Maui's Best Real Estate Deals Right Now (2026)... How much Negotiating Power ???

Aloha everyone. So I've talked a lot about great deals on Maui Real Estate in previous videos, but exactly how good are those deals right now? I'm talking about the listings where buyers walked in and negotiated a serious chunk off the asking price. Not just $20,000, not just $50,000, in some cases a million dollars or more off the list price. Well I just went through every single condo and single family home sale on Maui so far in 2026. That's more than 600 closed sales so far. And I pulled the actual numbers, the real spread between what sellers are asking and what buyers are actually paying. And what I found will probably surprise you because the deals are real, they're absolutely out there, but the way most buyers are hunting for them is exactly the thing that's keeping them from ever landing one. So stick with me because by the end of this video you're going to know where the discounts actually live in this market, how much you can realistically expect to negotiate off the list price right now, and the one mistake I see buyers make over and over again that quietly costs them the deal that they're looking for. Now it's really important that I set this up the right way. There are a few different ways to measure great deals in real estate sales and they're all useful. One of the most obvious ways is looking at what the property is worth today versus what it sold for in years past. In fact in some of my previous videos I've right here in Maui have dropped 20, 30, and in some cases even 40 percent from what they were selling just a few years ago. That's a powerful way to spot value and it tells you just how good some of these deals have become. But in this video I want to look at it through a different lens because it speaks directly to a mistake that I'm seeing buyers make right now. We're going to look at the gap between what the sellers were asking and what the buyers actually paid. We're going look at that gap two different ways. The first is the difference between the final list price and the sold price. That's the negotiation room that we're seeing in today's market. And the second is the difference between the original asking price and the sold price, which shows you the full journey. How far some of these sellers ultimately came down from where they first started. So that's the whole reason we're measuring this gap. It's not about what something was worth before, it's about how much room you have to move the price today. And whether that room is enough to turn a property you would pass on to one that you would consider is perfect. So let's take a look at the numbers. On average, condos on Maui in 2026 sold for about five percent under their list price. Single family homes were about four and a half percent under. So the typical buyer is negotiating somewhere between four to five percent off of the asking price in today's market. But that's just the average. That's the center. The real story is at the two ends of the spectrum. And I want to show you both. Let's start with the side that surprises most people. Because believe it or not, in this exact same market, some properties are actually selling for over their asking price. On the condo side, about six percent of sales closed above the listing price. And on the home side, the single family home side, it was even higher. Roughly eleven percent sold over the asking price. So better than one in ten homes sold for more than what the seller was originally asking. Now let me be clear about what this does and does not mean. Because on average, those over asking sales were just barely over the asking price. We're talking the medium of right around two percent above the list price. So this is obviously not a bidding war market like we saw just a few years back, where buyers were waving everything and bidding the price up to way over asking price. It's really more of an indication that those particular sellers priced their properties appropriately, right where the market was actually at at that moment, not where they wanted it to be. Now on the other end of that spectrum is where the real deals live. Because that same average also hides the buyers who did dramatically better than the four or five percent off that we discussed earlier. So let me show you the standouts. First, the biggest discounts off the current list price. The actual negotiating room that buyers found at the table right now. At the very top of the chart, a one-bedroom at the Whaler right on Kaanapali Beach sold for nearly 30 percent under its list price. Right behind it is a two-bedroom at Kapalua Ridge, which was off about 23 percent. A three-bedroom in Kihei was down 22 percent. A three-bedroom in Hanuakai sold for about 20 percent less than its asking price. And a one-bedroom at Kapalua Bay Villas was 18 percent off. And it wasn't just condos. On the home side, the single best deal off the list price was a property up in Kula that was asking three and a half million dollars and sold for 2.1 million. That's a full 40 percent below the list price. Now that's the discount off the final asking price, but watch what happens when we measure from the original asking price where the sellers first started. These are the listings that started high and they got cut and cut again. Leading the way was a two-bedroom at Harbor Lights in Kaului, which was down a staggering 53 percent from where it started. Then a studio at Kihei Bay Surf was off 40 percent. A studio in Papakea was down about 38 percent. Another two-bedroom at Harbor Lights was also off about 38 percent. And a one-bedroom at Kihei Kainani was down about 36 percent from its original asking price. And if we look at the single-family homes, the biggest markdown of all was an estate in Oluwalu that started with an asking price just under 9 million dollars and closed at 5 million. That's more than 44 percent off the original asking price. Oh and by the way, that was an auction property that I highlighted in one of my previous videos, so make sure you're subscribed to the channel if you want the inside scoop on some of these deals as they come available. So the discounts are real. 20, 30, even 40 percent off does happen on Maui right now. But here's what you have to understand about those numbers. Those deep discounts, they're not the market. They're the exception. And almost every one of them came down to one specific thing. That particular seller in that particular moment was motivated for a reason you usually can't see from the outside. Maybe the listing had been sitting for a year and a half. Maybe it had already been cut two or three times. Maybe there was a life event that changed their personal scenario. Or maybe they just see a better opportunity to invest their money elsewhere. Whatever it was, the discount lived in the seller's situation, not in the property itself. And look, when I went through the condo numbers, this showed up clear as day. I took every condo sale and I grouped it by how long it sat on the market before it sold. And then I looked at the average discount for each group. And it was almost a perfect staircase. The condos that sold in the first month barely moved at all, just a percent or two. But as you got out to 60 days or 90 days or past 120 days, the discount gets deeper and deeper. And the ones that sat for a year or more, those sold at the steepest discounts of all, north of 7 percent off the list price. And that's on average. But here's where buyers go wrong. And it's the single biggest mistake that I see in this market. They fall in love with one house, one condo, or one particular viewpoint. And then they decide they're going to negotiate some incredible deal on that exact property. And when that one seller isn't motivated, they're stuck. And in some cases, they stop looking for the right deal altogether. Here's the thing. You cannot manufacture a huge discount on a home where the seller isn't motivated. It doesn't matter how good your agent is, how clever the offer is, or how badly you want it. If the seller's situation isn't there, the deal isn't there. Now, with that in mind, buyers who actually land these deals, the ones who end up on the best deals list, like I just showed you, they're not doing it by obsessing over one address. They're doing the opposite. They cast a wide net. They look at five, 10, or even 15 properties that would genuinely work for them. And then they're willing to write offers, plural, until they find the sellers whose situation lines up with the price that they're willing to pay. So you have to be willing to write offers and walk away. Write another offer and walk away. It's a numbers game. The deal isn't a property you find. It's a seller that you find. Now, while we're here, let me knock out a couple more mistakes that I'm seeing in this market, because they all tie back to the same idea. The second mistake that I'm seeing is buyers assuming that this is a distressed market. And it's not. Out of 648 sales, condos and homes combined, only five were bank-owned sales. So if you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for some wave of desperate foreclosure price listings to wash over Maui, you're going to be waiting a long time. This is an equity-rich market, so the deals come from individual, motivated sellers who want to sell now in a slower market. The third mistake that I see buyers making in this market is lowballing the wrong listing. Some properties are priced aggressively and they do sell quickly. So you do need to know the difference. The great deal that you're looking for might actually be at the list price. It just depends on the property. And if you throw a lowball offer at a hot, well-priced listing, you won't get a deal. You'll just lose the property to a sharper buyer. Now, I know a good number of you watching this aren't buyers at all. You might be thinking about selling your property here on Maui. And you're thinking, Jesse, why are you teaching buyers how to negotiate me down? So let me flip this around for you, because the same data is actually really good news for sellers. As long as you do one thing right, price it correctly from day one. Look back at that staircase I showed you earlier. The condos that sold in the first 30 days barely discounted at all. The deep discounts didn't happen to well-priced homes. They happened to listings that were priced too high out of the gate and sat for months, getting cut again and again until a buyer finally caught them on the way down. So the discount isn't something a buyer does to you. It's what happens when a property is priced wrong and left to sit. Price it right, and the data says that you're going to sell it faster. And a healthy share of those selling quickly are still closing at or even over the asking price. And that's exactly the job of a good listing agent, to read this market honestly, price you right the first time, and keep you off the staircase entirely. Whether you're buying or selling, knowing how the other side thinks is the whole game. And that's what I do every day. So let me bring this home for you. The deals on Maui are real. I showed you the numbers. 20, 30, even 40% off does happen in our market. But those discounts live in the seller's situation, not in any one property. So the biggest mistake you can make as a buyer if you're looking for an outstanding deal is to fall in love with a single property and try to force a deal that a seller will never give you. The buyers who win in this market stay patient. They stay flexible. They look at the whole board. And they're ready to write an offer when the right situation shows up. And then just as ready to walk away when the numbers don't make sense. But they keep looking and they keep writing offers. Now, of course, not every real estate agent likes this approach because it takes a lot of time and energy to write a bunch of offers. But regardless of whether you're working directly with me or with one of my associates, we stay patient and focused until you find the right deal. And that can be the difference between hoping for a deal and actually closing on one yourself. So if you're thinking of buying on Maui this year, feel free to reach out to me directly. There's a link down in the description to my contact form and the QR code on screen now will take you there as well. Tell me a little bit about what you're looking for and I'll make sure to get you started in the right direction. And finally, if you got value out of this video, make sure to hit the like button for me. Subscribe for more valuable insights and share this with somebody you know who's been dreaming about making a move on Maui. Thanks for watching all the way to the end. I hope to see you all on the next video. Aloha.