[Chapters / Timestamps] 00:00 - Intro: Precious Metals, Oil, & Gas Overview 00:01:00 - EPIC REVEAL: Gold's Massive Wedge Pattern & Moving Averages 00:04:26 - Crude Oil Technicals & The Power of Wedge Breakouts 00:05:40 - Silver Chart Analysis: Warning! Inside Bar Bear Flag 00:06:58 - Copper Technical Analysis & Key Breakout Levels 00:08:00 - Oil Inventory Updates & Geopolitical Factors 00:09:27 - Natural Gas Breakout? The Lag Effect Explained 00:10:40 - Support the Channel: YouTube Premium & Outro
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Video Summary
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Gareth Soloway analyzes current trends in precious metals and energy markets. He highlights a \"wedge pattern\" in gold suggesting an imminent major move, a bearish outlook for silver and copper, and the complex relationship between oil and natural gas prices amidst geopolitical tensions.
Hey folks, welcome to verifiedinvesting.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist
here. In today's video, we're going to dive into some very interesting developments in the
precious metals market. We're going to look at oil, natural gas, even copper. We're going to
take a look at what is going on here as we see really this almost quiet period in the precious
metals, right? Oil, again, bouncing a little bit as, again, more missiles fired between the U.S.
and Iran overnight. That becomes a normal occurrence, but generally the trend in oil
has been down at least over the last month. Natural gas, is it showing a potential breakout?
And we still have a bear flag on copper that signals further downside. That could mean
an issue for the global economy and even the data center trade. All right, so let's get right into
it here, taking a look at the gold chart. What we have here is a classic parallel, right? High pivot,
high pivot, low pivot, low pivot. We connect them and we get this beautiful parallel. Then we have
this inside parallel, which again, this parallel is parallel to these lines here as well, and it
continues to keep price in check. As you can see today, gold is down a little bit. If we look at
the last few days last week, gold was up a little bit right here and then came down. So really,
amazingly, since the 15th of May, gold has almost not done a thing. Now, that's actually a technical
intrigue, and I'm going to tell you why here, guys. So if we go back to the chart, I want to
throw on my 50 daily moving average and my 200 daily moving average. Here's your 200 daily moving
average. Now look at this. So what we see here is that when we got this secondary bigger pullback
and we came to the lower end of the parallel here, it was also the daily 200 moving average.
In addition, look at what we just tagged over here on this last little dip. And so essentially,
the bottom of the gold trade right now is being held up by the daily 200 moving average. Now,
the reason that's important is that if the daily 200 moving average gets breached, then the lower
parallel here will get breached, and you'll likely see that bigger dip to the downside.
Minimum downside would be a retest to 4100, this low pivot right here, but potentially even down
to this lower parallel trend line, which would be a major corrective move on gold. Now, again,
you'd say, okay, well, that's the lower end. What about up here? What else is up here? And I want
to show you this because it is so cool. At least to me, it gets me all excited. Look at this.
Here's the daily 50 moving average. And what we have here is look at how we hit the daily 50
moving average here, the daily 50 moving average here, and right here is also the daily 50 moving
average. So what are we seeing here? We're seeing that you have parallels, but you're also being
sandwiched between on gold, the daily 50 moving average and the 200. Now, why is that important?
Well, it's important because it gives us a secondary factor when price breaks one way or
the other. And keep in mind, these two trend lines, these two moving averages are getting
closer and closer. Essentially, they're wedge patterning. And again, for me, and by the way,
wedge patterning is a technical term. No, not really. But the essentials of this are that a
wedge pattern, all right, I'm just going to draw a general wedge pattern, keeps price. It condenses
price tighter and tighter and tighter until it either breaks out in a major way or breaks down
in a major way, right? It's essentially sandwiching or pressurizing the price action. And you can see
it sloping up and sloping down. And so what this tells me is that probably within a couple weeks,
maybe less, we are going to either get a major breakout on gold or a major breakdown. Now,
again, some of you will say, all right, so it'll go up or it'll go down. Look at what I'm saying
here. What I'm saying is you're going to be able to tell by this chart, which way the major move
is coming. Price is going to get closer and closer and closer to those two trend lines,
the moving averages. When it breaks, boom, that's the trigger. All right. And what's a great example
of this? Look at oil, crude oil. Take a look at this. Here was a wedge pattern. Let me get rid
of the moving averages here so we don't need them on the chart here. Here was a classic wedge
pattern. Look, it broke and you literally went from $98 to $99 all the way down to 86. All right.
Over 10% move right there. Now you're getting a bounce today, but my guess is this is a bounce
before we eventually go lower. So in other words, big moves come when you break from wedge patterns.
In this case, it's not just a wedge being created by the moving averages. It's also the parallels.
You have double factors that when it breaks, it should be even more explosive. Now again,
in general, because gold has been moving and silver has been moving as a risk on risk off asset,
I would be a little nervous that at some point the stock market, which again is at all time
highs today, is going to have to have a pullback. And do we see gold then pull back or does gold go
back to being a risk off play? Like what it used to be prior to the last six months essentially.
We'll have to watch and see. All right. But I just thought that was so, so interesting to see that.
All right. Couple other things here. Never want to make these videos too long for you guys,
but what we see here is silver. Now silver, let's throw on those moving averages just out of
curiosity. Now silver here. So we see the 200 moving average right down here. All right. So
here's your 200 MA. So notice how this isn't really close to price. Okay. You've never actually
hit it even over here. You didn't hit it, but look, look at how price is hugging the 50 moving average.
But if we look at the chart pattern, is this bullish or bearish? Well, look at this. Let's
get rid of the moving averages. What type of pattern is this? We've broken this upsloping
trend line on silver. So down move breaks. And what type of pattern is this? All right. If you
guys can be answering this right now, I'm sure some of you guys are, that's an inside bar bear
flag. It insinuates price is going to drop, which kind of makes sense, right? Because if we're
hugging the 50 MA, but we haven't hit the 200 yet. And the 200 moving average is down here,
which is my next major support. It implies we should see a leg down on silver to about 66 to 64.
At that point, that will be the big test on silver. That is cool guys. That is really,
really cool stuff. All right. So again, keeping an eye on that and we'll watch and continue to
monitor how that goes. I do want to quickly go to copper here. Let's go over to copper real quick.
Take away the moving average for the time being. Copper is actually having a little bit of an up
move today, but again, this is the concern is you have this bigger parallel, which is going to mean
major resistance around 670. And we still have what we would call an inside bar pattern here,
which again, generally leads to the downside. Now, listen, if copper can break this level,
okay, then we're talking something different, right? That would be a breakout. It would be
a negation of the bear flag pattern. But until that happens, game on, this would be a bearish
inside bar, meaning probability favors the downside. The other thing to watch here is
you have a very defined break point, right? So watch for this. If you want to see a trigger,
right? So some people like to trade the breaks of lines here. This would be a breakup here.
This would be a breakdown here. If you come down and you break here, you're probably going much,
much, much, much lower on the copper price. That's fascinating folks to watch and see.
All right, let's flip over. We looked at oil already here. Oil again, getting a bounce today.
And again, notice, and I talked about this on Friday, if you paid attention at Verified
Investing's YouTube to my weekly wrap up, I said, guys, we've had seven days down in a row. That's
a time count. Again, I'm not going to talk about that more. That's in my courses. It's a discovery
I made time counts a long, long time ago, but it's worked amazingly well. But the idea here,
folks, is that after seven moves in one direction, oftentimes you get a reflex
bounce or in this case bounce. It could be the other way if we've had seven updates. But the
point is, again, we're getting the bounce today. And I do think that, again, the bounce could last
a couple of days. But at this point, any sort of bounce would be major resistance right here.
Now, listen, I guess that's still a big move if we went all the way up there. And we'll just
have to see if it gets that far. But again, inventories globally are starting to dwindle.
By the way, one of the reasons why oil hasn't gone to $150 a barrel or $200 is because that
all these countries around the world that had hundreds of millions of barrels in reserve,
including the U.S., they've been releasing them. But these inventories are getting lower. So there
needs to be some sort of resolution sooner than later or eventually you could see a move back up.
Again, I think up price will eventually either hurt the economy enough to bring it down or
it will have another impact, like forcing the President Trump's hand to make some sort of deal
to get the straight to four moves open. All right, natural gas real quick here, guys. Let's look at
nat gas potential short term breakout. I don't love this breakout and I'll tell you why. I don't
like Friday's price action where we closed at the lows of the day after popping early. And then
today again, now, listen, it's very early in the day, but nat gas, you can see here the candle was
all the way up here and it's already come back here. So, yes, it's up. Yes, it's above the short
term resistance. But look, we have all this resistance right up here as well. So, I mean,
again, it's not like you're in this huge breakout zone where natural gas can go up. Now, a lot of
people will say, well, if oil is going down, you know, why doesn't natural gas? Well, look,
oil has gone up a mile from where we were early in the year and natural gas has basically been
at 52 week lows. One thing a lot of people think is nat gas always follows oil. They trade together.
That's incorrect. There's actually usually what I've discovered, if you look historically at the
charts and this is all data driven and, you know, verified investing, all about data,
natural gas usually has a lag effect. And what ends up happening is when oil is high,
people and companies start saying, OK, well, oil is really high right now and it's been high.
We need to find an alternate source of energy. They switch back to nat gas, right? Nat gas
becomes more attractive, which then drives the price. So there's a lag effect. That should make
a lot of sense to you guys. All right. Don't forget, guys, I introduced a YouTube premium
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You guys have a great rest of your day. Take.