Sam Altman on what comes next and how AI could unlock a future we’ve never seen before!
Sam, thank you so much for coming on The Next Big Thing! A privilege to spend time with you and I left feeling electric! Thank you so much to my incredible team who helped bring this video to life - I'm so grateful for you, you are world class and I can't wait to keep making things together! NBT Community you are the reason all of these extraordinary things happens, and the reason I'm so excited to make videos - thank you for being here!
0:00–1:23 "ChatGPT’s Personality Is the Most Important Thing We’ve Built" 1:23–2:55 AI Could Unlock a New Era of Entrepreneurship 2:55–4:54 Prediction Is Very Close to Intelligence 4:54–10:28 AI Can Rewire How You Think 10:28–12:43 If AI Creates Abundance… Do We Lose Struggle? 12:43–15:53 "50% of Jobs Will Disappear?" Sam’s Real Take 15:53–20:02 AI Is Starting to Discover New Science 20:02–22:24 The Future of Medicine 22:24–27:05 Do AI Doubters Bother You? 27:05–33:30 The 3 Breakthroughs That Will Define AI’s Future 33:30–34:39 Why Robots Are Essential (& The Nightmare Scenario) 34:39–39:13 AI Hardware: The Next Big Shift 39:13–40:16 What the World Could Look Like in 2050 40:16–41:16 Blind Ranking Game! 41:16–42:00 Is AI More Important Than Fire? 42:00–43:00 The Most Common Thought In Your Head
AI Generated·May contain errors
The thing we do that's had the most impact on the world
is how we set the chat to be T personality.
What's different with the new model?
Smarter, faster, more context.
What's like the most common thought in your head?
What are we aiming towards?
Like what's your vision here?
Almost unimaginable prosperity.
This is Sam Altman.
Three years ago, he catapulted us
into a race to invent super intelligence.
But he actually started working on this 20 years ago
when everyone thought creating AI was impossible.
And against all odds,
he and a team of scrappy engineers did it
and changed the world.
Now, over 900 million people use chat to be T every week.
In today's episode, I'm gonna ask Sam
questions he's never been asked before.
Okay, I'm probably gonna be really bad at this.
Let's try it.
And give us a rare look into his vision for the future.
So you gotta have robots.
So you can get ahead of it and build the next big thing.
That was so fun.
Thanks for coming on the show.
Thank you for having me.
Yeah, I'm so excited.
I've watched like all of your interviews
for over the last 20 years.
Oh no.
It's been cool,
because I think there's been a lot of things
that you've stayed very consistent on.
One of them is your like focus on builders.
And I think a lot of people don't know,
they see you as like the CEO of OpenAI now,
but they don't know that you were obsessed with AI
like 20 years ago.
Can you tell me about your initial venture into it
in college and what made you love artificial intelligence?
One, I think it is just from like a tech nerd perspective,
the coolest thing ever.
It's just such an interesting idea
that we could make computers think
and do stuff for us and help.
I have like loved this,
my understanding of the story
of technological progress in human history,
where we keep inventing tools on top of tools
on top of tools and build up this scaffolding
that lets us do more and more.
And that gets to the,
so I think it's just like a beautiful idea
and very cool technology.
But that gets to the second thing,
which is in terms of technology and scientific discovery
that can make the world better,
if we can put this tool in the hands of people,
and if people can use AI to build and explore
and create and make new companies and new kinds of art
and new kinds of experiences for each other
and whatever else they'll do with it,
that is how I believe the world gets better.
That's also how I believe people get fulfilled.
So before this, my career was in startups
and I used to watch people make startups
and I thought it was like awesome for the world,
awesome for the people doing it.
I now think we're going to be in a world
where you can have these one person startups
or three person startups, whatever.
And the amount of human potential that is going to unlock
and the amount of good stuff that's going to make
for all of us that was just totally impossible
without this technology,
I think will be quite great to see.
Which historical figure do you think
would have benefited the most from having AI?
Da Vinci was the first one that came to mind.
Some very broad thinker interested in a lot of things.
It's just huge creative energy
trying to get as much done as possible.
It's interesting too,
because I feel like when the transformer initially came out,
it's like a predictive text model.
It's crazy how far that one breakthrough
has gotten us in discovery.
Do you think about that?
I, all the time.
Ilya Sutskever once said a very simple sentence
that as many simple sentences said,
it really stuck in my mind,
which is prediction is very close to intelligence.
And the idea is that if you can compress
all of the information about the world,
the state of things, whatever,
into its smallest representation,
and then as part of that predict
the thing that's going to happen next,
you understand it in a sort of deep way.
And this idea, at the time,
a lot of people in the AI field
were quite excited about generative models
for a reason they couldn't quite articulate.
But I think the reason was something to do about this,
that prediction is very close to intelligence.
And if we're trying to build systems
that really understand all of the data they're trained on,
if we can get them to start predicting what comes next,
that seems like a great step.
And certainly when you watch children
begin to understand the world,
I think you can observe a similar phenomenon.
Yeah, I think about it a lot.
Watching AI get smarter makes me hopeful
because I'm like, all right,
if I just input all of that information into my brain,
I would get the same outcome.
Do you think that certain people
are just more destined to be great
at physics or science and math?
Or do you kind of believe that
if you just gave everyone the same information,
they would have the same output?
No, I don't think they wouldn't.
I'm happy they wouldn't.
I'm happy we get the rich tapestry of human experience
and that people have different interests and talents
and also different training data.
But I think it'd be quite sad
if we showed every person the exact same training data
and they had all the exact same ideas
and the exact same interests and anything else.
So I'm grateful that doesn't happen.
It brings me to an interesting thing
that you said in a previous interview,
which is that there's never been another time in history
where this many people have talked to one mind.
There are 900 million Chachaputi users every week.
Extraordinary.
How does that influence
how you shape the personality of Chachaputi?
We've gone through many different approaches to this.
It's so hard to get this right.
People want different personalities.
The same person wants different personalities
on different days.
People on different time horizons
might prefer a very different personality.
You might want a model,
if you're just thinking about how it makes you feel today,
you might want a model that tells you how great you are.
And if you're thinking about
what's gonna maximize your fulfillment
and accomplishment over a longer period of time,
you might want a model that pushes back on you way more.
That's a great point.
Almost no one wants to go set sliders
about here's how I want Chachaputi to behave.
I want it to be this funny
and I want it to be this nice to me
and push back on me this much.
And we don't do that for friends in our lives either.
But we do gravitate towards different people
or different people at different times
or want the people in our lives to support us
in different ways, in different environments,
in different days, in different contexts.
And we expect them to understand that.
And right now, Chachaputi doesn't work that way
and most people don't expect it to work that way.
But that is what I think we should shoot for.
I think it does kind of model a little bit though.
I feel like my Chachaputi is very energized and optimistic
in a way that when I use the account logged out, it's not.
It definitely does a little bit of this.
It definitely kind of gets to know you somewhat.
And this is what we've been going for.
We've been pushing towards this kind of memory
and understanding more and more.
But we used to not have that.
We used to have these sliders
and tell us what the personalities were, that kind of thing.
And then you had 4.0,
which was an interesting moment for you
because for people that don't know the context
is that it was very agreeable,
but in a good way in some ways.
And I remember in an interview,
you talked about how some people actually emailed you
saying like, this is the only supportive chat in my life.
I still think about those emails a lot.
Yeah, how do you navigate that?
Because I think what's really cool
is you have this opportunity to rewire someone's brain
for positivity and work ethic if you do it right.
But there's a lot of responsibility.
We, yeah, the responsibility on this point is huge.
This idea that there's,
we talk a lot about the risks with AI and the benefits
and we measure the big bio-risk or cybersecurity risk.
But probably the thing we do, at least historically,
has had the most impact on the world
is how we set the chat GPT personality.
How encouraging should it be?
How tough love should it be?
How much should it customize to you versus me
versus not do that?
How understandable should it be, what it's doing?
How much do you need to see those sliders after all?
And we have historically, not just us, the whole field,
not treated this with the same amount of rigor
and scientific focus and sort of risk understanding
that we have on things like let's not make a new pathogen.
But the impact this has had on the world is huge.
I think it's had tremendous positive impact.
Obviously with 4.0 it had some negative impact too.
I still have not heard anyone talk about this
in a way where I'm like, this is the answer.
This is how the world should think about the power
of the default personality
or the limits of personality in these models.
But it is clearly a huge issue and going to get bigger.
How are you thinking about it right now?
I have asked a small number of people
that I think are really wise in different ways.
People from great spiritual traditions,
like great clinical psychologists,
people who I just think really understand
how people interact with each other
and what motivates them and what fulfills them
to try to write different sort of instruction manuals
for chat GPT about here is how to behave
to maximize people's fulfillment and personal growth
and sort of accomplishment and enjoyment of life.
And I want to get those and I want to try
aligning chat GPT to the combination of those
and see what happens.
Would it have to change by culture too?
I think it largely will,
but there are some universal things about people
that seem more about biology than culture.
Like what?
There's this interesting book.
I'm going to get the title slightly wrong.
Maybe I won't.
I think it's called Human Universals.
Okay.
But it was some anthropologists
that went through every human culture they could find
and looked for, and they made a list of all the traits.
And then if something didn't exist in even one culture,
they took it out.
Because they said that's not really a universal.
That's like some sort of cultural thing.
And there were some things that weren't obvious to me
that would exist in every culture,
like value and travel, but still did.
And there were a lot of things that made sense to me
that would value in every culture.
I was talking earlier about how I'm very excited about AI
and what I think it can do for the world.
But increasingly, one of the concerns we're hearing
from people is, okay, let's say you're right.
Let's say you do give, with this technology,
you give everybody on Earth a ton of agency,
and people working with this technology
collectively make huge prosperity for the world.
People will still work because they want to work for fun,
but no one will have to,
and everybody will have this great life and whatever.
Increasingly, people are saying,
well, you talk about a right to prosperity,
but what about the struggle?
What about the need for adversity?
What about the need to overcome challenges and learn
and not have everything taken care of
and how important that is?
And there are a few things like that
that seem important to how we evolved as well.
I agree.
I also feel like that's a little bit
of a false equivalency that's being made
because I don't think,
like if you look at any big technological revolution,
there's never really been an overall decrease in jobs.
It's just that the jobs have shifted.
Yeah.
We were promised four-hour work weeks or whatever,
and we were promised less stress
and more happiness and more abundance.
And maybe if we were still content
with the quality of life from 100 or 500 years ago,
actually, we wouldn't have to work that hard.
We could get that.
But we want more and more and more.
The bar keeps going up.
And more than that,
we want to accomplish and we want to compete
and we want to be useful to each other
in whatever the new world looks like.
And we want to sort of push on new things
and discover new frontiers
and invent new products and services
and make new stuff.
Totally.
I saw something once
where some music producer said decades ago
that music had gotten so good,
he really didn't see why there was ever going to be a need
to create any more music.
Crazy.
And we just don't work that way.
Yeah, of course.
Fortunately, unfortunately, it depends on your take.
People are still going to be working hard.
People are still going to be stressed.
People are still going to be unhappy.
People are still going to be striving to create
and trying to overcome adversity
in whatever way is meaningful to them.
And through that, find fulfillment and growth.
And maybe it looks nothing like
the kind of struggles that we have today
or the kind of work we have today,
but I bet the spirit of it will be very similar.
Yeah, I think that's an interesting point
because if you look at how AI is pulling in general,
it is like not pulling positively in America.
And yet I'm so excited about it.
And like, I feel like a kid in a candy store
when I use Shashuity
because it opens up all these new doors to explore.
And I think a lot of my founder friends feel similarly.
But then I look at how it's often covered in the news
and it will be like 50% of jobs are going to be wiped out.
Why do you think that narrative has taken off
and what do you think is actually going to happen?
A lot of thoughts.
I think people do kind of always like doom cells.
The news covers bad stuff, calamity, that kind of thing.
And people seem to love,
a lot of people seem to love reading about,
talking about how horrible the future is going to be
and the bad stuff seems to travel better
than the good stuff.
Now, I think with any new technology
and this degree of change,
there is reason for caution.
And that speaking of these things
that are like deep human evolutionary traits,
we seem to evolve something
where we do want to think about the bad,
we want to talk about the bad,
we want to, and that probably helps us defend against it.
And there's probably a really important societal
shared caution thing there.
I know some AI CEOs are saying things
like 50% of the jobs are going to go away.
To say nothing of how tone deaf it is
for someone to be saying,
my company is going to eliminate 50% of the jobs
and my company is going to be
the most valuable company in human history
and how wonderful that's going to be,
but 50% of you are going to lose your jobs.
To say nothing about the wisdom of,
not even wisdom,
just the sort of like the tone deafness of that.
I don't think that's the right way to think about it.
Jobs will go away.
Jobs have gone away with every technological revolution.
Jobs will change.
I think someone said to me just yesterday
that really stuck with me is,
I can use the new model, GPT 5.5 in codex
to accomplish in an hour
what would have taken me weeks two years ago.
And I thought I would have been
much less busy in that world.
And I have never been busier in my life.
I'm waking up in the middle of the night to do more work.
It's like, make it stop, please, it's too much.
With new tools, I think we will create in new kind of ways.
I have no doubt that the economy is going to change a lot
and jobs are going to change a lot.
And I think caution is warranted.
And I think rigorous debate about new social contracts,
new economic systems are warranted as well.
But I don't think it's like we're all going to sit around
in a life without meaning and without work.
It's just going to be different.
I also think that scientific breakthroughs
are really coming and super exciting.
I want to dive into that with you.
I have so many questions here.
But one of the first ones that came to mind
is going back to the idea that it's like a predictive model.
I think there's like two scenarios that are playing out here.
One is like, if you gave a human enough time
and you gave them all this information,
would they develop the same breakthrough?
And then two, is it kind of like move 37
which was like in the game of Go
when AI came up with a move that humans never would have done.
Like which path are we on?
Well, they might not be that different.
I was smiling because I was remembering
when we had the first GPT models,
there were all of these really smart-sounding scientists
or AI experts that would say,
next token prediction will never develop new knowledge.
It can't.
It's modeled off of the data.
It's been shown.
It can't figure out anything new.
And they sounded so smart.
They had all of this like fancy explanations,
these fancy explanations for why
this was going to be the case.
And then with really with 5.4, a little bit of 5.3,
it was the first time where models started contributing
in small ways, new knowledge
to humanity's collective knowledge.
Like what?
Proving unproven mathematical theorems,
some small-ish new pieces of physics, things like that.
I expect this to keep going.
In some sense, move 37 was already an example of this.
And so this idea that we can train a model
to just predict the next token
based off of things it has already seen
and then use that ability to go discover
fundamentally new things that didn't exist anywhere
is like not so obvious on the face of it.
In fact, you kind of would say
what people turned out to be wrong about,
which is it shouldn't do that.
But really what these models are learning to do
through this process of next token prediction
is to reason, to understand how to make sense
of all of the data they have seen
and complete what comes next,
even if it's something they haven't seen before.
This reasoning process can be applied
to things that you have not seen before.
And this is really quite remarkable.
Like the fact, but people do this too, right?
Like people can go study all of the known physics
and then keep running their model,
their predictive model or whatever.
And by applying that reasoning ability,
they have learned through not just the facts,
but the underlying thinking process
that they develop during their physics training,
go discover new physics.
And I think that's what these models are doing too.
Now, could people do it with more time and more brainpower?
Probably yes, I would say yes, actually.
But it is much easier to go make a faster, bigger model
than it is to figure out how to give people
like much bigger brains.
So I, for one, am thrilled we have these new
kind of like external tool that we can ask
to go think really hard about a problem
that maybe would be harder.
Like for us to think about ourselves.
When you see these models read like hundreds of thousands
of pages in a few seconds,
and then synthesize across all of them.
It's like, you know, maybe if we had a bigger brain,
we can do that, but we cannot with our current size brains.
Yeah, it is interesting though,
that it kind of is similar to biological brains.
And it made me curious, are there other things in nature
that you think we could copy for tech breakthroughs?
Like the airplane is based on the bird.
Like are there other examples of that?
A great scientist once said that there is no alternative.
That's the only thing that we figured out how to do.
Oh, interesting.
Obviously, that's not quite true.
I like that.
I mean, neural networks, artificial neural networks
were clearly inspired by the way neurons in a brain connect.
I certainly don't think it's literally true
that nature is our only source of inspiration
for discovering new science.
But man, is it a good place to start looking?
Yeah.
Is there anything that you're thinking about now
that you want to implement?
Like this is a big week, obviously,
for your new science model.
How are you thinking about science breakthroughs?
What you're focusing on there?
What comes next?
I saw that there is an Australian guy
that helped his dog's cancer be cured.
That is a specific thing.
I was just talking to a founder of a company.
I got to visit YC last night.
Oh, cool.
Who was thinking about a similar thing like that,
but making that a scaled...
I mean, I'm sure a lot of people think...
Like custom mRNA vaccines?
Custom RNA vaccines for cancer in people.
Yeah.
And that seems tremendously exciting.
Totally.
Why haven't we done it yet?
As I understand it, there's many reasons,
but one of the big ones is the FDA is not well set up
to think about how we're going to do that,
although getting better fast.
Yeah, it's interesting because I think
when I think about personalized,
or like the next frontiers,
personalized medicine has to be it
because all of us have such different DNA
and risk outcomes.
Certainly, the idea that if you get cancer,
a company or a lab can make you
a personalized vaccine just for your cancer
and it's very likely to be effective
or likely to be effective
sounds like an obvious thing we should all demand.
Do you use Chachapiti right now for your health?
I do.
What do you use it for?
I am probably an over-user of it.
I think they used to call them like cyberchondriacs.
I don't know what they call the Chachapiti version of this.
Okay.
But any mild symptom I get,
I will go down a Chachapiti rabbit hole.
You know, like everybody else,
or many other people,
I will put my blood test in there
and I kind of wish I...
I mean, I'm happy I do,
but sometimes it'll really be like,
oh, this is slightly off
and I'm like, oh, should I do something about this?
It helped me recently.
How did it help you?
I had a stress rupture from running
and my doctor went out of town
and I had an MRI
and I put it in and it read the MRI for me.
Obviously, he got it checked,
but it was accurate.
That's great.
It blew my mind.
I... when we first launched Chachapiti
and there was like a little bit of this,
it was not very good.
People said people will never use Chachapiti
for medical advice.
It's just not nearly good enough.
It's never going to be good enough.
And even if it were good,
everybody would like rather talk to a doctor.
People still definitely want to talk to their doctor,
but the amount of Chachapiti usage
of people asking medical questions
and getting, at least how they reported to us,
really helpful information
is like quite extraordinary.
Is it tough for you to constantly have people doubt
that the technology is going to be impactful?
Yes.
It shouldn't bother me anymore.
Yeah.
It still annoys the ---- out of me.
It would bother me too.
I feel like if you look at like any big tech breakthrough,
like before we flew planes,
the newspaper was like,
we will never fly.
It will be a hundred years.
And then like the next week,
we were in the sky.
That was that particular example
in the early days of open AI,
we used to talk about all the time.
Love that.
That Wright Brothers, New York Times article.
Yeah.
We used to talk about all the time
and we said, AI is going to be like this.
We're trying to be right.
But the fact like, honestly,
it annoyed me a lot in the early days,
but you know, it was like not super clear.
So I thought it was at least like intellectually honest
of the critics to say,
maybe this isn't going to have a big impact.
Now watching people say there's really no value
and this is going to have no impact on the world.
It shouldn't bother me.
I mean, it's obviously ridiculous,
but it's so annoying.
It's so intellectually dishonest and so annoying.
And also I feel like when you're in the arena every day
and you're like trying so hard to push the ball forward,
you want people to believe in it.
And like, I think with our videos,
I often try to show people like amazing technology
and what the future can look like.
Cause I think you need to see it
to then like lock in and build.
And ultimately I feel like people are the most fulfilled
when they're working hard on something
that they care about.
If you were talking to like a 22 year old today,
what types of things would you be curious to know
about like how they're feeling about the world?
And how would that inform what you build?
Um, a thing that I have been trying to do
over the last couple of weeks
is really sit with people using the latest model
and using Codex to understand
how it's going to impact their work,
what they're excited about,
what they're not excited about,
what they need from us that we haven't already built.
And I've done this mostly with people running companies
or senior engineers at companies.
And I really should go sit down with some young people
and say, try this out and watch what they do
and like listen to their concerns.
You have a unique perspective too
because you advise so many young founders.
When you were on Joe Rogan's podcast a few years ago,
you talked about how there was a lack
of like 25 year old founders.
Has that changed since then?
That's totally changed.
What do you think changed it?
Um, I think there were a few things happening at once.
So I don't really get to advise founders anymore
because life got so busy.
But I have been thinking that I need to find some way
to do that again
because one of the most important things
about this technology is the entrepreneurship
it's enabling.
And I feel out of touch on that
in a way I really don't like.
Like I intellectually understand it,
but I want to go like,
I want to go like be in the trenches
with people building companies
with, you know, two founders and 10,000 GPUs
who like, I've met a few of these recently.
But yeah, this is reminding me
that I got to figure out some way
to get closer to startups again.
Why there weren't,
why there was not this sort of cohort
of young founders then and why there is now.
I think it was a lot of things.
I think the US educational system
went through like a very dark period
where COVID happened at the same time.
And we were kind of like demotivating
this whole set of people
and telling them that like,
I don't know,
the future is going to be bad
and capitalism is bad
and companies are bad
and, you know, ambition is bad.
That seems to have corrected.
Yeah, we're back.
We're back.
There was like a Timothee Chalamet thing
that went viral
where he was saying how much
he wanted to win an award.
And it was, people were stoked about it.
Like they were like,
it's so cool to care again.
That's great.
It should never have not been.
But the sort of like the,
you weren't allowed to be ambitious
or to like, yeah, it was really weird.
Really weird time.
And then I think another thing is
startups thrive when there's dynamism
and newness and the, you know,
there's a change
in the technological landscape.
And that happened
when the iPhone app store launched
in 2008, I guess.
That happened when AWS
launched a few years earlier.
And then it didn't happen
for like a very long time
until AI came along.
So there was just like a kind of period
in the wilderness.
There were still successful startups,
but not as many as there can be
when, you know,
there's a real technological shift.
You said that on your blog
seven years ago.
You were like, we're due
for another technological shift.
I got it.
And you did.
And you're the man that made it,
which is cool.
Thank you.
How do you think about focus now?
Like what are the next areas
you want to focus on with AGI?
And obviously you guys
like shut down SOAR recently.
What are the areas
that get the most focus and why?
I think the three most important things
for us now are accelerating research.
Okay.
We talked a little bit about this.
And this goes from like AI research
to physics, to biology, everything.
But accelerate research
because research
and scientific understanding
does so much for humanity.
Second is accelerate the economy.
Talked about these automated startups.
Big companies using AI
to be more productive.
And all of, you know,
eventually like building
the space colonies or whatever.
And then third is the sort of like
personal AGI.
ChadGBT was like
a little preview of this.
You know, maybe you can
type in your medical questions
and get some advice.
But you would really like,
or at least I would really like,
an AGI working for me
with my whole context,
my whole life all the time.
Just spending compute
to like make my life better.
Those are the three
most important focuses.
They're shockingly similar
in terms of the enabling technology
and platform.
But those are the areas
where I think society
will really feel the value.
For scientific breakthroughs specifically,
you guys have the foundation
where you're focusing
on Alzheimer's research.
What other areas do you think
we can expect breakthroughs?
Like in the next year?
I would expect the progress
in math to be astonishing.
Oh, tell me.
Like in what way?
I think we'll just discover
hugely important new math
and solve math problems
that seemed out of reach.
And like many other times in history,
I expect if we discover new math
that'll point the way to new physics
and other new cryptography,
who knows what real world applications.
But I hope we hold ourselves
to a higher bar
and work on some of like
the messier, more difficult
scientific understanding
that has more of a real world impact.
I don't think we'll get Alzheimer's cured
in the next year
or even really treated
in the next year.
But I hope we can start to see
some new promising vectors
that we can go push on.
Remember Mark Zuckerberg
in an interview talked about how
when he talks to people
that work in AI,
they're like,
we are going to solve every disease.
And then when he talks to doctors,
they're like,
that is not going to happen.
So there's clearly a disconnect
in the two fields.
How do you think about it?
It will take longer
than the AI people think
and shorter than the doctors think.
Love that.
Yeah, I totally agree.
And I think if you even look back
to a few years ago,
the types of breakthroughs
that are now possible with AI,
it's just like,
we're definitely on an exponential.
It seems like longer context windows
is going to be super important
in that exponential.
How do we do that?
Is it more compute?
What has to happen?
I don't think it needs to be like
a literal 1 billion
or 1 trillion token context window,
although I assume
we'll be able to do that too.
I think what you care about
is that somehow
the model can effectively understand
your whole life
or your whole company
or all the things you care about.
And there have been amazing,
they all cost a lot of compute,
unfortunately,
or a lot of memory, at least.
But there have been amazing new methods
to use the current context windows
but really figure out the important bits
or to use tools to go off
and find the less important bits
when necessary
and make way better use
of the same amount of context.
So I think that will keep going
with the new model
and the things we'll add
to the new model
in the coming months.
I don't want to say
it will feel like infinite context
but it feels like,
okay, this model really understands
a lot.
It has way more stuff in its head
than I have in mind.
What's different with the new model?
Like, what'd you guys change?
Smarter.
Okay.
Faster.
More context.
And a,
I don't have the right word for this,
more reliability, let's say.
Like, I think it,
let me say more intuition.
Oh, okay.
It feels like it does a better job
of understanding what I actually want
and trying a few times
knowing when it's on track for that and not
and actually getting me the right thing.
So the subjective experience
is way more of the time
that I ask the model to do something,
it does the right thing.
Interesting.
Because it understands,
based on its training,
did you guys update algorithms
We have a lot of algorithmic change
and it's a newer, better,
bigger base model
with a different architecture
and then,
or architectural improvements,
and then all of the things
we've learned about post-training,
how people want to use these models
and how to kind of connect them
to the world,
people's systems,
people's context,
to be helpful.
So in thinking about it,
tell me if this is the right understanding.
It kind of seems like AI
gets better in three ways.
It's better algorithms,
more data,
and then like maybe more energy
or more compute.
Are those kind of the three things
that we can push on?
Effectively, yes.
There's more data
is a very broad category.
Like is this,
do we mean by that
literally just more training data
or do we mean like
we're going to connect it in a loop
that it can learn continuously
as you're doing something
and it's failing?
That's cool.
But yeah, broadly speaking,
I agree those are the three categories.
Which one's the easiest one
to have a breakthrough in?
Building more compute
is the most certain one.
There's the least science there.
It just takes a lot of money
and a lot of complex supply chain,
but you can just do it.
Algorithmic breakthroughs
are the highest payoff,
but the hardest and most uncertain to find.
And better data is in the middle.
Yeah, but better data,
does that tie to like recursive learning
or like the model teaches itself
or is that different?
It can, yeah.
I mean, that's totally one way to do it.
In some sense,
if the model is really smart,
it can go prove an unproven theorem.
And now in the next training run,
there's one more thing
the model can learn.
We have this new proof.
Yeah.
That's an example.
Interesting.
Are we at that point
where the model is improving itself
a lot right now or no?
It's so hard to frame that question properly.
In some sense, clearly, yes.
If our engineers are three times
as productive as they used to be
because of codecs
and they can write the code
for the next model faster
using the previous model,
you kind of got to count that.
Totally agree.
And then in the spiritual sense,
people mean of like,
are we just pushing a button and saying,
you know, go make the next model
and come up with these new algorithm ideas?
Definitely not.
I also think on the supply chain,
like how do we build
all these like data centers front?
Robotics is so exciting.
You said that robotics
is a big priority for you.
Yeah.
Can you bring into your mind,
like what excites you about robotics
and then what's the roadmap?
We live in the physical world
and, you know,
even when we're in the virtual world,
as you were saying,
we need like this massive complexity
in the physical world to enable that.
We need to make the chips
and build the data centers
and, you know,
run the power plants
and whatever else.
So a very sad future
would be where computers
can do these incredible things,
but because we didn't figure out robots,
we have to like go
run around the physical world
as like the actuators of the AGI.
They'll say, you know,
please go move this table
and do this and do that.
Nightmare scenario.
Really bad.
So you've got to have robots.
What type of robots
do you think will be the best?
I am not that focused
on any particular morphology I want,
but what I want is like
automated manufacturing
and the ability to say,
like, we need more of
whatever this thing is.
And with the same generality
of chat GPT,
a factory of robots
that can reconfigure itself
and make more of that thing.
Do you think you would ever
physically manufacture them
or would you partner?
Don't know.
OK.
Is AI hardware
outside of that a priority to you?
Like, I know Johnny Ives is involved.
Yeah.
Oh, you mean,
I thought you're gonna say chips.
You mean like consumer AI hardware?
Yeah.
Totally.
We were talking earlier
about how you want an AI
to have all the context in your life.
Yeah.
And current hardware,
which is amazing.
I think the iPhone is
currently the greatest piece
of consumer hardware ever
made by a lot.
Like, incredible what that has done.
I agree.
But it was not meant for a world
where you needed a piece of hardware
that could absorb
all of the context of your life.
You know, you can use the phone,
you can stop using the phone,
you can put it in your pocket.
But it's kind of like on or off.
Yeah.
And when we are not using it,
like, this has been
a very interesting conversation.
I would love this to be referenceable
by my personal AGI later.
Yeah.
But my phone is in my pocket
and it's not gonna understand us.
Yeah.
And I would like a device
that, if I wanted to,
can participate and understand
and know about this conversation.
Totally. Yeah.
I think also it would be interesting
to get, like, outside insights.
Like, I recently downloaded
the transcripts of every...
Do you have the podcast, Acquired?
Yeah.
Okay. Love that podcast.
And I was trying to reverse engineer,
like, what makes their show successful.
So I downloaded, like,
400 transcripts from the show,
put into Chachamuti
and had it analyze, like,
their story structure.
And it was amazing.
And I imagine that you could have
similar insights of your own conversations
and how you approach things as a leader.
Yep.
But I also know that when people
see, like, an always-on recorder,
there's an ick with it.
Totally.
What do you think?
One of the reasons I initially
wanted to talk to Johnny is
because I was thinking about
what hardware for the AI world
is going to be
and the ick that I feel with technology
that is just too present in my life.
Like, even a smart speaker.
I thought Johnny would have great insight
about how to design something
that held all of these things in tension.
And I think he'll do great.
What do you think will be, like,
the biggest thing that
is misunderstood about your approach?
I don't know yet.
I'm sure there will be many things
we can come back and talk about there.
Yeah, interesting.
I'm also very interested in, like,
the use of AI,
kind of in the background, like agents.
What does that mean?
And how do you think about it?
When the team first made the Codex app,
I put it on my computer.
Okay.
And it had this thing that,
at the time, we called YOLO mode.
I think we found, like—
You called it YOLO?
We did.
I think we found, like,
a more polished name for it eventually.
But you could basically say, like,
you can just run in the background
of my computer and do stuff.
Yeah.
And you don't have to ask me every time.
And I was like,
I'm absolutely never going to
turn that thing on.
And I lasted a few hours,
and I got kind of so annoyed
by having to, like,
give permission to every step.
I just put it on.
And there was this agent,
you know, running all over my computer,
doing stuff in the background.
And then pretty soon after that,
I, like, didn't want to close my computer
because I wanted to stop working.
Yeah.
And the transition there
was so smooth, so uneventful.
I, you know, thought it was kind of crazy
I was doing it and sort of irresponsible.
But here I was.
We've since figured out how to make it
a more responsible thing to do.
Yeah.
But I went from thinking
I wasn't going to be comfortable
to loving the idea
that an agent was just
running around my computer
doing useful stuff.
What was it doing for you?
Deal with my messages,
deal with my email.
Eventually, I tried some images,
look around my computer
and figure out what you can do
to be useful to me.
Whoa. Did it do anything?
That time I first tried it, no.
But it led me to working
on this little project
of making this automatic to-do list.
That's sick.
Which is sick.
An auto-completing to-do list
is a very cool thing.
Totally great.
Is it built into the PHP homepage?
No, no, it's just a little program.
That's cool.
Yeah, because I feel like
I always download different to-do list apps
and then they never stick
and I end up just texting myself.
Yes.
That's cool.
Yes.
Do you think that there will be agents
that kind of work together?
Will you have one agent
that's like your personal trainer
or will it just be kind of the same?
I wonder about this so much.
This is one of the product design questions
I would most like an answer to.
Yeah.
How people are going to want to work.
I suspect that people will have
kind of a conceptual model
of different agents
and then maybe like their
kind of personal assistant,
chief of staff,
whatever you want to call it
that coordinates among them
a lot of the time.
Yeah, okay.
So let's say that you and I
time travel into the future
and we go in 2050,
China is a long way out.
Feels like even you can't predict
six months away.
But I'm curious like what your dream,
like if we were to dream together
what the future looks like,
what are we aiming towards?
Like what's your vision here?
Like, man, that feels so far away.
Like kind of almost unimaginable prosperity
seems likely.
What I hope for,
but what I think we have to really work for
is radical levels of human agency
where people can just do and create
like beyond anyone's imagination.
And we avoided the kind of
centralization of power tendencies.
And then in terms of what the world
actually looks like,
I don't know, space colonies by then, maybe.
Flying cars?
Yeah, maybe.
Floating trains, that'd be cool.
All right.
I hope it looks like the future.
Me too.
Yeah, I hope it kind of looks like this.
To end this video,
have you ever heard of a blind ranking?
Basically, I'll give you options.
You won't know what's coming next
and you have to tier list things.
I want to do tech breakthroughs.
Okay.
And I have to rank this 1 to 10
and I won't know what's coming.
Yeah, so 1 through 5,
what's the most important in your mind?
But you won't know what's coming next,
so it's a challenge.
You gotta give yourself some room here.
Okay, I'm probably gonna be really bad at this,
but let's try it.
I'm sure you're gonna be amazing.
1 through 5, 1 is the most important.
Yes.
Okay, I'm gonna give you 1 to start us off.
Fire.
The other thing that's gonna be hard
is I'm gonna think they're all 1s.
They're awesome.
3.
Okay, that's a good answer.
The printing press.
4.
Okay.
Satellites in space.
5.
I like that answer, that's smart.
AI.
1.
1, okay.
Self-driving cars.
So your only option left is like...
2.
Would you swap any of them now,
knowing all the options?
I would go AI, fire, printing press,
satellite, self-driving cars.
Good answer.
Why AI over fire?
Fire was clearly extremely important
in human history.
I mean from like food to steam engines
and warmth in difficult climates
and way other stuff in between.
But I would bet that viewed backwards
a hundred or a thousand years from now,
they will both be two of the great
enabling general purpose technologies of all time
and AI will have done more in total.
But you know...
Tough to say.
If someone wanted to say it the other way,
I wouldn't fight them.
All right, my last question for you.
What's like the most common thought in your head?
Like what do you think the most every day?
At this point, it's been like
what does the successful societal rollout
of this look like?
Like not just the technology,
but like what is...
How do we encourage all of this agency
and entrepreneurship?
How do we think about what the social contract
is going to have to look like?
What does it mean to live in a world
of declining GDP,
even if quality of life is going way up?
How do we go be aggressive enough
on the supply chain
to build out the compute power
I think we all need for a good
and sort of fair future
without breaking the economy in the short term?
Those sorts of things.
Love it.
Yeah, you have an interesting,
exciting challenge
of having to think about the now,
but then also thinking about 5, 10, 15 years.
I probably should think about the now
a little bit more, but yes.
Love it.
Thanks so much for coming.
Thank you very much.
You're awesome.
Really enjoyed this.
Yeah, this is epic.
All right.
That was so fun.
Dude, you're awesome.
Thank you for doing that.