How Iran's drones flipped the war ｜ Battle Board

It is March the 13th, 2026, and America and Israel's war on Iran is in full swing. Coalition jets have devastated Iran's air defences and are now carrying out a relentless bombing campaign against its military, its weapons factories and its nuclear sites. But Iran has struck back, firing hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones at countries across the region, even those once considered allies. All sides are now trying to bring this war to a conclusion, but each of them have different desired outcomes and different strategies to achieve them. For the Iranian regime, the desired outcome is simple, survive. If it can do that, then all the damage that America and Israel are inflicting right now can be undone, given time. Their strategy is therefore to end the war as quickly as possible, but they cannot defeat America in a conventional military fight, so they're turning to asymmetric warfare instead. What this means, in layman's terms, is fighting with unconventional methods. Rather than use fighter jets to attack America's fighter jets, they're going after things like gas plants, oil refineries and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The weapons they're using to do this are drones, aerial ones like the Shahed, and boat drones that look like remote-controlled speedboats packed with explosives. The aim is to drive up the cost of the war until Trump is unwilling to pay it. That hands the Iranians victory, even if America's army is unscathed. The desired outcomes for America and Israel are more complicated. When the war began, they both wanted to destroy the regime, but that's now beyond their reach, so they're having to pivot. Trump is looking for a way to justify the staggering cost of this war to an unhappy American public, which also means stopping it quickly. The longer it goes on, the more it costs, and the higher the bar for success rises. But it also means leaving a lasting mark. Things cannot simply go back to the way they were before the war. Something big has to change, and change for good. Trump's strategy for achieving this is a dizzying mix of maximum military force, wheeler-dealer negotiations, and his own bombastic personality. For Israel, the new goal is maximum destruction to Iran, its proxy groups, and its ability to rebuild after the war is over. Their strategy is therefore to fight as intensely as possible for as long as possible. To do this, they're using a potent mixture of intelligence collected by Mossad, data hacked by Unit 8200, an elite team of cyberwarriors, and artificial intelligence. When combined, this generates huge lists of constantly updated targets for the Israeli Defence Force, the IDF, to go and strike. Jets in Iran, ground forces and jets in Lebanon. But this strategy also puts Netanyahu at odds with Trump, his most important ally. Balancing those competing interests will be crucial. This is the war that pits pure military might against asymmetric warfare, and allies against one another with surprising results. This is the second part of our Iran War Special, and this is Battleboard. This is Iran. It borders Iraq to the west, Afghanistan to the east, and looks out across the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Peninsula to the south. Let's put some forces on this map, starting with Iran. The Iranians have three separate but interlinked armed forces that they are relying on to fight this conflict. These are Artesh, the Basij, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC. Artesh are the regular armed forces, descendants of the Shah's imperial army from the time that Iran was a monarchy, and they are charged with the defence of the country. They have a conventional navy, air force, and ground forces that are concentrated in barracks, air bases, and ports largely on the western side of the country. Their kit is badly outdated, and due to sanctions, is not being improved. Jets like the F-14 Tomcat from when Iran and America were friends, ships like the Bayandur class, another American design, and tanks like the Chieftain, which is an old British tank. The Basij are a paramilitary group charged with internal security. Operating under the command of the IRGC, they have a branch in virtually every town and city in Iran. Lightly armed with riot gear, pistols, and rifles, they're responsible for enforcing Iran's strict morality laws and putting down any anti-regime protests. And last, we have the IRGC itself. This is the armed forces of the regime, created by the first Ayatollah to safeguard and spread the Islamic revolution. Just like Artesh, they have ground forces, a navy, and an air force. But unlike Artesh, they focus on unconventional weapons and means of warfare. These are the guys firing Iran's drones and missiles, like the Shahed kamikaze drone and the Fatah hypersonic missile. They're also responsible for policing the Strait of Hormuz and Karg Island, which they do with a mixture of naval mines, boat drones, and fast attack speedboats. They also run Iran's overseas proxy groups, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Iraqi militia groups. Before the war began, Artesh had an estimated 350,000 troops, the Basij claimed to be able to muster 600,000 in a crisis, and the IRGC had 190,000. Arrayed against them are the armed forces of America and Israel. Right now, in this theatre, America has two aircraft carriers, the Abraham Lincoln down here in the Arabian Sea, and the Gerald R. Ford over here in the Red Sea. Each carrier has an embarked air wing comprising around 70 aircraft, primarily FAA-18 Super Hornets, Seahawk helicopters, and Hawkeye reconnaissance planes. The Lincoln also operates a squadron of F-35C fifth-generation stealth fighter bombers. The Super Hornets and F-35s are strike aircraft, which are used for attacks on Iran. The Hawkeyes and Seahawks are used to support those operations. Accompanying them are around 16 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, split between the Mediterranean and Arabian Seas, with a couple guarding the board. These carry long-range attack missiles like the Tomahawk cruise missile, which can be used to strike Iran, and anti-ship and anti-air missiles, which are used to defend the carriers. Alongside them are nuclear-powered attack submarines like the Virginia-class. These are stealthy by nature, so we don't know how many there are. What we do know is they're also armed with more Tomahawks to strike Iran, plus anti-ship torpedoes to help defend the carriers and the destroyers. In addition, there are hundreds of aircraft and dozens of anti-air batteries spread out across airbases in the region. Some of the largest are al-Mawafak airbase here in Jordan, al-Sultan airbase here in Saudi Arabia, and al-Udeid airbase in Qatar. The first hosts attack aircraft, F-35A stealth fighter bombers, F-16 multi-role jets, and F-15 air superiority fighters, which are used to attack Iran. The latter two bases host support aircraft, KC-135 Stratotankers, which allow these attack aircraft to stay in the air longer and drop more bombs, E-3 AWACS to act as eyes in the skies, telling all these jets where the enemies are so they can go and hit them, and C-17 Transports, huge aircraft which move ammo and supplies from the US to these bases and help move air defences around the theatre. Those air defences are mostly THAAD and Patriot batteries, which are capable of shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles and drones, though at great cost. As for Israel, their air force also possesses F-16s, F-35s, and F-15s, which are flying strike missions on Iran out of airbases like Ramat, Nevatim, and Tel Nof, and IDF ground forces, equipped with Makarva tanks and Neymar infantry fighting vehicles, which are currently operating in southern Lebanon. That gives us a grand total of around 40,000 US troops in the Middle East, alongside 170,000 IDF troops, with another 465,000 in reserve. We're now two weeks into the war, and at this point most of Iran's Artesh forces have been taken out of action. American and Israeli strikes focused heavily on these areas in the first 100 hours of fighting, knocking out most of its air defences, aircraft, and navy. It is therefore the IRGC that is leading the fight back against America and Israel, using what its generals refer to as a distributed mosaic defence. What this means is that each of Iran's 31 regions has its own IRGC army, with its own headquarters, capable of operating separately from Tehran. But more than that, IRGC forces in these regions are dispersed away from their own headquarters, and are also capable of operating without direct orders. That means IRGC units are very hard to find and kill, because they're not all concentrated in one place. And it also means that decapitation strikes, like the one that killed Ayatollah Khamenei on the first day of this war, won't stop these units from fighting. They already have their orders, and will carry them out until they run out of ammo or are killed. Right now, most of these IRGC units are fighting a guerrilla air campaign against the US and Israel. What they're doing is hiding away in hardened bunkers filled with drones or missiles. They then emerge, driving a drone launcher or mobile missile launcher, and make their way to a launch point. Once there, they fire at whatever targets they've been ordered to hit. Then they pack up and head back home again. Their targets broadly fall into three categories. Israeli cities, US military bases, and oil and gas infrastructure. To hit Israel, Iran uses its medium and long-range ballistic missiles, firing them in salvos of perhaps half a dozen at a time, spaced out throughout the day. Spacing them out means fewer missiles get through each time, but what it does do is force civilians to repeatedly decamp to bomb shelters. This is obviously hugely disruptive to daily life, and acts more as a psychological weapon than a physical one. For US bases, Iran's drones are proving way more destructive than its missiles. Up to now, we know Shahids have been used to hit radar at these three bases. These radar are hugely expensive, so destroying them drives up the cost of America's war, while at the same time making all their other units less effective. Drones are also the weapon of choice when it comes to hitting energy infrastructure, like the Ras Tanura refinery here in Saudi Arabia, which was hit on March 2nd. On March 18th, they also hit Ras Lafan, a huge natural gas plant here in Qatar, from which much of Europe buys natural gas. And another Saudi oil refinery here in Samre, showing just how long-ranged the Shahids are. Again, this is all about cost. Tehran knows the American economy runs on oil, so driving down production imposes costs that Trump does not want to pay. Israeli and American jets are trying to stop them, but this is proving easier said than done. They're essentially playing a country-wide game of whack-a-mole, trying to find and destroy these mobile launchers after they emerge from their hiding place, but before they can fire and move back again. They've managed to bring down the number of launchers from hundreds per day at the start of the war to just a few dozen now, but eliminating them entirely is going to be a very tough ask, at least if they're only going after the launchers. This isn't what they're doing though. The large part of America and Israel's bombing campaign is going straight for the weapon stores these launchers rely on, and the factories which make the weapons in the first place. This begins in early March on Iran's west coast, and is now rolling eastwards across the country, hitting everything in its path as it goes. By the end of the month, Israel and the US are bombing all the way over here in the east at Mashhad, over by the border with Afghanistan. Along the way they've taken out missile production facilities at Imam Ali in the west, Kogu in the south, Hakamieh, Khojir and Parchin near Tehran and Shahrood in the east. At Parchin they've also destroyed Talagan 2, a high-explosive testing chamber believed to be linked to Iran's nuclear programme. Satellite images reveal precise holes in the ground above where the testing chamber was located. In Tehran, two further strikes kill Ali Larajani, Iran's security chief, and Ismail Khatib, who is responsible for coordinating the repression of the Iranian people. Alireza Tangsiri, head of the IRGC navy, is also killed in a strike on Bandar Abbas, one of Iran's main port cities. Able to roam at will across almost all of Iranian airspace, this part of America and Israel's battle plan is proving hugely successful. At the same time, Iran's own air campaign is faltering. Its drones are gradually becoming less effective as America and its allies find novel ways to deal with them. First of all, America deploys its C-RAM systems. These are basically giant chain guns mounted on the back of trucks with some radar around some of its bases. Though the C-RAM itself is not cheap, upwards of $15 million a piece, the bullets they fire are. And they can take down a drone for around $8,000 a go. The Gulf countries, meanwhile, are using Ukrainian interceptor drones after striking deals with Kiev to buy thousands of them. These are tiny, extremely fast, and cost around $2,000 each, even cheaper than the C-RAMs. So the air war is going against Iran. But it's a slightly different story on the ground and especially at sea. Dealing with the ground war first, Iran is not fighting America or Israel directly, but is instead relying on its proxies. Hezbollah is fighting IDF troops in Lebanon who are pushing towards the Litani River, destroying tunnels, weapons caches, and rocket launch sites as they go. Meanwhile, in Iraq, these militias are attacking U.S. bases, primarily in Baghdad and in Erbil here. To deal with them, the U.S. sends A-10 warthogs to make gun runs, low, sweeping attacks with their powerful chainguns to keep the militias at bay. What the warthogs can't deal with are fiber-optic FPV drones, which carry out several successful attacks against these bases. These weapons originated in the Ukraine war, but have now been exported to the Middle East. Cheap, destructive, and highly resistant to jamming, one attack damaged a shelter at Victory Base in Baghdad. Another spied on the U.S. embassy, and a third blew up a Black Hawk helicopter and a radar at Camp Victoria, also in Baghdad. The same weapons are also deployed by Hezbollah fighters against the IDF in Lebanon. Though we knew Hezbollah had these drones, this is the first time we've seen them carry out successful hits on Israeli vehicles. Meanwhile, the Iranian naval campaign, focused almost entirely around the Strait of Hormuz here, is achieving a remarkable level of success. But to really see what's going on in this critical waterway, it's best to zoom in. This is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway sandwiched between Iran in the north, and the UAE and Oman in the south. It is just 35 miles wide at its narrowest point, made even narrower still by shallow waters on the northern and southern coasts. Before the war began, around 130 ships, carrying around a fifth of the world's oil, used to pass through here every day, using two channels, one in and one out. Even back then, Iran used to harass these ships. Captains reported being hailed by IRGC radio outposts on the mainland and given anti-Western lectures, while Iranian fast attack boats, speedboats with machine guns and rocket launchers mounted on them, would sail out and circle the vessels. But since the start of this war, the IRGC has begun actually attacking these ships, grinding traffic through this vital artery of global trade almost to a standstill. Between March 1st and March 11th, no fewer than seven tankers and transports are hit in and around the strait. Those attacks are carried out by the IRGC Navy, which, just like IRGC forces engaged in the air war, relies on ambush tactics and unconventional weapons. They launch these attacks from bases hidden on these islands, along with the rugged coastline where they are tucked into coves and caves. These troops are armed with the fast attack speedboats we already talked about, Iran's so-called Mosquito Fleet. But they're also using weapons like boat drones. These look very similar to the speedboats, but are unmanned, control remotely, and explode on impact. Meanwhile, the mountains which overlook the strait are teeming with anti-ship missiles like the Nasir. This is a sea-skimming cruise missile that is designed to evade the defences on warships before blowing them up. And drones like the Shahed, which can target the large, slow-moving tankers. Combined, these weapons present a formidable threat to anything trying to sail through Hormuz, even the US Navy. But that's not all. Because the IRGC has one last weapon up its sleeve which complicates matters even further. Naval mines. The IRGC is thought to have laid around a dozen of these mines right here. Right where most ships used to pass to get into or out of the Persian Gulf. This not only blocks the waterway, but forces any ships who do want to pass closer to the Iranian shore and closer to Iran's drones, missiles, and boats. On March 11th and 12th, these forces launch another wave of attacks on the tankers. Not just in and around the strait, but also way up the Persian Gulf near Iraq, off the edge of this map. This brings all tanker traffic to a standstill. Up to now, a few ships had been running the gauntlet by turning off their tracker devices and trying to sneak through, but no longer. Oil prices surge, over $100 per barrel as a result, heaping political pressure on Donald Trump. But there is worse to come, because it turns out the strait is not closed to everyone. What begins happening is that tankers, which would normally sail out of the Persian Gulf through this channel, start taking a detour up and around this island here called Larak. First, a couple of Indian tankers make it out. Then, some from Pakistan. And of course, there's Iran's own shadow fleet. What's happening is that Iran has taken control of shipping traffic, allowing certain vessels to pass through a safe route with no mines, but which is watched over by the IRGC. This system becomes known as the Tehran Tollbooth, and it works like this. Ships are divided into three categories depending on where they're going. Allies, neutrals, and enemies. Each contacts the IRGC and requests permission to transit this safe route. Allies, like Pakistan and China, are allowed through toll-free. Neutrals, like India, are permitted to pass but are required to pay a toll, reportedly $2 million per vessel payable in Chinese yuan or bitcoin. And enemies, like the US and Israel, but also their Western allies, are forbidden from crossing. Between March 15th and March 26th, at least 26 vessels make this journey. For now, US warships waiting on the other side of the strait are letting them pass. Why? Because even though they're shipping oil to America's enemies, they're still increasing global supply and keeping prices low. Politically, though, this is a huge embarrassment to Trump, who starts lashing out at allies, urging them to come and help the US. But everybody, the Europeans, the Canadians, the Australians, and the Japanese, flatly turn him down. Trump then begins issuing ultimatums to Iran. The first comes on March 21st, when he tells them to reopen the strait within 48 hours or else he'll bomb their power plants. On March 23rd, Trump says he's extending that deadline by 10 days, but at the same time heavily bombs these islands, hoping to reopen the strait by force. And yet, the blockade remains in place. If the strait is going to reopen, then the US will have to send in warships. But it doesn't have enough of them to both attack Iran and attack the strait simultaneously. Trump needs to bring in more forces. And if we zoom back out again, we can see that's exactly what he does. Here is Iran once more. And here is where we left this stage of the battle. Israel and America are dominant in the skies and on the ground, but Iran is winning the battle of the strait. In an effort to change that, Trump orders more units to the Gulf. On March 29th, the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit arrives in the Gulf of Oman, having set sail from Japan weeks earlier. They arrive on the USS Tripoli and the USS New Orleans, two amphibious assault ships designed to launch attacks from sea on land. The Tripoli is like a miniature aircraft carrier. It is equipped with F-35B fighters, which can attack ground targets, and Osprey helicopters, which can take troops from ship to shore. The New Orleans is like a giant transport. It is equipped with more Ospreys, but also landing craft, giant hovercraft designed to carry tanks and armored vehicles. Then, on March 30th, the 82nd Airborne arrives somewhere in the region we believe in Kuwait. Hundreds of special forces, including Delta Force and Navy SEALs, are also reported to have arrived around the same time. These elite troops operate out of aircraft like the Hercules C-130 and helicopters like the Little Bird. Flying into battle to rapidly seize territory or take out key objectives. Trump is reportedly considering using these forces for three different missions. The first is an attack on Hormuz to open up the straits, possibly by seizing the islands in it. The second is an attack on Karg Island, further up the Persian Gulf, here. This is the island where Iran refines 90% of its own oil, and it is a major source of income for the regime. Seizing it won't reopen Hormuz in and of itself, but it would hand America a valuable card to trade for reopening the straits during peace talks. The third option is to fly deep into Iran to sites like Isfahan and Natanz to recover Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Tehran is thought to have around 450 kilograms of HEU, which could potentially be used to make a nuke, stashed in bunkers which have been damaged but not destroyed by the bombing. Special forces would have to dig the HEU out, load it onto transport planes, and then fly it out of the country to be disposed of. This also doesn't reopen the strait, but it does hand Trump a big win, effectively ending the Iranian nuclear program, at least for the foreseeable future. But he hesitates, because in the background, things have been going slowly but steadily wrong for the US. First, on March the 18th, the Gerald R. Ford set sail towards Cyprus to undergo urgent repairs after a fire damaged a significant portion of the vessel. Though not thought to be due to enemy attack, the fire is nonetheless embarrassing for the world's most advanced aircraft carrier, and leaves the US with only one in theatre. Then, on March the 19th, the Iranians manage to score a hit on an F-35 fighter jet. The pilot survives, and the jet manages to land. But this is also embarrassing. F-35s are supposed to be virtually invisible to air defences. It shouldn't have been possible to hit one. Then, on March the 26th, an F-A-18 very narrowly avoids being shot down. It was only the skill of the pilot, turning hard into the path of the missile and causing it to overshoot, which avoided catastrophe. US air defences are also becoming less effective. The very next day, Iran launches one of its most damaging airstrikes of the war. Drones and missiles fired at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia succeed in destroying an E-3 AWACS plane, at least one KC-135 Stratotanker, and hit a C-130 hangar. Then, on March the 28th, the Houthis down here in Yemen announce that they are joining the war on behalf of their allies Iran. They now begin firing long-range missiles at Israel, stretching the Jewish state's air defences very thin, as reports emerge that they're running out of interceptors. As this is happening, Trump's behaviour becomes increasingly erratic. First, he tells his allies to go get your own oil from the strait, threatening to hand control to Iran if they won't intervene. Then, he threatens to withdraw the US from NATO, even though NATO is a defensive alliance whose purview is limited to Europe. Finally, he threatens to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, saying he'll hit power plants, bridges and Karg Island if they won't give in to his demands. Then, disaster strikes. An American F-15 is shot down to the south of Isfahan, right here on April the 3rd. The pilot and his weapons officer survive, but are now on the ground in Iran. Tehran wastes no time dispatching Basij paramilitaries after them, offering a $60,000 reward for their catcher. The US must find them first. Low-flying helicopters and aircraft circle Iran's interior deserts, searching for the men. To see how they were rescued, we'll have to zoom in once more. This is central Iran. The city of Isfahan is here. Here are the Zargos Mountains. And here is roughly where the F-15, callsign Dude-44, came down. The pilot and his weapons system operator both ejected before the crash and survived, but have become separated. The pilot, known as Dude-44A, lands somewhere in this valley, while the weapons officer, Dude-44B, lands several miles away, closer to these hills and mountains. Armed with just a pistol, an encrypted communication device, and a tracking beacon each, they are now surrounded by thousands of Basij, IRGC troops, and local nomadic tribesmen, known as the Bakhtyari, who are hunting for them. The US quickly detects a distress signal from the pilot, who reports he is badly wounded, sparking fears he won't survive unless help reaches him quickly. Fighter jets, jamming aircraft, and helicopters are immediately dispatched to try and get him out of there. Conditions are far from ideal. It is daytime, meaning these aircraft will quickly be spotted, exposing them to fire from the ground, and telling the Iranians where the pilot is. But it's either now or never, so they go in. The fighters bomb roads and strafe convoys of vehicles to stop them from reaching the downed airmen, while helicopters swoop in and carry out the extraction. On the way out again, at least one of these helicopters is hit by ground fire, injuring several people on board. But they successfully rescue the pilot, leaving just the weapons officer to find. It's possible this officer, Dude 44B, watched the entire rescue operation play out from these mountains, where he is now stranded. But he has to focus on his own survival. He is also wounded, though not as seriously as the pilot, and is able to patch himself up. Pings from his beacon alert the US to his general location, but they need precision to carry out a rescue. And that relies on him communicating with them using his encrypted device. There's just one problem. The mountains are blocking the signal. So, despite his injuries, the officer has to trek up a 7,000-foot ridge line in order to send a message. During this time, the CIA begins running a deception operation to throw Iranian forces now combing the area off the scent. Agents begin spreading messages within Iran, suggesting US forces have already found the officer and are transporting him overland to various locations. Afghanistan to the east, the Caspian Sea to the north, or southwards, towards the coast, to be extracted by boat. At the same time, aircraft begin flying search missions over the Zargos Mountains, over here, to try and draw Iranians away. Eventually, 44B tops the ridge and sends a message which reads, God is good. But this causes some alarm in the Pentagon because it is originally translated as, God is great. That phrase, alahu akbar in Arabic, leads to fears that the pilot has actually already been captured by the Iranians who are messaging on his behalf and laying a trap. Then 44B goes dark, turning his communicator off to avoid detection. For now, the Pentagon has to assume the signal is genuine and begins drawing up rescue plans which look like this. Two C-130 transport planes carrying 90 special forces operators will land on an agricultural runway in fields near the crash site here. Those transports will carry two disassembled Little Bird helicopters which will be unloaded and assembled on the ground so they can fly up the mountain and carry out the rescue. Once they've secured the stranded officer, the helicopters will fly back down to the transport planes, disassemble, and then everyone will fly out again. The whole operation will take place at night to avoid detection and it must be over and done within a strict time frame or else Iranian troops will descend and everyone will be surrounded. But first, they have to confirm 44B's identity. Fortunately, the officer gets back in contact to transmit a four-digit code. The number is a US police code that means officer in distress, strongly suggesting that this is in fact the officer and not the Iranians. But the rescuers still have to be sure so they send a personal question about the officer's father that only he can answer. The answer is correct. This is not a trap, but the Americans still need an exact location. To obtain it, the CIA deploys a never-before-used system called Ghost Murmur, a tool which, according to reports, can track the beating of a human heart. That reveals 44B is hiding in a crevice high in the mountains. Confident they have the right man in the right place, the rescue mission is greenlit. More than 150 aircraft, among them 64 fighters, 4 bombers, 48 refuelers, and 26 radar-unjamming aircraft get airborne alongside the planes actually doing the rescue. Some of them fly distraction missions away to the south to draw the Iranians away. Others, the fighters and bombers, attack any Iranians heading towards the rescue site aided by radar that tracks enemy locations and refuelers which keep them in the air. The transports then land at the airstrip and the special forces secure the site and begin assembling the Little Birds. Navy SEALs are the ones that board the helicopters and fly into the mountains, leaving Delta behind to guard the runway. By now, the Iranians know what's going on and begin moving towards the runway. Every minute is now crucial. The Little Birds manage to reach the crevice where the officer is hiding, but they cannot land in the mountain's terrain. They have to lead him down the slopes to a spot where they can land using up precious time. The Little Birds then return to the airstrip only to discover another problem. The wheels of the C-130 transports have bogged down in the soft sand. They cannot take off, meaning everyone at this airfield is now stranded. New, lighter aircraft are immediately scrambled, but they use up even more precious minutes just getting there. By now, the Iranians are just a few kilometers away. With the success of the mission on a knife edge, the backup planes land, load everyone up, and then get out of there just in time. The Little Birds and bogged down planes have been left behind on the tarmac and bombers are quickly ordered to take them out to stop them falling into enemy hands. By the time the Iranians reach the site, there is nothing left but smouldering wreckage. The rescue is over without a shot having been fired. At least, that's according to the American version of events. The Iranians present a very different story. In their telling, there was no down pilot. The whole thing was an elaborate cover story to disguise a botched raid to seize their uranium. Remember, at least half their 450 kilo stockpile is stored near Isfahan in underground bunkers. In their telling, the mission was exposed and the troops attacked, leading to a hasty retreat. Whichever side we ultimately believe, the episode does seem to lead to a change of heart in Washington. After this, there is no longer talk of sending troops into Iran. That doesn't mean Trump's keeping quiet though. Far from it. Let's zoom back out once more. We're back in Iran and here's where US and Israeli forces are in the region. It is now early April and the costs of this war are starting to mount. Hormuz is still firmly blocked and no amount of American bombing has managed to open it. Oil is well over $100 per barrel and Trump's approval ratings are trending downwards as a result. Israeli and American airstrikes have caused considerable damage to Iran but leaked intelligence suggests around half of its missiles and drones still remain intact. Israeli troops are pushing deeper into southern Lebanon and the death toll is rising as a result. Around two and a half thousand people, many of them civilians, have been killed amid accusations of war crimes. And crucially, Iran is starting to land blows, not least on US aircraft. Trump is looking for an off-ramp and quickly. On April 5th, the same day the weapons officer is rescued, Trump issues an expletive-ridden message on Truth Social demanding the Iranians reopen the strait. At a press conference to give more details of the rescue, he doubles down. Iran has just 24 hours to reopen the strait or else. On April 7th, with the deadline looming, Trump ramps up the rhetoric even further. A whole civilization will die tonight, he posts, prompting both panic and outrage, even from some of his former supporters. Amid fears that Trump could be reaching for the nuclear button, news begins to emerge that Iran is negotiating. And so, on April 8th, a ceasefire is announced. All sides eventually stop fighting, Israel being the last, but it isn't at all clear what comes next. To work that out, we're going to have to clear the board. To decode this ceasefire, let's return to where we started. Three countries, three strategies, three different end states. Which has been the most effective and who has come out on top? For Israel, the goal was to draw the war out as long as possible and cause maximum devastation to Iran. And they've largely succeeded. The war ultimately lasted a little over five weeks. Beyond Trump's initial four to five week deadline, but not by much. The Israelis could have used a bit more time, and they actually managed to get some by dragging out fighting in Lebanon. But ultimately, they were wary of defying Trump. According to a US tally, a total of 13,000 strikes have taken out 80% of Iran's air defences, 90% of its navy, 80% of its missile factories, and every factory that produces its drones. For America, the goal was to end the war as quickly as possible and achieve some kind of major concession that would justify going to war in the first place. Trump looks to have achieved the first objective, ending the war quicker than many had anticipated, but perhaps at the cost of the second. Because the US now faces the daunting task of talking Iran into giving up its nukes, handing over its uranium, and opening up Hormuz, having failed to do those things by force. And it's having to do this while there's a power vacuum inside Iran. Remember the mosaic defence we talked about earlier? Well, one of the weaknesses of this kind of defence is who gives the order to stop fighting? Who has that authority once the person who issued the order to attack is dead? At the moment, it seems the answer is nobody. The remains of the Iranian government in talks with Trump's allies are close to a deal one day, but then the IRGC scuppers the deal and goes back to attacking ships the next. Never mind the details of the peace deal for a moment, who is there to actually do a deal with? Finally, there's the Iranian regime, whose goal was to survive. Well, the very fact that Trump's trying to do a deal suggests at least part of the regime has survived, at least for now. But Iran was in a dire state even before the war began. And nothing about the war would have improved conditions for ordinary Iranians. In fact, life is about to get a whole lot harder, and the regime is now going to have to quell that anger with only a fraction of the force it possessed before. Will that lead to it being overthrown? We may have to wait months, perhaps years, to discover that answer. So, taking all of that into account, who won the Iran war? Israel seems a clear winner. Its main rival is shattered, it has achieved most of its goals, and it has taken few losses in return. The Iranian regime has also won a victory, of sorts, though how long that lasts remains to be seen. America, though, has emerged bruised. Dozens of troops are dead or injured, billions in military kit has been used up or damaged, and so far very little has been gained. An enormous amount now rests upon peace talks. Trump likes to think of himself as a deal maker. This might be the most important deal he ever makes.