Middle East: Oil surges as Gulf tensions escalate

As the world watches the Strait of Hormuz, another critical shipping route is in a chokehold. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia declared a blockade against Saudi vessels seeking to pass through the Strait earlier in the week. They then launched their first attack on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. About 100km long and 30km wide, it separates Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula from the Horn of Africa. With the Red Sea a vital corridor between Europe and Asia, the Strait is among the busiest shipping lanes in the world. Iran arms and backs the Houthis, who have already shown what disruption looks like. In late 2023, Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels cut traffic dramatically, one of the most significant shocks to global shipping in decades. Before those attacks, about 12% of global oil shipments moved through Bab el-Mandeb according to the US Energy Information Administration. By the first half of 2025, that volume had more than halved. The region is already one of the most militarised in the world. US President Donald Trump has in the past threatened that American forces could be deployed to seize Iran's Karg island. Washington already has around 50,000 troops in the region across nearly 20 bases. Iran's state media says that in the event of a US ground invasion, Tehran would target vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb. The stakes go far beyond a narrow stretch of water. As the second most important route for energy shipments after the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf, there are huge implications for global trade and the stability of energy markets worldwide.