Weekly Strategy Session - 16th June 2026

G'day guys, welcome to the weekly strategy session. Just do a quick sound check, make sure you guys can hear me okay? Yep, fine Brad. All right, okay, well let's just get straight into it because there's a few things happening. I was just looking at the Discord, right? Seeing Denny's, I don't know where he got these posts from, but the most unambiguous risk on signal since the war started in February, right? Clean risk on, go, go, go. And then what happens? It dies in the ass, right? So, but this is the thing about, what I wanted to show you that is, just be careful, well not careful, but just understand media's there to create a story, get people reading articles, get people doing all sorts of stuff, right? So, like Trump says here, Iran deal is all signed, details remain unclear. To me, that means, yeah, in his head he's done a deal, but I don't think it exists anywhere else. Until we see that, we'll just have to play it by ear. All right, so it's like the equity indices or a few currencies last week, gold. Yeah, things are bouncing around a bit still, right? And it's been tough, especially when gold or the Swiss has been involved, or actually Swiss yen, Swiss and the yen, I should say, not just Swiss yen, because it's hard to sort of isolate where all the pressure points are, right? So, right at the moment, the start of the week, you know Mondays, this is the thing, right? I look at Monday trading and I did have a look first thing and I see this move, I see Euro taking off and I'm like, all right, that's a Monday, that's what it is. It's not like, oh my God, I'm missing something, there's something big happening. I was more like, that's a good Monday move. Nice, it's going to clean out some scar tissues there. And when you come back into the chart and you get it back up, all it's done is two sort of trend lines here, a lot of carnage, right? That is carnage. And when you're sort of watching a game of sport, you see the battle, right? And then you see the victor, okay? Euro's just drifting back into the range exactly where it started on Monday, right? So that's the carnage. It's a good example of why you don't just rush into the markets on a Monday, right? Low liquidity, uncertain news, unconfirmed news, all these sorts of things going on. All right, so that's where we are. Now let's just have a look what we've got because I'll tell you what, this week, it's got the shape of one of those weeks that is just gorgeous, right? As far as fundamentals. Now, of course, Trump's doing a few different things, so we've got to keep an eye on that. Now, I've just updated a calendar. This will be getting further updated today. But what I've got in here, I just wanted to quickly sort of show you. So we have got some extra features, right? So the cash rate. Now, it's going to be picking up the general trend of what's going on in the Aussie for the major opportunities. So this is really for people who are sort of, I guess, a little bit newer to trading. Okay, factual is greater than 4.5. Well, it's going to be a continuation of the trend. And if I just get that back open. So you've got stronger as expected, weaker. I'm going to do a video and I'll send this out to you guys so you can actually sort of see what's going on. What I'm trying to highlight is particularly for people who are new to sort of trading the fundamentals, in fact, or even keeping track of them, where you can actually really isolate the best opportunities, right? What it's going to do is it's going to read the live signals market analysis page, isolate the instruments that have got clear direction, and then tell you what happens if it's stronger, weaker, or as expected. Okay, that will be pretty good once I get it rolling. All right, now let's just have a quick look over to my old favourite, the trading economics. So let me, why I was saying it's a pretty gorgeous week because we've got continued top tier numbers and they aren't like crazy, outrageous, head kicker numbers. Now, okay, we've got through Monday unscathed because I haven't really sort of dipped my toe in the water yet. Now, Tuesday. Okay, so we've got a bunch of Chinese numbers. Now, these, they're sort of building blocks for what's going on in China, right? And we're always looking at the Aussie and Kiwi for the outcome of these numbers. Now, we've got, there's a couple of interesting things today, the BOJ, right? They are expected to raise rates. Heaven forbid, I don't even know why. Excuse me, so then you've got the RBA rate decision, right, an hour and a half later, which they are holding rates, right? So what you will be doing, just to guide you around the place, is the BOJ, 90% factored in. They're hiking rates and you've got the RBA, 97.3% on hold. So these two outcomes are already in the market. When it's above 90%, there's not much to happen, right? Or in particular, above 95%. It really comes down to what the statement has to say. That can be ambiguous. So you're sort of like looking at it going righto. Let's just see, like basically, let this go through to the keeper, right? Because if there's no rate change expected, it can get convoluted with, there's a statement, then they have a press conference. You could get negative answers, positive answers. Next thing you know, it's back to exactly where it is. That's what happens. So, but you wanna have a look and just see how the market reacts to that, okay? But the rest of the week is, as I was saying, it just flows, right? You've got a bunch of, I mean, there's some housing numbers there in the States, which are an integral part of what's going on. You get into Wednesday. Now this is a little bit more action. We've got UK inflation numbers, okay? And then you got US retail sales figures, some more pending home sales. There's three numbers in the US housing numbers, right? The pending home sales, the housing starts, and I think the building approvals. So we've got a few of those, but more importantly, come down, we wanna see what the Fed have got to say, right? The press conference and the decision. Now the Fed, they aren't doing anything, right? So we're in a position where there's nothing really happening with central banks. We've had the war, they jumped, like some of the central banks jumped up and down, raised rates like the RBA. The Fed have been very closely watching the market. Everything seems to be in check. So there's not much here. But once again, if there's no right decision coming, don't get all excited. What we're looking for is, when we're looking at these numbers, we're really looking at what impact are they gonna have on the normal flow of the instruments. That's what we're looking for. With no interest rate changes, there's no dramatic change coming, right? They're just gonna tell us how they're managing the numbers until the war's over. They're not gonna sort of drop that tone of, we have to wait and see, right? So, but where I think the week is gorgeous, it's all the building blocks in between. Like those UK inflation numbers, you get retail sales figures out of the States, Kiwi GDP numbers. Now there's not many numbers that come out of New Zealand. This is one of them. So we'll have a close look at that. But connecting, let me just come back up a touch. You should be able to start to see where there's a connection in the numbers, okay? Inflation numbers. Come down here, employment numbers, right? These two things side by side are a great thing to have, a day apart, right? We could get the direction and the tone for sterling out of the inflation numbers, right? Maybe already getting onto it. All we need is the employment numbers to match up with what's going on in the inflation numbers. Then you're starting to build a medium term definitely momentum, maybe the direction really picks up into gear. And how else can we connect this? Well, if we start to say the UK inflation numbers are strong, US retail sales are weak, then we get say a neutral tone from the Fed and we get stronger employment numbers out of the UK, well then that's like a triple whammy, right? Inflation numbers drive it up, weaker US retail sales drives the dollar down, so that's sterling up further and you get the compounding impact of the employment numbers third to really drive it home. So sterling, sterling crosses, you wanna be having a look at, right? And this is where we come in. It's like a big week for central banks. You got the Swiss National Bank, nothing expected. Bank of England, nothing expected. It's almost like instead of nothing expected, nothing to see here, except there is, it's what they say afterwards. But that, as I said, that can be a little bit convoluted. So we're gonna breeze through a whole bunch of central banks this week. Coming to Friday, you've got the Japanese inflation numbers. I bet the BOJ were wishing they could watch, have a look at those before I raise race today, but you got CAD retail sales and then you got the last piece of the UK numbers, the retail sales figures there as well. Now, so think of it this way, right? If we go, let me just come up the top here. Okay, so we've got all these central banks, okay? Bank of Japan, RBA, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank. They don't get a start as a major high-impacting number, but they are. So you got basically, what is that, five? Five central banks this week. So just be aware. It's like driving through a, you're driving down the road and you've got like hazard signs, roadworks, either side of the market, and you're weaving around the road. That's what we're doing. We're actually looking at these events because there's no changes of rates expected, right? These are events we need to have a look at, make sure there's nothing weird coming out of the central banks, okay? So that's the key part to this week. And there's good numbers in between because we get some flow here. We get some consistency out of these central banks, and I'm not expecting anything peculiar at all. Then we start to see some flow. And this is where you can start to piece together the sterling as being a sort of a key linchpin week for sterling. Not only the Bank of England, see what they've got to say, but let's just see how these three numbers here in particular line up, right? This is where you sort of isolate one instrument or the crosses, get your favourite euro crosses up, and then that's what we can be looking at, okay? So that's what I'll be doing. Don't make it harder than it needs to be. So when I look at the markets, right? You get up, you sell your majors, and you're having a look across the board. I'm like, yep, bloodbath, bloodbath. Hang on a second, this is not so bloodbath. That's gone up, broke a clean break and sitting there, right? The RBA's tomorrow. So that's probably why it's just sort of sitting up a bit. Maybe they're expecting a little bit of a slightly hawkish RBA, we'll see. And it's like last week, the Aussie and Kiwi were under pressure. Now they're sort of sitting above previous resistance levels. We'll see what's happening. Kiwi's sort of drifting back a little bit with euro and sterling. Check out the beast, right? I can't tell you enough. When I was the head trader for Citibank for two and a half years on the yen, it probably took about 10 years of my life, right? It is the craziest damn thing ever. When it trends, it goes mad, but when it's cranky, you get this, right? Down, up, down, up, like you're just, you're absolutely getting hammered, right? So that's, just be aware, the yen is building up for some more action, obviously with the BOJ. I'll tell you what it does look like, just like calm as a cucumber, dollar CAD. So that's worth having a look at during the week. You look at dollar Swiss. I mean, everything's a little bit chopped up, right? The dollar index, Swiss, euro and sterling, chopped liver, right? Definitely beware of the beast. Dollar CAD looks good. And then we're sort of now, we're sort of coming into, okay, that's where we are right now. What data's coming out? Well, then you know the RBAs later today, right? The BOJ, RBA, we're getting into these sorts of things. Now, equity markets have had a, that's a hell of a good, like this is another thing too, like the good clean out in the equity indices. But I mean, that price action up here is pretty tricky. Sometimes it looks easy. It is so much easier in hindsight, right? You could have been trading the NASDAQ, got chopped up, someone else is hitting the S&P, and it's a much cleaner break to the downside. And this is why you take profit, right? Because these things don't go up and down in a straight line. It is actually higher than where it broke down the other day, okay? Where what we're gonna do from here is keep an eye on these things because when they build pressure, like I was saying, there's a pressure valve release. It could be a key event. It could be something minuscule. And that's what we wanna look for next time is trying to isolate when are the equity markets gonna break and which ones we should be on because you can sort of see, okay, I can see there's cash here, right? So it's not like, oh, I'm disappointed, I've missed it. I'm more like, right, I've gotta really get a grip of this because I need to get into that trade next time, work out the trade plan for the equity indices so I can get into the trade, hold it, and then take profit. I mean, you'd be happy to take profit here, right? Because once it goes back up here, you're probably already taken out on a trailing stop. But the bull bear pivot line, like showing us a treat there, if you had Primetime Pro into that, you're probably getting short here, right? You can look at where you would be getting short, okay? And then, I mean, it goes down to here. Say the trailing stop's already kicking in at that point and you're probably out. The new settings I've got there with the exit on reversal arrow on extreme will come into play on that. All right, anyway, I'm getting sidetracked. So the key aspect of this week, really just keeping abreast, as I said, it's like avoiding some roadworks, right? We've got a bunch of central banks in play. We've got a lot of good data. The only, or the other sort of random situation is this whole Trump deal with Iran. Oh my God. I'm just sorry, I'm just reading the thing at the top here. Trump administration, like they're trying to buy their way out of this, considers 300 billion fund for Iran if deal is upheld. What? That's insane. That is totally insane. That's not, I don't think that's a win, but I guess the polls will tell us more about that. Now, just come back, normal day, like just do a cross-check. If you are trading or you're looking at the markets, get into the habit of, and you might even have you follow the trail, say a couple of templates along, because you wanna look at the markets and you go, yeah, okay, I can see what's happening here. This looks like you can cross-check. Like what's happening in the Euro? All right, what are market conditions like? And you come back over and you're like, okay, well, equity indices have had a hell of a day. The big ones are up at like 3%. Euro, sterling, Aussie, completely discombobulated. Now, if you weren't looking at that and understood that the markets were not good, you walk into a trade there thinking, man, these things are going up. Well, Euro, sterling, Aussie, Kiwi's gotta go up and the dollar's gotta go down, right? The treasury's a little bit lower. Dollar's gotta go lower, right? Well, no, they don't, and that's the thing. Don't pre-guess, preempt anything, because that is a, your charts tell the story and the market conditions follow through on that, right? Confirm it. So on a daily basis, just get used to, when you're doing your analysis, just have a look. Like this time of day at 5 p.m. New York, right? All the settings reset, right? The ranges, the daily percent and everything. So you probably wanna give it a couple of hours to see if the market is connecting, right? This is just a bit of a wham, bam, thank you, man, based off possibly the US-Iran news. I don't know. Now, any questions, guys? I mean, we're sort of rolling through that. The key is just understanding. Usually what we're looking for are the fundamentals. See what's coming out, see what's going to impact. Like the fact that we don't have any potential change of rates in any of these central banks really diffuses the weak, because if we had, just to give you an example, if we had, say, really weak Chinese numbers and then the RBA comes out dovish, then you get a really serious move on the downside on the Aussie. But with the uncertainty around the end of this US-Iran situation and a whole bunch of other central banks which we're just navigating, your focus has gotta be having a look, at the very least, at sterling, right? Sterling has got the key numbers. There's a little bit of US numbers to back it up. So from Wednesday on, I'd be looking at sterling a lot closer than a lot of the other instruments because we've got key numbers coming out and then you can sort of work out what the central banks are doing in around that, right? And with sterling being a major focus, probably pay attention a bit closer to what the Bank of England's saying than potentially the other central banks, right? Because this is, we've got an active currency in play this week with the data. Keep an eye on the Bank of England. They're not gonna come out with anything crazy, but just have a look, all right? And that's pretty much it just at the moment. I have got a few updates coming up. Kevin, I'm gonna get that alerts sorted out first thing and then there's a whole, I've got a whole new bunch of, like just a few gorgeous improvements on a few things that I think are gonna knock your socks off. Anyway, any questions, guys, on that? Not today. All good, Fred. You still list it? Well, this is one, just take it easy. I'll tell you what, did you guys trade yesterday? No. No, this is the thing, right? People think they're missing out on stuff. I come into a day, like I saw the move, as I said yesterday, at the start, I'm like, oh my God, I'm not even getting involved in that ----. It's just crazy, right? You come back into Tuesday and you're going, all right, I'm ahead of the game. I'm ahead of the game because everyone else, if you were trading yesterday, you lost money. Whether you went long or short, you're out, right? So we're actually, you look at that and you automatically feel good about yourself and about the week ahead, you're like, good, we've got the crazy stuff out of the way. Let's just see how these central banks roll and let's start to look for sterling. I'll come into it and focusing a bit more on sterling, obviously tomorrow and Wednesday, Wednesday and Thursday, I should say, and we'll put the pieces together because weeks where there's numbers, you think nothing's happening, all of a sudden you get a nice, gorgeous move and there's all your money. It could be the money for the month, right? We'll see how it plays out. All right, guys, thanks for joining me. I'll get, actually, I've still got to put this page up, but this will be in the Discord anyway for revision. All righty, have a good week, guys, and I'll speak to you in the Discord should you have any questions.