Gold to 8 500 After a Brutal Pullback Chris Vermeulen's Warning for Metals

Hello again from Sprott Money, SprottMoney.com. We have reached the end of the second quarter, the first half of a very eventful 2026. And I don't know about you, but I'm ready to turn the page to July. It is time for your precious metal projections, a call we usually have here at the first of every month with our friend, Chris Vermeulen. I'm your host, Craig Hempke, but always welcome to visit with Chris. Let's do it again. Chris, good to see you. Hey, Craig. Always a pleasure. Yeah, good to see you. As we record this, it's actually still the second quarter. It's about midday on Tuesday the 30th, but with Canada Day holiday coming up on Wednesday, we thought, well, we better bang this out today. And see how we look here at the end of what has been an eventful first quarter. We'll see. Hopefully things will turn around in the second half. I will just use the old adage that we used to use when I was a stockbroker all those decades ago. If you believe in your thesis and where a certain company is going, and it goes down in the short term, don't be sore, buy more. And that's kind of a little bit what we're dealing with now. Please stop by Sprott Money, SprottMoney.com. They've got great deals just now. I was on the SprottMoney.com homepage. I saw random year gold sovereigns for about $40 over spot. There's a deal tab right up there on the top of that nav bar that Chris is showing you. Go there all the time. Always great deals, not only on purchasing precious metal, but storing precious metal too. You got to store it someplace safe and reliable. And obviously Sprott Money, one of the most trusted names you're going to find out there. Please visit SprottMoney.com and thank them for all this content. It's going to be another busy month, but we'll start here with the precious metal projections. Very interesting month of June, Chris, that was driven by some, I don't know if we'll call it fundamental factors or not, but I sat there and watched Warsh expecting him to be more dovish than what the market was thinking. And it actually came in more hawkish. And that was quick to trim about 10% off a gold and geez Louise, maybe almost almost 20% off a silver in a week. We're now banging around trying to find a base. Let's start with gold. What do you see, my friend? Yeah, well, when we take a look at the precious metals charts here, gold, I mean, it is trying to hold on to this kind of low, this little congestion area where we've had a lot of volatility traded through here late last year. And then we saw a market have a huge washout, low, big, high volume, low and a bounce. It's found that level again. It's bounce. And now it is just clinging on, hoping it can hold this level. But the overall trend right now is getting a little bit mixed here. We got the longer term trend still more or less holding up. The shorter term trends are pointing to lower pricing, meaning it's going to want to naturally follow that trend. The trend is more likely to continue. And so it is still pointing to a little bit of a precipitous fall here. This is a high momentum move. And based on this chart, it is showing that we could see gold slip 38, 3600. It might happen very quick. I do feel like we could see a little bit of some type of news to come out that could create a bit of a slide here. I think it would probably spark some short term margin calls and create something like this where we have a huge lower wick and then a sharp rebound. We've seen it happen a few times. I'm actually pretty interested to see when this is going to happen. This chart is pointing to like in the next week or two, we could see gold slip right to 3600 and it'll be a very short term, a very short lived moment. I was telling this to subscribers yesterday saying you need to be ready because at any point I think we could see some event and gold has some crazy spike washout low and then quickly rebounds and it might be a very significant low on the chart. When we look at the chart using Fibonacci theory, it's pointing to about 3600. This is telling us based on the initial sell off and the strength of the bounce, it's telling us we should find some type of short term support at the 618, which is the golden ratio. This is a level where just things in the universe tend to find support or resistance temporarily. And if it does have a bounce there, we almost always see the asset class move to the 100% measured move down here. I'm really interested to see and waiting to pull the trigger to pick up a bunch of physical metals down at this level and potentially start to see it build a base after that. The big question after that, Craig, is how big of a base is this going to take? Could it take three months, six months before it starts to move higher and start to rally? That's the big question, but I'm gutting for and looking to buy metals, gold specifically at 3600. Chris, we use those Fibonacci levels on the way up quite effectively. Yeah, I remember you talking about once you get through that 618, you almost always go to the 100 level. So I certainly see why it would work on the downside. Can you nail down that 618 level for what that would be for people to watch? For the downside or for the upside here? Yeah, if that gives way in the days ahead, what level is that? Well, this level here to the downside will be 3600. No, no, the 618 level. If the 618 level gives way, what is that 618 level? Yeah, sorry. That's about 4100. It's right where gold is trading right now, 4400. And so it's just kind of flirting around this orange line. If I zoom in, you can see it a little bit more. It's tagged this level, bounced off it. And so this is that level. And it's kind of already below it and losing traction. It's kind of slipping. So I think this is an amazing opportunity. And I think you need to have Sprout on speed dials so that you can pick up some metals if we get this very sharp dip. Chris, what if, on the flip side, that 618 level holds and that this recent dip from 4400 down to whatever the lows were back on Monday evening, 3956 or something like that, what would you be watching for in a recovery to go, oh, OK, maybe the worst is over? Yeah, well, what I would look for would be like what I call an impulse move. So what we want to see from a technical standpoint is we want to see price have very strong momentum. And so if we look at these previous highs, so we've got a previous high over here. We've got another previous high over here. An impulse move means the market has a strong move, an impulse move. It's busted through two resistance levels. When you break through two ceilings, that first pause and pullback is usually an opportunity to get in before it starts the next big run. And then it'll rinse and repeat through these bull flag usually patterns. So that's what I'd be looking for. And gold, I mean, it's a long ways up. Right now it's at 4000, right? It would need to really get to about 4600 to break out and then a pause from there. And that'll say, hey, the momentum has shifted from a downtrend, which is lower highs and lower lows to now it is made. It's broken a bunch of highs. It has a higher high. And now we're looking forward to create like a higher low. Right. And when it starts to turn up and break out, you can be like, OK, this train is leaving the station and the next move is going to be some significantly higher. And, you know, we can get a gauge of where that is. If we look at the weekly chart and we go back to the previous kind of major, major lows here for gold, we'll kind of go right back to here. The 2014 lows we can get here. 2015 lows. We can get a gauge based on if silver or gold is to find traction right here. This huge super cycle and the blowoff phase and this correction down is saying that if if it hooks up and starts to move higher, we're looking at about eighty five eighty five hundred for gold. So, I mean, that's a pretty nice double from kind of where it is right now. Yeah, but there's a lot of upside. And so that's what's really exciting. And obviously, if gold pulls back lower, if it does pull back to that Fibonacci level, it lowers the target as well. So if we go to thirty six hundred gold still would move to about eighty one hundred, which is obviously still a very significant move. In fact, if we move these levels down, it actually is provides more opportunity, about 30 percent more potential if it goes down to that level. I'd point out to people, you know, eight thousand. Well, you know, over the last ten years, gold's gone from eleven hundred to two thousand, five thousand, and the debt keeps increasing and the money supply keeps increasing. So why in another five years wouldn't it go to eight thousand? So anyway, Chris, back to your charts, however, I think that's extremely helpful. I mean, we want to really keep and if we start watching out below four thousand, that gives you some idea of what might be coming. Let's do the same exercise with silver. There are some old highs after we first broke through 50 from November and October of last year at around fifty four. I mean, we're trying to find some support near there. What do you see? Yes. So silver has has similar type of price action. And this is this actually goes silver, platinum and palladium actually all have very similar chart patterns. They're really trying to cling on to this kind of significant. There's a little breakout level support, support, support, and it's kind of broken down and has a little bit of a bearish pattern. So silver is already kind of giving way along with platinum and palladium. And I do think we are going to see metals have one more push down. And I think it's going to be fairly violent when we look at silver using Fibonacci. We have the initial leg down and we've got this bounce and it is pointing to still a very sharp drop for silver. It is pointing to about forty dollars per ounce. And that's why I'm excited because I love silver in that way, because it is extremely volatile. And when you have, if we have this, just the way these charts are unfolding, I feel like we're going to see some event and there's going to be margin calls. We're going to have a very sharp drop. I love it. If we can get silver down to these levels, it'll be like back the truck up because it'll be a very short lived window. It may only tag 40 for minutes or maybe even hours and rebound, right? That's what this chart is kind of pointing to. It's going to be a couple of big red bars and then it's probably going to bounce right back up into the 60 range. So this is what I'm keeping my eyes on for. It's a very short term opportunity to pick it up at a killer deal. And it would dip below that 50 level. I think there'll be a lot of margin calls in the silver space and it could be an opportunity. Some global equity washout or something that just everything gets thrown out. You certainly see that as a possibility. And again, very helpful chart. We don't usually talk about Bitcoin, but why the heck not? Today, I find it interesting that, let's see, Bitcoin got to about 120,000 and now it's down to 55,000 or whatever. And it's a lot, it's like a couple of zeros on top of silver, which went to 120 and now it's down to 55. Not identical charts, but hey, just for fun. What do you see there? Yeah, I mean, Bitcoin is clearly in a downtrend. The long-term moving average, like the 150 days sloping down, all the other moving averages are sloping down. It is in a bear market, right? We've seen that we've just seen this for quite some time and the charts don't look the greatest. Just based on, there's a few different levels we can look at, just based on this drop and this rebound using Fibonacci, it's saying, hey, we should see it. Let's grab a pen here. We've got the initial drop. We've got the bounce. Based on that, we should see it come to the 618. And if it finds support and bounces, we should see it drop to 100% measured move, which if we look at that is about $45,000 per Bitcoin. Just like silver. Again, it's a 20% haircut, right? 20 plus percent haircut. And so we're on the cusp of that. It actually looks like a pretty straightforward downward trend. It's a bear market. It's bouncing on Fibonacci levels. It's starting to give way today. In fact, Bitcoin's down like 3.6% today and everything else is kind of positive. There is no love in the Bitcoin space. Everybody's moving to DRAM, ETF, and Micron. They all want all the other stuff and all this provides opportunity. You could potentially bet against Bitcoin falling pricing here and the odds are it's going lower at this point. Well, and back in the day, that used to kind of be correlated with the NASDAQ. It's not anymore, it seems. Yeah, it's disconnected for sure. In line with the earlier discussion, what could cause a global margin call and wipe out would be some straight down move in the equity markets caused by some unforeseen event. So let's wrap up with that, Chris. Pick whichever you want to use, the Q's for the NASDAQ or S&P. Sure, I'll pull up the QQQ, yeah. So the QQQ, and this is the same with the S&P 500. This type of volatility in the market internals that we have of money flowing and money's rotating between mega caps one day and then micro caps the next day, they're going to risk on small caps and technology and all that stuff one day. And the next day they're going into dividend stocks and utilities. We're seeing just money sloshed back and forth. And we're seeing that in the volatility. We're seeing that here. It's actually very similar. This box right here is the same type of what we saw over here. So the big question for the stock market right now is like, is the market stalling out and has it kind of lost its mojo for a while? Or is this a pause and we're going to see it pop and have another huge euphoric move up? The NASDAQ, the QQQ is actually pointing to about a 20% move if it resolves to the upside. So we got this rally up, we got this pullback and it is showing us that we could see the Q's rally up to about $879 per ounce, which is about a 20% move. So there is potential for us to see one more AI small cap euphoric pop and rally in the stock market. And it's on the cusp of that. The flip side of that is the market really doesn't know what it wants to do. It actually has mixed signals. And is it going to break down and sell off? Or is it going to stall out over time like it did over here? Like we saw the market trade sideways for months. I mean, it went sideways for like four or five months very easily and then kind of lost some of its traction and had a reset. So that's kind of where we're at. We liquidated our S&P 500 and our QQQ positions. We've stepped aside because right now the market doesn't know where it wants to go. If we look at it from like a trending perspective, like the S&P 500, the right hand side chart is kind of the lens and the health of what we look at in the market. So it starts to become very ugly, unhealthy, and it starts to bleed out. And that's when we have these trend reversals on the left chart, which is our trend signal. The market has been giving choppy signals. We pulled off some profits near the peak and we scaled out as it moved up. And now we're just waiting. Is it going to give us a new buy signal for a leg up or is it going to roll over? And when we look at the right side here, we got orange bars. This is telling us the market is weak. It's kind of sick and it doesn't mean it's going to go down. It just means it's digesting the recent move. There's waves of profit taking. We keep seeing, even on the intraday charts, I think we see this, we go to the futures and look at the 10 minute chart. Take a look at the QQQ and what's been happening on the major index here. We have seen some huge bouts. The market opens up and we see just a huge drop with massive volume. And we keep seeing these big bouts of selling at the close or right at the open. Huge, huge volume. And then the market is very resilient right now. Every dip is people are just piling back in and they drive it back up. So there is distribution selling. There is big money rotating out of this market, but there's enough people in there just gobbling it right back up saying, hey, it's a dip. I'm getting in. So the market's strong because of that. It's very resilient at this phase. That's about it. You want to do one of those Fibonacci deals on the QQQs just for the sake of something to watch? Yeah. I mean, the key level here, as I pointed out, it looks like we've got about a 20% upside. So we're looking for... This is the NASDAQ. Let me just go to the QQQ because that's what most people trade here. If we go here... Yeah, if it were to roll over too, Chris. Pardon? If it were to roll over, what would the downside be on a Fibonacci? Yeah. So yeah, good point. So I think right here, if the market starts to break these highs, if it obviously starts to break to new highs, obviously there's no overhead resistance. The market has reset. It's starting to go higher and you should be looking for $8.79. On the flip side, if it starts to break down through these levels, if it starts to break down below these levels here, we can use a Fibonacci retracement. And this is saying, based on the strength of this rally, it's going to say, well, the market is going to want to pull back into these sweet spots. The sweet spot is typically the 38% to 50% retracement of that move, which, I mean, really isn't all that far down. It's about a 7% to 10% move to the downside. The big question is, is it just a small, healthy correction or is it something deeper that actually creates a big sell-off? But overall, that's kind of the downside potential. If it comes down into this lower zone around $6.50, $6.75, if it builds a little bottom there and starts to turn back up, I mean, the market is most likely going to work its way up and head up into the mid $800s again. So I think the key threshold is, is it going to break to new highs? If so, it's got a lot of upside potential. If it breaks these lows that we've seen from a few weeks ago, then look for it to pull back. Again, we're still in an overall bull market. And so a lot of people say like, oh, if it starts to break down, I'm going to buy an inverse ETF. The problem is there's very, in most cases, there's very little downside, you know, 4% or 5% downside with an inverse ETF. In a bull market, those downside moves happen usually in a day or two, that drop, and then it just turns around and starts to go higher. So it's always best to go and look at the long-term picture. This is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. We want to know like, hey, when we started a new bull market, you know, overall, you don't want to be shorting the market. There are these little resets along the way, but we are still in a bull market phase. So don't, if anybody's looking to try and short a pullback, I wouldn't be shorting it. I would be waiting for it to find a bottom, turn around, and then when it starts to move higher, you jump back in for the next leg up. Yeah. I think a big problem is trying to profit from falling markets when we're in an underlying bull market is a very difficult trade, and it's just a lot of wasted time and energy. Yeah. Now, especially like, you know, we were talking earlier, money supply keeps growing, that money goes someplace, that stock market just keeps on chugging higher. Yeah. It'll help the metals at some point too, for sure. Chris, thank you. It's always fascinating to visit with you. This episode, particularly helpful as we enter a pretty volatile month of July. So thanks for all your help. Yeah, you're welcome. Anytime. And from all of us at Sprott Money, SprottMoney.com, thanks for your time for watching. But keep an eye on this channel. The month of July is going to be pretty busy at Sprott Money. Lots of good content to come. Hit the like or the subscribe button so you don't miss any of it. And we'll look forward to visiting with you again sometime soon. But for now, we'll sign off. Thanks for watching and more to come as the month of July begins to unfold.