Fed Rate Hike Wednesday: Gold, Oil, Bitcoin Charts And A Bigger Risk Than Nukes Now Reality!

Hey, folks, welcome to Verified Investing dot com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here, and in this special Sunday edition of my show, we're going to deep dive into every major headline that's breaking this weekend that's going to impact the markets next week. We'll look at the chart of the S&P 500. We'll look at gold, oil, silver and Bitcoin. But we've got to talk about the Federal Reserve meeting coming up on Wednesday and what the outcome for the markets is likely to be. So we're going to break it all down right here at Verified Investing on my personal YouTube, as always. All right. Before we do that, just a reminder, you can join my YouTube premium here. It's only ten dollars a month and you get a live Q&A. I did another one yesterday where people could ask me questions live and I was answering and showing my screen and analyzing charts live, exclusive videos every week, epic discounts every week and then swing trade alert posts. All right. That's charts when they're hitting key levels that I love, either long or short. And again, you get those all for ten dollars a month. Don't forget, if you do go through the Apple store, they charge you an extra 30 percent. So don't be surprised if it's thirteen dollars. That's because you're going through the Apple store. All right. Let's get right into it. Let's talk some Federal Reserve. So we have a two day meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The odds of a Fed rate hike are basically a lock at this point, meaning that if we look at this eighty seven point three percent chance that the Fed hikes rates in terms of Fed odds, this is essentially 100 percent. And I say that because we saw all the data last week, CPI, PPI data, and it was all in line or slightly maybe hotter than expected. Oil's gone over one hundred dollars a barrel. And the economy, at least the labor market, is staying strong. This is a recipe where the Fed really doesn't have a choice here. You had the ECB raising rates last week. You have the Japanese Central Bank raising rates when everyone else is raising rates. The Federal Reserve is going to have to raise rates regardless. And so you should expect Wednesday at 2 p.m. a rate hike of twenty five basis points. Now, let's be clear, the market essentially has priced this in. This is already in the cards with the market hasn't priced in that I'll be watching for on Wednesday. This is key is what Kevin Walsh, Chair Kevin Walsh, says about future rate hikes. That's going to be important. In other words, is it one and done, especially if oil comes in? Or is he looking to hike again, potentially in November or December? And that's going to be what swings the market Wednesday afternoon. So I don't really expect much to happen when they raise rates, as most people would think, like, oh, my goodness, is the market going to take no market already knows that it's all about the commentary and his guidance going forward. All right. So that's number one. We'll take a look here. In fact, we can go to the S&P 500 chart right now and take a look. Let's jump right in there. The S&P 500 on Friday bouncing off my bullish trend line. Now, remember, if you've been following along in the game plans that I do live and free on the Verified Investing channel, you know that right here, this is that line in the sand that I said, as long as we hold this line, I remain bullish. And sure enough, on Thursday, we came in, we kissed the line right here. You can see the low of the day went right down to that line. Friday, we had a bounce to the upside. All right. So in terms of bias, I remain bullish near term on the S&P. Yes, there are a lot of headwinds out there, but I actually look at that as a positive until it's the straw that breaks the camel's back economically. Then high oil, if the economy is still hanging in there. Awesome. You know why? Not because it's awesome for us at the gas pump. It's ludicrous. But imagine if all of a sudden we drop fifteen dollars in oil because there's a deal. What will the markets do? I mean, if the markets are literally two percent from all time highs right now and oils at one hundred dollars a barrel, what if it comes back to ninety dollars? What if it's eighty five still above the average for the year? But again, that would be a huge positive. Same thing with yields. What do yields do this week? Do we tag five percent? Well, if we tag five percent, number one, that's massive resistance. Number two, the S&P still just two percent away from all time high. So in the short term, until we get the straw that breaks the camel's back. And by the way, I don't know what that could be. Maybe it's everything that eventually just breaks the camel's back or maybe there's something that we don't see. And I'll talk about something next that I think could be a straw that breaks the camel's back, that could be bigger than any of us think, and probably is the biggest risk to the world since the nuclear bomb was invented or came up with. But ultimately, you got to remain bullish as long as the chart is bullish. And that's what I'm doing here. So, again, above seventy five, seventy to seventy five, seventy five on the S&P right here, I remain bullish with upside resistance potentially as high as If we get below this level, this is the neutral zone. And if we break here, that's where you got to really be concerned. There could be massive downside. All right. So let's move on. This next part is very significant to me. And the more I thought about it over the weekend, honestly, it's freaking scary. All right. So the CEO of Anthropic right here, Dario Amadei, said we must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of A.I. models. Now, remember, this is coming right off of the employee that I believe left open A.I. saying that the heads of these companies are plowing forward with developments far faster than they can keep up with keeping them in check. In other words, the A.I. is taking on a ability that none of the actual humans can control. And this to me will bring it around to the markets. Right. So I'll bring it all back to the markets. And I want to discuss that. But what I do want to do is give you guys my hot take. Now, what's my hot take right here? Let's talk about Gareth's hot take. My hot take on this is that A.I. is probably much more dangerous than nuclear weapons. And I say that specifically because nuclear weapons take time to develop. They are basically bombs that humans have to press the button on. You have you have some sort of security feature there versus A.I. as it takes on a mind of its own. And you have bad actors out there that utilize this. And there will be, by the way. And this is going to be the tricky thing for the U.S. companies is that do we really think so? Even if Anthropic and Open A.I. and Gemini, right. Google's A.I., even if we throttle the advancement there, does North Korea throttle it? No. Does Russia throttle it? Does China throttle it? Probably not. But at the same time, we're creating something that can go rogue or be used already to create things that can literally annihilate us. And this is where you have to wonder. Right. So, I mean, you know, a couple of the things that I've been thinking about, which which is pretty scary is, you know. So, first of all, A.I. can be used for amazing things, and it will be. You will get a cure for cancer probably in the next five to ten years, which is amazing. We'll figure out other things that will be amazingly beneficial to mankind. But I do worry about bioweapons. How fast can you come up with a virus that could literally wipe out most of the people in the world? Right. How about hacking into infrastructure? All right. We become so reliant on phones, on computers, on our utilities. How fast with supercomputer development and a combination of A.I. can these things hack into those and just shut them down? And all of a sudden, imagine the U.S. going dark. Credit cards don't. I mean, this really brings up the case for owning some physical gold. If you ask me, I mean, really, it's one more bullish factor in owning a physical asset that you actually can go and trade with someone. You know, we originally, you know, thousands of years ago, we had a barter system in many ways. Maybe that's where we're headed. Anyways, the point is, listen, I hope none of this comes around, but hacking the military systems, hacking the bank accounts. I mean, all of us have these these passwords. Do you know how fast a computer could break any of our best passwords out there to any of our accounts? Probably within seconds, seconds, it could run through every possibility. So how do we combat that? And that's the issue here. And again, I'm not going to pretend and tell you guys that I have the easy answer. I don't, but it is something that we are going to have to deal with. And it's something that the government needs to start stepping up and start talking about figuring out how to make sure that this technology doesn't get in the wrong hands and how to control it when it has a mind of its own. Crazy stuff, guys. All right. So that's what I wanted to talk about there. That was Garrett's hot take. As always, guys, I love it. I'm going to try to do some more of these. But Garrett's hot take right here at Garrett's YouTube channel and verified investing. All right. Let's get into the charts here. Before we do that, we have oil. Oil closed Friday at one hundred and five or one hundred dollars point oh five. That's WTI. Over the weekend, we have continued to see some additional strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. So it's unlikely as of now, unless there's an agreement made that oil is going to come down significantly. Now, I still think oil will come down. All right. Because remember, the best you're for high prices, high prices, meaning it destroys demand. At some point, people who are already stretched by inflation, which, by the way, is still, you know, three plus percent. And that's what they tell you. I think all of us would agree in certain areas like food and energy. It's much, much higher, which we rely on every day. But the key here is that, you know, at this point, eventually demand there is going to be demand destruction. There just absolutely is. All right. So let's go to the oil chart here and take a look at that. As we jump in here, we have the oil price again. But let's jump over to the chart of crude oil. Crude oil did pull back on Friday after a meteoric run to the upside. This was almost a 30 percent move in crude oil. So it was due to pull back. I also found this really intriguing trend line right through here. So if we look at this, you can see if we connect these highs with these lows, so you can see right here these two low pivot, low pivot to high pivot. And it gave us that top was oil extended. Absolutely. No doubt about it. So again, it was due to pull back. But as of now, unless there's a deal, it's unlikely oil is going to come in much. Now, again, just putting this all in context, the Iranians with the Houthis are making it so essentially they understand that there's a window here to essentially get a deal done. And you might see a lot of people in the comments. All the Iranians don't want a deal. No, they want a deal. They just want to be really beneficial for that. Right. They want to be able to charge tolls. They want to be able to do all these things. Right. And so this is the window now between now and the midterms is when Trump will have the pressure on him to make a really good deal for the Iranians to get oil down before the elections, before people here in the US go to the polls and vote to either displace the Republicans from the majority or not. And so that's why, in my opinion, you've seen the Houthis escalating even more via being told by the Iranians to escalate because they're trying to put as much pressure and then try to get a deal done that's super beneficial. Now, will Trump go for it? I don't know. But that is what's going on once the elections are over. I actually think Trump will escalate militarily from the US side dramatically because there's no elections and there's essentially no checks and balances at that point until the next election cycle two years out. Now, looking at the chart again, my guess is we still have a little of a pullback. I don't necessarily know unless there's a rumor deal if we'll pull back here in the next day or so. But I'm watching right here. Ninety two dollars to ninety three dollars. That's going to be this former pivot. Notice right here, price went up, pulled back, broke out. This is going to be your key level on the chart. So that's one of the things I'm watching now flipping over to gold. Let's take a look at gold. Gold continues to hover right on this flat support line. Now, again, to me, I still see a head and shoulders here. I know a lot of bulls don't want to believe it, and that's fine. And always remember, I'm super long term bullish, right? But I'm also a chartist. So in the near term, if price is going to break, I got to, you know, I'm going to tell you about it. Now, listen, a head and shoulders pattern until it breaks the neckline doesn't really matter. So it's only matters if it breaks the neckline. What's the neckline? This orange line at 4300. So if we get below 4300 on a daily closing basis, then you start having a measured move all the way down potentially. And let's do the measured move right now. So you have this. We drag this to our break point. Let's say we break here. So basically 3900, just below 4000. That would be your target. That's only if this breaks. If this holds, then gold can actually go up and go all the way back to this trend line near 4800. But this is this week. This is the line in the sand. And by the way, there are so many lines in the sand, so many. This is, believe it or not, it's a week when we don't have a lot of earnings. In fact, there's almost no earnings this week. We have the Fed. Aside from that, even economically, we don't have a lot. But so many charts are at pivotal levels, speaking of which, the 10 year yields nearing a pivotal level. We're coming up to this high, this 5% on the 10 year. I think we'll touch it. I then think we'll see it rejected. But this is the line in the sand. So you're right nearing this. Just as gold is nearing to break of its key level to the downside, the yield is nearing its massive resistance to the upside to see if it can break out, which we know yields in gold do move counter trend to each other. Same thing on silver here, guys. Let's look at silver real quick as we conclude here. And we'll go over Bitcoin. Absolutely. But here's your neckline on silver ascending, slightly ascending neckline. You can see again, shoulder, head and shoulder hasn't broken yet. It stayed right on that line. If we do our measurement, we take the highest point of the head. We drop a plumb line down to that neckline. We do a measurement. This takes us back to about fifty six dollars per ounce on silver. That's only if this neckline is broken. So watch that closely. And then, of course, I want to look at Bitcoin. Bitcoin is also at a major, major pivotal level here. And what we can see on this is, look, see this support area, this when basically when you broke above here, you came back, you came back, you came back. Are we going to break this level? It's pretty obvious this is the level here, which is basically between seventy five to five hundred seventy five thousand five hundred and seventy six thousand. So excuse me, seventy five thousand five hundred and seventy six thousand. So if we break here, then you have a much bigger correction. And my guess is it would go with gold and silver. Right. So again, notice how gold, silver, the 10 year and Bitcoin are all at pivotal levels. That tells you something about the coming week. It's going to be a week to tune in, guys. I'll be here live tomorrow morning. I should say it's on the YouTube, the verified investing YouTube, not on my channel, live tomorrow morning at 9 a.m. Monday through Fridays. I'll do my game plan where I give you all my trade setups, etc. We'll cover all the latest breaking news. 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