California is advancing one of the biggest projects the state has ever planned: a $20 billion tunnel running 45 miles beneath the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The tunnel would join the State Water Project, which delivers water to 27 million people and 750,000 acres of farmland.
Californians have watched big public projects run long and cost more than promised, and this one arrives with the question already attached: can the state still build something this big? The concerns are familiar. The project has already spent more than six years in planning and permitting, and construction would run well over a decade. Yet the organization responsible for building the tunnel says this project is set up differently from the ones Californians remember, beginning with who pays for it and who answers for the money.
Graham Bradner is the executive director of the Delta Conveyance Design and Construction Authority, the agency responsible for designing and building the project. He explains what his team decided to change before the environmental review ever began, and the one risk he says engineering cannot remove.
00:00 - Introduction 01:13 - Delta Conveyance Project Overview 03:40 - Project Benefits and Assurances 05:09 - Funding and Political Pressure 11:43 - Construction and Environmental Considerations 15:06 - Legal and Compliance Challenges 19:37 - Construction Timeline and Challenges 29:13 - Cost and Benefit Analysis 39:39 - Comparison to High-Speed Rail
The Delta Conveyance Project is a $20.1 billion infrastructure initiative designed to modernize California's water delivery system. By constructing a 45-mile tunnel and new intakes in the Northern Delta, the project aims to enhance water security, adapt to climate-driven runoff changes, and ensure seismic resilience for 27 million residents and 750,000 acres of farmland.
California is planning to build a massive water project,
a $20 billion project.
Some people are concerned after the bullet train project
getting delayed and the budgets going up and up,
California is unable to build massive projects like this.
Today, we sit down with Graham Bradner,
who's an executive director for the organization
that's behind developing this project.
Today, he's gonna give us an insider view of this project,
how it will impact the community,
and what measures he's taking to make sure
we don't end up the same way as the bullet train.
This project is being designed
for a hundred year minimum life expectancy.
So it would be delivering water for the next century.
So this is really a generational improvement
that will continue to provide water throughout the state
for many generations to come.
Some people in your space that argue
that there might be better ways of getting this water.
What are your thoughts on that?
I'm Siamak, welcome to California Insider.
Graham, it's great to have you, welcome.
Thank you, happy to be here.
We wanna talk to you about one of the biggest projects
the state is gonna do,
which is the Delta Conveyance Project.
Can you tell us more about this project?
The State Water Project, first of all,
is backbone infrastructure for the state of California.
So this is a system that delivers water
to 27 million Californians throughout the state.
750,000 acres of ag land
is supported by the State Water Project.
So Delta Conveyance, the Delta Conveyance Project
is an augmentation to that system.
It's intended to improve the ability to deliver water
through the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.
There is the existing State Water Project infrastructure
that's mostly positioned in the South Delta.
So that's where the pumps and the canals start
that head South and over to the Bay Area.
So the Delta Conveyance Project would add two new intakes
on the main stem of the Sacramento River
on the far Northern side of the Delta,
and then connect those intakes through 45 miles of tunnel
down to the far Southern end
where those existing facilities already are,
and connect those up at the Bethany Reservoir,
which is kind of a key meeting spot
for all the canals that take off from there.
Right now, there is a big problem with pumps
and that people are always wondering,
like how much can you pump and all that.
And would this project solve this problem in a sense?
There are a couple of issues evolving.
One is a change in climate,
which is affecting the runoff patterns through the Delta.
As the past years have demonstrated, even in dry years,
there are big storms that come and huge pulses of water
that flow through the system.
But there are also a lot of operational restrictions
and limitations on the existing system
that prevent really the full use
of the State Water Project water right.
So this project is intended to work in conjunction
with those existing facilities,
so combined and in concert with,
but having intakes on the completely opposite end
of the Delta would provide a lot more flexibility
in terms of adjusting for river conditions
or regulatory considerations.
And in some situations, it may be such
that both are operating at the same time.
So it allows for capturing high flow conditions,
although relatively brief,
but to capture significant quantities of water
and move it downstream into storage throughout the system.
Does it give assurance to farmers and the water users
after this project is built that we will have the water?
Because some years, farmers tell us
that they're not getting enough allocations.
There absolutely has been a lot of variability
in terms of the deliveries on the State Water Project.
We've been tracking this
with the Department of Water Resources
for the past five years.
Each of the years has been different,
but in every year,
the project would have delivered additional water
had it been in place.
A really good example is last year.
So just, this would be the water year 24-25.
Almost a million acre feet would have been captured
and delivered through the Delta Conveyance Project
had it been in place.
To put that into context, Diamond Valley Reservoir,
which is a very large Southern California reservoir,
holds about 800,000 acre feet in total.
So this is about 1.2 times the volume of Diamond Valley.
So that's a significant amount of water.
These could be considered missed opportunities
because the existing system limitations we talked about.
So when the rain comes in,
we see those footage of when the water is going to the ocean
because we can't capture it, right?
That's correct.
And so having the intakes on the main stem
of the Sacramento River as on-bank intakes
really alleviates a number of the challenges
that may prevent or limit the use of the existing system.
So this provides a set of intakes
in a very different condition where,
in which case the state would be able to divert
in cases where they can't out of the South.
Graham, this is a large project.
This is a significant project, like 24 billion,
20 to 24 billion?
Our last estimate in 2024 dollars is 20.1 billion.
20.1 billion.
Correct.
The state, you know, right now,
unfortunately we don't have a very good reputation
for building big projects like this.
What are your thoughts on this project?
So I'm familiar with that reputation.
I guess starting first with the organization
that I work for,
the Delta Conveyance Design and Construction Authority,
is a purpose-built organization.
It's a joint powers authority
formed by the 16 public water agencies
that are participating in this program
by water through the State Water Project.
So there's a clear connection between those responsible
for governance and oversight,
who are those same 16 public water agencies.
They form the board that I report to.
So there's a very clear connection
to the work that's being done,
the funds that are being spent,
and those are the folks who are paying the bills
associated with the work.
So first of all, I think that's a very good structure.
These JPA structures do work,
and it's been working very well
for the years that I've been involved,
and really since the organization was created.
Another key issue is that,
I know we have been in the planning and permitting phase
for probably the last six years.
These large projects really take a very long time
to work through the permitting process.
We're getting close to completing that.
It's an effort led by the Department of Water Resources.
They ultimately will own and operate the system
as part of the State Water Project.
But the role of permitting is a very important role.
It's a necessary role to consider impacts
and disclose those impacts
and sort out potential mitigations to address them.
But the notion that it takes six, seven, eight years
to get a large project into the delivery phase
is certainly a challenge,
and I think many large projects
experience the same challenge.
What you're mentioning is this is not funded by taxpayers.
Essentially, the water agencies are funding this.
That is correct.
And the ratepayers,
they will figure out the ratepayers would end up paying.
That's right.
So it's not funded through broad tax base.
It's not funded through general fund at the state level.
It is all funded through
the participating public water agencies
who, through their water sales,
would cover their portion of the cost.
And it could come in various forms,
depending on how the agency structures
their finances and income.
Does a structure like this remove the political pressure?
I think it does remove some of the political pressure,
although at the same time,
we're partnered with the Department of Water Resources
as the ultimate owner and operator of the system.
So the state would own it.
The state would own it when it's done,
but we're the agency responsible for design and construction.
The State Water Project in general
has been removed somewhat from political conditions
because the way that I'm describing
this project would be funded
is the same way that the State Water Project
is funded overall.
There is no general fund
that supports the State Water Project.
That system is entirely paid for
by the water agencies that receive the water.
And in doing that,
it removes it from the political cycles
that may affect other large commitments
at the statewide level
as there's political turnover and change,
priorities change.
But delivering water through the State Water Project
is really not an option to be changed
because it's the water agencies who pay for it.
They fund all the work that's performed on the system.
You mentioned it takes six years to do this,
six to seven years to do the permitting.
Can you tell us what's the process like?
And is this reasonable?
That's a difficult question as to whether it's reasonable.
I can tell you some of the things we've done
maybe a little differently on our project,
on the Delta Conveyance Project.
When Governor Newsom took over
and California Water Fix,
which was a twin tunnel version of the project
was downsized to a single tunnel project.
We took full advantage
of really thinking through the configuration of this project,
recognizing the difficulties of permitting in the state
and also in a setting like the Delta,
which is an environmentally and agriculturally
significant and sensitive area.
So we knew there were significant permits
that were gonna have to be worked through in the process.
So we started early citing
all of the project facilities from scratch,
thinking through existing infrastructure,
farmland designation, environmental habitat,
anything that we knew would be an important consideration
when it came to laying out
the new configuration of the project.
We took that on early,
even before the environmental permitting process
had really started.
So that the concept that we took into the CEQA process
already had significant refinements
in terms of managing
and minimizing community effects to the region.
That was a somewhat novel approach
to dedicate that amount of energy prior to CEQA
and then carrying a project
that already incorporated a lot of those refinements
even into the CEQA process
before impacts were identified
and necessary mitigations then identified.
So we weren't waiting on CEQA to tell us
where we needed to make changes.
We made a lot of changes before.
So this is a very long project.
Like the length of this project is 40 something miles.
Is that-
It's 45 miles of tunnel.
Yes.
And it goes through different communities, right?
It does.
It starts around the community of Hood
in the North Delta along the Sacramento River.
The tunnel alignment swings East towards Interstate 5.
We generally avoid tunneling under populated areas.
The good thing here is this is a very rural setting.
So there's existing infrastructure,
a lot of existing farmland, levees,
other types of infrastructure.
But in terms of populated areas,
we swing over towards Interstate 5
then down towards the Port of Stockton
and then back over towards the South Delta
near Clifton Court, Fort Bay.
So we do generally avoid significant populated areas.
You mentioned that you actually mitigated
some of the CEQA related risks in the design phase.
Did you design it in a way
where you don't have a lot of environmental impact
or did you have to go with a certain design
and you thought about how to deal
with the environmental impact?
When we set about redesigning the project
for a single tunnel configuration,
the Department of Water Resources
issued 10 objectives to us to consider
how we might, for instance, minimize impact
on existing farmland usage,
how we might minimize potential flood risk increases
associated with the project,
how we might minimize increasing demand
on what is already a somewhat stretched
emergency response system within the Delta.
So with these objectives,
then we set about essentially redesigning the project.
And so for each major project facility,
whether it's the intakes, the pumping plant at the South,
the launch shafts for the tunnel boring machines,
we created a repeatable process
of considering potential candidate sites,
screening them based on a number of factors.
So as I mentioned, it might be the presence of habitat
that might be important habitat.
There's various farmland designations throughout the area.
So understanding what those current designations are
and usage at the surface,
the presence of existing infrastructure
that might be affected by the construction of the project,
existing structures, houses, buildings,
other structures along the way.
And so by performing that siting study,
we developed a configuration that minimizes those impacts
irrespective of their consideration
through the permit process.
But just knowing that going into the process of permitting
that many of these considerations
had already been built into the concept
as opposed to waiting for the permits
to tell us where we needed to make changes.
So most of the projects we build go the other way, right?
We kind of plan and then we go through the CEQA
and then the CEQA will say, make the changes
and then you have to go make the changes.
So you guys figured out what to do beforehand.
Yes, because a project at this scale,
I think it was a good strategic decision
to really dedicate the energy and effort early,
not only so that we could develop a concept
as we've been talking about,
but also to really bring a comprehensive project
to the table so that not just the major elements
of the project were being considered through the permits,
but even the ancillary impacts,
the roads that we're gonna need to haul materials on
and access the sites.
How would those be affected?
Existing roads, are we gonna need to modify interchanges
and off ramps so that the project footprint
captures a fully constructible project,
not leaving anything out to be decided later,
which is pretty typical.
Like you're saying, other projects,
maybe not of this scale would enter the CEQA process
with less refinement on those,
maybe ancillary or kind of detailed elements.
But because the project is the scale that it is,
we feel it was worth the energy to really map out
a complete project that could then be taken into CEQA.
Now, there's a lot of CEQA lawsuits.
Are you concerned of you guys
getting some of those too in this way?
Is it customary for a lot of projects,
especially your size is huge,
a lot of projects in California would hit those,
will have those lawsuits hit them.
Do you think you guys will get some of those as well?
Well, you're right.
I mean, right now the legal focus
is typically on the environmental permitting side of things.
Those are ongoing, but as DWR is the lead permit agency,
those are not directly pointed at the DCA.
I expect into the future with a project of this scale,
there will certainly be issues of some form or another.
The topic of permits will start to transition
to a permit compliance viewpoint.
So once all the permits have been obtained,
there are the regulatory requirements
and commitments associated with those permits.
And so it'll be our responsibility
working very closely with DWR
to make sure that we are compliant
with all the regulatory requirements.
So that's really the next phase that we'll be moving into
once the major permits are all in hand.
So once you have the permits,
then you're going to look at the compliance,
if you can be compliant with them.
And then from there,
when would you guys start the construction?
First of all, we have been working on the compliance side now
just to collecting the commitments
and requirements along the way
so that we're not waiting till the very end
to assemble them together and see what we're dealing with.
So we have been collecting and compiling along the way,
but upon completing the couple
really significant remaining permits,
then yes, we will be shifting
to really a go-no-go decision phase for the water agencies.
And so these are all of the public water agencies
considering their participation in the project for delivery,
signing on for their portion of the debt service
associated with the bonds that would be used
to fund construction of the project.
So that's really the next major phase that we'll be entering.
Our anticipation is maybe middle, late 27
that we'll start with the public water agencies
and probably take the better part of a year
to get through the 16 agencies.
Having done that,
we would then really be focused
on the delivery phase of the program.
Construction of some of the very early elements
would be in mid 29.
That's really for the compensatory mitigation projects
that are necessary to mitigate the project elements.
And then likely starting major construction elements
on the features of the Delta Conveyance Project
around 2030, 2031.
You mentioned the go-no-go phase.
Is there a chance for this to get stopped
or is it that the water agencies,
not all of them may participate in it?
I'd say it's more the latter.
I mean, the decision is a decision for the water agencies
to consider their participation.
So that is really the major point that we're heading towards
is the collection of 16 water agencies,
each individually need to commit
to their portion of the debt service.
And that's really the next big milestone
that we'll be entering for the project.
Depending on how that goes,
really dictates the future of the program.
And what would they get for participating
besides signing up on the debt?
Do they get more water or do they get a better price?
So this project is being designed
for a hundred year minimum life expectancy.
So it would be delivering water for the next century
through this system.
It is combating the changing conditions within the Delta,
which have already reduced in exports
compared to historical performance
and which are forecast to continue to decline.
And so what this project does
through its enhanced flexibility
is allow the State Water Project to stabilize
and offset the degradation that will continue to occur
if nothing is done about it.
So it stabilizes the water supply for the future.
Opportunistically, it will yield water above,
just as I mentioned with the missed opportunities,
there will be opportunities to capture additional water
and put it into storage for dry years.
I guess to be very clear on a point,
this is not a new water right
that's required for the State Water Project.
There is an existing water right.
This system would be operated within that water right,
but it would allow for more flexibility in conditions
and adapting the operations in the Delta,
depending on what the runoff is
or what other limitations might be curtailing their exports.
When you go to the construction phase,
you mentioned it would take 10 to 12 years, right?
Is there any reasons for that?
I know this is a massive project,
but are there any hurdles that you might face
in construction?
You're right about the schedule.
It's about 13 years of construction
associated with the project.
The main cause of that,
although if you really study the elements of the project,
there are just several very large features
that take many years to fully construct,
but it is the tunnel itself
that really drives the schedule.
Those tunnel boring machines
excavate on the order of two miles per year.
And so we would have currently four TBMs
that would be excavating simultaneously
along separate reaches of the project,
but it's that production rate
that tends to drive the schedule.
The reason the tunnel approach is the selected approach
is that it so significantly reduces the impacts
at the surface.
And it provides significantly improved resilience
to seismic impacts and effects.
So there are a number of benefits associated
with the tunnel construction
or the tunnel usage as part of the permanent facility,
but it does come at a cost, which is time.
You mentioned seismic.
How does it work with seismic issues?
You said it's better.
It's better, it's better.
So there's a condition in the Delta
where, if you're familiar,
there's about a thousand or more miles of levees
constructed within the Delta.
They encircle what are now called islands,
but essentially they're tracks of land that have subsided.
The elevation has fallen due to a variety of factors,
but the levees around their perimeter
continue to be built higher and higher
to deal with that subsidence,
but also to deal with changing hydrology,
which at times through tidal effects
and concentration of storms,
you can have very high extreme water events.
So that combined effect is really worsened
by the soil within the Delta,
which is what's referred to as peat or organic soil.
And so these are very thick deposits,
10, 20, 40, 50, 60 feet of organic matter in a map of,
and these are like old tule reeds
and old vegetation from the area that have been compressed,
and they're really the surface soil within the Delta.
And then the levees are built on top of that.
And so that material, it's not a reliable material
when it comes to seismic performance.
So that's one issue.
The other is that it's all saturated,
which is also, from a liquefaction standpoint,
is a necessary requirement that it be fully saturated.
So you have those elements combining
to make surface construction very difficult
and seismic stability also very difficult within the Delta.
Alternatively, with the tunnel construction,
it would be built down in depths 100 to 150 feet
in that horizon.
The soil at that depth is much older
and more consolidated mineral soil,
so typical sand, silt, clay,
materials that behave predictably
when exposed to seismic shaking.
But just the consolidation,
the predictability of that soil,
it can be designed in a way that's traditional
as opposed to the way surface structures
in the Delta are designed, which is more challenging.
How big is the tunnel, like in terms of the width?
Like, is it a very wide one or is it?
Yeah, the inside diameter of the tunnel is 36 feet.
So external diameter is around 40.
Okay, it's pretty big, okay.
Yeah, well, and that's another point, too.
When you ask about the seismic resilience
is that the tunnel itself is designed state-of-the-art.
You know, there are modern design standards,
especially when it comes to circular structures
like a tunnel, which are inherently very strong.
And so you have the ability to really incorporate
all that's necessary into that structure
to manage fault offsets, those types of things.
I mean, this is very common practice
to create elements of the tunnel that can even shift
and manage to hold together
during a significant seismic event.
Those types of things can be done at the surface, too.
But really, the tunnel will be a state-of-the-art feature
that's designed to modern standards,
consolidated soil, much more predictable behavior
from a seismic shaking perspective.
From the position you're at, Graham,
do you see a part of this project that is riskier
that you cannot predict and you might think
this part may not go well?
Is there certain parts that you can point out
that you are concerned about?
I mean, I think projects at this scale present a challenge.
And I think you mentioned that there are other examples.
Constructing a tunnel of this length
certainly is not at the limits of the industry
by any stretch, but it is gonna have its challenges.
It will take time to build.
I think time is probably the biggest challenge
that we have on this project.
I think we've seen it to date,
taken six, seven years to get back to this point
where we have a project that's nearly fully permitted,
being teed up for all the water agency decisions
to move forward.
After that, we finally can really transition
into the delivery phase and get this project done.
So I think with these big projects,
time is probably the biggest factor.
You mentioned the industry.
This is not the biggest for the industry.
Can you tell us more examples?
Well, down here in LA,
there's a lot of transit lines constructed through.
So the LA region is full of tunnel boring machines,
excavating various metro lines through the area.
There are significant tunnels.
A lot of times they are constructed for transportation,
but there are also trains, cars.
So if you look around,
the Miami airport has recently constructed a tunnel
that if you've been down to Miami,
it's kind of difficult to get to the airport.
They have a large bridge that is a constriction,
so they've tunneled underneath the channel to access.
Over to another big use of this type of technology
is in older coastal cities,
where again, due to changing climate and hydrology,
the old stormwater systems and sewer systems
can't keep up with a certain,
once a certain level of storm hits
and there can be a lot of damage
caused by those systems overflowing.
So for instance,
London has recently finished the Tideway program,
which created combined sewer outfall systems
throughout the city underneath London
that can hold this water temporarily
and then discharge it upon treatment.
That's also very common use throughout the US as well.
So the water tunnel like this is used other places.
Yes.
It's not its own first.
It is not its own first,
but when you think about a tunnel exactly like this
in soft ground conveying water 45 miles,
that may be a somewhat unique configuration,
but there's nothing about it that's new to the industry.
It's just each project,
each configuration has got its own
kind of unique combinations,
but we're not at the,
anywhere near the,
what really seems to be the limiter is diameter
on tunnel boring machines,
and that is an ever-
They can't make it larger.
Yeah, that is an ever-growing limit.
So I think they're approaching 60 feet now
in terms of total diameter.
Do you think that can happen
by the time you start the construction?
That's already happened.
Our tunnel will not be getting that big.
Our tunnel will stay at the diameter it is.
It's long enough and big enough, so.
If you had a bigger tunnel,
would that transport more water
or we don't have the water to transport?
That's a different question, I suppose.
I mean, the diameter of the tunnel
is designed based on the flow.
And so, because what you're trying to do
in that case is move the water at a certain velocity
so that it's keeping the sediment moving
and not depositing in the tunnel,
but not moving too fast so that you have friction
and things starting to degrade the tunnel lining.
So really it's the flow that drives the diameter
in this case.
And so, I mean, the tunnel is sized appropriately
for a 6,000 cubic foot per second diversion,
which is the design standard,
the design criteria for the project.
Currently we are funded through the end of calendar year 2028
and so that's intended to leave space
for the water agencies to hold those implementation votes
that we talked about between mid-27, mid-28.
So that's where that will really dictate the path forward.
But we're covered as an organization
and as a program through the end of 28.
So there's a little bit of buffer there.
The future beyond 2028 is really all about
design and constructing this project.
And will you guys be responsible for that
or is there going to be another entity?
No, it is us.
We are responsible for the design
and construction of the project, yes.
So right now we work with DWR very closely.
We'll continue to work with DWR
through the delivery of the project,
but the responsibility is the DCAs.
So Graham, you're bringing all this water
and it's extra water.
We know the value of it.
A lot of people have come on the show
and everybody knows by now
the value of water in California.
What's the cost benefit?
So you're spending $20 billion for this project.
Can you tell us the cost benefit of this?
Along with that estimate I mentioned
that was published back in 2024,
there was a benefit cost analysis
performed at a statewide level.
That cost benefit analysis took the updated cost estimate
we provided, also the total 100 years
of operations and maintenance costs
associated with the project,
took the unmitigated environmental impacts
and quantified those in terms of a cost.
So that all got racked up on the cost side.
On the benefit side,
it's the water supply reliability benefits,
water quality benefits, seismic resilience,
seismic improvements.
So those were compared through that analysis.
At that time, the benefit cost ratio is 2.2 to one.
So for every dollar spent, $2.2 in return
for all of those who receive water from the system.
And to reiterate, this is a 100 year system.
So this is really a generational improvement
to the project that will continue to provide water
throughout the state for many generations to come.
What about the current system?
Is the current system okay for another 100 years?
Do you have any thoughts on that?
Well, as you know,
systems need upgrading and maintenance.
No system is ever good forever.
Within the Delta,
it relies on the levees that have been built over time
to route water through the channels and sloughs.
So water enters the Delta through the Sacramento River,
the San Joaquin River,
and a number of other tributaries
that flow in from various points.
The existing State Water Project pump
is in the very South Delta down by Clifton Court Forbay.
So the existing system relies on the levees
within the Delta to continue to function
in order to route that surface water
to where it needs to be in the South Delta.
I think there is a need to continue to maintain
and upgrade those levees.
That's just sort of constant in the Delta
where the subsidence is occurring annually,
just continuously on an ongoing basis
to ensure those levees continue to perform.
It is the state's priority to continue operating
as a priority, the existing infrastructure in the South.
So yes, I think there is definitely a need
to continue upgrading the levees
within the Delta, for instance,
but it's not at the cost of Delta Conveyance
and upgrading those levees does not remove the need
for the Delta Conveyance Project
for the reasons we just described.
They are really intended to be operated
as complementary components of the same system.
So you mentioned this is gonna cost about 20 billion.
Based on our experience with other big projects
in the state, the costs have gone up and up and up.
Are you anticipating the costs
to go up significantly from here?
So to clarify, the 20.1 billion,
so that was an estimate in 24 and 23,
so the dollar basis is important.
It's an undiscounted estimate,
an economic term that essentially means
the time value of money is not included in that estimate.
So inflation will cause it to go up?
Well, the benefit-cost analysis does build
in the time-related aspects of the analysis
because you have an offset benefit in construction periods.
You've got 20 years of all expenditures
and then you've got 100 years of benefits that accrue.
So the way economists handle this is through discounting.
They discount back to a consistent dollar basis
and that's what we have with the benefit-cost ratio.
So those offsetting costs and benefits
have both been discounted back to that same 20, $23 basis.
We will be updating the cost estimate next year.
So this is really a key predecessor
to the water agencies making their implementation decisions.
We will be updating the estimate to a class three estimate.
So that's an improvement over the last estimate,
which was a class four.
Really just narrowing the accuracy,
tightening up conservatisms
and just removing some of the uncertainty
associated with cost estimating for that class three.
So that will be in 2027.
It's supported by a significant improvement
in the system-wide engineering,
also a requirement to qualify as a class three estimate.
So we've moved the overall system-wide design
substantially forward.
That information is feeding the updated cost estimate.
At the same time,
we're considering a number of potential refinements
to the design and construction program
to better manage schedule, better manage risk,
actually remove hard costs through reduced quantities.
We talked about this back in the 24 estimate.
We put our base estimate out of 20.1 billion,
but we highlighted several potential refinements
to the project, which even at that early stage,
we were very comfortable saying,
we see one and a quarter billion saved
through this set of refinements here.
And this is just scratching the surface
because we're at a very,
we were at a very early conceptual design phase.
And so for us to come out with those types of refinements,
we would need to feel very confident
and comfortable talking about those now,
which we are and were then.
So we're continuing to work on the refinement side
of the design as we're enhancing the design,
collecting more subsurface information,
trying to tease out conservatisms
that we knew were built in
to the original very conservative early design
so that we're attempting to offset
some of those inflationary impacts.
So that next estimate that comes out in 27
will be a class three estimate,
fully supported by a system-wide design.
Which is more detailed, class three, more accurate.
More accurate.
So it'll move initially
at the very early concept stages of a project,
you'd call it a class five,
and then it increments up to a class one,
meaning you're essentially in construction.
Your actual cost.
There's very little margin of error
associated with a class one estimate.
Class five has a very large margin of error.
And so we're incrementally moving our way
across that spectrum.
And a class three is the right point to be at
for making significant funding decisions.
It recognizes still the uncertainty
that we have on the project,
but it captures a level of detail
that's reasonable and appropriate for this stage.
We do also need to be very thoughtful
about incorporating contingencies
and cost to treat risk and manage risk,
evaluating schedule quantitatively.
So these are all parts of what are wrapped up
into a class three estimate and disclosure.
You mentioned the water agencies,
some of them have to sell,
they have to definitely get bonds, right?
To support this kind of a-
Yeah, this project will be funded by revenue bonds.
There are two potential pathways to that.
One is the Department of Water Resources
who routinely sells bonds now
to fund major capital programs,
State Water Project or otherwise.
So they have existing infrastructure in place
for revenue bond and managing those proceeds.
Alternatively, so do the water agencies.
Many of the larger water agencies,
especially like Metropolitan Water District
routinely uses revenue bonds
to fund large capital programs.
I guess I mentioned two options,
but really the third option
would be the Delta Conveyance Finance Authority,
which was a separate JPA that was established
by the same collection of public water agencies.
And that finance authority
would also be a potential option.
But I think right now the working assumption
is that the Department of Water Resources
would sell the revenue bonds,
but it would be each of the public water agencies
that would assume the debt for their portion of the project
and would be required to repay those bonds
over the life of the bond period.
In a project like this, it's 13 years of construction.
So you're gonna spend all this money over 13 years.
Do they sell these bonds like every other year, every year,
or do you get the money upfront?
How does that work?
Typically it's timed.
So there is a projection of cashflow necessary
for the project and the revenue bonds
are sequenced in advance
so that it's not arriving just in time.
Nobody would wanna run a project like that.
But at the same time,
you don't necessarily want to hang on
to the bond proceeds too long either.
There's limits there.
So really it's a kind of an offset curve
where you know when you're gonna need those bond,
where you're gonna need those proceeds
to pay for capital improvements.
And then you've got sort of an offset curve
where you're actually selling
and collecting the revenue associated with those bonds
in advance, but not too far in advance.
So Graham, there are some people in your space
that argue that there might be better ways
of getting this water, other opportunities,
recycling the water, doing desal.
What are your thoughts on that?
So first of all, the State Water Project Water
for most, if not all agencies
is the least expensive supply they have.
I would never advocate that anyone put all of their eggs
in one basket on water supply,
but the notion of a portfolio
is absolutely the correct approach here.
But many of these other supplies
are significantly more expensive.
They can't produce at the same quantity.
So while there is a need to continue
to advance alternative supplies,
State Water Project provides really a backbone supply
to those areas.
And in many cases, you can't recycle or create water
without a clean imported supply that's feeding them.
I think this is also important,
thinking about the context around the Colorado River,
which is under significant stress.
And so it really just heightens the importance
of the State Water Project for imported supplies.
It is a very clean, reliable supply of water,
delivers over two and a half million acre feet per year
on average.
So that supply is just an incredibly important
supply statewide.
Because of the size of your project,
and some people might compare you to the high-speed rail,
how can we make sure we don't end up
with the project that's gonna cost
like four or five times anticipated,
many, many decades of not knowing where it's going?
First of all, I guess I would distinguish
that Delta Conveyance is very different
in a couple of key ways.
So first of all, it's a modification to an existing system
as opposed to constructing an entirely new statewide system.
So the State Water Project exists.
This is an augmentation
and a very focused portion of the Delta.
So that alone is a significant difference
between Delta Conveyance and high-speed rail.
It's just scope and breadth of work area.
We have a direct connection between the water agencies
who fund the project and the governance of the DCA.
So they are appointed to the board of directors.
They manage and oversee the work performed by the DCA.
So there's just a very short and direct connection
between those funding the project
and those governing the work we do,
which is delivering on the design
and construction of the facilities.
And then lastly, I think,
looking at the footprint of the project,
which as I'm sure you know, can be a challenge
depending on the status of property acquisition.
The fact that a majority of the project is underground
through a tunnel really minimizes the surficial impacts,
minimizes the property acquisition requirements
compared to what it would be if it were a surface canal
cutting across all of that infrastructure and land.
So there's, I think, some key distinctions here.
It is a more finite and well-defined scope of work.
So the leadership is very clear
and you talk to your board members, right?
Is that, do you do it on a regular basis
and are they involved?
Yes, we meet regularly and for that matter,
our meetings are public.
You know, we do operate as a public body
with under the Brown Act.
So everything that we do at the board level
is available to the public.
We're very transparent about the work we do.
Also, I think really essential for programs like this.
And yeah, it is the board of directors
that provide direction to me
as the executive director of the DCA.
So close connection to the water agencies.
Graham Bradner, it was great to have you
on California Insider.
Thank you very much.
Appreciate it.
Tell us what you think about the Delta Convoys project.
Make sure to tell us in the comments
or email us at siamakacaliforniasider.com.
We read all of your emails and comments.
I'm Siamak Kourami, this is California Insider.
We'll see you next time.