Advanced Institutional Analysis And Forecast Gold Silver Oil Natural Gas Be Ready To Buy

Hey folks, welcome to verified investing.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here in today's video, we're going to deep dive into gold and silver, the latest forecast update based on the latest technical analysis, where is gold and silver going? We're also going to look at oil and natural gas, natural gas, a big flush over the last couple of days. The cup and handle pattern there has now been negated, but the question is, is there a signal that still says it is a potential buy we'll dive into that. As you can see, I'm no longer in Mexico. I've now migrated North, North and West over to the Pacific or West coast of the U S beautiful over here, lush green, and a lot less humid and hot, but nonetheless, I love Mexico, nothing like Mexico over there. All right, let's get into the action here, guys on the charts. Here is your gold latest analysis. So what we see is gold continues to remain in this wedge pattern. Now, as long as it remains in this wedge pattern, we're basically in a pause scenario, meaning that there's no real action to take right now, because we don't know as technicians, which way is going to break. Is it going to break to the upside above let's say 4,200 and notice this trend line continues to tighten here along with this one, they are converging. That's what makes it a wedge pattern. Or are we going to come down here and break down to the downside and flush down not only to 3,900, but then eventually to that 35 to 3,600 level on gold. Now the key is this, the beauty of this is the wedge pattern is converging wedge patterns as they converge, basically make price so that it's forced to either have a close above or below. Now it doesn't technically have to happen until all the way out here, which would be around mid August, right? At June, excuse me, August 14th. That would be the last day it can stay within this wedge. My guess is it'll break one way or the other sooner. If it breaks to the upside, that would be very important because notice major pivot high, major pivot high, all of these highs, that would be the first time we close and confirm above that. In my humble opinion, it would probably create a scenario where we start to rally, you get a check back, and then you head back to all time highs. Now on the downside, if it does break down, I think it's only a temporary breakdown, which would take us maybe as low as 3,500 here on gold. And again, that would be my huge long-term buying opportunity. And if that did happen, we would get a scenario where then this would become a major low pivot where eventually we go back to all time highs and notice in both scenarios here, both scenarios. We're going to all time highs. And you might say, well, how does Gareth know that? And first of all, I don't know that I just don't. But at the same time, we make our decisions here at verified investing based on probability. And when you look at the US debt and what's going on there and the spending and no fiscal responsibility on anywhere in the globe, it makes sense that gold would eventually move higher. These, these hard assets, these value storing assets in terms of dollars, they should increase over time. The only thing that would make me change my mind is if all of a sudden the U S got amazingly fiscally responsible and we see no sign of that whatsoever. So again, whether gold gets down to 3,500 or 3,600, which is my low end max downside target, or it doesn't either way, eventually we go to all time highs. And I think within, I think by 20, 29, we're probably near 10,000, if not at 10,000 on gold. So I know the hype on gold has really faded. Um, I've always, even when we were up here, I was saying we were headed down, people said I was crazy. Now they actually start to think that I am likely to be right, but the kicker is as people start to think that, then I think the low is getting closer and closer to being in. If we go down here, people will throw in the towel on gold and then I'll be max bullishness on gold. It's just the way psychology, human psychology works. What I want to do now is go to a bigger timeframe. This timeframe shows you why on a chart basis, I am bullish longterm. If we look at this, this goes back to 2023 and we could even go back even further, right? So if we look at this, we can say, all right, in November of 2022, we were at 1600, here was your bull run from 2022, all the way to early 2026. So again, people getting so freaked out about downside in gold, but in actuality, this is just a very normal retrace or pullback within a much larger bull move. And that's why, again, you know, I never chase highs because you're going to get pullbacks in bull markets. It's just the nature of the beast. Now, this is where that target is. You can see this flat zone right here. That's going to act as a ton of support. If we did go lower, it would still technically be within this upper move. The only difference is generally, if you want education, when you're moving up in a bull run, the pullback is best if it stays within the 50% retrace of that bull run. All right. So again, let's just say that's your 50% right there. And so in reality, if we look at this and we do a, let's do a Fibonacci on this and we'll go from this low. The idea here is that you look at this, look at where my 50% Fib retrace is. And this is the stuff that excites me beyond belief guys. And you say, well, you know, yes, there's a level on the chart right there where you consolidated. So it makes sense why Gareth is talking about that could be a major support support zone. But then you also map out that the 50% retrace is right at my 3,600 level. So if you're wondering why I say, okay, guys, downside target is 35 to 3,600. Well, look at this. You just throw that line in right around 3,500 right there. That is my zone for downside Fibonacci 50% retrace. And your pivot zone right here, those two, that zone is where I'm coming up with my target. Remember, and this is important because I think, you know, when analysts upgrade and downgrade stocks, a lot of times they just throw out these ridiculous numbers. Like, you know, oh, Sandisk could go to 3,000 or whatever. And then all of a sudden it goes from like 2,300 back to 1,500 before bounces back to 1,900. Right. And the idea is, is that a lot of analysts, they just kind of throw out targets to get their name in the papers and like all media we'll talk about. It's like everything I do is regimented to technical levels, which is probability. So it doesn't guarantee it goes there. Right. It just says, this is most likely where it's going to go. And it's most likely where it could find a bottom. So just wanted to go to the bigger timeframe on gold. I think that's probably very helpful for a lot of you guys to understand where my levels are coming from. All right. We're going to flip over to silver. Now let's go back to the charts and bring up silver. And what we could see on silver is silver is still remaining in a weak consolidation pattern. So we have, you have your base point one, two, three. Remember this was written as support when we were up here. And I said, once it breaks, it becomes resistance breaks, confirms and boom hits it rejected. Now what's beautiful about this for those of you that are bullish, like I am longer term right on silver is that we can literally put these trend lines and extend them out and notice how they're going to converge. And so as we go sideways, or even if we go lower, what we, and in all fairness, this is a bearish pattern, right? And so likelihood is we break down towards that $50 level. If that happens, I'm a big buyer around 50 guys. Listen, and I'm not, I want to be the first to say that it's very, I'm not the greatest at pinpointing the exact low or the exact high, right? When, when silver got above a hundred and got to like 110, I'm like, all right, guys, this is a huge short and it goes to 120. Okay. It's just euphoria and fear are the two biggest driving forces. Very hard to pinpoint where those kind of factors will flip. But what I am good at is general ranges. And so when I say 50, I don't know if it's going to go to 45. I don't know if it's going to go to 52 or 54. Right. But in general, that's the zone. And that's where I come in with my shotgun effect approach, which is I don't try to pick exact lows in any of my swing trading or, or longer term investor. I basically say, okay, this is my zone. Like on, on gold, it's 3,600 to 3,400. So I'll buy a little at 3,600, buy a little at 35, buy a little at 34. And I might even buy, if it goes lower at 33 or 32, same thing on silver. You know, at 54, I might nibble a tiny bit at 50 at 46 and just nibble in that area and this way I have some exposure if it doesn't get that low, but if it does go lower, I can dollar cost average. And it's a way to just kind of mitigate the risk of either missing the trade or getting into early on a full position and just getting smoked. All right. Now the downside, again, what I love about this is that number one, here's your 54 level high pivot to high pivot. Here's your 46 level, this low pivot. And what's amazing is this zone right here, right? So all of this area right in here, that actually, if you go to your bigger timeframe and we zoom out, what is that level? Look at your high from 1980 and your high from 2011. Guess where it is right around $50. So this would be what we would call a retrace to the scene of the crime. When you have a level that hits and retraces multiple times and then breaks out, there's this tendency, and I say tendency means probability that it comes back in to that level, finds it. And then rips higher. And so like gold and so like gold, I'm very bullish longer term on silver. It's just a matter of, does it come back and retrace, which is very common in charts. And you can see how close we are. I mean, this is remarkable. You have your high pivot here, right? From 1980. Now, again, the, the major rebuttal a lot of people give me is, oh, well, you know, the, if you figure out the inflation that's been since that time, then, you know, why would we ever go back to 50? The thing is it doesn't matter. Um, well, no, technically it does matter. Let's talk about that. So technically absolutely matters, but short-term price is driven by fear or greed long-term it's driven by fundamentals, which is why I would be a buyer if it gets down to 50 ish. The idea is not only is it technically a sound level, but also longer term, you're absolutely right. Inflation adjusted silver should be way higher and you have all those other factors we've talked about and people have, but the thing is in the short term, fear drives oversold to oversold and greed drives overbought in the near term, long-term, you guys are absolutely right on that case. Okay. So just wanted to make you guys clear on that. All right, let's go to oil here, guys. And oil did get that pop. This was a beautiful pop. Let's go back to our daily chart on oil and take a quick gander. So we got our pop last week. We got as high as about $76 a barrel. My upside target has been 78 to 79. So we got very, very close. This is my upside target right here. Um, there has been more chatter over the weekend and more kind of, you know, robust chatter, you know, between us and Iran and all this stuff. So it's very possible. We still have a little bit more upside to go. I think I told you guys last week in a video, I did take half off my long on oil with smart money, commodity members. Um, and then this way, if it pulls back and I like it again, then I can rebuy, or if it just goes to target, I take the rest off the table. By the way, before we get into more of this guy's just a reminder, I'll be dropping my latest discount, um, for verified investing to members of Gareth's top squad. So if you're a member, it's 10 bucks a month, unless you're going through the eye Apple store and then they charge you 30%. Um, or if you're out of the country, like I heard in Canada, for some reason, it's like 20 bucks or 20 Canadian, but again, either way, I'm just charging the nine 99, 10 bucks a month. Um, in any case, the point is I'm dropping every week at discount code. That's good for a couple of days. Last week, it was 20% off smart money. Crypto, um, this weekend, it'll be another service that I'm going to probably offer 20% off on. So, and I'm really leaning towards smart money commodities, uh, right now. So if you're interested in getting my, you can see my exact portfolio, every entry and exit is literally the position with shares, everything is in there. You see the PNL for the whole year. It's based on a million dollar portfolio, all of that. You get to see in that service. So again, just think about it. Um, but again, I'll drop that probably tomorrow on Sunday. If you are a member, you'll get that. And I'm also putting out probably either today or tomorrow, a members only key trade setups for the week video, uh, as well. So all that alpha, I mean, just tons of alpha. I love that the, my goal is every week that the discount is at least the amount that it costs to sign up, which is 10 bucks. So a minimum $10 and sometimes it'll be like, I mean, heck we've had the course, an extra 10% off the courses. We're doing a 40% off sale at verified investing. I'm offering 10% additional to members of this, uh, Gareth's top squad. So like on, on my winning trader shoes, that's an extra $600 off, um, on even a course that's 500 bucks, that's an extra 50 bucks off. It's incredible. All right. In any case, back to the chart on oil real quick, guys, again, great move up, pull back, this is going to be resistance. This is support. I want to be clear that overall I already took half off. So again, I'm kind of in the driver's seat. We took a good profit on that, those shares. Now it's just a wait and see if we break through here, then you're likely headed up. See this pivot in lines with kind of right in here and right through here. So that would be your next target around 86 to $87 barrel. I don't know if it gets there because the midterms are looming. And part of the reason why we saw a pullback last week, what late last week, I should say is because, um, the markets are starting to call Trump's bluff that he's not going to escalate significantly with Iran because of the midterms, which are only months away at this point. And so again, there's too much political risk to do that with as unpopular as the war has been. Um, so that's, that's why it was come back in. Now I still think a little escalation could occur, but I don't think oil goes back to a hundred dollars a barrel. And ultimately when the U S economy weakens later this year, I think oil actually breaks down towards $50 a barrel. Now we've got to talk about natural gas here, guys, because Nat gas, we had the cup and handle pattern here and it was looking okay. And I said, you guys, I do not have a second factor yet to go long on that gas. So I can't do it, even though it's a nice cup and handle. And then all of a sudden, boom. And I'm like, well, there you go. Two factors folks. When you learn my methodology, I teach in the winning trader series. Remember if you're Garrett top squad, you get 50% off using the extra 10% code. Otherwise it's 40% off for everyone else. But the point is, is that when you learn the methodology, you want two factors, it gets you to about a 70, 75% win rate. According to my history. And when you use it correctly, of course, and we didn't have that here. We had one factor, which is about 60%. You can see that still means 40% of the time it doesn't work. And that's sure enough, boom, low percentage. I didn't take a trade and then drops. Now I will say this is that this is very interesting. You came down right here. And this is a very, very unique, interesting area here. I did actually nibble late last week on that grass after this fall. But one of the things I'm watching, look at this trend line right here, guys, this is very interesting. So I think we come in here to about two 80 or so, and then we get a big bounce back and remember seasonality is coming on natural gas. And so I'm actually with this flush, even though the cup and handle kind of gets negated here. I actually think there's potential for rally to the upside more and more. And part of it is I think I was one of the first people to talk about the, the cup and handle bullish pattern, but then everyone saw it, right? Everyone was talking about it and patterns don't like to work out when everyone talks about it because it means too many people are lopsided and the market likes to flush those people out. So that's one of the reasons I was staying on the sidelines. It now flushed a good chunk of those out. Now I actually think, believe it or not, I'm actually a little bit more bear a bullish on natural gas after this drop, believe it or not, especially as we get into August and into September, when we're starting to get towards fall and you get seasonality in there. And then also, again, just the aspect that, and again, we'll have to see how the economy is, but at least in the near term, I'm getting much more bullish. Now, uh, weirdly, I mean, it might sound weird to people, but I actually am getting more bullish on natural gas as it flushes down part of that too, is it's just cheaper, right? So the, the cup and handle was at like three 20 or so three 30. Now it's at like two 80. And so you have a huge discount that I'm able to nibble at. And obviously I use my shotgun approach, but these are the types of things that I continue to monitor. So amazing stuff here, guys, but very much watching this trend line from 2024 to this low here in 2026, we're almost into that. It's just below two 80 here or appears to touch a two 80. And so could see a little bit more downside, maybe Sunday into Monday. And then I'd look for a reflex bounce, at least back to $3. And then if we can actually start coming in and I'll be, I'll show you guys my break point here. What I'm going to be watching is right here, downsloping trend line right there. We can get back to about three 30 and break out this things off to the races. The other thing I wanted to show you guys real quick on this is do a parallel here. And this is actually the reason why I nibbled on it late last week is that if you do a parallel here and you bring it down to this low, look at this. If we bring this up right to that level, you have this low pivot and then we actually touch that. And so all of this is major support down in this range, parallel from these highs to this low. That's something I'm keeping an eye on. I still think it could flush just to get out a few more weekends, but then I'd be looking for that move back up potentially. So let's keep an eye on it again. Very interesting chart action, long video today, guys. But I, and I apologize for that. I know you guys say, don't apologize. You guys love it, but still this is, you know, listen to Saturday. I'm going to go hang out with my family now and all that fun stuff, but I just wanted to get you guys the latest update on the commodity space next time. I'll try and throw copper in there as well. And maybe a few others have a great rest of your day, guys. Thanks again for tuning.