Are Gold & Silver Setting Up For A Full Market Crash?

Hello everyone, welcome to BaldGuyMoney and with the war between the United States and Iran showing really no signs of stopping, the market remains under massive pressure due to the uncertainties caused by this conflict. But where many are focusing on the war itself and wondering how this is going to determine the direction of the market, the Japanese yen, which is one of the three global safe haven currencies along with the US dollar and the Swiss franc, is crashing with the yen reaching multi-decade lows now versus the US dollar and it's becoming increasingly clear that major cracks in the financial system are becoming exposed. With tech stocks, many of which have been bought using borrowed Japanese yen in what many call the yen carry trade, being put at risk with the Nasdaq 100 now forming what Kevin Wadsworth from North Star Bad Charts has identified as a potential diamond top pattern which often leads to a major breakdown in price which could be the trigger for a stock market crash and the final phase of the capital rotation out of stocks and into precious metals that will propel both gold and silver to new highs in the coming years. So in this video I sit with Kevin Wadsworth from North Star Bad Charts who I highly recommend you I really think him and Jordan from The Daily Gold are the two best technical guys to follow in gold and silver and we discuss what is going on and just how significant a breakdown in the stock market is in determining the next move for gold and silver. We also discuss his price targets for gold and silver, his timeline for achieving them, the risk he thinks higher interest rates actually pose to gold and silver prices, his views on the oil market for those of you like me who are invested in the oil stocks and much more. We get actually a little nerdy in this video but to help you all follow along because many of the charts that we take a look at are very detailed I am offering all the charts from this video as a free download in the link I have added to the video description and pinned comment below so please take advantage of that or just screenshot them as you go because this video is going to help both traders and long-term investors which we also discuss in this video get a better understanding of how to look at this market and prepare for what comes next because we both agree the worst for gold and silver is behind us so please watch the entirety of this video including a game of this and that at the end of it to get the full value out of it as this is really a connection between my macro investing approach with Kevin's scientific technical trading approach but just before we get started for those of you who are gold and silver buyers right now please remember that Summit Metals is an A-plus rated dealer by the Better Business Bureau their prices are fantastic their products are authentic and their customer service is first class and right now Summit Metals is offering three months of free vaulting services on physical metals segregated and stored in your name and this is great for people who want to diversify storage of a large gold and silver stack as well as for European viewers who want to buy physical metals at Summit Metals prices and legally avoid VAT at the same time especially on silver this deal ends at the end of July though and if you want more details on this I will leave the link to it in the video description below so I'm here everybody with Kevin from North Star Bad Charts welcome Kevin to the show I'm very happy that you were able to make some time to sit with me today it's great to finally get to talk and discuss what's going on at the moment so thanks for thanks for asking me on here's man well I want to get right into it because you called for a deeper pullback on gold and silver earlier in the year and your opinion is that the market and some in the metals community got carried away with what you call hype narratives and I tend to agree with you on that and I try to debunk a lot of those hype narratives here on the channel but I want to start this video because I think a lot of people know you on x's that guy who kind of calls out these hype narratives what I'd like to do is I'd like to mention a couple hype narratives just name them off and let me know whether you think that's a real macro narrative that is supportive of higher gold and silver prices or whether you think that's just hype and the first one I'll ask you about is the revaluation of gold by the US government yeah that's that that old chestnut crops up month after month year after year and it's I can understand the reasoning behind the the theory it would in theory you know solve a lot of problems debt problems and I you know it makes a lot of sense but like all of these narratives it falls down in terms of realism and timing so you know it might happen it might not doesn't you can't prove one way or the other that it definitely is going to happen or it definitely isn't so that kind of leaves us with an unknown will it happen will it not some black swan event could happen it might and if we suddenly get twenty twenty five thousand dollar gold in the next uh six months or the next year or the next two years I'm brilliant if you happen to be holding gold I mean I'll be quite happy with that but regardless of that what do the technical price charts tell us is most likely to happen anyway without that kind of a an overnight repricing well I'll tell you what they tell us they tell us that the price of gold is trending much higher over the next several years for a whole variety of reasons based on technical chart weight of evidence so we don't you know in in a sense we know where gold silver and oil commodities are going based on the weight of evidence we don't need to rely on you know a narrative that may or may not be true all right so how about a stock market crash resulting in a rotation into precious metals I get the feeling that's something more at your speed yeah well now you're talking my language because that is something that you can um scientifically assess the likelihood of because we've got previous cases to study we've seen the rotations between stock markets and precious metals time after time after time the first if you look at pull up pull ups and charts on on trading view or the platform of your choice you can go back 100 years or so certainly on trading view to the 1920s you can look at the rotation away from stock markets into commodities that took place at end of 1920s into the 1930s you can see the rotation that then took place away from those sectors back into stock markets and how can you see that well you can see by doing a ratio of those two charts gold versus the s&p and we'll be able to look at a chart of gold versus s&p showing the rotations taking place so the rotation also took place well very famously of course in the 1970s now you have to be a little bit careful when you're looking at gold versus ranges of assets in the early 1970s and pre-1970s of course because the price of gold was pegged we know that that gold wasn't freely floating in US dollar terms it was globally and you can price gold in other currencies around the world but the price of gold being settled in US dollars and the price being fixed does kind of distort that comparison so we can use silver because we know gold we know the relationship between gold and silver we know how it's behaved how those two behaved ever since the early 1970s so we can use silver as a proxy so we that gives us the confidence to be able to go back before the 1970s and look at these events and it's important because if you pull up a chart of the s&p versus silver again it shows these rotations but it shows some very interesting price behavior in the 1960s and 70s which is very very reminiscent of the behavior that we're seeing now when I say price behavior I mean the relationship between the price of silver and the stock market the the ratio between the two and what it shows what you're looking at when you look at that ratio it's showing you the ebbs and flows of risk on and risk off it's looking under the hood of of the economic cycle if you like the business cycle and it's showing you how relatively speaking and I'm not saying that money comes directly out of stock market and it goes into silver but it shows you the relative performance of those two assets and why are those two asset classes so important well it's the rosetta stone of investing and I'd wish that more people would understand this and every time I talk about it kind of makes the hairs on the back of my neck stand up because if you understand this then you will instantly increase the likelihood that you are correctly positioned over the next 10 years because these cycles take place on time frames of 10 15 20 years these rotations so if you look at a chart of the S&P versus silver or post 1972 73 the S&P versus gold these rotations are as clear as day and from a technical chart point of view you can identify when you cross the threshold to be able to say with confidence that the rotation is underway and the rotation takes place gradually it's been taking place under our noses for the last several years and you look at a chart for gold versus the S&P you can very clearly see a rotation taking place away from the S&P priced in gold we're putting in higher lows and higher highs for the S&P versus gold what we haven't seen yet is what I refer to as the capital rotation event each of these rotations when they take place you get a capital rotation event now we haven't seen that yet what is the capital rotation event well the capital rotation process that I mentioned a moment ago is the process of a whole range of assets breaking down priced in gold or said another way gold breaking out versus things like the Dow Jones the S&P the NASDAQ USM2 DXY even you have to sort of think for a while what that means gold versus DXY now the rotation is taking place at the moment you might have noticed gold and silver have corrected heavily silver's down 50 percent gold is down 30 something percent so we've had a heavy correction so should we get signs of an event developing in the stock markets let's say in in this current quarter or Q4 of this year even if we start to see signs of a capital rotation event in stock market significant stock market weakness then because the precious metals have corrected as far as they have already then we can start to draw some conclusions from that and the conclusions would be that gold and silver when they when this event happens a stock market event happens sometimes gold and silver get caught up in that and sell off very badly and that's quite likely to happen if gold and silver are extended and have already had a big move but the opposite is the case gold and silver were extended they did have a big move but now they've had a big correction so if we now get a stock market event sometime in the next few months whilst gold and silver are still trying to get out of this you know correction that they've been having what's likely to happen well what's likely to happen is that gold and silver probably will for a short period of time correct a little bit more and perhaps put in their final low and it you know we might break some some support levels and have some sort of a you know a brief drop to i don't know three and a half thousand gold and you know 40 silver is possible but it wouldn't last long and gold and silver would recover quickly and outperform very rapidly the stock markets and the rosetta stone for investing is that gold versus s&p ratio chart because it gives us the confidence levels that we need to not panic to not get shaken out to not doubt ourselves because one of the hardest things when you're an investor and you've got or trader and you're you're in a position and you start to see a correction taking place is oh what do i do what do i do do i do i exit my position with a small profit or you might be saying should i exit my position now that i'm just in a small loss is it going to get worse is my loss going to get bigger well a large part of the answer to that question relies upon a confidence level having a having a degree of confidence in where we're going and that can only come from um objective not subjective but objective evidence and the objective evidence can only come from the market and the market the only way you can get a health reading of the market is to analyze the price charts and and this probably goes to one of your later questions though i know you mentioned before we we started recording which is when you're objectively looking at that evidence on the price chart you know a lot of a lot of your audience might potentially say well what is a price chart it's just mumbo jumbo you're looking at price chart trying to say what's going to happen in the future here's a classic example the oil chart last year was forming a technical pattern that was very very clear and it's well known to technical chart analysts for those that were you know able to identify on the chart and there was a very clear level around about sixty dollars or just a bit below sixty dollars and because of the pattern that had built out it was telling us that the market was preparing for a resolution one way or the other and because a lot of the um buying and selling is algo driven these days driven by algorithms um they recognize these these points on the price chart as well so when you cross a threshold a particular threshold that is recognized technically on the chart the buying begins and continues and then more buying and then more buying and more buying and whatever narratives you want to give to why oil went from sixty dollars to over a hundred dollars relating to what was going on in the middle east i don't want to burst your bubble but as a technical chart analyst i had already said that that was going to happen and furthermore i'd already said that once we got to that hundred dollar plus level we're likely to stop there and pull back and correct and consolidate and so what what are we saying now well we've identified the next level that's critically important for the price of oil above which we're going to 250 300 dollars now people are going to fall off their chair when you say that it's impossible the world won't function at 250 to 300 dollars well let me tell you that during the 1970s and the 2000s oil went up by many hundreds of percent and the world didn't stop functioning it carried on oil has been effectively stuck in a price range for decades so there's a lot of unpriced in um inflation if you like and that's what gold and silver are doing at the moment put a gold and silver chart on top of an oil chart and you'll see that in terms of the big picture for the last 150 years when gold goes up and silver goes up oil also goes up commodities energy they all go up together they're all part of the same equation so in terms of the big picture gold is going to as i believe it is fifteen thousand dollars plus over the next five six seven years then oil ain't gonna stay below 150 dollars a barrel i can't tell you how much grief i took about that opinion starting really back in november of last year i was talking on the channel about going long specifically on the oil stocks because i didn't see much value in the rest of the market they were paying solid dividends basically equal to what i could get in the certificate of deposit when i went down to the bank and i said i've got plenty of time to wait for a hundred dollar plus oil to come which i knew was coming anyhow because i'm with you we've seen it multiple times gold silver and oil rising together but a lot of people have this in their head due to recency bias what has happened just recently must be uh the the god's honest truth in that every time oil goes up metals go down because that means the fed is going to raise rates now just a point of housekeeping i want to make to the viewers who might not have understood the analogy with the rosetta stone for everybody kevin is saying that this allows us to translate the market into a language we're able to understand the rosetta stone is a stone that famously allowed us to translate the hieroglyphics which we had no idea how to translate into a language we understand because they were translated into a local egyptian language as well as into greek and that greek basis allowed us to translate the hieroglyphics and one more thing i want to say backing up what kevin is saying i often share an image i'm going to share it on the screen right now of what happened basically between 2000 and 2012 with respect to the sp500 gold and silver and this is really showing exactly what kevin is talking about with how the sp500 can stay really flat for a long time i understand there were dips below where you could have you know on a dollar cost average basis lowered your average cost for when it recovered then then you were fine i get that i'm not arguing that but during that same period of time where we saw both gold and silver increase in price more than 400 percent and that's leading me to my next question i want to ask you so you you mentioned potentially 15 000 gold in the next five to seven years i know that there are some people who are so frustrated with the metals market right now they're going to curse your name in the comment section as we talk about this but do you think that we're close to that larger scale event where we're going to be moving out of stocks and into metals and is that why what you're seeing in the charts right now that is supporting number one your 15 000 target for gold and am i correct in remembering that your target for now just before we get to kevin's answer on his targets for silver and the timeline he is looking at to achieve it i want to remind you all that owning land is another way to protect yourself from inflation and currency debasement while also being a very useful asset for preppers land is a hard asset i have recently purchased some land for myself and if you've been wanting to get some land for yourself but have had trouble getting started please remember that channel partner land of land can help you get started easily and affordably they even have lots starting right around one thousand dollars with their weekly auctions offering fantastic deals on lots all across america buying is made easy and they even accept credit cards for payment for people looking to earn points on the purchase so check them out at land of land.com or call the number on the screen and remember that the code bald guy gets you 300 off of your purchase am i correct in remembering that your target for silver is 300 something of that order would be perfectly normal now when we were breaking out at 28 30 silver and then when we crossed the threshold there was a psychological threshold at 50 and the actual threshold that was more important was the 55 to 57 dollar level which you can see very clearly on the monthly line chart by joining together the high in 1980 and the high in 2011 and that line when you extend it on takes you to today at 55 to 57 dollars which is precisely why we've been stuck bouncing around the 55 to 57 support level for as long as we have the last you know few weeks so this level is clearly important but once we're when we're up at 100 plus silver you know myself my colleague patrick we weren't saying you know this is going to keep on going and keep on going if you look at the the actual evidence what you should be saying is that this is a this is a point where you should be selling into strength understand psychologically it's very difficult to sell into strength and if you're trading you will set a stop loss and you'll set a profit limit a target and the only time you get out of that position is when it either hits the stop loss or when it hits the profit limit and you hit your target and you just walk away with with your money and you don't care what the price does after that that's that's selling into strength if you can't do that you should be selling into weakness but if you're selling into weakness clearly you've come down away from the top uh but you need to get out when you're breaking clear technical support levels and they're important because technical traders and algorithms will also be recognizing that it's not some kind of you know weird mumbo jumbo the world of trading and investing is recognizing those support levels are being broken and therefore sentiment changes you know and i i really respect that opinion because i feel like you're a guy who stays within the boundaries of what he knows and you know i of course you know people watching this may not even know this but i studied economics and i worked in in business and strategy for many years there are some i would say macro signals that i look at maybe you would even call them narratives that i think are important in the equation of things i think the u.s debt and the devaluation of the u.s dollar is important i think that under investment in mining could result in a tighter market than maybe uh we have uh would have expected and i definitely think the central gold uh gold the central bank gold stacking narrative it is it is a narrative in a certain way is a very key ingredient into why gold has been so strong since uh since 2023 really when it started to reverse at the end of the year i would say really 2024 when it finally broke out but you know parking maybe those subtle differences aside i want to ask you how you differentiate between the point of view of a trader and an investor do you think that some of my viewers who are just long-term stackers i buy every month no matter the price because i'm preparing for retirement in 15 20 years do you think that they should be concerned over concerned about short-term price action or do you think that that is a is a let's say a reasonable retirement strategy to allocate a certain amount of your cash for a long-term retirement in the precious metals considering some of those macro signs that we're seeing yeah it's a massively important question that and uh like most people when i started with call it call it investing i wasn't really in my mind clear of the importance of the difference between trading and investing so let's say let's assume that we can say now that the price of silver isn't going to fall significantly and it's going to bounce around for a while then it's going to go up to to massive new highs and it might take a year to break out of you know back above 100 120 dollars even armed with that information how you react to that will be different depending whether you're trading investing or stacking and a lot of people do a mixture of all of those things so you don't have to be just one of those things you can be a combination trading is exactly what i described before you will have a trading strategy which traditionally involves setting up stop loss the price at which you'll get out if the price goes against you and setting your profit limit the price at which you'll get out if the price goes the way you want it to and depending on the your entry price you will have a reward to risk ratio okay and you might have a three to one or four to one reward to risk that means for every one dollar you lose you'll gain four on on these um on these trades the importance of that is that you can have three losing trades then one winner three losing trades one winner three losing trades one winner and you're still making money you're now if your net asset value your pot of money is growing because the one trade that succeeds more than compensates for the three that you've just lost because you're exiting your trades before you make too much of a loss so that's trading that's that's the principle of risk and money management if you're asking the question if someone says to me kevin should i be buying gold should i be selling gold that tells me you haven't understood whether you're a trader investor or a stacker because you should know the answer to that you enter the trade based on breaking above a resistance line and once you're above that resistance line you can enter the trade because you've broken above your barrier you enter the trade and then you the price should move up to the next resistance level and there's your there's your winning um margin if it then reverses and goes back down and you end up losing you have to exit before those losses get too big and if you do that you can have loser loser loser one win loser loser one win and still be making money that's trading now investing is very often trend based you need to identify the trend so if you're investing and in my mind trading is done over a period of no more than perhaps a few months you can enter a trade or exit trade in the same day you can enter and exit in the within the space of a week or you know you could call it a trade if i bought some silver and traded it from 30 dollars to 100 dollars you know that that took about a year to do that you know a year even 18 months that's that's still in my mind you can still call that trading because you're you're entering and exiting positions investing again to my mind anyway at least is done over a period of you buy something you invest in it you don't think about it too much for a few years you sell it later on what you know with the aim of taking that that fiat money and doing something useful with it that's investing in my mind over a multi-year or even multi-decade time frame but it's that investing thing that i think captures what most people want to do and so it's important to identify are we in a period where gold is trending up against the stock market or are we in a period where the stock market is trending up against gold and then that helps you very quickly determine whether you should be in in general equities and looking at the 11 sectors of the s&p you can pick out the sectors that are outperforming pick out the outperforming sectors whether it's health care financials and utilities whatever it happens to be and you can play the stronger sectors in the s&p over a number of years but when this rotation begins to take place and let me tell you something else as well which is going to probably surprise a lot of people the nasdaq peaked 26 years ago priced in gold 26 years ago year 2000 peak of the dot com boom that's when the nasdaq priced in gold was at its peak now priced in the u.s dollar of course it's it's gone on to new all-time highs same for the s&p same for the dow jones same for the russell but all the stock market indices peaked 26 years ago and this this new rotation that's taking place is taking place without them even getting back to the valuations that they were at 26 years ago so if you cherry pick your dates and you start in the year 2000 it's true to say that for the entire 21st century gold has outperformed all the stock market indices i'm not taking dividends into account before you put that in the comments because i know when you factor in dividends of course it changes but my counter to that is that over the last few years a new thing has come into existence where you can buy gold and silver and earn a yield on your gold and silver i show it in both ways on the channel by the way too you know both versus just the nominal price of the index as well as and you make a great point because that is one of the big trends that i've talked about not only in relation to stocks but really in relation also to goods and services that everything is really getting cheaper when measured in gold that in the u.s dollar terms or you know whatever your fiat currency is the the pound sterling euro the australian dollar whatever we haven't really benefited as much as we probably should have from the deflationary impact of a lot of the technologies that have been introduced in manufacturing processes etc etc that have caused the prices of computers to come down relative to where they were in the 1980s or televisions there are many things like that but again when measured in gold you see that you are benefiting from that when you're saving in that over a long period of time and that's really you know and that's why i love having these conversations because i think you know we get in the same room an investor and a trader i'm more on the investing side i think you're a bit of both but i think we're both doing a bit of both at the end of the day but you know i would say definitely the channel is more investment themed but i also love having somebody whose content is more trading themed in here because i think it gives a richer experience to the to the people watching now considering your the the the the charts that you're looking at right now the the weight of evidence i'd like to ask you does the weight of evidence point at gold and silver being at a bottom or at least close to a bottom right now what probability would you would you assign to that just out of curiosity i'll phrase it this way if we remember when gold was 121 and it fell over 40 percent within the space of a couple of days at that point it was true to say that the bulk of the correction was behind us that was months ago that was back in when was it february so that was months ago so the bulk of the correction was behind us back in february but here we are months later and we're still you know sort of uh languishing around those sort of price levels you know 60 65 so it goes back to time time is a it can grind you down in terms of price i would say that the price correction if not done is almost done as i mentioned before if we lose the 55 to 57 level then the correction in price will continue down probably into the low to mid 40s okay and that opens up more of an issue with time than it does with price actually because even if we go down to 40 say we fall another 20 while we've already fallen 50 something of that order 50 60 if we fall another 20 then it's still true to say that the vast majority of the correction is behind us so that's fine but the time element it could you know it could be a year plus before we really start to gain momentum and move to the upside it might be a month before we gain momentum and move to the upside if we start to make a a rapid um move from here this is where it's important to identify your key overhead resistance levels and 64 is important on the eight hour time frame um if you look at the eight hour chart for very very important level what you have from a technical and scientific point of view this is where we're at we've fallen clearly a lot the price is correct a lot corrected a lot so how do we know when that correction is behind us and we're going to start slowly moving to the upside well we know when former support which is now resistance and we've got this resistance above us now both and and these resistance lines on the chart by the way they're made up of volume trading volume um and it creates a sort of a physical barrier if you like for the price the price can go up to 64 on the eight hour chart and it's going to react there and probably struggle to get through that 64 level for a little while but when it breaks through it that resistance becomes support and that's your first piece of evidence and it's at what point you want to start getting back into the market if you're trading you could enter a trade on a breakout above 64 you can set your profit limit even not much higher somewhere around 70 75 and your stop loss maybe at 62 below that below that level so you've got a very good reward to risk there you can get a four to one plus reward to risk out that's great for trade you know anything three to one or better is brilliant so that's how you would enter a trade on a on a on an eight hour time frame you do the same thing on a daily time frame you just have to wait until that resistance above us is now is then turned into support horizontal resistance not some steeply sloping line on the chart because if you break out above a steeply sloping line it's not as strong evidence as if you break through a horizontal level because if you break through a steeply sloping line and go up for a bit and then come back to back test that line later on you're going to end up lower than you were when you broke through the line so horizontal support level if you break through it and then you come back to back test it you haven't got so far to fall and that's why it's much more solid usable level for trading in terms of investing that's by the way fantastic information for the people out there who are investors who have maybe wanted to dabble in that trading a little bit i really love that because i also have my resistance line it's actually just above 63 dollars it's 63 dollars 28 cents or something like that but i feel like we're probably speaking the same language yeah because i agree those horizontal lines if you look historically end up being much more significant there's a there's a sound scientific reason for that and it's because if you put the trading sorry not the trading if you put the volume profile on your chart you can see the you can see the trading volume on the side of levels it doesn't happen on a slant so what i mean is that for example at 64 dollars there's a lot of trading volume or 63 in that zone in the sort of mid-60s there's trade significant trading volume that creates that support and resistance level that we see when we're drawing our lines on the chart and there are other volume spikes higher up the chart but they're happening at a price level and of course the price level on the chart is horizontal you know if you're looking for the so if you put a line on at 64 or 63 on the chart it's a horizontal level it's not slanted you know if you put a slanted line on the chart it'll have lots of different prices on it horizontal line it's all the same price and that's where your your trading volume is the trading volume it's what's happening at that price level that creates the support and the resistance it's that it's the buy orders and the sell orders associated with that level that create the resistance people will identify that level as a point at which to get in because it was their point to get out the 64 dollar left 63 dollar level failed and the price went down to 55 well now it's a resistance so now the traders are looking at it the other way around if price goes through it then it'll go up to the next volume resistance so you can identify that on the chart you have like a volume we call it like a vacuum you have you have a sort of a vacuum in volume where there's not really much trading volume on the chart so the price gets sucked up to the next level where there's significant horizontal trading volume and it's at that volume level where the price is going to stall out again so i think we've we're quite similar with respect to silver i think gold needs to actually lead the way up though i just wanted to in case we don't touch on this again you mentioned yields a short while ago and i just want to remind people that we've had a 40 year downtrend in the u.s 10 year yield if you go pre 1980 we had a multi-decade uptrend in 10 year yields we know what happened with gold and silver in that multi-decade uptrend as we came out of world war ii through the 1950s and into the 1960s and 70s something was happening back then that is happening today and i don't mean wars in the middle east i don't mean the oil crisis although that's all relevant i'm talking about the 10 year yield and the debt dynamics the reason that we were in 1980 interest rates were raised to whatever they were 14 15 16 percent and the 10 year yields were up at the same level and as 10 year yields rose which is what they're doing today gold and silver and commodities had their biggest bull runs in history never been matched since although we had a good stab at it between 2000 2012 so so the dynamic the debt dynamics and this is the important bit we were able it was mathematically possible to have a 15 16 interest rate and bond yield because debt to gdp was dropping debt to gdp fell from wherever it was 30 odd percent so 70 odd percent to 30 or so as that as we went through the 1970s so debt to gdp went from 70 to 60 to 50 to 40 and that means that the sums add up you can have a higher rate of interest if your debt to gdp is lower now we look at today and that debt to gdp i think i'm right in saying peaked at about 129 percent in now it's not much of a change but it's interesting to see that over the last few years where you might have expected debt to gdp to go up it hasn't it's gone down the main reason i mention it is because a lot of people say that u.s 10 years going up is going to crush gold and silver and commodities and all that sort of stuff well yeah you know that it recently bias during that 40 downtrend of 10-year yields every time that's it's probably true to say that when there was an uptick in the 10-year yields it didn't do gold much good but i'll put it this way we had a 40-year downtrend and gold still managed to rise by by well in 1980 what was it 850 dollars and by the end of that 40-year downtrend it was something like two and a half thousand dollars so gold had gone up despite or you know gold had gone up but not very much despite the descending yields for 40 years now look at the previous era when the years 10 years were going up and gold went up by hundreds and hundreds of percent in a much shorter period of time so it's the it's the opposite of what most people think we've got a limited data set i accept that you know the number of previous examples of this is limited but the evidence suggests that if we have an environment where yields are going up and it could potentially be stagflationary combined with um you know an economy that's not doing very well regardless of whatever numbers the government might throw at us a rising 10-year yield environment there's no reason why that can't promote and encourage gold to go bonkers and that's exactly what's happened because the 10-year yield broke out in 2022 and gold and silver has gone you know bonkers since then in a way that they haven't done previously so we're in the early stages of a potential enormous era for precious metals and all of their friends their friends being commodities energy oil soft commodities base metals all that kind of stuff the bond market is clearly a major factor in influencing where they're going to go and in the simplest terms that i've been talking about it to my audience is just bringing up the chart of tlt and showing how this chart is showing us bonds are very weak right now the bond market is in a bear market after a multi-decade bull market and that is very significant in determining where safe haven money is going to go when finally that rotation out of stocks happens i really thank you for your time i want to ask you just a couple more questions before we sign off a little game i call this or that that a lot of the viewers uh like to like to see me play if you have to own something for the next three to five years i'm just going to name a couple things you tell me which one you would prefer to own so next three to five year kind of timeline gold or silver silver silver or silver mining stocks silver silver or copper silver silver or copper mining stocks silver silver or oil tricky one you talk about the yes yeah i would say i'm gonna say silver but it's a close run thing well there you have it folks this man is bullish on silver thank you so much kevin for joining me for this video i think it was a great video i really enjoyed talking to you man yeah ditto yeah no it's it's always i appreciate the time you know that you're giving me to try and get some of these messages across and i a lot of the time it can appear a little bit geeky and a little bit sort of over scientific and i'm just trying to put it into you know terms that people can can use and benefit from it's a big learning experience and more than anything else it's a it's an educational journey for other people isn't it really appreciate your time coming on here today and i hope that we can do it again maybe next year early next year just to see how the market's developing and run over things yeah definitely look forward to that anytime perfect cheers