How is the pro-Israel lobby influencing US elections?

It's becoming more and more obvious that if you're running for public office in the United States and you vocally oppose U.S. support for Israel, you could find millions of dollars being spent to keep you out of that office. Now, that's not just my opinion. The numbers speak for themselves here. Just this week, AIPAC spent more than $6.3 million against California State Senator Ayesha Wahab, who called Israel's actions in Gaza a genocide. After that much money was spent against her, she went from a 26-point lead to winning by just six percentage points. In May, Republican Congressman Thomas Massie lost his primary after years of opposing U.S. military aid to Israel. AIPAC's Super PAC, United Democracy Project, or UDP, dished out about $4.1 million in that race, mostly against Massie. The Republican-Jewish coalition spent another roughly $3.9 million supporting his challenger. Massie was a seven-term incumbent. He lost by nearly 10 points. That's almost unheard of. Brookings data shows that since 1946, House incumbents running in their primaries win nearly 98% of the time. Donald Trump was also aggressively trying to defeat Massie, so to be fair, you can't attribute his loss to pro-Israel spending on its own. But Massie's not the only one here. In 2024, AIPAC's Super PAC spent around $15 million helping George Vladimir beat Democratic Congressman Jamal Bowman, one of Israel's most outspoken critics in Congress. Bowman lost by about 17 points. Just weeks later, the same PAC spent about $8.5 million in the Missouri primary against Congresswoman Cori Bush after she became another prominent critic of Israel's war in Gaza. Bush lost, too. In 2022, the group spent more than $4 million in Michigan supporting Congressman Haley Stevens and opposing Congressman Andy Levin. Levin is Jewish, identified as a Zionist, but criticized Israel's policy involving Palestinians. He lost by 20 points. Across these congressional primaries, pro-Israel groups spent millions, and in almost every case, the candidate they were trying to beat lost. Every race had other factors, and this month's Michigan Senate primary proves that big spending doesn't always lead to the desired outcome. Pro-Israel groups spent about $30 million backing Stevens again, but this time she lost to Abdul El-Sayed, who called for cutting U.S. military aid to Israel. Still, though, AIPAC doesn't have to win every race to send a clear message to Congress. If you're a lawmaker watching this happen to your colleagues, it might make you pause before speaking out against Israel.