The Global Economy Is Changing. Here's Why | Philippe Gijsels

The global economy is facing some serious challenges right now, with high inflation, conflicts, and the commodities prices going up. Today we sit down with Philipp Geisels, who's the chief strategist at one of the largest banks in Europe. He's talking to his clients to find out what's happening, what they're seeing in the economy, where the global economy is headed. Are we going to have more inflation, more conflicts, or things will turn back to normal? Today he's here to share all of this with us. This is a world where you do not expect interest rates to move 20 basis points, but to move 200 basis points. This is not a world where you expect copper to move 20 or 30 percent, but to double, to triple, to quadruple, or something like that. So that's why we tell clients, expect volatility, expect the unexpected. So you're recommending for people to borrow and invest in hard assets if they can? Absolutely, absolutely. I'm Siamak. Welcome to Market Insider. Philipp, it's great to have you on. Welcome. Thank you. Thanks for having me. You're the chief strategist at one of the biggest banks, the largest bank in Belgium, and you guys have a footprint across the globe with 180,000 employees in 64 countries, and you're constantly on the road figuring out what's going on in the economy by talking to customers. You also look at economic data and you talk to your colleagues. Can you tell us what you're hearing from the CEOs as you're going across the globe? Well, I think there is quite a bit of uncertainty at the moment because quite a bit of things are happening. You have the geopolitics, you have the impact of AI. They're all trying to figure out the economy, and I think depending on where they are in the economy, when they're related to, we talk about the key, the K-shaped recovery, where you have the leg that goes up, where everything is like with AI and semiconductors and memory and, yeah, and then the people who do very well, so they're optimistic. And then the long part of the K, the thing that shapes down, well, there is way more uncertainty. So I think it's very difficult to talk about the world economy or the American economy or the European economy. It is really two speeds. One thing that's doing very well, and one thing that's way more complicated. And I think when you talk to people, depending on where they are, you hear that difference. And can you tell us what you are hearing from the ones that are doing well? Well, I think the thing is real, basically, and when you talk to tech experts, because there is always this big question, is there a bubble? Is there no bubble? Will it last? Will it not last? And most people agree on the fact that if you look at valuations, if you look at the price earnings, for example, it's reasonable. If you look at NVIDIA, for example, forward earnings for next year, it's about 20 times. So that's way, way below. It was at the end of the 90s with the internet bubble. So in that sense, there's clearly no bubble going on. But of course, PE, you can divide in P and E. And the question is how sustainable these earnings are. And then some people say, you cannot keep building more and more data centers. So at a certain moment, it will slow down or even stop and then you'll get into trouble. And then there are others that say you're not even optimistic enough because we see shortages. As far as the eye can see, we see demand that we cannot meet. We cannot increase production capacity. There is a shortage in rare earths and commodities and energy and chips and everything. And they're extremely optimistic. So it's in two camps. I'm a little bit in the middle. I really want to have an open mind to this because I think AI and innovation is one of the biggest events that we have seen for generations, maybe ever. So I think it would be a mistake not to go along with it. But of course, we should not be blind to the risks that are clearly there as well. What about the other side of the K? Is it everybody else that's not in AI that's sitting on that side of K? And how are those companies doing? They are suffering to a certain extent. And if you want to put a metaphor in it, unfortunately, it are the people who don't have a job or otherwise they do three jobs to get to the end of the month. They rent, they typically cannot buy or afford a house. And they're not invested in the stock market. So the problem is if an asset prices go up, the upper part of the K benefits greatly. And the bottom part of the K, if I can call it like that, they're suffering. And of course, they're unhappy, and then they vote in more extremist parties, and so on. That's something you see around the world, back in the UK, or back of the neighborhood, I would say, another crisis in the government. So that's very typical. Now what you hope for, and that's maybe more a hope than a prediction. But eventually, if this AI thing goes on, and we reap all the benefits and all the efficiency gains that people are promising us, well, also the other side of the K will start to benefit. And then the companies in the stock market that do not so very well, I'm talking about maybe the McDonald's of this world, or everything that's related to the housing market, which is suffering, will also have his day in the sun. And normally, this should create benefits for everyone. And this would probably I hope also create a more balanced stock market where it's not only a couple of stocks, or maybe 10-20% of the stocks that go up in a straight line, and all the rest is not participating. Now, Philip, this K-shaped economy, is that across the globe? Because we're hearing about it in the US, but it looks like you have a pulse across the globe. Are you seeing the same thing? I see the same thing, but everywhere to a lesser extent, or another extent, probably. So in Belgium, for example, we have a system of social security, where the focus is very much on redistributing. So it's more higher taxes, more welfare, and so on. So you see it here, but not extreme. Then you have countries where the government is probably, if you look places in Latin America, for example, there, I would say it's even more extreme than in the US. If you look to a country like Argentina, or a country like Mexico, I think the K-shaped, the K is even larger and more pronounced than in the US, basically. But it's a global phenomenon, and we have a global economy to a certain extent. So I think it's a bit of everywhere. And it also explains why the political situation and the unhappiness with the growing part of the population is something you see a little bit worldwide at the moment. What do you think is the root cause of it? How did you think we end up here? Well, that's a very good question. In our book, The New World Economy, we refer to the book by Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning Is Here, which is a fantastic book that I can highly recommend. And basically, he says we go to this phase every 80 years or so. So this is about the sixth fourth turning in the last 500 years. Previous one was the Second World War. The one before that was the American Civil War. And then you have to go back to the UK, because the US is still very young at that moment, another 80 years back, and then you go to the War of the Roses, the Glorious Revolution, the Armada Crisis. So we've been here before. So this is in a way generational. But I think, and I'm not even thinking, I'm convinced that also everything that's happening with AI, the biggest technological revolution in a very long time, is probably a catalyst to make it even stronger than this. It would have happened anyway, but add AI to that, which means that you're in a Pareto world, and not a normal distribution where everything is a little bit around the mean. We live very much in a Pareto world where a couple of people have almost everything, a large majority has not a lot of stuff. And in the middle, there is not a lot either. So that's Pareto. And where Pareto used to be 80-20, I would say it's now 95-5 or 99-1% or something like that. And that creates the world that we have today. What does this phase look like based on your studies? You wrote a book about this. What did you predict about what we're going to? Well, what we predicted is that there are a number of big trends and innovation slash AI is one of them. But the other one are multi-globalization, which is not the same as de-globalization, but it's more globalizing around different blocks. It's not a unipolar world anymore, where everything turns out the United States, but you have all these different blocks happening. You have demographics, you have the debt problem, and then you have climate change all happening at the same time. And our general thesis is, and when we wrote it some more than a year ago, and it was published in English, it was a prediction. We said, okay, this world will be way more inflationary. We'll have way higher interest rates, we have way higher commodity prices, and we'll see a lot of volatility. And well, yeah, today, this is not even a prediction anymore. When we look at the world, that's exactly what we see. And we see the inflation, we see long-term interest rates going up everywhere. And we see big moves to the upside and to the downside. And this is a world where you do not expect interest rates to move 20 basis points, but to move 200 basis points. This is not a world where you expect copper to move 20 or 30%, but to double, to triple, to quadruple or something like that. So that's what we tell clients, expect volatility, expect the unexpected, and then we can work together to position in terms of investments, but also try to position companies to hedge in a way against all these uncertainty going to happen. But understanding this, and knowing that volatility is coming, I think is a first step to do to try to solve it, or at least to work with it. So Philip, do you think we're in the beginning of this stage? And how long is this stage? Is it a five-year period, 10 year, 20 year? How long does it last? Well, normally, a fourth turning is always more or less 80 years. So the previous one was the Second World War. So add 80 years to that, well, that's not too far from where we are today. It's generational. The idea behind is that each and every time you have a very bad situation, like the Second World War, people say, we're never ever going to do that again. So then you start to build NATO, you start to build Europe, you start to build climate agreements, trade agreements, health agreements. So you make, in a way, a new social contract, and you build a new world. But unfortunately, after 80 years, people who have lived through the previous crisis or catastrophe, they're old aged or even dead, and then the cycle starts again. Now, I'm going to draw again on the work of Neil Howe, who is the historian who came up with the concept. He said, okay, it does not always have to be 80 years exactly, it can be 90, it can be 60. But in his mind, we're in the fourth turning. So that's the last 20 years of this 80 year cycle. And for him, it started with the financial crisis 2007-2008. So add 20 years to that. And then we're in 2028. So we're not too far off the end. He talks more about 2032. So we're way closer to the end than to the beginning. That's good news. The bad news is that typically the move from a fourth turning to a first turning again, typically goes together with some sort of, and I'm not predicting World War Three, but goes together with some very negative catalyst, like war. That could be Taiwan, but maybe that's maybe too obvious. Normally, it will be a black swan that nobody predicts, but typically something nasty happens. And then people say, once again, we're not going to do that anymore. And then you go to the first turning. But to answer your question, I think we're way closer to the end than to the beginning of this. We've been hearing that a lot of central banks have been printing a lot of money. Do you see inflation taking off from here? Or do you think we're kind of towards the end of it? Well, I think inflation is just starting, unfortunately. And then you touch upon a very interesting subject. It's one of the chapters in our book. And the debt situation is everywhere, very dramatic. It's in Belgium, it's in France, it's in Europe, it's in Japan, also in the United States. If you look at the total debt in the United States, it's about $39,000 billion. That's a huge figure. At the moment, your United States pays about $1,200 billion of interest over that. So it's going up fast. If it stays on this track, more or less, it could be about $100,000 billion by 2048. And making abstraction of all the other things about the demographics, about the money you have to spend for defense, the money that you spend on the climate change, everything, just this debt alone, almost guarantees you a world of higher inflation, higher interest rates, because there's no other way out. The only way to keep this debt more or less manageable is deflating it to make it less valuable in nominal, in real terms. So I think we will be in a world even though central banks will not admit it, where inflation will be between two and four instead of about between zero and two. So between two and four with some spikes to the upside. And if you think about that, and that's what we tell investment clients each and every time, if inflation runs at 4% for 10 years in a row, well, you're certain that in 10 years time, half of your purchasing power will be gone. So that's the reason, that's one of the main conclusions in our book, that we absolutely need to invest in real assets that are equities, that are real estate, commodities, gold, silver, everything. And that's very hard, especially for Belgians. I think for Americans, it's a little bit easier. But for Belgian Europeans, we do not like that too much. But if you own some debt, and the government reflates away the debt or the value of the debt, well, the value of your debt decreases as well. So having a nice piece of real estate, or a nice investment portfolio, or a collection of old timers, or art, or gold, or whatever, with a loan against it, well, the value of the goods will go up, and the value of the debt will decrease. So that's the way with leverage, you can make money. And then you come back to the K-shaped recovery, of course, people on the top side of the K have the possibility to leverage, have the possibility to have a loan, people on the bottom side, it's more complicated. And that once again, explains the inequality that this creates. So you're recommending for people to borrow and invest in hard assets, if they can? Absolutely, absolutely. And also companies. So when we talk to investors, but also, like you said, at the beginning, we talked to CEOs, and so on, they have to hedge their risk on commodities and on interest rates, when they have a lot of salary mess, they can hedge their inflation. But we always say, if you have a project, an investment project, between now and the next two years, five years, and the market gives you an opportunity, and maybe this opportunity is coming, because when oil prices are coming down a bit, and inflation expectations come down a bit, it's possible that long term interest rates come down maybe 50 basis points, or even a little bit more, but not much more, I would grab that with two hands. But because I think when we talk again, in two years time, inflation will still be at the levels we are today or even higher. And it's very well possible that interest rates will be also a couple of percentage points higher. So I would take advantage of every drop of inflation to borrow both on the investment side as on the corporate side. And do you see the real estate price values go up from here, even though the interest rates going up, because sometimes people it will make the affordability worse, especially in the US, I don't know about other countries, but... Well, it's not, I think about mortgage rates in Belgium would be somewhere around 5%, not 7, 8 that you have, but it depends. But indeed, that's a very good point. When interest rates go up, and that's also something we write in the book, interest rates are like gravity, when they go up, typically, values of real assets are going up less. So I can never exclude that indeed, when interest rates go up, that that indeed, real estate market is suffering a bit equity markets are suffering a bit, you see the gold price, I'm a big bull on gold, but gold is also suffering from the fact that that interest rates are going up. So gravity is pulling it down as well. But at the end of the day, it's way better than being in cash, because in cash, you will lose all of your purchasing power. So we will have to accept the volatility in this real assets, and they will be volatile and it will not be a walk in the park. But everything is better than losing 50% of the purchasing power. So when I typically say to clients, and then they look at you and they think a bit, and after a while, they come back and they say, maybe you have a point. It's in a way not the price of gold, or the price of real estate, or the price of equities or companies or commodities or what have you that's going up. But you see, it goes up, if you look at it, but basically, it's the value of money that's declining. And that's the only way for central banks and governments to keep this very difficult situation, this foreturning world a little bit manageable is by letting inflation go higher. And that's exactly what they're going to do. What would it look like after? And when do you we will turn the corner? So you mentioned in a few years, based on these predictions and potentially and then what what what does it look like on the other side of it? Well, the other side of it, you get always talk about young wizards, my kids are 20 and then 22. These are the people that basically will make new social contract and they will build a new world. In a way, they will be less, I'm Gen X. And for them, I'm a baby boomer. But everybody who's old is a baby boomer. But baby boomers are my parents. So I'm Gen X. But Gen X is a generation that's very, very focused on itself, self development, self achievement, that kind of stuff. So there is not a lot for the collective books that we love as Gen X's are, for example, it's a bestseller, Atomic Habits, for example, how will the future me look at me in 20 years time. So that's a typical subject for a Gen X. If you want something about the collective, and you go to a bookstore, you will not find it in the window. You can find it in a cardboard box at the end at $5. And that's where it is. So when these books about the collective are back in the window, well, you're almost past this story, I think. So that's one way of seeing it. And what also goes, now I go a little bit esoteric, religious on you. But the point is also typically, when you have a new first earning, you have some sort of a new religion. And it does not have to be a religion, like God or something like that. But very often, it is something, a new view of the world. And that I think, and that's a very personal view, and I've not even written it in our book, maybe. Yeah, absolutely. It's awakening is a very nice word for it. And I think and but that's just guessing, because I don't know. But but I would think that it would have something to do with quantum how we will have quantum computing, and so on. But there is also quantum theory. And I think that better understanding of the quantum world will give us new insights about the way the world works, how we are related, because in a quantum world, there are no objects, there are no people, there are only energy flows in a way. And if people start to understand that we're all connected in a way, and with quantum entanglement, and what have you, I don't want to get too technical on this. But maybe your view on the world changes, view on the place that we have in the universe changes. And that's also something that you typically see in a first earning. So that that will be it, it will be a time of optimism. Again, it will be a time that typically you have strong political leaders that in a way manage to flow make the flow of energy. That's now negative in society to turn in a way positive. And yeah, that's the way you will see it and what it will do to the economy. I don't know. I think that it will be inflationary, at least for a while. But after a while, I think the new technological revolution will also in a book, we have the four trends that are really inflationary, but we have the innovation, AI, quantum, that all kind of stuff. That's deflationary. Maybe, but I'm speculating again, that will get the upper hand. And yeah, I think we'll, if we manage to do this technological revolution very well, without destroying everything, I think you can do some some very nice things. But yeah, it will not be too far away. So it will be in our lifetime still. But then I will be hopefully in a beach bar, having a drink, watching the waves. And then it's for the kids and our grandchildren that built this new world. But in a way, it makes me extremely optimistic. Now, you mentioned when this type of transition happens, the phase we're in, it's kind of we forgot the lessons we learned from the past. What do you think we've forgotten in the system? Is it printing too much money or solving problems in an easy way? Not really doing the hard conversations? Or is it bigger, like, we become too selfish? Can you tell us what you're seeing in this? Well, that's that's more or less a personal question. But I believe it all goes a little bit in the direction of what you're saying. Therefore, I'm a big fan, you see the books, a lot of them are history books. So I've been looking at markets and the economy now for more than 40 years. But sometimes your own history, your own memory does not go far enough to find the reference point in history. And that's what Neil Howe does so very well. He tells us that this is the sixth time we're in the same place in the last 500 years. So it's not unique. It happens very often. And indeed, maybe we forget the lessons from the past. We are first generation, have never experienced luckily a war. So you don't know what a war is. So that kind of thing. The Weimar Republic, if you talk about printing money, the hyperinflation in Germany that led up to the Nazism in Germany so many years ago. So yeah, you can find that in history books. And then I saw somebody said that one of the younger people that sometimes come to the house here and friends of my kids and so on. And they said, and I did not know what the answer because they were absolutely right. You look in history books, we look to the future. And there is where it happens. So but in a way, I did not have the answer right away. But then I got to bed and I started to think about it. And okay, they were already gone. So I could not answer anymore. But maybe you should do two things. You should of course look into the future because that's where things are going to happen. You cannot change the past anymore. But what you I think is absolutely correct. We should also not forget the lessons from the past. And it can go horribly wrong. We have seen that in the past many, many times. So and this is an environment for turning we did not predict Ukraine. We did not predict Iran. Hopefully, Taiwan is not going to happen. But this is the type of thing you typically expect in a fourth turning. It's a time of unfortunately, conflict, but unfortunately, also civil conflict, civil wars that that part of the population stand against each other. And when you look at the not the Second World War, but the previous fourth turn in the American Civil War, it was not too far from the Mexican war. So typically, when you have internal struggle, you find or to try to find an external enemy as well. So unfortunately, these things are very much correlated. And I hope I hope not too wrong on the markets, because that's why we try to make a living and try to advance to advise our clients. But sometimes I hope that I'm very wrong on this fourth turning thing, because it's not always a happy story. But I'm a little bit afraid that this is the way it's going to be. And the longer time passes, the more I get convinced that yeah, this is the fourth turning with all the characteristics that it has. Some of them are hopeful, but some of them are not easy. So it's not it's not a walk in the park, clearly. With all that you're seeing, what do you recommend to investors? Well, we already touched a bit upon it. So clearly, own real assets, make sure that you are hedged for this inflationary world. Try to have some debt. When you have a company, make sure that you have hedged quite a bit of things in terms of interest rates, inflation, commodity prices, and so on. Do not forget, this is the largest bull market in commodity the world has ever seen. We have seen a massive, two main reasons. We have seen a massive underinvestment in everything that's in the commodity space, we have not invested in new minds and new capacity, nothing whatsoever. So then when you have a big demand push, like you have from from AI and all these things, you have shortages everywhere. So I would not be surprised that the copper price goes way higher than it is today. So that's a point. And what we've learned, unfortunately, once again, with the conflict that we had in the Gulf, that all these commodities are very strategic. So it means that China will invest very heavily in everything that's energy related, because they know they're vulnerable over there. The US, I think, will invest very heavily in everything that's rare earths and critical minerals, because the US knows it's vulnerable over there. Europe is looking at it, but not doing a lot of things like that's usually the case. But we will come to that as well. So commodities will be usually important. And then I think it's very important to look through volatility, when it happens, it will happen very often. So when markets go down on a bad afternoon, and be ready to buy some of it and try to have a balanced portfolio, I think you should be invested certainly in AI, because it would be a mistake to miss that big trend. But what we propose to clients is to invest in the total ecosystem, not only the AI companies themselves, but also the suppliers, everything that's energy, everything that's commodities, and then downstream in the companies that benefit in a way from AI, and then you get to financial institutions, banks, insurers, then you get to biotech companies, pharmaceutical companies, industrial companies, I'm a big believer in the deindustrialization of the United States, I think quite a bit will come back to the US in terms of production, that will need a lot of electricity. So everything that's that's related to energy, electricity generation, the smart grids, battery technology, well, like I said, maybe you'll get the impression that I'm negative, when we talk about this forth turning, but on the investment side, in all these years, I've rarely seen so many opportunities, basically. So there's a lot of opportunities for investment right now. And absolutely. And in commodities. So you mentioned copper, how much do you think copper could soar from here? Well, it's already had quite a run when we wrote back a book some more a year ago, the new world economy and five trends, we talked about gold going to 4000. Back then it was below two. So everybody said you're absolutely crazy. It touched five and a half. Okay, now it's corrected a little bit because of the higher interest rates. But eventually, I think gold could go to 10,000. I think that silver could see 200 plus in the coming years. And then copper is maybe the commodity where you are most in deficit. And I like commodities, I like metal markets, because they are a little bit easier to predict than other stuff. You have on the one hand, of course, you don't know what the world economy is going to be. You don't know how much China is going to demand. So the demand side is always a little bit fuzzy. But the supply side is reasonably easy to measure, because we know we need 200 new mines to meet the demand, but they're absolutely not there. So if you were to say, you have all the money in the world, you don't have to look at the couple of billion, you put 100 billion or whatever you want, you put in the mining sector, you get a permitting right, you get the feasibility studies right, you do everything right. And if you do that today, it will still take you about 10 years before you have the first ounce of copper out of the ground. So the supply is reasonably fixed, the demand is going up. And like I said, in a four turning environment, do not expect 20 or 30%, but expect big moves. So don't be surprised in the next five to 10 years, that copper doubles even more once again from here easily. So you seem optimistic about the future of the US economy in this environment. What about China? You mentioned is very hard to know what's going on in China. What are you seeing with China? Well, China is a complicated story. And then okay, we have, of course, some some operations there. So we have some boots on the ground to say so we we get some view on it. But I think longer term, on the technological front and the AI front and everything that's biotech, they will be doing well. They're on their way to becoming a very big power once again. So that's important. Now, I think China also has quite a bit of challenges going on. It's not a democracy for the first. So there are advantages, but also big disadvantages. You have the point that currently, they're still going to what we call a balance sheet recession. So they have not a lot of social security. So it means that they save a lot, they save even more than Belgians and Europeans, and there's already a lot. But unfortunately, they put all the money or a large chunk of it in the real estate markets, the real estate market took a hit. And that means that they feel poor, and they save even more, they don't invest a lot, and they don't consume a lot. So that's a big problem for the economy. I think eventually, the government will also put more money in the system and try to stimulate the economy. But do not forget that also the debt problem in China is quite real. The debt level is also very high. So that's one issue. The second issue that China clearly has, I think, is about the demographics. If you look at the fertility rates, they go at 1.2, 1.3 maximum, that one child policy for many, many years. So China, they finally admit, but their population is declining at the moment. So I think that India now has a higher population or India, they also see the population is stopping out because the fertility rate is also a little bit below two. It's not that dramatic as China is, but in Europe, by the way, as well, so many places in the world is happening. So I think that it would be unfortunate to bet really against China, but they have a lot of challenges. Now, if you look at the stock market, it has been a disappointment for many, many, many years. And I think that has to do, and that's a very top down, maybe philosophical, maybe a little bit exaggerated view to it. But for them, social stability, social security, and people being more or less happy is very important. So what they try to do, I think, is that the added value that the companies create go to a certain extent to the population. So it means that they're less profitable, and they're less interesting to invest in. Because if you look at companies as a 10 cent or an Alibaba or something like that, if you look at the valuations, it's way lower than it is in Europe, and especially in the US. But I think there is a good reason for that. So I would have some China in the portfolio, but certainly not to the extent that we have US in the portfolio, because in every European portfolio, you have a lot of US stocks, and especially technology stocks. Because if you want to invest, even though China is doing well, I think in terms of technology, I think it's always a safer bet to bet with the US tech companies. And that's something that has worked for the last forever, almost 20 years or so. What about Europe? Yeah, that's a question we always feel you're going to ask. So like I said, we have quite a bit of the building blocks. So we have, I hope, more or less smart people, good universities, we have capital. But yeah, we still have quite a bit of job, big job to do. We do not have a unified capital market. So capital market is not as deep as the US. So therefore, it's less attractive. And in a certain extent, you have a lot of rules, a lot of regulations. We are not self sufficient in energy, we are not self sufficient in the earth and so on. So yeah, we have a lot of work to do. And I think the main problem that we have is that we like I said, we're good at doing studies, having patents, having IPOs, having startups, but we have that that's that's maybe interesting for the listeners and the viewers. We have not created one new company of 100 billion plus the last 30. We have some of them, we have them, but they're old. So we have not made a Palantir, we have not made whatever. And that's an issue because in this world, which is Pareto, and where the big ones take take almost everything, you should be able to scale up. So that that's there we have a lot to do. Now we are still invested in Europe. We have invested even a little bit in the US industry and chemicals and so on. Because, okay, they have a very big disadvantage in terms of energy to compete with the rest of the world. But if you look at the valuation, it's so low, they're almost priced like they're going to go bankrupt. And I don't think that all the companies in Europe are going to go bankrupt either. But yeah, I think we have a lot of work to do. Everybody knows or a lot of people know what we should do. But knowing what to do and actually doing it is not always easy. Well, Philipp, it was great to talk to you. We hope to have you next time in our studio. Philipp Geisels, it was great to have you on Market Insider. Thanks for having me and thanks for the conversation. What do you think about this conversation with Philipp? Do you think we're going to have significant inflation ahead of us? Or do you think things will change and go back to normal soon? Make sure to tell us in the comments. I'm Siamak, this is Market Insider. We'll see you next time.