lot of, let's see what happens next year. Which, for Red Bull, would have been music to their ears. So for now, I think the threat of Verstappen retiring for Formula 1 has backed off. And you would think that sounds like a happy ending to the first act of 2026. Well, you've only got to look onto the other side of the garage, because the moment Red Bull made their car more enticing to Max, it went the completely opposite direction for the other guy. Again. Because Hajar was thrown into a weekend that ultimately leads to that particular driver experiencing the, uh, the you-know-what. Duh, Lore, why are you making a video about this? This happens every single time and has done so for the last several years. What's new this time? Well, Christian and Helmut aren't in the room. But that's something really important here. And one thing I really hope doesn't happen is that the media latches onto this and calls for Hajar's head. Because this time, it is different. Because the first three rounds of 2026 saw a teammate of Verstappen's that looked much more composed than previous examples. Say, like, uh, Tsunoda or Lawson. Someone young enough and different enough and stubborn enough to avoid being defined by said curse. But then Red Bull found performance, which meant Max stepped forward and Hajar got swallowed up by the machinery around him. So what was the upgrade package, Lore? Well, thankfully, these days, the teams have to show and tell what they had brought to each Grand Prix if they had brought upgrades. They listed a new front wing, brake ducts, floors, side pods, engine cover, diffuser and that even louder Macarena wing than the Ferrari offering. But the part that really mattered here was the steering rack modification, added to give Verstappen a better feeling of control in the car. And to be fair, Max is their benchmark. He's probably the best benchmark around at the moment. He's their shortest route back to podiums and wins as well. But that's also the trap. This patch was about making the car speak Max's language again. And in the eyes of technical director Pierre Vache, and all the second driver can do is act like some kind of control sample and hopefully be able to adapt to what Verstappen can cope with. And if not, uh, well, um, good luck with that. But nevertheless, it worked. Verstappen, throughout the entire weekend, saw that the understeer problems that he had with the car had mostly been resolved. And despite the regulations still not being his cup of tea and him describing the tweaks for Miami as nothing more than a little tickle, he did have far less things to complain about. And the car was very much more to his liking. And that he could actually work with it. And another helpful thing for Red Bull is that he can live with things that would make other elite drivers feel that little bit nervous. And so long as he has got a very loose rear end and a front end that will actually work with him, he can make that car dance in particular ways. Since Verstappen has been around for a decade at this point, that's really the only thing the Red Bull technical team knows about. And without Adrian Newey there to be able to offer some kind of guidance, this is only going to become more apparent with Pierre Vaché now fully in control and the direction of this car being his alone. And if you give it to someone who's still learning how the senior team operates in terms of politics and general car development, then really you're only going to get some kind of stress test rather than a proper pathway to points. And I know that some of you might be thinking, well, what's stopping Red Bull just going two different ways in terms of development? Well, I mean, they did try with Tsunoda last year. And when it became really obvious that Max could have gone for his fifth world title after Zandvoort, well, that completely fell apart, didn't it? It was all aboard the Max Express, whereas Yuki, he was basically left for dust. And then operationally, I mean, my goodness. If this team wants to remain on the coattails of the other three front running teams, they need to follow what Max is able to do to try and figure it at all in this new regulation cycle. And what really didn't help in Miami is that the Frenchman's weekend was already going from bad to worse because in Q3, he qualified ninth, which wasn't too bad. Having both cars in Q3, that's not to be sniffed at. But then the stewards found his floor protruded outside the permitted reference volume by two millimetres on both sides. So excluded from qualifying. And he had to start from the pit lane. So basically now, what could have been at least a few points ended up being a recovery drive. But for a few laps, there was hope. He did start on the hard tyre and began picking some cars off. But then he clipped the inside wall in the awkward chicane section, broke the steering and ended up in the opposite barrier. Now, I'm not asking you to pity Isaac. He admitted that that was his mistake alone. It had nothing to do with the car or the team. So to say that that crash broke his spirit, Isaac's would be unfair. Instead, I think it broke the illusion that the Red Bull second seat curse came from the very top, as in the team principal and the special adviser. Hajar said that he just threw it all away, that he hadn't been focused enough. The first time he'd really struggled with his overall pace and that, in his own words, was new. But what wasn't new was F1's own social media account milking Isaac's very open frustration for clicks and got lots of those likes. That's shameful, honestly. But Isaac saying that kind of struggle felt new, also reported by Sky Sports, that's the worrying bit for me. We saw some really good potential from Hajar. And had it not been for that engine failure in Australia, he might have been the one to be able to secure the majority of points for Red Bull. And then that first package comes along for Max and it's all undone for Hajar. A Hajarster. Max was able to go on to get onto the front row in Q3. Meanwhile, in sprint qualifying, for example, Hajar was around about a second slower than Max. And then in for Grand Prix qualifying, it wasn't that much smaller. So if I haven't made this clear already, I am not going to be saying that it's simply a case of Hajar bottling it. I think it's something nastier than that. And something that might be a little bit uncomfortable for Hajar and Red Bull fans. And that, yeah, okay. Pierre Vacher and his team are capable of producing a fast car without any sort of reference point from Adrian Newey. However, the only way they can actually get that sort of fast car is through Max's preferences only. And until Max decides to move on, that's the way it's always going to be. Because ever since Daniel Ricciardo left for Renault, every replacement of his has eventually been judged against the same impossible looking question. Can you live with the Stappen in a Red Bull designed around what the Stappen can feel? Reuters likened it to a poisoned chalice when Hajar was confirmed for this year. The Stappen's fourth teammate since the end of the 2024 season. And that, to me, is outrageous. It almost felt like we were back in the 1980s or the 1990s when driver churn was really, really common. The driver churn was more to do with the fact that the majority of teams were really, really broke. And they needed sponsorship money from any drivers that came with a particular brand. Which is why for many teams, you saw a lot, and I mean a lot of stickers. Red Bull's churn is different in that, yes, it has gone through a huge change in terms of the senior leadership, but it has ultimately been able to survive in some shape or form. Is it still the same rebellious party team that's willing to give things a go like it was under Horner? No, it's not. It's a far more corporate entity now, but it is still a team that is capable of running in the top four. But what we've seen right now is that maybe all of the stuff that we have seen regarding the curse means that it wasn't a purely political thing, but maybe a technical and a cultural one, even more ingrained than what Christian or Helmut could touch. And it's enduring within Vacher's side of the operation. Because last year, Liam Lawson described that year's car as tricky, that it had a very small setup window. This echoing what Sergio Perez's earlier comments were, that Red Bull's development had leaned towards Verstappen's driving style as the car became harder to handle and the stakes for the season got higher. Max was able to extract something absurd from it, and the second driver started to look lost. Then the second driver finds something else instead of lap time, that they're now the media's prey. Now, I'm not saying that any serious engineer worth their weight in salt is out there to deliberately ruin a second driver's existence. No, they just follow the driver who has the fastest abilities and gives the best feedback to be able to generate a fast car. That's how it is up and down the grid. And it's very prevalent in 2026, because, well, every single driver is chasing that ultimate status to get the most credibility amongst the engineers. That will give them that number one ticket for the rest of this regulation cycle, which means the next three or four years. So even though Hajar is closer than, say, Tsunoda or Lawson or Checo towards the end of his tenure with Red Bull, that may not count for Toffee. Verstappen would be the quickest, and at the beginning of a regulation cycle, Max will get preferential treatment. The other driver will just be asked to be able to adapt, and hopefully, as they develop and learn the team and learn the car, their style adapts with it and becomes something like Max's. And that really is the brutal logic of play here. It's not something I like to say, but it's true. But the more Vache's group bends the car back towards Max's comfort zone, the more the second seat becomes a test of survival rather than a normal racing seat. And as long as Red Bull depends on Max to locate the car's peak, that pattern's not going to disappear. That might explain why the piastri noise is so interesting and lives on even weeks after I made my video about it. He might give Red Bull a less extreme center of gravity whilst also still being fast. Anyway, you might be wondering, what do I think of the crash that Hajar had? It happened. He already owned it, so it's not really a bone of contention for me anymore. No, it's the qualifying gap that's getting stuck in my craw, because the disqualification was a team error. Meki's saying that Red Bull hadn't helped Hajar That there is important to be aware of, and this is where you have to be fair to him. Yes, that mistake early into the race was his, but he didn't shy away from it. But the weekend itself looked rough before the crash. So if Miami became a trial, it wasn't a trial Hajar entered on equal terms, and it reminds me of late last year when Red Bull kept dropping the ball with certain operational gaps which compromised Max a couple of times, but Yuki Tsunoda multiple times. I recall a period where it was just one thing after another for Tsunoda, and even though Meki's apologised time and time and time again, it didn't soften the reality that Yuki was ultimately doomed, that he was not going to be getting that seat for another year for the sake of continuity, and that ultimately Hajar got the call up and Limplad got his ticket into Formula One. And yes, Tsunoda did survive into becoming the team's reserve driver, but that sadly does not carry the same clout as being the Red Bull racing number two driver. And also Meki's apology ends up making me ask a bigger question. Why is it that every single time a driver like Hajar struggles, why does the media narrative always turn to the belief that that particular driver just can't cope? Because may I remind you, the car was compromised. The setup differences were compromised as well. The team dropped the ball with Isaac, which made his life even harder, and he still was able to qualify that car in the top 10. That is not terrible. Yet somehow the curse narrative just feeds itself anyway. It's something that is just a self-fulfilling prophecy, as in the media hopes that the curse has been lifted, and when they realize that it's not going to be lifted, they just go, okay, next! Even though Meki's Red Bull is trying to be really careful and offer really important context, it's almost like the court of public opinion doesn't give a flying hoot about it. Then came technical director Pierre Vaché. Verstappen had told Dutch media he felt a steering problem since the Barcelona shakedown, and what Vaché said, yeah, just take a listen to this. Ahem. I'm sorry that we didn't fix it before. We tried multiple stuff and it didn't work. Okay. Pierre had to publicly apologize right here because Verstappen had felt this from the first Barcelona shakedown back in January, and they've only now fixed it, and to get the parts to be able to get it onto the car. And it does make you wonder that, really? All the stuff that has happened in the world, which meant that we've had to postpone maybe Bahrain and Jeddah to allow teams this five-week break to improve, has obviously nobbled Mercedes a little bit and offered McLaren a lifeline to maybe getting wins in a world title challenge, but it also gave Red Bull hope that they could maybe hang on to Max for that little bit longer. It may not have worked out with GP, but if they could get Verstappen for at least the rest of his contract, then they'll take that. And if we had maintained those two races, that steering wrap problem would have still not been resolved. They might have found the cure, but they would have still needed to try and build those parts. We may not have seen that until maybe Canada or Monaco. And even then, for Monaco, you need a whole separate steering rack just to get around the Fairmont hairpin. So you may not have even seen that until after Monaco, well into June. So even though all of the other parts might have arrived in time for Miami, Max would have looked more uncomfortable than he did in this reality, and Hajar would have certainly been that little bit closer. But either way, Hajar ends up being compared to Max inside a team still admitting its lead driver spent the opening phase fighting a steering problem they hadn't been able to fix yet. A post-Newie technical department still trying to understand its own car. No original baselines to work with here, because this is the baseline. So Hajar's danger now is psychological as much as technical. Before Miami, he could tell himself this was a fresh era. And last year, when he was asked about all this, he said this year would be different. There wouldn't be the same talk of the second car thing. I'm not going to mock him for it, because that was a perfectly reasonable thing to consider. Because this was a brand new regulation cycle. Horner was gone. Marco was gone. The political top that was Mekis was changing into something a lot more benevolent and more forgiving. Somebody that Hajar had worked with at Racing Bulls, and Racing Bulls, you've got to admit, it's a much more friendly and forgiving environment than the senior team. About that. That culture is still there, and it's not going to go away anytime soon, now I'm realising it. And I think it's quite safe to say that Miami made that take of Hajar's look much more fragile than it was before. You might take a look at what Hajar said, and you might not give an absolute hoot about it. You might be saying, well, that's just F1. You build the best car around the fastest driver. Okay, that is fair to a point. The cost is a lot higher this year, because there are so many more new things to these cars, including energy management. Something that Verstappen has openly said he's struggled with. Everyone is learning every weekend. Also, Red Bull Ford's facing a steeper curve as a new power unit manufacturer. And yeah, the powertrain looks impressive for its first season, but it's still a different beast to the old Honda unit. So when the car, the power unit, the software, the driver tools all change, you need two reliable feedback streams. Red Bull may have the best driver in the world, but one genius can still become a bottleneck if you ask me. It all goes back to what I believe should have been the 2026 lineup for Red Bull, that it shouldn't have been Hajar getting the call up already. Instead, it should have been Tsunoda for at least the first few races to see whether or not he could hack it with a car that he was able to properly develop alongside Verstappen. If it did look like Tsunoda was not working out with this car, that he was just flailing again, continuing what he was doing at the end of 2025, then you could have brought Hajar in with a more developed car. Something that looked a little bit more, you know, tame. But unfortunately, that wasn't going to work out because Liam Lawson made his case too well. Limblad made his case too well in Formula 2. So there was simply no room for Tsunoda to be able to survive as just being a continuity point or a reference point or whatever point you want to make. So that hope for continuity disappears and it just makes the development pathway for this RB22 look incredibly distorted like every other year because the team might not be able to tell whether or not a car's problem is a fundamental one or just one that Max has but Isaac may not have. And given that the Miami upgrade slapped for Red Bull, they're only going to do the same thing again for the next one with Max and it's just going to continue on and you're going to get a vicious cycle right there. I think Red Bull may have created a car development version of natural selection and with Christian and Helmut no longer sitting at the centre of the story, the source looks clearer. It's the technical direction and its feedback loop that are the problems here. The driver who can tolerate their car wins out and said car evolves further around them. The other driver becomes an experiment. Now, I'm not going to say that Hajar is doomed because Meki said Red Bull believed Hajar could thrive alongside Max and produce the magic on track. Jenson Button also backed him to recover and pointed out that he bounced back from a disastrous rookie moment in Australia last year to then go on and clinch a podium in Zandvoort and ultimately come out ahead of Lawson on the first attempt. In short, the leadership of Red Bull is not worried at all and they believe that he can bounce back in Montreal, the next race. That is very important here because if we get the same thing happening in Canada, it doesn't really matter what the senior management of Red Bull say. They may like Isaac and they may believe that his job and seat are fine, but it may not contribute to the ultimate destiny of the lineup at all. It may be just, you know, lip service without him even trying to make it lip service. Bachet's team concludes that Hajar simply cannot live within the car's operating window. That's going to carry more weight into the 2027 lineup than whatever Meki has to say because, I mean, look what happened with Tsunoda. Lawren really, really likes Yuki, but even then, that was not enough to keep him alongside Max. It was only enough to make sure he remained within the Red Bull ecosystem. And you might be wondering what Verstappen has to do with all of this. Well, quite honestly, I think he has nothing to do with it whatsoever. He doesn't have to do anything, politically speaking, because as we know, Max hates politics. He's also got a lot of other things to do, including working with the powertrains department to make sure the engine is good, to work with Red Bull to make sure the car is good, and that the team is on an even keel when the time does come that he does leave because he will be leaving in the next couple of years. It would take a minor miracle for him to remain with the team through to 2029. And also, Max has never called out for his teammates' head or said that they're ridiculous or that they're slow or that they're no help whatsoever. He's got no beef with his teammate as long as they don't get in his way. And in some cases, he's actually sympathetic towards them. His lap times do the politics for him, whether he likes that or not. When he says the car feels better, the team believes the package works. When Hajar says he struggled, the engineering room naturally asks whether he can adapt or not. And that's the danger here, folks. In this team, adaptation has usually meant moving closer to Max, not moving the car closer to his teammates. So Canada really is the acid test. If he can score points there, Miami becomes less significant as a result. If not, the Red Bull second seat story will roar back with even sharper teeth. Would the team truly have solved the RB22 or are they only solved Max's RB22? A rescue mission built around one man yet again. So yes, I am certainly confident in saying that Miami was Red Bull's best weekend of the season. And if Max hadn't spun into turn one and lap one, it would have been even stronger. That could have easily been a podium finish. But it was also the same weekend that made their oldest problem visible again. And they couldn't point to Christian or Helmut or we couldn't point to them and say, you see, it's the toxic leadership that's the problem. No, I think it's a more inherent problem. Maybe a toxic technical team. Ever since Adrian Newey backed off development in 2014, we have started to see this problem come out time and time and time again. Because when you look back to the days of Vettel and Weber, they did trade blows time and time again. But Weber was able to endure and never got to the point where we were calling for Weber's head that he was simply too slow. No, Mark was able to remain for as long as he wanted to and bowed out on his own terms. Same went for Coulthard. But in the era where Vaché started to take more and more prominence and Newey backed away from day-to-day duties, we saw Gastly, Albon, Checo, Lawson, Sinoda and hopefully not Hadjar face that same particular threat. That all they can think of, Red Bull, is Max. Or at least Pierre can only think about Max. And what we just saw in Miami gave Isaac the first proper taste of what it's like to work within that team. We all thought it might have been Helmut putting too much pressure and his absolute chaotic words completely skewing the direction of those drivers. But you know what? It might not have been it. Nor Christian's general influence and his verbiage, no. Yeah, Isaac's discovering what overwhelmed his previous teammates. And what you could experience is this video right here, which I know you will enjoy. I'll see you over there.