wolf financial: peter schiff's gold surge: is now the time to buy? inflation, rates & usd analysis

So I think you have a massive sell America trade. That's just beginning, you know, it's starting with bonds, but I think it's going to, you know, also going to be in stocks and this is just a big global shift that's starting and with central banks, they're getting out of dollars and they're getting into gold. That's pretty obvious. Good morning, everybody coming to you live from Puerto Rico on Tuesday, October 14th at 1136 AM with legendary investor, Peter Schiff, talking about why gold is on the run, really of all time, we are seeing new highs daily. The stock market is seeing a ton of volatility right now, suffering from tariff talk and more, but gold just continues to move up along with other precious metals. Peter, so excited to have you on today to talk about this. I'm becoming a bigger gold bug by the week. I feel I moved an additional 5% of my retirement portfolio into gold last week. So I am on the train. Welcome to the show. Thank you. I don't know how legendary I am, but you look pretty young to have a retirement account. So I guess that's, that's good. Everybody's got to start. Sometime is my theory on it. Hey, and I came in Puerto Rico, save on taxes. I'm thinking about retirement pretty strong. So you can retire a lot earlier when you don't have to split all your money with the government. That is what they say. So we're all time highs right now on gold. We've surpassed 4,000. I thought it was so interesting last week when we were on the live stream and you talked about that Morgan Stanley note of 60, 2020 stocks, bonds, gold. It seemed like there's a bit of a revolution happening here. We're also seeing for the first time banks around the world holding more gold than the U S dollar. So what's happening? Why now? Why 2025? Well, you know, I guess it's a confluence of events. I mean, I think a lot of it started with Biden and the sanctions against Russia. I think the world was already slowly moving away from dollars before then. But I think that created an added incentive to speed it up a bit. And, and then I think when the deficits really exploded too under Biden and then Trump came in and instead of the Republicans doing something to reign in all that spending, they preserved it all and then increased it. And, and Donald Trump was a big champion of the big, beautiful bill. And I think that really sent the message that look, there is no hope that the U S will ever get his fiscal house in order, uh, whatever we talked about with doge, uh, all of that was a bunch of BS. So we're never going to reduce the trajectory of this debt. It's going to explode. It's completely unpayable, uh, even now, but it's going to get a lot bigger. And then Donald Trump did a lot of other things that I think. Uh, accelerated it one, the tariffs and, and vilifying all of our trading partners, uh, giving them less of a reason to vendor finance us. And, and then, uh, the fed bashing, uh, firing a cook, we need lower rates. Powell's an idiot. He's a moron. We need big rate cuts. You know, this, I think really, uh, throws into question the credibility of the fed, which, you know, I've questioned for a long time. I never thought there was that much real independence, but I think this means that the pretense is, is being dropped. And I think all of that undermines confidence in the long-term value of the dollar and, and therefore, you know, trading partners have less incentives who hold dollars to invest them in treasuries and mortgage backs. And, and then of course, you know, the U S markets have been so overvalued because so much money had come in here, uh, that now it's starting to come out. So I think you have a massive sell America trade. That's just beginning, you know, it's starting with bonds, but I think it's you know, also going to be in stocks. And, uh, and this is just a big, uh, global shift that's starting and with central banks, they're getting out of dollars and they're getting into gold. That's pretty obvious. I mean, that's why gold is almost $4,200 an ounce. Uh, and it's going a lot higher because central banks have a lot more gold to buy. They have a lot more dollars to sell, but now investors are just beginning to get in on the action. They're trying, they're finally figuring out, you know, what I figured out a long time ago, because we've been buying gold and gold stocks for our clients for a couple of decades now. Uh, and now I've got a little company, but before that, I, you know, kind of was the only one in the trade really. Uh, as far as in, you know, maybe in professional asset managers, I mean, there's plenty of gold bugs out there other than me, but not that many, you know, in, uh, you know, wall street. Yeah, absolutely. So big currency debasement trade is a lot of what I'm hearing from you getting exemplified by Trump showing, Hey, there's not going to be a pullback and I'm going to be in office for another three and a half years. So deal with this, right? We're going to see a continuation of it. You have gold up, I believe over 7 trillion or in market cap. Yep. This year, over 7 trillion in market cap, silver's in the top 10 as well. Why gold over silver? And then also we've talked about platinum and other precious metals seem to be rising. Do you see everything in a similar bucket? Is it different buckets? Yeah, well, I think inflation is driving all these, uh, metals higher. And I think that that's going to continue to be the case. And then people will be buying it as a way to protect themselves against inflation. I think for a while the trade was interrupted by the fascination or fixation, uh, with Bitcoin and crypto. And a lot of people thought that, well, they were going to get an inflation hedge with Bitcoin. And I think they're starting to realize that that's not the case. But I think what made Bitcoin really shine was the, you know, 10 years or so where gold went sideways. And it was during a period of time where gold was kind of a sleep. Bitcoin really got to shine and get a lot of money that might have been frustrated holding gold and going nowhere. They were tempted to get into Bitcoin because it was making a lot of progress, uh, that goal was not, but you know, gold was just kind of consolidating the gains from before Bitcoin even showed up, right? Cause gold went from 300 to 1900 before anybody ever heard of Bitcoin. And it was in that consolidation phase that Bitcoin gained its popularity. But now the gold has reasserted itself. And now that gold is rising, uh, it's doubled in the last two years and it's continuing to move up almost every day. Um, there's no reason for gold investors to be frustrated. There's no reason for them to seek out an alternative. They don't need digital gold. The real thing is doing great. But meanwhile, digital gold is not digital gold. It's fool's gold. Uh, and, and I think the fools are going to, uh, figure that, learn, figure this out the hard way. Uh, but I think that gold is now, uh, not, I think losing its, uh, investors. I think more and more money is going to be gravitating to gold. And I think a lot of it is going to come out of crypto. I have a quick question on Bitcoin since you brought up the topic, what's the best case you've ever heard for Bitcoin and what's the flaw in it? Well, the biggest flaw is that it doesn't have any real value. So there's no, you know, there's no, uh, underlying demand like there is for gold. I mean, first of all, there is a demand for gold as money because historically it's been money. So the central banks use it as money, even if people don't, but there's a real commodity there. There's a, a very valuable, precious metals that has unique properties, uh, that make gold valuable. Not just because it's scarce, but because of the things that you could do with gold that you can't do with other metals. Uh, so there's real buyers who need gold and who are buying gold every year, uh, because they need it. And more people would buy gold if it was less expensive, but because it is so expensive. Uh, in many cases, other metals are used that don't do the job as good as gold, but they do it good enough given the price disparity, but to the extent that gold really did get cheap, you know, more people would use it in more applications, uh, if it went down. So you have this natural buyer for gold. Uh, but Bitcoin, yeah, there are no natural buyers cause you can't do anything with Bitcoin. The only buyers are speculators. The only reason people buy Bitcoin is because they think the price will go up and it's only going to go up. If somebody else buys it for a higher price, you don't buy it to transact with it, because if you're going to transact, you wouldn't use Bitcoin. There's all sorts of other cryptos that are cheaper and faster to actually use, but nobody even uses those either. I mean, pretty much the only thing anybody really uses crypto for is to gamble with it. You know, it's just a giant casino and people speculate on which one they think is going to go up. Um, so the whole thing is just a mania. You know, I mean, the, the best argument for Bitcoin, I think was the decentralized nature, the anonymity, which is kind of lost, you know, initially it was a way to avoid government scrutiny, uh, KYC AML to kind of move money around in private because there were so many government spies, not that you need to be a criminal to not want the government to know what you're doing. I think there's a value to privacy. And so that was something that was originally appealing about Bitcoin. And that, what I liked about it when I first heard about it, you know, back in 2011 or so, you know, and I mean, I thought about buying it for that reason because I thought, you know, uh, but I, I, I just didn't know how much demand there would be for that feature and it's lost that feature anyway, uh, but what kept me out of it was it wasn't unique. Uh, it wasn't really scarce in that, you know, there was an unlimited number of cryptocurrencies. That was my first question. When I learned about it, I said, well, what prevents somebody else from making another one? And it was like, well, nothing. So I said, so there can be more Bitcoins. Yes. Just a different name. And there's, there's no limit to how many it was open sourced. Anybody can copy it. And so those are some of the original things that, that got me to think, well, you know, well, why, you know, why am I going to buy it? I mean, I'm just, you know, of course, obviously if I go back in time, I would definitely do that. Yeah. I mean, it was, I can't remember if it was under a dollar or over a dollar. I forget it was definitely under $10. It may have been under $1. Um, and I might've remember thinking, gee, Bitcoin's a dollar now. Well, maybe I should have bought it, but I can't remember, but it was low. And I, I, I almost threw it. I don't know what I was thinking of putting in, you know, 10 grand or something, or just to have it. But back then, I mean, you got a lot of Bitcoin for 10 grand, but it was like, but I got a lot of nothing. I mean, nobody really cared about it. It was like, it was like, you know, what was I buying? I didn't know what I was doing. It's fair. You, you mentioned also purchasing gold stocks, uh, for clients. So I'm curious how you think about that. Are you gravitating towards gold mining stocks? Is it like a Kinross? Oh yeah. I've been buying, I've been buying gold mining stocks for a long time. And I mean that the bulk of my personal portfolio on my, any assets that I control my, in my family for publicly traded securities, more than half of my portfolio is invested in gold and silver mining stocks and all of my biggest positions, individual names are miners. So, um, yeah. And I, and I still think that they're cheap. I haven't sold. I've been buying these stocks for 20 years and I've, I've, I've never sold them. And, um, I, I bought every, every big drip, every big drop. I bought more, you know, I, I was so tempted to add more just in the last couple of months, but I, you know, I didn't do it because, you know, I, I haven't bought the rallies, but I really felt good about this rally that it would just really continue. And so far it has. It looks, this is the strongest I think I've ever seen the stocks look and I, and I love the sentiment that it's, you know, there's not a lot of excitement. There's not a lot of retail participation. There's still a lot of nervousness and fear in the market. There's a lot of, you know, uncertainty and doubt. Uh, and, uh, it's just a climbing this wall or worry, but it just keeps on climbing, uh, and the stocks I think are still cheap, even though they've doubled and tripled and some have quadrupled. Their earnings have gone up even faster than that. So when your stock isn't even keeping pace with your earnings, it's clearly, you know, uh, you know, not even close to like a bubble, like you've gotten so many other assets. Yeah. I spoke last night with, uh, the CEO of a two gold, which is in the junior mining exploration area. And he was explaining to me that for every 1% that goal goes up, these mining companies are experiencing at least double that essentially. Uh, just because of the economics, do you place different buckets around junior miners versus the larger mining firms? How, how do you allocate? Yeah, well, the exploration stocks are very different because they don't actually have any earnings yet. They don't name, they might not have any gold, so it's very different. But the producers, the big producers, right. Companies that are in produce production, they should get more than two X. I mean, I think sometimes goal goes up a percent. They should go up three, 4%. Because it's, it's the earnings that really counts. So a small increase in the gold price, assuming that the cost of mining doesn't go up that entire increase, uh, goes into your, your bottom line and depending on how, what your margins are, I mean, the higher cost producers actually benefit more, uh, from the increase in the because it might, I mean, let, let's say, you know, I'll just make some numbers up, but let's say, you know, your, your, your, your, your cost of production is nine and you're selling it 10. And then what you're selling goes from 10 to 11. Now your profits go from one to two, you've doubled your profits. So a 10% move up in your, the price of your product has doubled your profits. So if my profits double, you know, put a PE on that, what kind of effect that has right now? If, if, if I'm a lower cost producer, if I'm producing at $5 and I'm selling it 10 and it goes from 10 to 11, my profits go from five to six. That's a 20% increase. So, so the, the lower cost companies, why is, while it's good to be a low cost company because you're making more money, it's the higher cost companies that are going to be even more impacted by the increase in the price. But I expect the price of gold to move up dramatically still. I mean, I still think that $10,000 is, is, is, is a low end of where I think gold is going. I think it's going to go probably, you know, much higher than 10,000. Um, do you think so consolidation prior to there? I mean, looking at this parabolic move that we've had, well, I don't know that it's parabolic. I mean, we've doubled over the past two years, but we haven't gone straight up yet. I mean, if, if we did just go straight up vertical and gold went like straight up to 10,000, yeah, we'd probably get a decent pullback, but I haven't even seen, you know, yesterday we had a $90 rise. I haven't seen a day where we had a hundred dollar rise. I've seen, I have memories of days where gold dropped a hundred dollars, but I don't know any time where it's up. And of course, a hundred dollars now is not even that much when gold's at 4,000. I I've watched gold drop a hundred dollars in one day when it was under 2,000. So the biggest days that I can still recall in gold have been down days, but I think we're going to get some big days. I've not only, I think we're going to get a hundred dollar day in the near future. I think we're going to have a $200 day in the near, so I think we're going to start to see gold accelerate it, the pace of its, of its, of its rise. You know, in fact, if we were getting economic data, you know, because the government is shut down, we're not getting any of the data, but I bet all the data would be weak and that would be good for gold, but you know, we're not getting that data there. Yeah. It's a good point. You talked last week a little bit about the economy and how weak it is compared to people looking at the stock market. One thing I just wanted to touch on for a second, because you're the only person I heard discussing it was that note from Morgan Stanley about the switch from the 60, 40 portfolio to 60, 20, 20, 20% being gold. That feels I've seen more and more articles getting written about it. That feels like that could be a massive catalyst. Are there maybe any thoughts on that? And then any additional catalysts, other banks that you could see coming into the picture there and what that could use the price of gold? Yeah. Look, I think that's, that's a huge potential catalyst because if that gets adopted, not just by Morgan Stanley, but even Morgan Stanley adopting it, I mean, they've got a pretty big book of business, but if wall street decides, you know, and this will be the first time since I've, you know, been working in the financial industry, which is over 35 years. But if wall street decides that, you know, I guess Peter Schiff was right. Um, all of our clients should have some money in gold. Uh, and 20% is actually a pretty big allocation. And even I was like, well, five to 10 is kind of a minimum. Now, if somebody wanted 20, that was okay. But I didn't come out and say you had to have 20, but you know, if wall street is saying 20% gold, that's a big allocation, uh, when you think about all the money that they manage and especially when the typical portfolio of Morgan Stanley and other big firms like Merrill Lynch probably has no allocation to gold, not, not, not, I mean, nothing. And so to go from zero to 20 for a lot of accounts, that's big. And what's also big is where's the money coming from. They're saying to sell half your bonds. So it's really a sell signal on bonds, which is very negative for the U S because we need the U S government needs to sell a lot of bonds and foreign central banks are not the big buyers anymore. They want gold. So uncle Sam was probably counting on Americans to buy the bonds. Well, now Americans are going to be selling bonds, not buying bonds. Cause if you're going to go from 40% bonds to 20% bonds, you got to sell half your bonds. So, you know, it's good for gold, uh, bad for bonds. Uh, but what it actually means is if investors don't want to buy bonds and foreign central banks don't want to buy bonds, who's going to buy those bonds? The fed. Where's the fed going to get the money? It's going to print it. That's great for gold. So it's a self fulfilling prophecy. If Americans sell bonds to buy gold, the fed is going to print money to buy the bonds that Americans sold, which is going to make the gold that they bought go up even more. Yeah. It kind of feels like betting on the house right now is really where it seems everybody's in the casino, right? They're printing money, running around and you can just be the house with gold. Uh-huh. Oh yeah. I mean, and it's also, you know, you're, you're betting against, uh, the, the, the, the government. I mean, they're going to keep on printing money. You're just betting that the government is going to stay fiscally irresponsible, but he's going to stay reckless. You know, whenever they say don't fight the fed. I don't fight the fed. That's why I own gold. I know the fed is going to continue to make the same mistakes that it's made for decades, only on a bigger scale. That's what the fed does. They don't learn from their mistakes. They just repeat them bigger. And so I'm going to bet the fed is going to continue printing money. They're going to continue cutting interest rates. And how do you bet that the fed continues to be reckless and irresponsible? You own gold and it's the same bet on our politicians. Do you think Congress? Do you think a president is ever going to be fiscally responsible? No. Right. So how do you, how do you play that? You buy gold. That's that, you know, and it's kind of like the one shirt thing that's out there. That's why gold has been going up. You know, gold was at $250 an ounce in 1999. And at that time, the Dow peaked at over 11,000. So at one point in 1999, the Dow was worth 45 ounces of gold. Now it's worth 11. It's down by 75% in 26 years. That is a trend and it is a major historic bear market with no end in sight. And I think we're, I think we're going to keep on going until you can buy the entire Dow Jones with less than two ounces of gold, another, another 80% down in the move. They're making me want to go out and buy some more gold here today. Peter, I know that your time was limited and you have to jump off. We would love to continue the conversation anytime, get more people into the know and understanding the facts of what's happening here. Any final comments today for the audience on this meteoric rise that we're seeing? Yeah, just look, don't be afraid to buy the highs, uh, because, uh, they're not going to be the highs much longer. Uh, I think the only people who buy gold and silver are going to be buying the highs. And as I've been saying, the longer you wait to buy the high, the higher, the high you're going to buy. So, uh, this picks them up. My company shift gold. We'll get you a great price on gold and silver. We got a brand new, uh, online shopping experience. Of course, we got great, uh, representatives that can also help you, uh, you know, choose the right metal. Uh, but if you're a do-it-yourself kind of guy, you could just, you know, go on the website, pull up your shopping cart, check out, pay, and we'll ship your gold and silver. Uh, but if you want to get in on these mining stocks, you know, my goal fund and I it's, we got a lot of juniors in there, which is, I why I think we have a lot of built-in, uh, outperformance in years ahead. We've underperformed this year because of our waiting to these small stocks. Uh, but I think that when they start to move, they're going to really move, but it's the Europe Pacific gold fund. E P G I X is the symbol to buy my fund. No load, any discount broker, or go to our website at euro pack.com. You can see the URL above my, my shoulder, talk to the representatives. We can buy the funds for you. You can buy them directly on my fund, on my website. We also have separately managed accounts, uh, where we manage portfolios, not just of gold stocks, but of dividend paying stocks, you know, foreign stocks, emerging market. I think that's where the action is. Look, my, my, uh, dividend payer fund, my global dividend payer fund. That's not a gold fund is up almost 50% so far in the year. So this is, you know, showing the flows of money, uh, out of us stocks into international stocks. That's one of the reasons that the foreign markets are outperforming the U S market so far this year by a historic percentage. And I think this is the beginning of a trend that's going to last for many, many years. And so people need to, uh, get on board with that. Um, I got a free newsletter. People can sign up for it. Shift sovereign.com, uh, is, uh, the website for the, uh, the letter. And, uh, just follow me, listen to my podcast, uh, shift, uh, radio on my YouTube channel, Peter Schiff. I have a YouTube channel now too, uh, from shift gold and follow me on X. I mean, that's where I am the most prolific. I'm constantly posting stuff on, uh, the X platform. I've got over 1.2 million, uh, followers there. So I know that when I post something, at least there are people there to pay attention to it, but I need to have more. So follow me and then get your friends to follow me. Absolutely. Uh, go ahead and check out Peter on all platforms. I screen-shared if you want to go and buy some gold, that website, he listed out all of the rest of the URLs and the sites, make sure that you're following him a lot of incredible insights, Peter. Thank you so much for joining me on the wolf show today. We'll be back with more content soon. This replay will be available on both X YouTube and LinkedIn. Check it out wherever you are. We have an amazing of your day.