Strategy Insights Ep 102: Before the Storm: Xi's Beidaihe Purge..Who's Next？

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Professor Ming's Strategic Insights. As of now, the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party are probably enjoying their so-called Beidaihe summer vacation. This Beidaihe summer vacation is sometimes referred to as the Beidaihe meeting. Before moving on, I have to explain a little bit what this Beidaihe meeting is all about. Beidaihe is the name of a city, a very famous seaside summer resort, which is located in the northeast part of Beijing City, about 300 kilometers or about 180 miles away from Beijing City, located along the Bohai Sea coast. This Beidaihe summer vacation is sometimes, as I mentioned, referred to as the Beidaihe meeting. It began in Mao's time, in the early 50s, as they got the power of mainland China, they began this practice. During the summertime, Mao Zedong went to this place, Beidaihe, and he gathered the top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party or the top leaders of the State Council, Central Military Commission, and some other people, like the top leaders of the National People's Congress, altogether about a couple hundred people in this place. So it's sometimes called the summer capital of China during that time. In the society, the Chinese people may sometimes joke about it and call it the summer palace of Mao Zedong. So it was an official working site during the summertime, sometime around mid to late July to mid to late August. It varies from time to time, but basically it runs about two to four weeks during the hottest days of the year. That was during the Mao Zedong period. When it comes to Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, and Hu Jintao, roughly sometime between 1984 to 2012, about three decades of time, this place or this time has turned into a, how shall we call it, an occasion for informal consultation. So there will be no official meetings, but there'll be lots of informal dialogues and conversations. But when it comes to Xi Jinping time, ever since 2012 up to now, it has, again, transformed itself into an occasion more like an informal talks, exchange of views, or sometimes informal meetings. So it is more like a summer vacation for them. At any rate, although it is an informal occasion for the top leaders of Chinese Communist Party to gather there during summertime, but it is still a very good chance for them to gather together. So they usually use that time to discuss things like important happenings or important events or important things to come. So as of now, at this time of the year, they'll probably talk about two things. First thing is about the 21st Party Congress to be coming in next year, 2027. But prior to that, they'll be talking about the topics about the Fifth Plenum of the 20th Party Congress and the Sixth Plenum and the Seventh Plenum, and so on and so forth. They'll be talking about policies and personnel shoveling and probably economy, of course. And so that's the first topic. The second topic, if our speculation is correct, they'll be talking a lot about how to deal with the United States and especially how to deal with Taiwan. And that's for sure. So if everything goes smoothly, Xi Jinping will be visiting Washington, D.C. in late September. So they have to talk about how to deal with the United States prior to that. And they'll think of something to win over or to court the United States. And as I see it, they'll probably cover four main topics in this area. The first one is how to win over the United States by making more purchases of United States grains such as wheat, corn, and soybeans, of course. And they'll do the purchase in different batches and different waves so that they can form a very effective and powerful way to win over or to court the United States. And that's the first thing they're gonna talk about in detail. That's for sure. The second issue that concerns them is probably how to block the arms sales to Taiwan from the United States, namely the United States arms sales to Taiwan. And that's a big deal because the United States is thinking about sending $14 billion of U.S. dollars worth of arms to Taiwan, including some very advanced and very cutting-edge weapon systems for Taiwan. And that's important for them. So as we mentioned before, that Beijing is seeking to take this opportunity to deceive Trump or to trick President Trump into signing a fourth communique between the two countries concerning arms sales to Taiwan and also probably concerning the escalation of the bilateral relations between Washington, D.C. and Taipei. And that's something that they pay much attention to. The third topic, I think, would be the Beijing leaders would try to better exploit the wars in Ukraine and also in the Middle East so that they can create a better strategic opportunity for them against the United States. And the last one, the fourth one, is how to exercise more pressure against Japan, the Philippines, and, of course, Taiwan. So these would be the four things that they're going to cover in this so-called Beidaihe meeting. And following this, they'll spend much time to discuss the topic of how to deal with Taiwan. The first is how to stop Taiwan's arms spending and arms investment. The first thing is how to prevent Taiwan from increasing Taiwan's military capabilities. For instance, how to block Taiwan's investment in military investment, how to block Taiwan's endeavor to build its own drone industry, to build more ships, to buy more advanced weapon systems from the United States or from other countries in the world. That's something they must do, and that's something they must place in a top priority. And that's the first thing. The second is how to strengthen its effective control over Taiwan, how to use so-called gray zone tactics to block Taiwan from gaining more international recognition, international awareness, or even international attention from legal, psychological, diplomatic, or even military aspects. Thirdly, they'll discuss how to provide more resources to people, political parties, or organizations inside Taiwan who are opposing Taiwan independence and how to win them over, how to draw them closer to Beijing or to support Beijing's position on this matter. Fourthly, or lastly, since there is an election coming in Taiwan in November, which is considered a key point in their policy toward Taiwan, so they think they want to gather and they want to mobilize all the resources to support so-called patriotic forces inside Taiwan, as we see at the fifth column inside Taiwan, and to help them to win the election who are in favor of Beijing's position toward Taiwan. In addition to policies toward the United States and Taiwan, the most challenging question is probably about the party itself. So how to cleanse the party or the inner circle of the party is, of course, something that they have to discuss. First, about the military, whether they're going to fill up the vacancies left in the Central Military Commission or the theater commanders or theater commissars or even the three-star generals who've been purged so badly. So whether they're going to fill them up, who's going to be promoted to these positions are very important questions for them to consider. The second is how to cleanse the party itself because the 21st Party Congress is coming next year and Xi Jinping is going to arrange all the personnel shoveling and based on loyalty or disloyalty. These are all very challenging and important questions for them or for him, for Xi Jinping himself. So these will be the questions to be discussed in the Beidaihe meeting, if you call it a meeting. By now, some of you may have the question, well, isn't Xi Jinping the top leader of a totalitarian Chinese Communist Party? How come that you sound that he has to face so many problems or challenges? Yes, that's true. Indeed, he's a top leader of a totalitarian party, but still he has to face many challenges and questions because he doesn't have a remarkable performance in his leadership of the party and also of the country. And secondly, he hasn't handled the relations with the United States very well and it seems it's exacerbating along the way. And thirdly, he fails to bring Taiwan even closer to the mainland. And fourthly, and most importantly, he has purged so many people inside the party and also inside the military. Namely, he has offended so many people and there are so many people who hate them so much. So putting all these together, you, Xi Jinping, still wants to get a fourth term. So aren't we going to suffer more after you got a fourth term? So that's a terrifying thought for many of his followers or his subordinates. So what I'm saying is, although this Beidaihe summer vacation or Beidaihe meeting is an informal occasion for them to gather together, to exchange ideas and things like that, but there are so many people in the meeting or in that area who do not like Xi Jinping or perhaps you can say who hate Xi Jinping from the bottom of the heart. And Xi Jinping himself knows it and he wants to consolidate his power even further. So that's where the contradiction arise. So that's where the problem arises. In short, although the Beijing officials will not let out too much details about this so-called Beidaihe meeting or Beidaihe summer vacation, but there'll be a lot of political maneuvers and political struggles behind the scenes of this Beidaihe meeting. And the consequence of the power struggle will be revealed or will be uncovered little by little in the fifth plenum, sixth plenum and the 21st Party Congress to be observed in the coming days. Well, that's all I want to share with you today. I hope you liked today's program and please subscribe to our program if you haven't done so and do remember to click the icon bell so that you get an on-time notification when we have a new program on. That's all for today. I'll see you next time.