Two good opportunities today. AUD CPI and USD PCE Price Index and with soft USD, we have the edge!

Hi there, traders, this is Brad Gilbert with today's Trading Action, Wednesday the 26th of August. All right, now we've got some really good conditions and some good opportunities today, right? Better than we've seen in the past. Now, you look at the follow the trail sort of template here. You can see the US Treasury yields have really sort of backed off a bit, right, a fair bit. So that's gonna really calm the market down. And what that gives us is a slightly weaker US dollar, right, so this is good, right? You look at the major currency pairs, well, euro's sort of gone up and then stalled, but sterling still has a little bit of a topside direction. Aussie, definitely, Kiwi, the dollar pairs, well, you know what, they're sort of still hanging around. Okay, the beast is doing its own thing, but dollar Swiss and dollar CAD sort of really mimicking each other. Now, this is where you need to focus, right? The action today, if you come back into the economic calendar, we've got sort of two major sort of events, right? And what I'm looking at, if I just come up to the calendar, hit medium, right, what we're looking for is anything particular, right? Obviously, the Aussie CPI numbers, an inflation number or direct inflation number, and then as we go through the North American session, you're gonna have the PCE price index numbers as well, right? That gives us a chance to see what the dollar's doing and potentially hit the majors, all right? So let's just have a look. Now, when you are looking at the instruments and you've got an inflation number outside the US, it pays dividends to go and do a bit of homework on that instrument, right? So what I'm looking for is the Aussie daily charts, the crosses, see if there's any sort of major direction here that's going on, right? Looking for a general theme. Aussie Kiwi has come a long way and sort of drifting sideways. Aussie Swiss is going up, Aussie Yen's going up, Euro Aussie down, Sterling Aussie down, and a bit more of a gentle slope, Aussie CAD is up. So what that's telling me is the Aussie's going up against sort of most things, right? The upside bias is where the action's at. So you come into the hourly charts just to really finesse where those potential entries are, and you can start to see a very clear picture, right? Euro Aussie, we've got a trend line here to work with. Sterling Aussie, we've got a trend line, right? They're both stronger Aussie numbers. Stronger Aussie numbers on Aussie CAD, we've got a trend line to work with. Stronger Aussie numbers again on Aussie Swiss, we've got a number to work with, okay? And then Aussie Yen is just cruising topside. Aussie Kiwi, more drifting sideways. So what we've got is everything is, usually you get a situation where everything's geared up towards some strong, some weak. At the moment, the settings for this are all really primed for a stronger Aussie number, okay? And how else could you check that? Well, if you come into the CPI year on year, that's what the central bank is looking at. Now, the forecast is 3.2, and this goes a long way to confirming exactly what we just saw on the charts, right? We get a stronger number, check it out. As I said, most things are geared up towards an Aussie number. That's where the trend is. That's the easiest trade, right? And in actual fact, if I click on weaker, if we get a weaker number, right, weaker inflation, yeah, you just expect the indice, the Aussie 200, the all ordinaries to go up. So that's it, right? Weaker numbers, the indice is the one to be jumping on. If we get stronger numbers, well, then you've got a big choice, right? And looking at the Aussie, okay, against the dollar, it's going up short term and long term. These are the ones I would be focusing on where you do have specific clear direction, short term and long term. You have got lots of choice here. And as I just showed you on the charts, we also have trend lines to work with, which is our ideal scenario. Now, when it comes into the North America session, all right, let me just fold that down, the PCE price index. Now, have a look at the year on year numbers once again. Now, if we go stronger, right, what are we looking for? Well, dollar CAD, and it's not like it's a massive, you know, double lined up with direction. But you go weaker numbers, and the whole screen lights up, right? Weaker PCE price index numbers, sterling up, Aussie up, Kiwi up, gold up. I mean, there's a whole bunch of equity indices there as well. So we've got a lot of choice. And so it's not hard, right? Use the calendar, right? Weaker numbers is where all the action's at, all the easy trades. You just got to get into the trade, look for your trend lines, ideally, and that's where we are. Because if I come back to the majors on the hourly charts, use that bull bear pivot line as well. It's sort of showing you where the direction's going. Okay, so, and if I wanted to join the dots, and I know you're not online here, so you can't ask me, or I can't ask you the question, what's the best trade here? Well, I'll tell you what, stronger Aussie numbers, it's already going up. And then if we got weaker US PCE price index numbers, Aussie's got to be at least 100 points higher tomorrow. Right, that is your go-to because you've got two primary, fundamental numbers coming out, right? Don't forget the Aussie trade to get on its own, downside. Like, when I look at this, and I see all the entries for stronger Aussie numbers, I don't go and think, oh, well, I'll get on the other trade if it's weaker. Not at all. I focus on the one side that is easy to get in, and where all the market is going, and that's where the general trend is. So, I'll be focusing on downside, Euro Aussie, Sterling Aussie. Well, actually, basically, everything with a stronger Aussie number. Now, and this is the thing, we are looking for a weaker number than what we got previously. Okay, so, just keep an eye on the, I mean, this number here is the number we wanna look for, 3.2%. Now, the RBA do have their own trim mean, which can, you know, unstable things, if it's all out of whack. So, if that's, say for instance, the CPI number's weaker, and then the RBA number is stronger, well, what it does is it gives the RBA room to cherry pick which one they wanna use, right? It's a little bit of a, it's a bit of a con, if you ask me. But this is the number, right? So, if we get a stronger number, anything like 3.4, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, definitely, Aussie's gonna scream to the topside, and that's where you wanna be looking in, looking to get in. And as I said, you're spoiled for choice here with stronger numbers, and with the US PC price index numbers, we are spoiled for choice with a weaker US outcome, right? Two, this is like getting back to normal market conditions, right? It can happen very quickly. All right, guys, that's it for me. Nice conditions, easy markets, good charts, good trend lines. You have some fun with that. All right, guys, have a good one. Cheerio.