Silver rocketed from 50 dollars to 120, then dropped back to 60, and while headlines call it over, JP Morgan just grabbed 21 million ounces of physical silver in six weeks, for the first time ever going long on both metal and paper. I sit down with Micah Haines from Noble Gold to break down why the big banks are buying while everyday investors panic sell, and why this pullback may be the best buying window of the cycle.
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The video analyzes the volatility of silver and gold, arguing that current price dips are strategic buying opportunities. Despite short-term fluctuations and institutional manipulation of \"paper\" markets, strong physical fundamentals—including silver deficits and high industrial demand—support a long-term bullish outlook as a hedge against systemic economic collapse.
Silver did something that should never happen in a healthy market.
It rocketed from $50 an ounce to $120 in about 12 weeks.
Then it gave almost half of that back, dropping to $60.
And if all you do is glance at a headline, you'd think that the run was over.
You'd think it's time to get out.
Here's what those headlines aren't telling you.
While retail investors are panicking and dumping their positions,
JP Morgan, the largest holder of physical silver on earth,
And for the first time in history, they're long on both physical and paper silver.
So think about that.
The biggest player in this market is buying with both hands at the same exact time,
the moment that everyone else is running for the exit.
My guest today has been tracking exactly this kind of move for years,
where the manipulation is happening and where the real money is actually going.
His name is Micah Haynes.
He works directly with everyday families at Noble Gold,
walking them personally through physical gold and silver.
I'm not talking about paper products or ETFs, but the actual metal in your hands.
I mean, personally.
So Micah gives out his own email address to clients in this interview.
When my own mother was moving her IRA and her custodian dragged their feet
on the rollover for almost two months,
his team was right there with her until they got it done.
So he watches the COT report.
It's a commission of traders' data that shows you what the big banks and hedge funds
are actually positioned for, not what they're saying on TV.
He's walked clients through every twist of the market,
the highs, the corrections, and all of it.
And he's still saying the same thing that he was back in January.
The fundamentals never changed.
Only the sentiment did.
So in this interview, you're going to find out why Micah thinks this pullback
from $120k to $60k isn't a warning sign.
It's the best buying window of the entire cycle.
You're going to hear exactly why JP Morgan is quietly stockpiling
millions of ounces of physical silver,
while everyday investors are being shaken out of their positions.
And we're going to look at something the US Mint just is raising a lot of eyebrows,
pricing a commemorative gold coin at nearly five times today's spot price
right before this 4th of July weekend.
Once you see what the institutions are actually doing with their own money
versus what they're telling you to do with yours,
you're going to have a better judgment for yourself and your family.
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All right, let's go ahead and get into it with my guest today, Micah Haynes.
Micah, man, it's good to have you back on.
It's been a little while,
but I'm just looking forward to digging into some things with you.
So thanks for being here with us today.
Yeah, thanks for having me on, Seth.
It's always a pleasure.
And, you know, lots of ground to cover.
Honestly, it's been kind of a protracted five, six months
since the peaks that we saw in gold and silver back in January.
We'll obviously get into it.
But I think that these are normal,
consolidated periods lasting longer than what I even thought.
But that's what a market does,
is it tests your patience, your conviction, your faith.
And I think we're still actually seeing some positive stuff
the last few days, and we can get right into that.
So thanks again for having me on.
Yeah, of course.
Yeah, I think that's kind of what the point of this show is today,
is just to look at where things are at,
because it's been a roller coaster, right?
It was exciting, especially second half of last year.
It really started taking off around Christmas, New Year's.
You saw these record highs.
Then we've seen this pullback, consolidation, pullback.
And so I think it's just a question I'm having is like,
okay, I haven't lost my faith in silver.
You know what I mean?
It's like, okay, I'm still kind of...
I've never been looking at silver as this kind of short-term thing.
Hang on, I'll buy it and double it and sell it, right?
It's just kind of...
It's a fundamental belief, right?
But I want to understand better just the mechanisms
and what you're seeing.
And so we'll start with...
I'll pull up just the silver price, which I've got right now,
which is just over 60 bucks an ounce.
Yeah, we did see it.
We saw a bump kind of...
We were down into around 58, 57.
And we saw a little bit of a spike as things...
Market opened up.
We're hovering in the low 60s.
If we look at, say, the sixth month, right?
That's where we're kind of looking.
Okay, yeah, we hit these peaks, nearing 120 back in January.
Then we saw that sharp, sharp drop, right?
Like the kind of historic drop.
Yeah, five sigma events, the most unnatural and those things.
Now, look at the one year, Seth,
because I just want to kind of put things into context.
I think zooming out helps a lot.
So yeah, if we look from a year ago,
of course, looking at the six-month chart,
we've dropped from 120 to $60, 50% retracement.
But from a year ago, Seth, we're actually up over 100%.
We had $30 silver this time last year.
Now, silver does have that tendency to go sideways
within a price range for a very long time.
And then it can shoot out of that price range
and do a two, three, four times move.
But then what you expect is that it has to give up
some of that big gain to then retest old breakout levels
and resistance levels as new floors and support.
And then it can go sideways in a range again,
but at a much higher price.
And so it's basically doing that now.
It's creating a big floor in the 60s,
whereas before it was a big floor in the 30s.
Now, to go from 30 to 120 back to 60,
I like to kind of put it into perspective.
If I had told my investors this time last year
that you were going to be sitting on the double
within 12 months, they would have been extremely happy.
Now, if you had no contact to news or X
or the media or anything,
and you hadn't known that we were actually at 120
before having to retest the 60 zone,
you'd be ecstatic, right?
To go from 30 to 60, you'd be pumped.
But you're obviously not super stoked about the idea
of having been to 120 and then having to retrace.
There've been a number of factors
and obviously kind of unexpected market events,
like the new Fed chair who came out very hawkish,
Kevin Warsh at his first FOMC meeting.
You've had the war in Iran that's obviously spiked the dollar
and oil prices and things like that,
and inflation expectation.
And that's just made it a harder environment to trade.
But like you said, Seth, like gold and silver,
physical precious metals are not a trade.
They're a long-term hedge and a long-term asset
that should be seen primarily as a safe haven asset.
Yes, you do get paid to own the right types of assets
in the right environment.
And I would say to you that none of the fundamentals
have changed over the last six months.
Of course, price has been very volatile
and it's fluctuated a lot,
but silver shortages and minor output
being at 10, 15-year lows
and industrial demand being at all-time highs
and being in the sixth year of a silver deficit
to the tune of hundreds of millions of ounces.
None of that stuff has changed.
It's certainly not part of the narrative
now that price is down.
But back in January,
these were all the reasons why it couldn't go down.
And as far as sentiment being one of my favorite indicators
and a contrarian indicator,
you kind of want to go with the opposite way of the street.
And so, again, in January,
silver couldn't go down,
the shorts were dead,
the banks couldn't hold it back
and all these various things.
In hindsight, obviously,
that was a very good top indicator,
at least short-term top indicator.
Now it's as though silver is never going to go back up.
It's probably got to retest 50
and all these types of things.
And I think that the sentiment being at an absolute low
is actually probably the best contrarian setup for us
to see a rally out of here.
I'll say a few things.
I expect new all-time highs in both metals.
I do actually think that's happening
before the end of the year.
Seasonally, and if you overlay price data,
50 years worth of price data over top of each other,
June, and I know we're at the 1st of July today,
but June actually happens to be
the worst month of the year for gold and silver prices.
And often it marks a significant low
for the rest of the year too.
Now that doesn't mean that we couldn't see
a little bit lower gold and silver prices from here,
but I would say that the downside risk
versus the upside risk is an asymmetrical bet,
one that's worth taking.
And to elaborate on that just a little bit here,
you know that in October,
we hit 50 for the first time in 14 years.
We had never ever had a silver price
that was north of 50.
And so 50 prior to October was like the ultimate boss.
It was actually a huge, what's called a resistance level,
basically a big ceiling on the price.
Well, when we broke through that,
it didn't take long, about 10, 12 weeks
for us to go from about $50 to $120.
Now, in technical analysis,
when you have a price ceiling,
you want to break through it
and then retest it as a floor
before you go on to make new higher highs
and put in new resistance.
Well, we had a gap between 50 and 120
and all the levels in between 60, 70, 80, 90, 100.
Those hadn't really been retested.
So we've spent a lot of the last six months
churning within a consolidated zone,
which actually has been between 60 and 90.
We've had three attempts to break through 90.
We've had three attempts to break through 60.
On the fourth attempt,
which is just at the beginning of last week,
finally we lost the 60 handle.
And everyone was saying,
okay, we're going to have to go to 50 at that point.
Well, in my mind, a retest of 50
wouldn't actually be all that disappointing.
I actually think on a technical basis,
that may just need to be the previous ceiling
now being tested as major support
and as a really sturdy floor.
But again, we're already back into the 60s
as of this morning.
I think that the dip into the 50s
could be something that's called a false breakdown,
which actually is a very bullish setup.
And what a false breakdown is,
is kind of a head fake.
It means that you're losing a particular support level.
Everyone's getting bearish
and thinking it has to go to the next one,
which would be 50 from here.
But we never really got that close.
I think it was 56.50 at one point,
but really only for a few hours
before it got back up into the higher 50s.
And now again, we're back into 60.
So all of this to say,
pullbacks within a structural bull
are very normal,
whether it was 71 to 80 or 2001 to 2011,
both gold and silver had 30 to 50% pullbacks along the way.
These are necessary flushes of price and momentum
and technical resetting and testing old breakout zones
and also resetting sentiment.
And then once you've done that,
we have accomplished all those things
over the last six months, Seth.
We now have the fuel to be able to
put in another big rally.
And we normally see those in the fall.
Obviously, I think be no exception with midterms
and other big geopolitical things
kind of on the radar screen as well.
So I think that it's a good as time as any to buy.
Again, you're not buying it as a trade.
You don't wanna buy it to hold it for a couple months
or a couple of weeks.
We suggest that your minimum hold period
should be a couple of years.
And I'm still looking for much higher gold
and silver prices into 2030.
I think that that'll be kind of in and around
the end of this cycle.
Now it could be a year or two on either side of that.
We have to see how things go.
And of course, we don't have crystal balls.
So you need to buy it knowing that it's actually
safety first, return second.
And a lot of our sales right now is all repeat and referral.
So the people who own it a lot lower
are actually adding quite a bit here,
which I think is constructive and positive to see as well.
I think there's a few things just to kind of overlay this
is because I first started moving money
into silver and gold
because I looked at it as a safe haven, right?
It's the same reason why I've got a whole room full of food,
right?
And ammo.
It's this idea that if there's a CBDC,
if there's a breakdown,
if anything that could happen,
that's the insurance policy.
That's the safety, right?
And that's my perspective on it.
But then looking at a few things,
I got a couple of things to show you.
One is this article right here.
JP Morgan is long on silver, right?
And this is just a couple of days old.
It says, for those of you who don't know,
JP Morgan is holding the world's largest stockpile
of physical silver,
having amassed over 750 million physical ounces.
Over the last six weeks alone,
JP Morgan has accumulated more than 21 million ounces.
This brings a few questions to mind.
How was JPM able to accumulate that much physical silver
in such a short period of time?
What funds did they use?
And why would they do this, right?
So this is really key, right?
This bold part here says,
this is the first time in history
that JP Morgan has been long
in both physical and paper silver.
And so if you look at, again,
it's kind of what are the banks doing?
What are the family offices doing?
JP Morgan right now, they're accumulating right now.
They're taking advantage of this price,
but they're not, obviously,
if they think, hey,
silver's going to drop back under 30
at the end of the year,
they're not going to quickly accumulate
21 million ounces, right?
They're looking at a heavy loss
if that's the case,
talking $100 million plus loss on that.
But something else kind of looking at is like,
okay, what is,
we look at this price action
and we look at,
we know that silver and gold
are both rigged in many ways.
They use the paper market
to flood the kind of supply demand issue
and make it so that,
oh, it feels very abundant.
And you see then the paper price drops
because they dump all these paper certificates
into the market.
And then so they can obviously use that
and basically think,
okay, JP Morgan quickly bought all this silver.
I wonder if they were also involved
to make sure the price went back down
because maybe they're planning a big buy
and like, okay, hey,
let's just kind of push things down,
push things down.
Okay, hey, we hit that floor,
scoop it all up.
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There's a little post
that someone put together on Twitter.
I want to just kind of read through this.
And so this is,
so German Swiss silver expert Jochen Steger
just laid out the true cause
of silver's savage collapse.
It says the metal fell off
from a January peak of 115 an ounce
all the way to 57.
That's a brutal 50% loss in a matter of months.
Yet Steger insists the fundamentals
have never looked stronger.
And the real story lies
in the desperate futures market games.
It says the manipulation mechanism,
huge institutions have piled
into massive short positions
on the Comex silver futures market.
Open interest now sits above 104,000 contracts,
which equals more than 50 million ounces on paper.
The whole Comex only holds around 326 ounces,
326 million ounces with roughly 86 million
available for actual trading.
These players are shorting themselves
deeper into trouble
just to stay afloat a little longer.
Continues the physical market
they can't control.
The world has suffered through eight straight years
of silver deficit.
They removed 1.3 billion ounces
from available stocks.
Industrial demand continues to surge
for solar power, electronics, defense, and more.
New mine supply cannot possibly close the gap fast enough,
even if everything goes perfectly.
And China has turned into an unstoppable buyer
while controlling 70%
of the world's silver refining capacity.
That goes the desperate bank play.
American banks have already racked up
$316 billion in unrealized losses this quarter.
They're using the futures market
to manage positions
and avoid even bigger disasters.
Steger warns this approach
is like trying to put a fire out with gasoline
and sets the stage for explosive moves.
The correct response right now says,
most retail investors buy at the top in excitement
and sell at the bottom in fear.
I couldn't agree more.
Says the winning move is to buy every dip
in smaller tranches
and hold physical metal tight.
Steger himself keeps adding to his silver stack daily
because he sees this drop as a gift.
And the bottom line,
that's him right there talking.
The bottom line, it says,
silver's plunge is nothing more
than a paper market illusion
created by institutions fighting for survival
while the physical world tightens
under relentless demand and Chinese accumulation.
The fundamentals scream for much higher prices
and the window to buy is wide open.
This is the sound of a manipulated market
beginning to crack under its own weight.
So what do you think about what this person said here?
Yeah, I couldn't agree more.
I think, again, the fundamentals are extremely strong.
They were in January
and no one would shut up about them.
And they still are now, but no one's talking about it.
And so that big sentiment indicator, I think, is key.
If the reasons for why it couldn't go down haven't changed,
then obviously it can still go up and it will.
But let's talk about JP Morgan.
You did point out in that first article,
they are actually the biggest holder of physical silver
from an institutional standpoint.
They hold the biggest silver position
and they have for years.
Actually, since they amalgamated with Chase
after the 08 financial crisis.
And so they stand to benefit from a much higher silver price,
but they actually did have record shorts this fall
going into the end of the year,
where we obviously saw that price shoot up from 50 to $120.
Now, you've heard this and I've heard this over the years
more times than I like to admit,
but the claim that if silver goes over a certain price,
the banks are going to explode
or they're going to have billions in losses
and they'll end up having to close their doors
or what have you.
Now, obviously, we saw the run in silver
and no bank blew up.
There was actually some money apparently provided
to JP Morgan at some point by the Fed
that people assumed or speculated
was to help them cover their short losses in silver.
But the key point, I think,
is that they probably got caught offside
with massive short positions during this incredible run.
And the fundamental structure or the fundamental pictures
for why gold and silver have to have
much, much, much higher prices in the future,
again, it hasn't changed.
So they realized, geez, we better do whatever we can
to flush price back down to where we can cover those shorts
and get rid of these losses.
And I think that's what's been happening, right?
So if you're a fiscal buyer, this should be a gift.
If you're a paper trader or an options trader
or a short-term day trader,
obviously, it's been very tough.
But like I said, the last six months,
we've been consolidating in this box of 60 to 90,
60 to 90, 60 to 90.
And we've done it a few times,
both up and down on either side of that.
That's not been a very helpful market for bulls
or for bears on the trading side, right?
Because if you think it's shooting through 90
and you wanna go long, you were disappointed.
But if you thought it was gonna break through 60
and have to go back to 50 or below,
you've also been frustrated
and haven't been making any money on the short side.
But institutions, I think, have been covering their shorts.
They obviously still hold a lot of physical.
And as that first article points out,
they've been buying it in a record level.
And I think they're taking it off of the COMEX.
And obviously, Western exchanges
have been hemorrhaging physical metal
to institutions and to the East.
And I'll just quickly note
that a recent piece of news out of China
is that they are instituting new paper trading rules
where they have 140% requirement for capital,
meaning you can't actually use margin
to trade or to trade paper gold like you used to.
And essentially, having these higher margin prices
or these higher margin requirements
is meant to actually impose restrictions
on the paper side of the market.
Again, owning physical gold and silver like we sell,
you have nothing to worry about on a long enough timeframe.
You'll do extremely well.
But the paper side of the market, as you know,
is how they end up being able to manipulate the metals price
by selling hundreds of times more metal
than they actually have on paper.
And I've used this analogy on your show before, Seth.
If you could sell your home 300 times
to drive down the average price
of all the homes on your street,
you would obviously be convicted of some type of fraud.
Let's not forget people at J.P. Morgan
have actually gone to jail.
They were criminally convicted of silver spoofing
back in the 2011 talk that we saw on silver.
And so let's not pretend that
these aren't criminal fraudulent actions.
They do happen.
It's just that obviously these institutions get away
with being able to do it and a lot more.
So I would say, yeah, fundamentals of the market
are still extremely strong.
For all the reasons mentioned in that Stagler's tweet,
I think that we actually do see new all-time highs
again in the medium term.
It's the short term.
I always say to people, look,
I can tell you on a long enough time horizon,
you're gonna do extremely well here,
but it's not the money that we'll make in gold and silver.
It's the money that you'll keep.
That's the most important part
about physical precious metals.
But again, there's a time where they are
the best performing asset and the safest.
And we've seen that over the last couple of years,
barring the last six months, of course, with this correction.
So I think that institutions are covering shorts,
they're abandoning their paper positions
that they know were big losers.
If we do end up seeing another big vicious spike in silver,
they do not wanna be caught offside again.
They wanna be able to have their long positions,
which of course they do, so that they benefit from that.
And again, with China implementing
these kind of paper trading restrictions,
I think that that's a positive sign
to kind of eliminate the suppression aspect,
but we won't probably see any improvements
in that regard in the West for some time,
because I think that they'll try to keep it down
as long as they can or until it makes sense.
There's something that I track,
and I haven't done it in the last few weeks,
but it's called the COT Report or C-O-T,
the Commission of Traders Report,
and it's released every Friday.
And the C-O-T or the COT Report
tells you all these various banks and hedge funds
and what their net positioning is
in terms of their longs and shorts.
And so they're never always just long
or always just short.
They usually have positions of both,
but their net positioning,
whether it's they have 10,000 contracts that are long
and 5,000 contracts that are short
means that they're net long 5,000 contracts.
So when you look at net positioning,
it's often a pretty big indicator
as to what happens next in the market
because of the manipulation and the suppression.
They want to be in charge of the situation.
And what I'm looking for is that report
that shows that they're actually finally net long again.
And I think that that'll mean
that they're going to really let the gas
get pressed down to the floor
in terms of silver price
without having to hit the brakes at all.
So they just don't want to get caught
like they did in the fall,
and they've been covering that over the last six months.
That's just another reason why I think we're here.
Well, you mentioned you use the analogy
of trying to sell your house 100 times over.
Well, I pulled up usdebtclock.org where they track.
And so it's roughly right now,
it's paper silver is at almost 400 to one
and paper gold being at almost 150 to one,
which also shows you why,
I think this is one indicator
as to a lot of other indicators
as to why you'll see paper has a lot more swing to it.
Because gold kind of spiked up to,
it didn't spike up to say 5,500
and then drop back down to 2,750, right?
Gold still, last I checked,
let's see where's gold at.
So it's still above 4,000, right?
So the swing is a lot less,
but you can also see it's okay.
Well, if the paper markets
are one of the key things that they use
to manipulate these prices,
you can see they've gotten almost triple, right?
More than double the amount of paper silver on the market
as they do paper gold.
And so it becomes much more easier to manipulate.
And this little simple graphic,
kind of cheesy looking,
I'll just kind of look at the website,
but this right here illustrates this is it.
This is the problem.
We still have an insane amount of paper silver
that's out there.
And I think a lot of people,
especially during the beginning of the year
when you saw that a lot of the bigger banks
and the bullion banks
were having difficulty delivering,
like at that point,
people were trying to exit their paper positions
and trying to get ahold of physical.
But once that ends,
they forget about it
and they go back into paper again, right?
So you don't see that people are really wising up
to what's happening here.
Yeah, I would say a few things.
I think that the trend of people realizing
that they have owned the paper representation
of gold and silver in their portfolios,
and when they finally realize
that it's actually the time to own the actual commodity,
you don't wanna own a picture of a gun, right?
You can't protect yourself with that.
You need to own the actual gun.
You can't expect that you'll be protected
in the way that gold and silver can save you
from a dollar collapse or banking collapse
or any kind of financial crisis
by not owning the actual commodity.
So the trend of actually switching SLV positions
to physical silver positions,
we're still seeing a lot of that.
I would say a lot of investors,
retail investors who years ago had a hunch
that gold and silver would start doing well,
but their typical financial advisor
doesn't sell physical bullion like we do,
nor do they recommend it.
My quip on that is you never go to a Chevy dealer asking
what kind of Ford you should buy, right?
So when people go to their financial advisors and say,
hey, I think I need a little bit of gold and silver,
they go, fantastic, no problem.
We can get you into the ETFs.
That's a great way to hold it.
Well, it's not, not long-term.
You have exposure to the price action,
but again, you can't do anything
with the paper representation of the asset.
You can't power a solar panel.
You can't put it in anything
that actually requires the commodity itself.
And we as individual investors
require ownership of the commodity itself.
And so that trend is still happening,
but I think that it'll probably accelerate again
once price starts to move.
But what I'd say is essentially,
again, the whole silver shortage,
all banks can't deliver and dealers,
we did end up having like in January,
there was a blitz of physical buying,
a blitz of physical demand.
And through the years we've seen these,
it comes and goes in waves.
When we had that, yeah, we were running low.
We never ran out, right?
And I always said like, hey,
I don't see an actual shortage happening at any time,
but if this kind of buying pressure persists,
we can certainly see reduced inventory,
longer timeframes for delivery, those types of things.
And also the spreads between different sizes
and different coins.
So 100 ounce bars, normally the most cost effective,
then you've got kilos and 10 ounce bars
and one ounce rounds or one ounce coins.
And you could often see during these big,
intense buying blitzes as I call them,
a dollar each between the price per ounce
from each size increment.
Right now, it's a matter of pennies,
like a one ounce round versus a 100 ounce bar.
I think this morning on the trades that I placed,
it's like a 35 cent difference.
Well, those premiums or those spreads
between the different size blend items,
they blow out during these mad dashes for physical metal,
but all the calls that we were running out
and there wasn't enough and all that stuff,
you just, you never heard an end to that.
And again, now no one's talking about it.
Our inventories are fantastic.
They always were, we never ran out,
but this is a great time to buy
because of that collapse in the premiums
because the buying pressure has now cooled off.
And like I said, seasonally, that's normal.
June often marks the best,
June, July often mark the best months to buy,
but this shift to physical assets,
we see it happening all over the world
and the strategic geopolitical focus
on strategic resources,
whether it was Venezuela and the oil there
or Iran and the oil there,
the South Americas with various copper deposits
and different metals and stuff like that.
I think that we're gonna continue to see that
at a sovereign level.
I think the world is shifting
from a world of intangibles to a world of tangibles.
And I think too, like in investing,
you have things that come and go trend-wise.
So the last 30 years have been dominated
by financial assets, right?
Stocks have done incredibly well since 2001.
The commodity space has actually been under-invested
and undervalued, and that includes precious metals,
but it of course includes a lot of other things
like copper and lumber and battery metals
and other things, wheat, exactly.
And I think where we're going
with a continuation of the collapse
of the value of the dollar
and not just the US dollar,
but of fiat currencies in general all over the world
is that things that you can put your hands on
and physical commodities will dominate
the investing landscape for the next 10, 20, 30 years, right?
So it comes and goes,
but we're just at the beginning of this.
And I think the primary beneficiaries
will be the monetary metals.
Yeah, I think it's similar to looking at,
if you're looking at this at larger cycles,
that I think we are moving back
from this fake back into real,
because it's kind of what happens,
you look at this, there's a natural balance.
I think it's how God created the universe, right?
There's a balance between everything.
And you oftentimes move to one extreme
and it snaps back and it pulls back to the other extreme.
And so I think that if we look at really going
since 2000, the internet, exciting, right?
Social media, exciting, email, exciting, right?
You don't have a real physical paper in your hand.
It's just as digital representation of it, right?
And so you saw this huge boom
and then you get into AI.
There's all this excitement about AI,
this artificial intelligence.
But I think that what you're seeing,
especially with younger generations
is they're rejecting it, right?
It's actually interesting looking at it.
The younger generations are rejecting AI.
You would have thought,
oh, the younger generation is always the more advanced
and the more technical.
They like the new gadgets.
They like the new stuff.
But you're seeing a very opposite trend
of people that want to go back to what's real.
And I think that that's kind of what's happening
just culturally with kind of the overall
kind of consciousness of people
is that they've been pushing fake, fake, fake, fake, fake.
And now you go online, is it a bot?
Is it a real person?
Is this Instagram health influencer I follow?
Is it even a real person?
Or is it some fat dude in Somalia
that is using AI to create some beautiful young blonde
that you think has a crush on you, right?
So I think that you're seeing the same thing
is that with this, it's like, this is real, right?
Like this is actual real, this is real money.
And that's what kind of brings it back to me
is that I look at that and I look at like,
oh gosh, silver's down to from 70 to 65 or whatever it is.
It's like, okay, but it is still real.
And that's the thing is that when they tell us
you own nothing and be happy, I think, yeah,
anything that they've convinced us to trade real for fake,
paper this, paper that, digital this,
at a certain point, those things get cut off, right?
They own that paper, they control that paper.
And it's just like they control the digits
on your banking app.
You log in like, oh, I've got a million dollars
in my bank account.
Well, until it gets converted into some sort of,
you know, digital token, because they're saying,
oh yeah, the old banking system is failing.
And so we're going to convert it to these new,
you know, centralized banking system.
And so that's the thing is that it's just this.
And it's this whole problem, crisis, react solution.
So like if they want to get us on some kind of
social credit score, CBDC system,
they have to have some kind of major, you know,
financial crisis to be able to make that shift,
just like they wanted to vaccinate all of us
when they need to create a big, you know,
planned global pandemic in order to do that,
to again, create the problem that allows them
to introduce the solution.
But a couple of comments on what you said.
So tangibles are actually the secret source
to dynastic wealth.
And in history, there are three asset classes
that find family dynasties.
So, you know, that have intergenerational wealth
consistently managed and consistently there
holding its value through centuries.
And there's three main asset classes
that achieve dynastic wealth and it's real estate,
fine art and precious metals.
And it's because whatever the currency is at the time,
obviously we measure things by putting a dollar value
to them, but you have to remember that currencies
actually have cycles as well.
Currencies do get reset.
It does take a long time for those to play out.
Although I'd say we're closer to the end
of this currency cycle than the beginning.
And so whatever we end up with, whether it is a CBDC
or it's a new gold back currency
or whatever the case may be,
of course there's a lot of speculation about that now
with the 4th of July coming up
and maybe we'll talk about that in just a sec here.
But whatever the new currency is,
your hard assets, your home, your property,
your land, your gold, your silver, your fine art
always gets repriced in that next currency
at much higher valuations.
If you just have ink on a page or digits on a screen
and just intangible assets that are dollar denominated,
well, if the dollar goes away,
there's nothing there behind it
that you can knock on, that you can touch,
that survives that currency transition.
And in terms of what potential catalysts are
for a big financial correction or crisis
that allows this problem crisis solution thing
to be kicked off,
I think it's actually going to be the popping
of the AI bubble.
And I'm happy you talked about that.
And I actually agree with the comment
that millennials are actually
some of the most skeptical people of it
because it's actually going to hurt them the most.
You look at job prospects for 20 year olds
or people coming out of college
or any kind of post-secondary institution now
and it's like the bleakest situation you've ever had, right?
I don't think it makes sense to go and do a law degree
or get your MBA or any of those things
that used to set you up
for a pretty solid white collar job.
I think actually that stuff's the most at risk
and this generation is definitely feeling it.
So they're the most afraid of where this could go.
But AI, I think right now
with the amount of money that's flowed into it,
the amount of hype and mania we have around it,
it's very reminiscent of the dot-com bubble,
which in essence, it's not that the internet
didn't change the world, of course it did.
And I think it actually changed the way
that we live and work
more significantly than was ever anticipated.
But what happens is that in a very short time period,
as the bubble is beginning to inflate,
all of these earnings and all of these things
that they think they're going to achieve
get riced into an extremely truncated timeline.
And in 1990s, 7, 8, 9, 2000,
again, dot-com stocks were just overpriced and overhyped
because it didn't change the world in 2001.
It probably took until 05, 06, 07
before everyone's really up on email,
everyone's got a smartphone,
everyone's doing online business.
And so with AI, I think it's similar.
I think they're overbuilding these data centers.
They're factoring way too much earnings.
The uptake is actually very little.
The amount of revenue that businesses are seeing
come from these implementations of AI
is very little overall.
And it's like we're spending way more money on it
than it's ever going to bring back
in a short enough time period.
So I think we could see something similar
to the dot-com bubble
where like the NASDAQ crashed by 85% in 2001,
and it never got back to that pre-crash level until 2013.
So it took 12 years to pull out of
the tech stock bear market.
I think that we're very likely
going to see a similar size crash.
Let's call it 50 plus percent.
I don't wanna say it's 85,
but I can't tell you when though, Seth.
That's the big thing is I can't tell you when.
It could be a year away.
It could be two years away.
I obviously think there's a political incentive
to keeping markets propped up
and liquid obviously until at least after midterms.
And my kind of working theory is at some point in 2027,
we'll end up seeing a pretty significant
stock market crash.
And I think that is the first domino to fall.
The amount of leverage in the system,
the malinvestment that's occurred.
I think that when the AI bubble pops,
it'll be like a dot-com,
but almost kind of like the decline
in the value of tech stocks will be like a 2001,
like an 85 plus percent,
but then it'll be like a 2008 GFC or a 1929
where it just ripples across the world.
It's not just gonna be a US stock market crash
It's not just the housing market, right?
It's so much more.
And add housing to the bubble too, right?
We have the most expensive real estate in the world
and historically most expensive real estate market
ever here as well.
So it's kind of like an everything bubble,
but I think it's certainly led by AI.
And I think if you have one bubble pop
and one domino that falls
and then they all start to fall
and the banks start to fall,
then you have this, well,
what's the government gonna do?
They're gonna rush in, print a bunch of money,
lower rates.
And that's what I kind of refer to
as like the next big print.
We saw one in 08.
We saw one in 2020 during the COVID lockdowns.
The next big print will only occur
once this bubble pops and the correction occurs.
And it's on the other side of that
that we probably end up with a failure of the currency
and then a transition to some new type of system.
Now I would prefer obviously to return to a gold standard,
but I think it could easily be CBDCs
or maybe some kind of digital gold standard, who knows.
But the point is all roads lead to
your wealth needing to be in gold and silver,
at least a certain amount of it
so that you've got that insurance.
And I think obviously
this is gonna take a while to play out.
I don't have a crystal ball.
I like to have a little bit of a roadmap in mind.
I've shared that with you guys here,
but we'll see how close we can get to that.
I obviously don't hope for the worst.
I actually hope for the best,
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We know that every time you check the news,
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There's been a lot of interesting speculation about gold going to $15,000 to $20,000.
Not just people saying,
Oh, I think it's going to happen.
But here's a post from Josh Phillip-Ferrer,
who owns a pretty significant mint, Scottsdale Mint.
And he's saying that there's major bets on $15,000 gold.
I'm seeing this.
They're saying,
Open interest in December, $15,000 to $20,000 COMEX call spreads
hold near 11,000 contracts, even after gold's pullback.
He says,
Meanwhile, some investors are being shaken out of their physical gold and silver.
So you've got that happening with these call spreads that are
placing calls on $15,000, $20,000 gold in the COMEX.
But then simultaneously, it's also strange that this has kind of come out.
So the U.S. Mint, I'm not sure if you've seen this.
So this is the U.S. Mint as they're coming soon.
So obviously, these are commemoratives.
There's going to be a premium for that.
But we're looking at, for a freedom-wringing,
these Liberty Bell one-ounce gold coin, as they're calling them, it's $19,000.
The one-ounce silver is $750.
This is from the U.S. Mint.
These are coming soon.
So here's a post kind of talking about this.
It says,
The signs are everywhere.
The U.S. Mint is selling one-ounce gold at $19,600, half-ounce at $10,050,
and half-ounce silver metal at $750.
He says,
It's not because the metal is worth that much by weight alone.
They're limited-edition, collectible products with premiums.
But there's one thing that's hard to ignore.
Governments are still minting gold and silver while the world piles on more debt.
When confidence in fiat starts to crack,
people have historically turned back to tangible assets.
So as we talked about, when confidence in fiat starts to crack,
people have historically turned back to tangible assets.
Exactly what we're talking about.
When the fake, confidence in fake disappears, people want real.
So he says,
If you've been paying attention to central banks buying record amounts of gold,
you already know why.
Know what you hold.
So anyway, what are your thoughts on this when you see this information?
Yeah, for sure.
And I would say, obviously, connecting those two dots,
and there was speculation about the U.S. Mint maybe front-running the administration's
announcement that they're repricing gold proactively.
And of course, I don't believe that that'll happen.
I'll get into why.
But when you have the U.S. Mint declaring one ounce gold,
even though they're commemorative coins, of course, they're more expensive,
like proofs and stuff like that.
But not $20,000 expensive.
Not five times the current price.
It's really hard to justify.
And at $1,500 an ounce silver, we're talking 30 times the price.
And so it's very difficult to justify how that's possible.
I would say that on top of the calls that are being made for futures contracts for that
$15,000 to $20,000 silver price into, sorry, gold price into December.
And I've seen those similar calls being made or bets being made in silver for silver at
around $900.
And there's been a lot of speculation and talk about this on Axe and other platforms
over the last few months.
Someone is betting tens of millions of dollars on a gold price that's five times higher the
current value in the next six months.
And so, you know, maybe it's a billionaire with a gambling problem and they don't really
care because they've got money to burn.
But I have the kind of feeling that not even a billionaire would actually waste tens of
millions of dollars on such an extraordinarily high call for gold in such a short period
of time.
It wouldn't shock me if someone from within the administration was in the know and had
kind of the inside scoop about some plan to introduce a gold-backed bond or to revalue
gold and silver.
And they're actually kind of, again, insider trading or playing on that inside information.
And maybe they are placing these huge multimillion dollar bets on much higher gold and silver.
So I think when you take the U.S. mint price and then this, you know, insider stuff and
these bets that are being made, it definitely adds fuel to the conspiracy fire or the theory
that maybe something will happen.
Everyone's been saying for the 4th of July.
So just this Saturday that there will be a proactive revaluation of gold and silver.
Now, obviously, the reason for that is we own the most on paper of any country, although
I don't think that's actually true.
We've got 8,100 tons.
China's in number two at 2,500 tons.
At 8,100 tons, if we revalue gold just to the current market price of 4,000, we generate
$1 trillion of net new cash in the gold revaluation account.
And there's actually an account at the Treasury.
I think we've talked about this before that exists and has since the 30s when they reprice
gold after the confiscation.
When you do that, it creates, because you're not selling it, it just creates new money
in this gold revaluation account.
So we're $39 trillion in debt.
If we reprice gold or market to market at 4,000 an ounce, we create $1 trillion in net
new cash.
That hardly makes a dent.
But let's say Trump wanted to, you know, throw $5 trillion at the national debt or some kind
of anniversary dividend to citizens, or maybe he wants to, who knows, they can do whatever
they want.
But if they reprice gold at $20,000 an ounce, that's five times higher.
That's $5 trillion in the gold revaluation account, which is a significant sum of money
to come up with without having to raise taxes or cut spending.
And he's obviously talked about going into a new golden era of America, a lot of thematic
stuff with his gold tie and lighting up the White House in gold on the outside.
And so the speculation is that he's going to do this.
My opinion is that there's almost no chance that it happens.
And the reasons are when the bubble pops in AI and in housing and in everything else,
the government needs to be unshackled from any kind of gold standard so that they can
freely print money in order to bail the system out.
And I will bet everything I have that that is exactly how they'll respond.
That's the only way that they can.
It's the only two tools that they have are to lower rates and to print money in any kind
of financial or economic crisis.
And knowing like if we know that AI has got a solid chance of correcting and that we could
end up with some kind of recession or global recession, depression, smarter people in the
White House and on the economic side of his advisory team, they know that too.
They will not return to some kind of gold standard prior to the biggest crash or biggest
recession in a generation.
They need the tools of money printing and lowering rates to be able to bail that boat
out or otherwise they'll probably have the biggest depression of all time on their hands.
And maybe that would be good because it would reset the system.
I'm obviously a sound money advocate, Seth.
I just don't see not just this government, but any government hamstringing themselves
or handcuffing themselves to a gold standard prior to a big economic crisis.
And so this 4th of July, I hope I'm I'd love to be wrong on this.
And that's because you and I own enough gold and silver.
We're happy campers and all of our clients will be very happy campers.
Now, my saying on this is all roads lead to gold, eventually getting to those types of
prices.
But organically, I still think we need 2, 3, 4, 5 years.
We need the crisis to happen.
We need the big print to happen on the other side of that is where we'll see those types
of prices and maybe even higher.
But in the short term, I don't think it's that realistic.
But it's certainly interesting to see that someone's betting that kind of money on these
higher prices in the short, short term.
And this thing from the mid for sure.
So I give it maybe a 5 or 10% chance overall.
I hate to kind of throw cold water on it again.
I'd be happy for it to happen.
Happy to be wrong.
But we'll see.
Yeah, I think as we talked about, the key is that the fundamentals are still there.
Right.
When my when my wife asked me, the cost of silver is at 60.
We should we should sell.
Right.
I keep going down.
It's like the fundamentals are still there.
They're still printing paper.
They're manipulating the market.
And this is this is a long term strategy.
That's just how we look at it.
And there's a lot of there's a lot of peace in that.
It's like you kind of look at it's like, OK, here's where it is.
OK, here's it's it's OK.
But I mean, I think that right now is right now is a huge buying opportunity.
And look at JP Morgan.
We're getting 21 million ounces.
Right.
So if you can if you can get 21 ounces, go for it.
Right.
That's the time.
It is right now.
It's just it's hard to fight like emotions or the death of wealth.
Right.
It's like when you get too excited, it's probably a bad sign.
When you get really depressed, it's probably a good sign.
And so it's really hard to kind of override your natural wiring
and psychology of investing.
And if you can try to look at it from like a Warren Buffett perspective of,
you know, buying when there's blood in the street and buying when everyone's
in the dumps, I think that that's the way to look at it.
It's just very hard to do.
It's very counterintuitive.
But like I said, our clients are they're well informed.
They know what to expect.
We're looking at the long term.
It's not a trade.
They have been buying on mass over the last few months.
And of course, it's, again, been grinding in that kind of big band of 60 to 90.
I'm encouraged that we're starting Q2 silver slightly in the back in the 60s.
So we're still holding on to 4000.
These are key levels that I don't think will fail in the coming months.
I think the lows are probably close to getting in.
But let's say I'm wrong on that.
The worst case for silver, in my opinion, is it has to go and retest that 50
$10 of downside for what I think is eventually hundreds of dollars of upside.
I'm looking for and I've shared these targets like, again, 2030 being in and around my end
of cycle target, three to 500 in silver and 10,000 in gold.
Those are my expectations.
It's obviously lower than what these people are suggesting at the Mint or
these contracts that are being bought on the futures market.
But a $10,000 gold price, I think, is fairly conservative.
It doubled really from end of 2024 to beginning of 2026, right?
So it was like 13 months.
It went from 2600 to 5600.
I think it can double and a little bit over the next three, four, five years.
And I think that's super conservative.
And I'd be looking for a 20 to 1 or a 30 to 1 on the gold to silver ratio, something in
there.
And if you get to $10,000 gold, the 30 to 1 is $333 and 20 to 1 is $500.
And of course, there are analysts out there like Michael Oliver, who I really respect.
He was calling for $300 to $500 this year.
And I think that's obviously a very low probability call at this point.
But I do think he's right about having another huge rally through the fall.
That's why this big pullback and the dip in the seasonal lows and stuff like that should
be bought right now.
And then other analysts like David Hunter are calling for over $1,000 silver in the
early 2030s kind of coming out of this bust.
And the big print, like I'm suggesting, could happen as well.
So not to be sensationalistic about where the price could go, again, this is number
one, safety.
Number two, a way of holding your wealth in an asset class or in a format that's outside
of all the biggest risks right now, which are certainly markets, the banks, the dollar.
And yeah, I think that's obviously the goal here is to just educate people, walk them
through our process and what we do.
We deliver the metal obviously straight to you at home for cash purchases.
We do physical metals IRAs where it's stored and vaulted, and you can pull it out, and
we'll audit them and photograph them for you.
You're well familiar with that, but I don't think all your audience members are.
And so yeah, look, people should give us a call.
You can ask for me personally.
You can email me too.
I feel like this is helpful.
If you don't mind, Seth, I just want to throw my email.
Yeah, please do.
Yeah, it's good.
I want people to be able to contact you.
Even my mom, right?
So she watched our interview, and she's like, hey, Seth, can I work with Micah directly?
Because she was moving an IRA.
And I'll say a few things.
Yeah, she was so sweet and so good to work with.
But she was one of the cases that we had where her custodian, they'll remain unnamed, but
her custodian just made it so challenging.
Normally rollovers happen within like two to three weeks.
And I think we were almost at like two months by the time it got done because they told
her one thing and then another, and they changed their story about the process and made her
do this.
Anyway, she had a very difficult time with her custodian.
We were there to help her through that.
But I'm sorry that that happened.
We eventually got her in actually pretty close to the lows as well.
And it was a pleasure working with her.
But the reason I want to give my email is because I feel a lot of people are a bit gun
shy about making that first call.
And they don't want to have to have that conversation.
So Micah, M-I-C-A-H at nobleira.com is where you can send me questions.
You can write to me whatever you want.
If that's kind of an easier way of taking that first step to get in touch for no pressure
sales, super consultative, education and service based, of course.
So I just think it's helpful to throw it out there for people who might be a little bit
shy about giving us a call.
Great.
And I'll put that in the description.
So Micah at nobleira.com.
Also, we have the website.
Easy to remember.
Goldwithseth.com.
Goldwithseth.com takes you here.
You have a phone number.
There's also a form you can fill out as well to get a wealth kit.
And it's pretty easy.
It's straightforward.
So Micah, it's been good talking to you, man.
I always enjoy these discussions.
And, you know, we'll see.
I think we'll be coming back on again in a month or so and we'll see what's happening.
But I'm still, I feel very secure, optimistic, and I know you do too.
And it's, yeah, it's, you kind of just hold it, stay steady, keep your emotions steady
and just look to the future.
Yep.
Yeah, exactly.
View on the long term.
Don't worry about the short term.
Directionally, things are unchanged.
Fundamentally, things are unchanged.
These are all super bullish times.
Try to be doing the opposite of what people are saying.
I know that's hard to do in investing and in life, but taking advantage of these opportunities.
And then the last thing I'd say is just being proactive.
Most people won't come to us until the AI bubble has popped in their 401ks.
Take a big bath or their IRAs.
Take a big bath.
If you can be a day or, sorry, six months early rather than a day late, I think that's
a big benefit.
The amount of capital I expect that will flow out of tech and all that stuff and into precious
metals is going to be huge, like something we've never seen, especially because of all
the reasons we've mentioned.
And the writing's on the wall.
Like you said, institutions are buying like crazy, banks, governments, billionaires.
It's just not retail investors.
Usually they're the bag holders.
They're the last to get the news.
They're the last to be told about what's going to happen.
And if we can just be a little bit more proactive in all areas of life, but especially financial
preparation, this is a key time to start doing that.
So I welcome any calls.
Welcome any emails.
Thanks for having me on.
And we might have some news to discuss earlier than a month from now if we end up having
some major gold revaluation announcement this weekend.
Again, very unlikely, but if that happens, maybe we'll do an impromptu review of what's
going on.
So let's just see how that plays out.
Sounds good, man.
Micah, thank you again.
I love talking to you.
Take care, man.
Thanks.
You too.
CSF.