Flooding rainfall in Manila and a new Typhoon possible

It was a messy start to the work week here on Monday morning across the Metro Manila area as heavy rainfall continued to take place. All a part of that enhanced toboggan we've been talking about with a new low forming off towards the east of the Philippines and that monsoonal inflow continuing to impact the west coast including over towards the Metro Manila area. Separately a new storm could be developing out here towards the south and east of Guam expected to move towards northwest and could even develop up to a typhoon. Actually more than likely according to the GFS and ECMWF both putting that expectations out there at this time. I'm meteorologist Robert Speta-Akwesikuya Rob. I hope you're having a good Monday. I do want to say a big thank you for everybody who watches these updates. Not only hitting that like and subscribe button but also sharing out. Make sure everybody is staying informed and safe. And I just want to humbly say thank you guys so much for following along here with Westpac weather. All right let's get into our forecast for today. And the big thing is yeah that whole monsoonal surge we're continuing to see. We actually have a new invest here in LPA trying to develop out here in the Philippine Sea which is really going to add that influence and that extra enhancement of the southwest monsoon or that enhanced baga across the west coast of Luzon. Down through northwestern areas of Versailles. Especially over towards Mindoro. Maybe even into Negros as well as we go ahead through the upcoming week for that matter. Actually as we go out through Monday, Tuesday and into Wednesday. Just this general consistent setup staying in place with heavy showers at times. In fact the Philippine Meteorological Agency or PAGASA is saying especially on Tuesday and Wednesday they have those heavy rainfall advisories in place here. Especially during the afternoon you get that peak of the daytime heating and this river of moisture just sets up around this low that's going to drift off towards north and impact Taiwan. And even though it's not coming on shore across the Philippines it really is enhancing that monsoonal flow. I do want to note though that river of moisture is in a kind of narrow corridor from Region 1 down through Manila and into Mindoro. That's where you're seeing the heaviest of the rainfall with this monsoonal setup this week. But from basically central Versailles south across Mindoro over towards Indonesia those impacts from the El Nino is still very much in place here. It's being offset due to these lows towards the north but further south it is hot it is dry from Cebu and into Mindoro. Of course you have some isolated showers but you're not getting this river of moisture this corridor of heavy rainfall which has been coming on shore across Luzon. This is really the reason why we're getting all this rainfall. That combined with even a little orographic lifting across the Curitiba Mountains heavy showers at times and this is the reason why I've been seeing some mudslides out there with this atmospheric river just rolling over this area. So that's really the big setup here across the Philippines And really the big thing that would change it up is if the wind pattern does change. We could see that by the end of the week. For now Tuesday into Wednesday even over towards Thursday still got that heavy rainfall but then as we look ahead to the end of the week the winds are coming less southwest and they start to change more out of the south. And that really is going to dial back the precipitation because that river of moisture kind of shoves off towards the north instead of coming on shore and hitting those mountains here across the west coast of the Philippines. I hope that makes sense. Trying to break this down here for you. But until that happens across the Imbalas into Bataan where we actually have already seen some flooding out there today even over towards Mindoro heavy rainfall is going to continue over the next few days. And even in the places like the Anga and Maga Dam. In fact pretty incredible night and day difference from July 15th at the Maga Dam. Check that out. Now I'm going to step out of the way and give you a little reveal here. That's what it looks like here today. On August 15th I guess yesterday the Maga Dam water levels are back up to about near normal levels here. This is great news for farmers. But also you know another thing I want to notice is not only the dam levels here but just the greenery around it out here in Isabela. It's a big difference following all the heavy rains lately. So the rainfall obviously causing flooding and deadly landslides across the mountains out there in Benguet. But it does help out things like this with those reservoirs starting to be replenished here. So there's the good and the bad news with it. Now more rain is in the forecast though. Not only with this low here helping to enhance that monsoonal flow with that southwest early wind picking up yet again as we go ahead through this upcoming week. But then we change our attention further off towards the east with another storm system as I mentioned that could become a typhoon. And all these work in tangent to continue to enhance that monsoonal flow. And I expect above average rainfall through the mid to latter portions of September for the Philippines. But if you look at this look at all that dry air just towards the south. That river of moisture really is the big thing. As I showed you earlier that's the latest kind of expectations with this other area out here. Doesn't look like it could impact Guam. But maybe the northern Mariana Islands could feel some influence from it. And you can actually see here. Let's watch it through right in here. You might start seeing some development. Kind of have this broad area of convection. And then the moisture getting fed in and out of it. You see it tightening up drifting off towards the west. This is the ECMWF. Kind of give you an idea of this heading off towards the northern Mariana Islands. Now there is still obviously uncertainty. This isn't organized yet. If you are in Guam and Saipan I would watch this very, very closely through that extended outlook. Still about seven, eight days before it would even come near the Mariana Islands. So we've got plenty of time to keep an eye on it and see exactly how it develops here. But right now the Climate Prediction Center does say there is a high chance of tropical cyclone development in that area. If it does spin up, that would be just one more reason we would continue to see that enhanced tabagot or that monsoonal inflow back here towards the west. So a lot going on from here over here towards the Philippines while still staying dry down towards the south. Let's do our flyover out here across Luzon. Or excuse me, starting off with Mindanao I should say. Really relatively drier from Davao over towards Siargao, Cagayan de Oro. But then the further north we go you can see those rainfall particles really picking up more so especially here on Tuesday. Now once you get north of Cebu it's really a big difference. Especially along the west coast. Bicol, you know, you've got some showers there in your forecast too due to that monsoonal inflow on your Tuesday. But absolutely for Metro Manila Tuesday it's going to rain. Even over towards Bataan, like Subic, into Angeles, out there in Zambales, into Papanga, heavy rainfall, Panganatinan, and across La Unione, Locos Norte, Locos Sur, and also into the higher elevations, mountain provinces. Absolutely seeing that rain. Well, the Cagayan Valley afternoon showers are still likely here. But heavy rainfall and even that threat of some flooding and landslides in a few of these spots due to the consistency of these rain showers. Really every single day, places like Baguio, you're going to be looking at that threat of some heavy rainfall. Also keeps your temperatures a little bit cooler. Not much of a diurnal shift with lows still into the teens. Highs only around 20 to 21 degrees. Cebu, you're going to be looking at showers increasing by the end of the week out here. But still on Tuesday and the Wednesday you could have some isolated afternoon showers. While Manila has her daily afternoon storms as well. Continuing your forecast, highs staying into the high 20s only because it's a little cooler because of that additional cloud cover on Tuesday and the Wednesday due to that monsoonal inflow. So well over 200, maybe even 300 millimeters of total precipitation in spots along these western seaboards due to that monsoonal inflow. Because we have so much to talk about out here today. So know your information though. As I always say in all of my updates, from your official sources. I'm not an official source, but I try my best to share what PAGASA, JMA, or even the National Weather Service out of Guam is saying here. But always make sure you're being smart and prepare those emergency go kits. Especially if you're in one of these flood prone areas like we've been seeing here over the last few days. In the broader picture, if you're a surfer, even if this storm does develop and stays well towards the east, at least you're going to get some nice long period swells off towards the east coast of the Philippines. Especially out there in Siargao. Anyways, that's a look at your forecast out here today. If you have any questions or anything like that, please let me know. I also want to say a big shout out to our Patreon members. Like I said, I'll never put this stuff in a paywall. I just want to say thank you. That's all. Alright, that's all for today. Oh my goodness, I spelled Guam wrong. Ha! I just figured that out. That's embarrassing. Anyways, thanks for watching. And as always, stay safe out there friends.