Russia is losing right now Ukraine continues strikes deep in Russia

Ukraine launching a major wave of attacks on Moscow tonight, coming as Putin continues to face massive setbacks in the war, and he's coming under increasing pressure at home as a result, raising questions of whether he'll end the war or escalate. Nick Payton-Walsh begins our coverage out front. Hell is still nightly for Ukrainians. Here are drones slamming into Zaporizhia, where strikes killed one, injured five. But again Monday night, while Ukraine was dragging its injured from the rubble, they fired about 250 more drones back at Russia than were fired at them. 419. 60 of them at Moscow. This video apparently showing the moment a drone impacted near where Russian officials said a six-month-old baby was among the two Russian dead that night. Very few images of the damage to Moscow emerged, where a space communications centre was struck in Dubna. A lot of video actually came from Ukraine's president. Flaunting the damage, the Kremlin has instructed its law enforcement to hide. Russian city skies blighted more and more like Ukrainian cities. And scenes like this devastating attack on a Moscow oil refinery two weeks ago, shattering the sense in the capital of Putin's war of choice being something far away that others fought. Now forced to admit, more times than he would ever like in the last month, to the problems Russians already know about, like gas shortages. You are well aware that problems persist for both drivers and businesses. It's not always possible to find the required grade of fuel at present. Ukraine released footage Tuesday of drone units who said they had targeted Moscow's specific anti-drone defences, making the route to the capital easier. But it is not just Moscow under pressure. The peninsula of Crimea battered hard, its isolation a key Ukrainian goal, achieved through blowing bridges, trains, roads, blackouts and more gas queues. The frontline brutal battles remain, but the story has changed. Ukraine less the victim, more the disruptor, hoping to keep Moscow off balance long enough that it falls. Erin, this is really about increasing pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. But to what end? Yes, Ukraine can isolate Crimea, the peninsula, unoccupied Ukraine. It can rain drones on Moscow and other parts of Russia. But until Putin himself is vulnerable or feels political pressure, we're simply seeing an escalation on both sides. Diplomacy, it seems, certainly frozen, although there are some hopes perhaps it may get another turn, Erin. Just how big of a deal is this? Erin, this is a huge deal. We have some original data for you today. We've got over 20,000 incidents of Ukrainian strikes against Russian targets. They include everything from oil and gas facilities to these kinds of communications hubs and radar installations in cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. And as Nick just outlined, we're seeing huge numbers of attacks in Crimea where they've closed the beaches down. Schools are now closed in Crimea. People are now indoors. The Russian population is feeling this war like they have not felt since the beginning of it. And it's because Russia is losing right now. So, I mean, that's an incredible thing. You think about hearing you, Seth, say Russia is losing two years ago or at times when the war was at its nadir for Ukraine. It's incredible. I know you have this new report coming out and you're going to detail these 20,000 strikes by Ukraine inside Russia. What is the impact of that and what you're talking about? Kids not being able to go to school. Beaches closed in Crimea. Images of thick black smoke over Moscow regularly. Is this making Putin's situation truly at risk? Well, it's certainly not helping him, Erin. I mean, no war is ever linear, so it may not continue in this direction forever. But I think when you combine Russia's economic problems, high inflation, its economy is really struggling, particularly when you get out of the oil and gas sector. And then when you look at the sheer number of casualties and fatalities, Russia's, sorry, the British intelligence has reported upwards of 500,000 Russian fatalities since the war began. I mean, that is stunning. That is over four times larger than all U.S. fatalities in all U.S. wars combined since World War II. And it's hard to see Putin continuing at these levels and to be popular in the country for it. I mean, it is. It is incredible. And that half a million number, stunning. Seth, you know, there's also a foreign policy magazine citing a Russian military blogger's claim along those lines that the life expectancy of an average Russian soldier in an assault operation is 20 to 35 minutes. That's it. You go in an assault operation, you're going to die in 20 to 35 minutes if you're an average Russian. 10 days to three weeks is the lifespan of a soldier from training to combat. That's it. You go into combat 10 days to three weeks. I mean, we can't independently verify this. It's consistent with what you're talking about for British intelligence. How long can Russia sustain losses on that scale, both just mathematically, but also societally and in terms of Putin's hold on power? Yeah, Erin, and there are some indications in that, what you call the kill zone. It's about a 20 to 40 kilometer area between where the Russian and the Ukrainian front lines are where a lot of these Russian casualties are happening. I mean, our numbers are that for parts of the war, the Russians were losing 2 to 1 ratio to the Ukrainians. Now it's up to 8 to 1. The challenge for Putin, if he mobilizes, is that it could impact people in Moscow and the sons of elites. And I think that's where he would have a problem. I want to talk about how the Russian military has adapted, how they've created their own drone warfare as well, in many ways, outpacing other NATO countries. So in Europe, it's Ukraine dominant, but then Russia is not that far behind in drone warfare production. But as it relates to these specific longer range strikes, which the United States, we should note, even under President Biden, had really urged Ukraine not to engage in and not to pursue. President Zelensky calls them long range sanctions. And in his view, he thinks this is what's going to bring President Putin to the negotiating table in earnest. Is that how you're interpreting it? Do you think that this will finally get him to settle down for peace talks or is he only going to fight back harder now? Well, you know, President Putin is a very stubborn man and is a man who believes that he can win this war in the battlefield. You know, in this speech in which he promised to take care of the fuel shortages, he also spoke at length about real and alleged Russian military victories in the battlefield. And one must say that the information that he was citing is incorrect. So these are wildly optimistic assessments that do not correspond to the reality in the battlefield, where Russia has barely advanced in the last six months. And so, but the equation is very simple. Fuel can return to the Russian gas stations the moment Russia agrees to a ceasefire, at the very least to a ceasefire when it comes to long range strikes. President Putin on Sunday refused to do that. He said that Russia has an advantage in long range firepower. So it's not in Russia's benefit to seize a fire and to stop this long range strikes. So for now, this exchange will go on. And as Ukraine's capabilities grow, so will the pain that Russia is suffering.