Have Trump's Venezuela promises come true since Maduro's removal? | Global News Podcast

In practice, still I think for a lot of ordinary Venezuelans, not a lot has changed. The same government is still in charge, although remarkably it is now much closer to the United States, having once been arch enemies. The most tangible change, and where I think people are noticing a difference in their lives, has been almost more of a democratic one. People are, what we have seen most notably, the release of quite a lot of political prisoners, although there are still many who are behind bars. I interviewed quite a few people when I was there, including some high-profile opposition figures like Jesús Armas, Maria Oropesa, Juan Pablo Juanita, all opposition figures who had been detained under Nicolás Maduro's regime, but were now freed. As well as that, I think people were feeling a lot more free in the way they talked about the government. People were openly criticising the government in a way that they may have previously felt uncomfortable doing so. There were more protests happening, including some outside prisons, but also there have been protests by university students, by trade unions, people in the streets demanding changes. All things which I think would have been pretty much unheard of before this intervention, because people were so afraid of the repercussions that they could face from the state if they were to criticise the government and the authorities. So I think that is one of the major changes that I've seen. People feeling less afraid, like some of that fear has started to lift. Although I think one thing that did strike me was how people are perhaps frustrated to see some of the tangible changes that they hoped for, and by that I mean particularly some kind of path towards free and fair elections again, but also some of the economic changes that the US in particular has so talked up in recent months. President Trump said that US oil companies were going to go into Venezuela, they were going to fix the infrastructure and importantly make money for the country. Has there been any evidence of that? Well, production of oil has increased in Venezuela and that has, it seems, contributed to growth in general of the economy. We know there's about more than 1 million barrels of oil reportedly being produced, but it is hard to say I think yet at this point whether that is going to represent real development longer term, real economic change for ordinary Venezuelans, or if this is a short-term rebound because of some of those US deals that have been struck. We know that there have been deals struck with some oil mining companies. We know as well that through US pressure, Venezuela has changed its laws to allow more foreign investments in its oil and mining industries, which has essentially opened up the industry to more private investment. But I think, as I say, one thing that struck me being there, particularly in some of the areas that are due to potentially receive some of this foreign investment in oil and gas, is that ordinary people don't really yet know whether that's going to impact them. Will that create more jobs for ordinary Venezuelans? Is that going to have a tangible impact on the infrastructure that has been neglected for many, many years in some of these areas? Is it going to be something that produces a sort of trickle-down effect to the economy and creates more money for them? Because inflation is still at one of the highest levels in the world and also outside of the sort of political bubble that is Caracas, people are still really struggling with things like severe water shortages, power cuts that really have a heavy impact on the economy. So I think some of those day-to-day economic changes are still yet to be felt by people, even if we are seeing on a macro level some of that investment from US companies, for example. And away from the economy, people are still calling for free and fair elections. That hasn't been a change yet, has it? No, at the moment we haven't seen a timeline for fresh elections from either Venezuela or the US as well, who have been, of course, since that intervention, very much or heavily involved in essentially what the government does in Venezuela. What we have seen, from the US at least, is this kind of plan that they've set out where they've talked about a three-stage plan, stabilisation, recovery and then transition. The stabilisation phase, I understand, is what they see as already having happened, essentially a move to a new interim president, Dulce Rodríguez, who was Nicolás Maduro's vice president. I think what the US thought is that by introducing a new figure like her, they could essentially stabilise the country again, have a government that is still functioning. But then they now see themselves as in the recovery phase, and by that I think they are referring to primarily economic recovery. And that is, in essence, what we've just been discussing, the return of some foreign investment, for example, into some of Venezuela's key industries. What we haven't heard much about at all is that final stage, transition. What exactly do they have in mind for a timeline of democratic transition? I think that is something which is increasingly frustrating Venezuelans. Many I spoke to said they were desperate to see fresh and fair elections again. Although, interestingly, quite a lot of opposition figures who I spoke to when I was there and have spoken to since, do feel like there are changes that need to happen, in their view, before elections can take place. For example, they feel like they need to see the release of all political prisoners because otherwise they think it would be unfair to hold elections now when there are some opposition figures that are still in prison. There are some opposition activists or supporters still in prison. They want to see the full release of all of those people before holding any kind of democratic process. They also want to see big reforms to things like the judiciary and the electoral system because those institutions are still very much run by loyalists to Nicolás Maduro and they feel like it would be not a fully fair and transparent election if those institutions are still essentially run by the political party of Nicolás Maduro and his allies. And how strong is the political opposition in Venezuela right now? It's interesting this question because they see themselves as having a mandate after the last election where they published ballots from the electronic voting machines after that vote showing that they, not Nicolás Maduro, had won that election. The opposition's main leader, María Corina Machado, still enjoys very significant support in the country when you speak to people. A lot of people say they would like to see her one day return to Venezuela and have a chance at running an election. But I think the relevancy of the opposition has taken a knock as a result of the US essentially endorsing Delcy Rodríguez to be the interim president in the country. In 2024, when I went there for the last elections, there were huge rallies, social media campaigns, crowds cheering in support of the opposition. They had this very big momentum. And I think Donald Trump, as I say, endorsing Rodríguez in the interim, has slightly taken the wind out of their sails. And their challenge, I think, is to make sure that their leaders aren't marginalised, that they retain and regain some of the relevance that they have, both in Venezuela but also on an international stage as well. One challenge for them at the moment is that María Corina Machado herself hasn't returned to Venezuela. She says she wants to be back in Venezuela. She wants to be part of that democratic transition. But some of her allies told me earlier this year that they thought she would be back in a few weeks. And that was sort of back in April or so. So that's clearly slipped. And I think it's tricky to say. She's certainly keen to be still maintaining close relations with the United States, who she knows will be an important partner for any future Venezuelan government. She's had meetings with Donald Trump, with Marco Rubio as well. In the US. But I think for reasons that I mentioned earlier, there is still a concern from the opposition that there would need to be significant reforms and changes before any elections take place. And I guess from Washington's point of view, they wouldn't want what they would consider, in inverted commas, the wrong person winning the election. Yeah, that's right. I think the US sees itself in a very strong position at the moment in Venezuela. After that intervention happened, Donald Trump and other members of his administration were very explicit that essentially, if Delcy Rodriguez and her administration didn't do what they wanted, then they could face a similar fate to Nicolás Maduro. So in that sense, while the US isn't actually running the country in the way that Donald Trump claimed after that intervention happened, they are, in practice, able to control a huge amount. They are the ones who were pushing for the release of political prisoners. They are the ones that pushed the government to liberalise its oil and mining laws to allow that US investment. They are essentially managing a lot of what was previously sanctioned oil sales coming out of Venezuela. So they are having huge economic influence, but also political and social influence too. The US embassies reopened in Caracas. The US has been pretty much calling the shots when it comes to even things like press access and freedoms at times as well. So I think certainly the US will be keen to make sure that whoever is the next president of Venezuela is going to work with them very closely. If that was somebody like María Corrida Machado, then certainly she's always allied herself with Donald Trump and with his administration. So I think in that sense, they know they've got an ally there. I think what's interesting though, and I'm speaking in hypotheticals here, is that what they do have over Dulce Rodríguez, which they might not have over a leader that Venezuelans have chosen at the ballot box, is they do feel they have this degree of control over her because of the threats that have been made if she doesn't comply. I think it is worth stressing that, again, that Dulce Rodríguez is not somebody who's ever been on the ballot for Venezuelans to vote in as president. So I think that is another reason why many Venezuelans are frustrated that she has essentially taken charge without any kind of democratic process. Ione, thanks so much. That was our South America correspondent, Aini Wells. And if you would like to hear more from the Global News Podcast, click the link below.