Weekly Strategy Session - 30th June 2026

Hi there, traders. Welcome to the weekly strategy session. Okay, now I just gotta say, there's a few good updates coming out. We'll cover the market, the strategy this week, where you should be looking, and what you should be avoiding. And then I'll come back with a few tech updates because we will be rolling out the new mobile app, possibly this afternoon. All right, anyway, so let's have a look at the week, right? And welcome, Mark. Good to have you on board there, mate. Now we're looking at the overall week as a setup, right? First of all, what I generally do is, man, you're probably looking at a few different screens, but let me just move that video panel. You're looking at what's happening in the market, right? And I know we're in the North American summer, and they used to say for years, like the market sort of goes to sleep a little bit during the North American summer. It sort of does sometimes, but you know what? I think it's a bit of a hangover from the US-Iran war, right? You think there's an end, then it kicks off again, and the market's become so desensitised to it. It's really taken a bit of the momentum out of the market. But just looking at the general markets, don't try and overthink when you look at the charts, okay? So looking at the dollar index and dollar Swiss, right? Recognise what's happening, what you can see visually, the dollar is going up against most things. And if you look at the price action here of dollar CAD, dollar Swiss, the dollar index, it's almost mirror image, right? That gives you a lot of confidence. I'm like, okay, the dollar's doing the same thing against everything else. And with that, it's just the opposite mirror image, Euro's popping back up, Sterling's popping back up, and then you've got these two miserable sods down the bottom, Aussie and Kiwi, right? Under the pump. So you're like, okay, so I've got to sort of put things in the right basket here. Euro's good, okay? The dollar index is giving us a good idea of what's going on. Dollar Swiss, Sterling, dollar CAD, I'd leave out the beast, it sort of does its own thing. Then you've got the Aussie and Kiwi are the two sort of odd bobs, right? Because they aren't working with those other pairs. So that's what I take out of it straight away. It's like, okay, so we've got some structure here. We've got some good behaviour in the charts themselves. And don't forget, when we have a bit of a clean out, like what we saw a sort of week ago, you get that sort of move to the downside and trading sort of stops. And this isn't, what you have to understand is the psychology of the market as well. When it gets into levels where there's nothing around, there's no support levels really on the downside of Aussie, Kiwi, Euro, Sterling, traders stop, they stop trading, right? They actually stop and that's what they're doing. So when the dollar is sort of on its highs up here, what's happening in the market, it's sort of like it goes to sleep. That's because everyone in the institutions stands back and they're like, you know what? This is in the middle of nowhere. I'm just gonna wait and see, right? And what happens then, right, is the market just starts to sort of square itself up a bit. And then you find out where the fair value is for the instruments, right? That's what's happening right now. So you see how Euro's sort of gone up, topped out here, stop here. This is the new fair value for Euro, the new fair value for Sterling. Aussie, well, they're still sort of going down. So they're trying to work out their fair value. So now we come back to where the market is and then we're sort of trying to piece together, is there any technical levels and things that we can use? You've got a couple of old support trend lines, right? This is pretty slim to hang on to, but an old support trend line that is now acting as resistance. Yeah, sure, but you know what? Once it's broken through a couple of times, you're like, okay, I need something better, more tangible to hang my hat on. That's for real, right? Because if we don't have good technical setups, you're watching, you're waiting for the market to realign, right? That could take a couple of days, could take a week, and you need to sort of factor that into your own expectations so you don't just start trading just for the hell of it. Right, now, part two is we come back into the calendar. Right, I finally got the calendar up and running. Now, as I said, we've just had a look at the charts, right? And there's some, we had the ANZ business confidence numbers, and that's actually a pretty big pickup there. That's probably why Kiwi is not going as low as the Aussie. But you're looking at different things, and you're like, okay, but I just looked at the charts, and Aussie and Kiwi are a little bit sort of weird, right? They've got a downward bias. You'd bag that Chinese numbers into that. Is that good enough for me to trade? Well, that's when you come back and have a look at the Aussie and Kiwi, and you try and sort of work out, realistically, are there trading opportunities here? So if you redraw your trend lines, this is what you end up with, right? Now that that's chopped through a few times, I'm going to delete that. So this makes it a lot easier to see what's happening on the Aussie, right? It is sort of going down. You've got, this is against the dollar, of course, and you probably would have a look against the crosses. It's sort of just drifting lower, right? At some stage, you know euro and sterling are going up. So at some stage, this has got to come back. Now, I spoke to Kevin last week about this, and it was like, he had a very good question about, I'll get that caveat there too, is, Brad, why is the Aussie just going down? Like, more so than everything else, right? It was a culmination of the commodity markets getting hammered, the new tax system on properties that's going to go, rip through the Australian economies coming out. You've got this strong dollar situation happening. So there's like three or four different variables. You can't really see all of them. If you come over and you've got to follow the trail on your charts, you'll see that the commodities, right, are getting bashed up, right? That means, works for the risk-off profiles. The risk-off, risk-on, risk-off profiles, they call these the commodity currencies, right? These are the ones that get beaten up if the commodities get hit, right? That's a key part of it. So you're like, okay, so the commodities are getting absolutely drilled. That means, that's a good reason why Aussie and Kiwi are going down. So potentially, you're looking for weak numbers, right? We've got stronger Kiwi numbers, so you're out of that. So this is the process you go through. Look at the charts, see what makes sense, and then come back and see if you can find things that might impact that. Now, the GDP numbers, okay, when everything is static, what I mean by that is inflation stands still, the unemployment figures are still, nothing's really happening. That's when the GDP numbers come in. Right now, are they a thing? Not really, right? And actually, one other thing I meant to mention about the currencies and why they're sort of going to sleep a bit, do not discard the impact of the Soccer World Cup. Right, that is a big thing that everyone sort of stops for, right? So that could be another sort of little thing there. So you've got the GDP, you've got some house prices, you've got a few numbers there, right? Now, those all combined, do they give us something to work with? Maybe, but you can see sterling is going up, right? So that's one of the key things you want to keep an eye on. As far as what symbols are affected, make it easy for yourself. If you are having a look at this, GDP numbers, we're looking for things to line up. Well, the only thing lining up there at the moment is Eurosterlings is drifting sideways as is Sterling Swiss. Sterling Yen is going up and the putsy, right? So there's some instruments, right? So that's where you can do a quick, easy cross-check, see what instruments you should be trading. If it's as expected, right, well, you've just got some of the things doing the same thing. And if it's weaker, then you'll see what the impact is there, right? So, okay, so that's, but those sterling numbers aren't like awesome for me. The Eurozone CPI numbers, they are a bit of a non-event, right? The German numbers are important, but they hardly ever move, right? That's why they are important, because if there's a shift in the German numbers, right? And there should be German flags on these because the way Germany does their CPI numbers, just to give you a bit of background, the numbers roll in from all the, what do they call them, provinces, wherever they are, right through the course of the day. It's not like there's one number that comes out. They get them all, then they calculate the average, and then they work out what the German CPI is. It's very rare that it changes. And I'll tell you what, there could be a few disheartened Germans there because obviously Germany just got knocked out of the Soccer World Cup by Paraguay in a penalty shootout. I don't know if you saw that, but that was next level. All right, so you're coming down, what have we got here, GDP. The GDP numbers at the moment aren't a big thing, right? You come into the back end of Tuesday, some housing numbers out of the States, like a third tier number, right? You really need some weird things to happen. Consumer confidence might be something you check afterwards, right? You want to have a look at some of this stuff, but what I'm trying to find is, is there something I can hang my hat on, right? So let's make it easier. Let's just go up here and click the medium, or actually just go high, and we can sort of whip through and go, well, okay, the manufacturing numbers in the States are a good indication of what's going on in the sort of general economy. That's worth keeping an eye on, right? And obviously, if you get a US number, it generally impacts everything, right? All the equity markets, the currency markets, and commodities, whatever it might be, okay? And then this week, don't forget, it's the 4th of July, right? So I think Friday's a holiday. You got the non-farm payrolls on Friday. Now, the non-farm payrolls, unlike what some of the propaganda out there, this is a bit of a bloodbath, right? It's a great one to have a look at. Avoid all the commotion at the time of the release, and then if you see something, have a look, right? But you can sometimes get massive moves up, massive moves down, and it's back to where it is. Do not mess around with it. What it does is, if we get clear direction from the non-farms, trading for the next week should be very good, right? The US CPI numbers, they should usually come out the week after. It might be two weeks because this is, we got, this is coming out on the 2nd of July, so we can wait for the US CPI numbers, but that's what it is. All right, so just having a look through the week, what do I think? What's the strategy? Well, let's just reframe that, right? So you know where things are going, okay? You're keeping an eye on the general direction of the majors, okay? So the dollar looks like it's giving up a bit of ground, but not against Aussie and not against Kiwi. Dollar, yen is just going topside. Very hard to work out the mythology there. Mythology, the methodology. And the dollar CAD heading topside, the same as the others. So really, I'm looking for weakness potentially on Aussie and Kiwi to get in. Are we gonna see the data? Not really. Euro and sterling? Have we got something to hang our hat on there or US numbers? Not really because the main US number coming out is on Friday, right? Now, keep an eye on if you are around or if you've got positions. These are things you just need to be aware of, right? You should have like holding positions, you're having a look, making sure nothing's messing up your positions. We've got the new Fed chair, Kevin Walsh speaking. I already like this guy, right? There was a lot of rumors and innuendo about who he was. I think he's done a good job so far, like bringing the Fed into a new era of communication or what's gonna be a lack thereof if there's no need for it, which is a good thing, right? So I think the main trading days where we might see something sort of really take shape is coming into the back end of Wednesday, right? Wednesday, Thursday, and that's it, right? It's a short week. When it's a short week, the market will take the opportunity to take the week off, right? That's something else you need to think about. So US manufacturing numbers, definitely worth a look. Swiss inflation, yeah, if there's any change there, that would be important. Non-farm payrolls, it's gonna be loose. Half of the New York market will be on holidays out on Long Island, in the Hamptons, whipping it up. So that's where I'm at, right? So the strategy this week, when you look, it really comes down to a combination of technicals and do the numbers potentially add up? What I would be doing today, Tuesday, is just having a look at this, right? Have a look at the GDP numbers. See how they roll out, as I do that, the calendars as a refresh. See how those numbers are rolling out. You can actually also see, keep an eye on the signals, right? You will see here, this will do a lot to managing your expectations, right? Check out the, and this is what happens after a flush out, right, you've got nothing really lining up. And it's a little bit frustrating. I've started yesterday and I'm like, you know what? I'm so pumped. We're rolling out a whole heap of tech. I'm so keen to get this, everything rolling. And then you know what happens? We get that flush out. We're waiting for the markets to reshape as far as the technicals go. And then we can start to get something going. So as much as I wanna start trading, nothing lines up. So I just gotta sit back and wait, right? That's the thing, right? This is where you becoming a better trader will fit in because you'll be like, you're not losing money on days or weeks where the market is crap, right? Now, what isn't crap is, if you have a look at the Yen crosses, right? Just on this. So Yen crosses, mate, they're hard to, like it's hard to, like you just wanna make sure you're getting it at the right level. But that's what we've got at the moment, right? So you've got Euro Yen, Sterling Yen, CAD Yen, Swiss Yen all going up, Kiwi Yen. Do I get into those? Not yet because I'm not getting the right setup and the right levels to be getting into that. All right, so just have a flick through either the bullish pairs, right? Or the bearish pairs. And then you can get a bit of an idea for what's happening. So for today, right? Let me just see if I can refresh that. Oh, that'll pop up in a second. It's on a, there we go. Now, I was just gonna say the GDP numbers, right? If the GDP numbers are coming out, the smart thing to do, get into this habit, click on the Sterling numbers, right? See what's happening across the board. Then you might be like, all right, we got slightly stronger numbers. Well, Sterling Yen might be worth a short-term trade. That's when you can consider that. So you follow the data and follow the momentum, the setups in the market. That's what you're gonna do, especially on a week like this, right? Where everything is a little bit discombobulated. Understand that, you're like, okay, so you know what? I'm gonna go and play a bit more golf. I'm gonna do a bit more work, just go to the gym. Do the things that you like to do because when things are busy, you are gonna be in front of a screen doing a lot of stuff. This is your downtime, right? Do not get suckered into a trade that doesn't make sense just because you're bored, all right? The economic calendar, yeah, let's have a look through, see if there's any disruption, right? Looking across the course of the week, well, there's a lot of US CPI numbers, I mean, Eurozone CPI numbers. The key to the game, what we need, where we make most money is when the US dollar lines up. That is an actual fact. So if you're having a look around across the board here, Kevin Walsh speaking, any US numbers, it is a good thing, right? And you can come up the top here and if you just wanna focus, so you don't get distracted, you might just come up here and focus in on the US dollar and then we can have a look here, look at the US numbers, right? Get a bit smart with your analysis, work out where the key numbers are. Okay, this ADP employment changes, the first part of a bunch of numbers that come out on employment, that could be an early lead. See what Kevin's got to say. Obviously, that would be more likely if you're in that North American time zone. The S&P manufacturing numbers, ISM manufacturing, like this, on Wednesday, Thursday is where it really picks up. And actually, there's a little bit of connection there too. We've got the housing numbers there on Tuesday. So to me, the dollar, it's the focus, wait for the opportunities, wait for us to start getting some synchronicity with the market analysis and that's when the alerts will start popping up, all right? This is the thing with trading, right? You look at the signals and you're begging for a signal and there's nothing. But when it kicks in, we'll have 20 signals all at once and then you're going to work out, oh my God, I've got so many opportunities here. That's when you focus on the instruments you're good at, where you make most money or that have great technical setups, right? That's what we're doing. Any questions, guys? No, all good, Brad. Brad, are you going to cut a video or something rather on the latest changes? Yeah, I know. Well, I've got, I'm doing a bunch of different things, Kev. I'll get those done. There's just a couple of things I need to show you guys with the new Primetime Pro 3.6. I'll be rolling that out sort of later today and start sending it out to you guys. And then I'll show you, because there's a slight change in the trade modes. We've got trade mode with trend lines, but that all includes the bull bear pivot line, or we just got trading with the bull bear pivot line. So I'm going to roll out these videos so you know exactly what you're doing. There's also a mobile app that I'm going to upload the instructions to download to your phone. And this goes some way, Kevin, you were asking about getting notification and alerts. Well, that's actually going to do it, right? So I know there's a bunch of things that you're begging to get your eyes on. What I'll do is I'm going to get onto those today after this and I'll start working through that. There's also going to be a full trader analytics here that you can add it to the heading in about a couple of hours where you can actually pull all the data from your trading platform. And we're going to build the trade analytics and then have that working for you so you can work out where you're good, where your weakness is and all these other things, right? We're starting to talk serious, amazing stuff. All right, that's where we are, guys. It's like one of those weeks where don't get disappointed that, it's very easy to get disappointed, right? Because you're like, just give me something I can hang my hat on. But there's not a lot here that we can this week. So you're just going to like, okay, take a few deep breaths, think about it and go, okay, well, there could be a few things pop up. We'll have to wait and see. Like it's not great when you're waiting for the news to actually tell you what we should be doing. I mean, they're back at the negotiation table. What a joke, right? So let's just see how things go and like just keep in the loop, right? I'll get you updated with everything that's going on. These are all things that are going to help you stay connected to your positions, improve your trading and give you ideas about where the best trading opportunities are, right? That's the whole circular ecosystem we're building. All right, well, I'll get this video up, guys. Don't forget, on the Trade Hub page, you can actually, this video will come up here and then scroll down once the next video comes out. You'll get these updates as well, all righty? Peace, Brad, thank you. All right, guys, have a good one. All the best. I'll give you some alerts very shortly and we'll go from there. I thought you had all that power, Brad. I know, right? Mate, if I had more of me, it'd be awesome. All right, guys, have a good one. We'll be in touch. See ya.