Glide-Bomb Nightmare Deepens, Deep Infiltrations & Deadly Delusion | Ukraine Map Update

G'day Legends, I hope you are having a fantastic day and a brilliant week so far. Legends, this may be the last time you see me for a couple of days, potentially even a few weeks, as I am travelling tomorrow to bring you better content but also explore other areas of the world for personal development so I can deliver to you in the future perspectives, more information as we step into a more complex world, an international theatre. Now of course on this channel the only ways I make money is off the AdSense of Google, host Red Ads or off donations and a lot of this over the past say couple of years has really been restricting on channels like mine so if you'd like to support what I do and then the ability to do trips like this, please consider the links down below because none of my content is ever behind paywalls and I don't take any money from some of the behind the scenes offers that many on these websites do. So thank you for that Legends but I'll look forward to being back with you soon, hopefully I can bring you some interesting stuff. Today, well we have a lot to talk about, we're going to look at strikes, we're going to talk about interceptors, we're going to talk about territorial changes in July and where it has sped up and where deep state, I'm sorry but the interface is fantastic, using it as a baseline maybe but at this point in time the map just has so much influence from Ukrainian official agencies that it's withholding information for months. We're going to talk about Kramatorsk agglomeration, I know every single day you'll be like Willie I'm sick of hearing about it but the reason you're hearing about it it is the primary front line, it is going to be the linchpin for where this war goes whether it's a linchpin in negotiations and one of the key elements to discuss or the linchpin in Pyrrhic victories losses given the cost of holding or even taking this what could we see beyond it. We'll talk about Orekiv, an area which you may be familiar with if you've watched me for some time, somewhere I came under small arms fire, well we have Russian infiltrators there today, we'll talk about the bombardment up in the north and if we have time we'll talk about how this war is changing, we'll talk about UGVs so ground vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles as well and further mechanized assaults and how that reintroduction could work but the limitations considerations of doing so, so legends a lot to get stuck into. Now as I am filming this video at 10 in the morning on the 5th of August there is a large missile assault going into Ukraine targeting primarily Kyiv at the moment and you can see videos like this, this is where there has been a strike and then you'll see then these Iskander clusters landing in and around these positions and at this point in time from Mr Hudson war mapping and others are suggesting this there has been an interception rate of zero that Ukraine is out of interceptor missiles, likely not out of all of them but out of the type that can actually intercept these style of offensive munitions and yes you see a lot of accounts calling for we need more Patriots, we need more this, that's all well and good, America they are saying well we need more as well and looking at their manufacturing if you look at CBS or Reuters or CNN today they are speaking about how America has critical shortages not just of air defense but also of offensive weapons of things like HIMARS, of other types of systems like tomahawks, there is a huge shortage and America's deterrence against other great state powers it is at an all-time low. Will we see powers take advantage of that? In my opinion no, we have seen that war even against middling powers is incredibly costly and may not work given Iran and Ukraine and even the Houthis that you may have to in the modern war modern world take different approaches. Right so we see a lot of Ukrainian attacks against wild berries and of course these burn like you wouldn't believe black smoke pouring out we have this member of Finnish parliament and a doctor of military sciences so academic in military surely he knows what he's on about something's happening that could change the course of the war well how many times have we heard that sentence Ukraine is striking at wild berries massive logistic center it's the 10th strike in a few weeks Ukraine is aiming to paralyze Russia's logistical nervous system wild berries is Russian amazon what they sell is bullshit larp military gear it's not actually used little bits of pieces it might be but it'd be like one percent of gear that doesn't come through then official supplies through the military network and maybe some components for drones likely some okay fair nowhere near large amounts or large percentages this is not critical logistics for the military it's a pretty low threshold at the moment in this war of what can be targeted what I'd ask is you don't think that the Russian government can order millions of drone parts directly from their neighbor of China that make all of these drone parts for far cheaper than going through a private company that's like the wish version of Amazon if your strikes are reduced to striking Amazon or using sui bombers in Moscow I'll say that the tide hasn't shifted and will that then be the the pin that breaks the the bear's back no but we have seen a disgusting attack carried out as well as others like this in this region we see from the footage it appears that a Russian drone is hunting a Ukrainian civilian striking him and it's being reported that he was killed from this Russian page they claim that the man was a collaborator other people are trying to cope saying that it was a Ukrainian drone what we're seeing is we're not seeing evidence supplied here is there a lack of evidence saying exactly whose drone this is yeah maybe on this particular case but we have seen drone attacks from Russian units carried out in her song against then civilians in that area and things like this are disgusting but I always find it very very convenient that people will quickly jump and call this out and share it through everything but when you have a female courier unknowingly carrying a bomb into a restaurant in a capital and exploding her and others that you're silent on it what I'm saying is it is all shocking and in my opinion not even my opinion in a humane world at the end of this war we would have thousands upon thousands of Ukrainian and Russian drone operators arrested for war crimes it is disgusting now we won't see that occur obviously but we are absolutely on this channel not just turning a blind eye to it like many are because you I like the colors of his patch it's bullshit and there's just too much that completely goes without notice or the people will have some mental gymnastics to justify now let's look back at July now what I will say is in the next coming days maybe week I'll compile all of this into the charts that I show at the beginning of a new month so Russian advances is 387.2 km2 according to Mr. AMK the majority of this advance made in the primary front line of Donetsk remember advances are not everything it needs to be contextualized one kilometer square in Donetsk Oblast is worth a shitload more than in other areas Ukraine they were down by 49.6 they made about 117.3 km2 so these are the gross figures then we come down to the net figure and close enough to 270 km2 in favor of Russia up over 4800 compared to June at least on AMK's figures now I'll compile all of this into one chart but again we need to look at where these are being made how much is in the gross figure and of course the net territory is not a great way to assess who is winning or losing the war you could easily lose you could easily win the war easily win the war but you could win a nutritional war without making any kilometer squares but it's still one of the vectors we need to look at specifically Donetsk Oblast as it moves on Kramatorsk Slovyansk why because as the territory moves on this as FABs become more accurate more efficient as drones become more accurate more efficient the the attrition will then increase from the territory then clamping down on Slovyansk Kramatorsk it's not irrelevant but it's not the only metric but we need to look at deep state as well well this is difficult them saying 88 kilometers squares in Russia's favor but it goes a little bit further than this they say the enemy then the Ukrainian defense forces liberated now again I guarantee the world's media will say that July was in net positive for Ukraine and they'll quote some bullshit like ISW not literally the official map but they say it's an important detail this is the net change increased from May to July because successive defense forces Ukrainian defense forces reported with a delay in July reduced the area occupied by the enemy by 52 kilometer squares uh the thus net increase for the enemy in July could be as high as 88 kilometer squares so due to delays are saying it's complex calculations your operational security well they had to delay for completion of operations OPSEC all this the problem is though is when you're relying here on on official announcement so you're taking a Ukrainian official announcement as gospel a Russian one as bullshit and in my opinion you say well no your mapping needs to be separate from just official announcement announcements and separate from just geolocations and you're delaying any of this due to those well it's destroyed the credibility reliability of the map because if it's day-to-day but you are holding off for months at a time it's just it doesn't work um they talk about the most difficult made minor but significant gains yes it wasn't that minor though it sped up a lot and it sped up actually more in August and again it is the most important area it's also the most fortified area let's say the task of the Russians to occupy Donetsk region by 26 is unrealistic at the current rate they'll not have a chance by 2027 **** me how many times do we need to say that warfare like this isn't linear it may not be occupied by 2030 it might be occupied by February 26 or 27 we don't know but let's not take into account in this being sarcastic that as I said as it gets closer with thousands upon thousands of hundreds to thousands of kilograms of fabs are launching on two relatively small citadel cities I mean small in geographic uh uh distance across so relatively small they can cause huge damage let's not consider at all the attrition that is going to be caused on these areas by that and then the movements beyond again as we've said the goal is attrition not the capture of territory capture of territory is good in this but attrition is the goal and if you can relinquish territory to increase attrition it will be done so this are the current rate of this or that what you've got is two major areas basically having break-ins up to five kilometers away and getting just pounded by massive massive tonnage of munitions tens of thousands of kilograms a day the role of infantry has significantly decreased over the past year it's possible to witness two or three drone crews flying towards the same target simultaneously each trying to destroy it for the e points for a kill so that also sort of means if you've actually got a desaturation of forces and then less relevant those drones become somewhat less relevant as well as you have one extension saturation of forces too let's have a look then at this area as we're speaking about it well let's have a look at this this is a sergeant the 53rd mech in this area I have nothing good to report in the Donetsk direction specifically the direction of Kramatorsk Slovyansk Russian drones are flying everywhere explosions are heard and felt continuously it's important not to sugarcoat the facts it's bad and by all realistic assessment it is very bad here and as I've said it will not be the area where the guns fall silent but it will either be a massive linchpin in negotiations one of the prior primary parts for up for negotiation or the area where the battles and attrition is so large it will be the decider for the outcome of this war militarily and could there be further stepping rearwards on this I personally don't think Ukraine in their manpower situation can afford to step in to these battles and I think the negotiations which Zolensky and Budinov are suggesting I think that tracks on my assessment as well because we're also seeing as the front line moves up as Ukraine has very little interceptors well the increase in these attacks is growing continued high activity of Su-34s Su-35s over Donetsk Lugansk as Russia continues large-scale bombing campaign these are the areas we're speaking of right here also an attack helicopter which is significantly more vulnerable than a fighter jet is detected flying southwest over southeastern Lugansk Oblast so right out in here again once we start seeing more of this brought forward that tells us a lot that said air defense we speak of typically against jets is either off air-to-air platforms like an F-16 MiG-29 or of a platform like a Patriot things like those helicopters are more vulnerable to drones and manpads let's have a look here because this is further 25 minutes ago but this was 15 hours ago three Russian Su-34s carried out another unusual bombing raid this time on Slavyansk Kramatorsk remember they're dropping either four by 500 kilogram bombs each or two by 1500 or one by 3000 these are massive like yesterday these aircraft flew extremely close to the front line compared to usual combat sorties launches were carried out 14 19 and 20 kilometers respectively near Torshkiy, Rozhdelivka and Kremenar whilst they didn't fly as close as yesterday's record of seven kilometers this is extremely close as they usually they usually they launch from 40 to 45 kilometers behind the front line additionally no Su-35s were covering them during this bombing run all this indicates Russia is fairly confident that Ukraine currently does not have any Patriot PAC-23 interceptors available to shoot them down shoot down their aviation remember the Su-35s typically are up with the Su-34s having a flight in tandem and they'll be carrying out with anti-radiation missiles if they start getting lased by radar Su-34 will try and pull away and it will either cover the Su-34 or go after a kill on the system trying to kill the Su-34 therefore be able to carry out much uh much longer range much longer range launches of glide bombs including the launch of heavier 1500 and 3000s the attached map shows the approximate flight routes of the aircraft and the glide bombs detected by Ukrainian radars again we're speaking is Kramatorsk Slovyansk and this is why people don't take into account is the saturation the devastation even the psychological impact these weapons unimpeded can inflict upon the remaining fortress cities and the defenders within them this should be of massive concern and what have we spoken about that hold destroy a trip maneuver we speak about this and what those can do is working with the drones which those FPVs are flying right around Kramatorsk and Slovyansk as I've showed you in previous videos they can hold troops in place in areas of which of course a drone can't destroy it doesn't have enough munition but they can hold forces in place work with then larger artillery platforms such as a Su-34 and drop a 1500 kilogram bomb on it and this is every time people speak about attrition they always just go well I've seen this hit by a drone they don't take into account what over 8,800 FABs landing on the front line per month would actually do let's move just down to the south around Kostiantynivka and we have a Ukrainian heavy bomber drone I believe a vampire drone working on Russian positions and troops around Olexivko-Druzhkivka so about 10 kilometers behind the accepted line of control here as this isn't a rare case but we have further and further infiltrations in the direction of Kramatorsk as Kostiantynivka has come under mostly Russian control but it has fallen effectively and operationally a little bit of acceptance around Shakhovka here but none around the Dombropillia sector which maps and geolocations are showing a slight withdrawal of Ukrainian forces in here as well as Russia making further ground in and around Khatynivka in and around Vodyansk and Belitsk as well keeping on this entire sector right let's move then further down to the west an area which you'll be familiar with of Orekiv now what we know this map has been incorrect here for at least two years back when I was in my old studio this was still incorrect why well it makes sense because the Ukrainian 23 offensive pushed primarily around Robotnay now we saw the overall failure of that it was pushed at least a year too early but wanting to not show all of that has been of course rolled back which we know that it has but Orekiv this is a very important area and if you want a really simple way to look at what are important cities zoom in on them and see just the amount of connecting routes in and out and have a look at this you've got several coming in and out of here supplying out into the west and into the east and down into the south you can see when you zoom in on somewhere like this well it's not as important you can also see when you come across to Guliya Pole you can see see that like sort of spider coming out it's just a very simple way if you just want a baseline yeah it's important and also the hills behind Orekiv overlook the city actual right up in here very important area now I know for a fact because I got shot at that around the train line here the Russians were right up into here in the beginning of the war well the Russians have had infiltrators back into Orekiv are they holding positions in here well we don't know it's too early to confirm that likely not but 9.5 kilometers away from the closest area they're in these houses just in here as per this footage we are seeing so you'll see this is then Ukrainian drone footage striking then Russian positions in the house here infiltrators has it been turned back we don't know Mr Playfra he says in the eastern most corner which is where we've seen them as per the geolocation possibly DRGs infiltrated up through Novodenovka into this direction I don't have any information the fate of the Russian group it definitely seems like a one-time sabotage reconnaissance operation in the city we'll see see if they're still hiding there or not nonetheless Ukrainian engineering obstacles aren't strong in this area my question is how this front line here has relatively stayed steady for years and we see this again and again and the Russians seem to have a possibility of conducting such actions in particular conditions so given the conditions moving 10 kilometers plus up through these obstacles into then a fortress city like Orekiv big big problem and people oh you can't build those obstacles or right on the front line well then how did the Surovikian line and others get built okay and Orekiv could be a huge linchpin for southern defenses where you sit the high ground just beyond it the supplying to the west supplying to the east this is a very very important area it's not one of the priorities at the moment but it could very well become one it's what would need to be captured before further pushes either north west or northeast okay let's talk about the northeastern pocket somewhere me and Mr AMK spoke about several months ago the danger in this whole area here because the Donetsk river can be difficult to cross we have seen some of these bridges taken out this is in the Kharkiv direction as well as Kozaka Lopan and more and more people are starting to see hey this can be a real issue as we've seen troops around Bilye, Kolodyaz and pushing where we've seen this map confirm about eight kilometers in around right in that northeastern pocket and he has this today in recent weeks Russian forces have made progress on the Kharkiv front along the border with Ukraine supported by significant aerial preparation including hundreds of FAB strikes so you can see these red dots hundreds of FAB munitions supporting leveling areas for then the troops to move through it's not just ******* meat waves like people would like to say Russian have continued and expanded the infiltration zone in at least four directions Russian forces have entered Kozaka Lopan which is up here and northwest of Kharkiv and a series of clashes occurring between infiltrators and Ukrainian soldiers in recent weeks so Kozaka Lopan as we've shown you up in here the entry into that area we've shown you over the last weeks around the Verliky Bilyak area so to come down Verliky Bilyak in this direction but Bilye, Kolodyaz we've seen troops right up into these areas some maps will show out to Kazemelnyy Yar he's actually under Russian control some maps but the gray zone definitely extends out in here and on the far eastern side these strikes taking place and taking place just to the north of Kupyansk in this sector and this is the danger with these these bombs that there is no good way to actually intercept the bomb or the plane as we are seeing tens of thousands hundreds of thousands of tons of munitions dropped on areas like this and then that front line grinding forward and again that this area in here could end up with a large amount of kilometer squares under control not a priority but we have seen this area move relatively quickly and what does it do it puts more threat on the large city of Kharkiv and Kharkiv is a lot larger city than Kramatorsk Slovyansk Kharkiv and Sumy you can see where the Russians are applying pressure on these cities they're not at this point going we're going to storm the city no no but there's pressure on them and that pressure increases the value of these areas if in a negotiation they would pull back they go well we hold this close to Kharkiv we want more to give we want to we'll give this back of me kilometer squares this part is in here 86 but we're going to put that at a higher value and again you're going to have all of this little nitpicking in a negotiation this is exactly if you think oh that's stupid no it's exactly what Ukraine tried to do in Kursk they pushed up into Kursk had about a maximum 1100 kilometer squares potentially in Kursk and went well what we could do is swap that 1100 for maybe a couple of thousand somewhere else there was suggestion by Zelensky himself that swapping this for the occupied territory and what I said was okay that it's going to be a pretty bad deal to get it's about 111 112 000 kilometer squares I guess all up you're not going to swap that for a thousand but we've seen all of that take place now last bit I want to show you because it's been sitting here for a couple of days and I haven't is this video and we'll then we'll talk about it so this came out and you can see this is a Russian fiber optic drone striking a Ukrainian UGV if I can pause it at the right time ---- it has six drones six eight six drones on the UGV so you can see how these are taking place in the battlefield UGV moves forward you've got antennas on it and then the drones can fly out from here either connected physically by umbilical by by fiber optic to the UGV then the UGV transmits back radio or radio to radio as a repeater very clever and we've seen many things like this before and we spoke a lot when we first saw then fiber optics into the battlefield it doesn't need to just be from base station guy with a controller no you can have a base station connected by radio to a controller that these weapons have definitely changed the nature of war do I think that drones and robots like this are overhyped yes does it change the nature of war absolutely it does can you rely fully on that without looking at manpower no and because that has been occurring we've constantly seen the front line deteriorating and in my opinion actually set up for massive failure that we'll see starting to transpire likely in the next 6 to 12 months and I think in the last week we've actually been seeing more of that as I call it paying the piper lost armor says this 10 seconds the change forever changed the doctrine of mech assault the video fiber optic drone strikes an unmanned launch platform equipped with six fiber optic drones fitted with broadband satellite communication terminal starlink so that the UGV has its own starlink system as you can see on the left side and then these drones are connected to this physically by fiber optics so they go out into the electronic warfare bubble the autonomy of such platform can reach several days whilst firepower and properly qualified parts are allowed to halt a mechanized column on the march things like starlink make this possible and you can have just rosy-cheeked cadets sitting somewhere doing this amount of damage in this context attempts at mechanized assault by armored vehicles and columns in conditions of an unsuppressed enemy drone component in mid-26 raised bewilderment so when you see a mechanized assault in these conditions without huge suppression of enemy drones or then saturation of your own drones or it's going likely to fail what stopped working in 23 24 cannot bring success in 26 in conditions of a dead zone an order of magnitude denser and more advanced technology regard for the fourth allocation there will always be FPV drones and this is one of the things about the reintroduction of maneuver is even with manpower crisis that the amount of men you can actually have on drones is still relatively few it can still cause huge problems for mech assault in an unsuppressed environment what can be done systematic detection and suppression of UAV launch sites in the breakthrough sector to artillery preparation target identified elements of the drone components immediately before the columns so basically both of these basically the various it's suppression whether through the drone size actual or area suppression escorting of the units of armored vehicles need their own FPVs that accompanied by then drones and the parts could be further back or with and repelling these attacks and finding where they are being launched from the glide path of FPVs placement along the columns route allied waiters for early detection of enemy drones and rapid place replacement of allied birds dropping out of FPV escort as we have seen this before moving and a drone sitting on the road conserving its battery see a car and then hit it so down the planned route such measures do not guarantee the success of mechanized assault but significantly increase the chances of survival for equipment and personnel upon entering the dead zone either way implementing these measures is impossible without the closest interaction with the allied drone component that large scale and active participation of which mechanized assaults become one-way street also against the backdrop of the new imminent dawn i would like to draw attention to domestic developers to the enemies presented technological solution within the area of operations as a launch platform for FPV drones prepare the hardware now not a stillborn cyberarm charging a useless mortar or small caliber multiple launch rocket system on an unmanned cart in modern reality so we hear these imminent imminent dawn everything's about to collapse but luckily it's not that you still need to not just take into account everything's going to collapse going to be fine no you still need to continue developing and look at what is actually then occurring and look at things like that ug venga yet okay and we need all armies need to be aware of that's likely what you're going to be up against but the necessary infrastructure for organizing FPV drone launches within the frontline area under a promising terminal of the orthodox starling so what you've heard about is of course starling has been cut off for the russians but building their own somewhat mesh system of this using a number of cameras between some of the drones in the air your large drones actually making imagine like your wi-fi net mesh network at home and that can give placement to drones in the air and work as repeaters it's actually been so far a pretty good replacement of that system but again the need to constantly evolve is still there but also the need to constantly sit at the conventional war as well so it can be yes you need to constantly push r and d in development but that doesn't mean that you only push on just drones or just robots forgetting about at the end of the day the gates are held by men at the front the drones are controlled by men that you need these areas at the front well they need to be charged they need if they get stuck someone to move it recovery medical artillery men armor still has a huge place and a primary place in war supported by the kinetic lethality and force multiplication of drones both in the air ground and sea legends you have a fantastic day and i'll see you hopefully very soon thank you very much