יועץ בכיר לענייני סין: המפלגה הקומוניסטית הסינית עשויה לקרוס בפתאומיות

Will the Chinese Communist Party suddenly collapse one day? China expert Miles Yu is warning that the U.S. and its allies should be prepared for that day now. Miles Yu served as a senior advisor at the State Department during the first Trump administration, where he advised Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on China policy. Here's the story. For decades, Western policy toward China has largely been based on the assumption that the Chinese Communist Party But Yu says policy makers should also consider what could happen if that assumption suddenly proves wrong. In an article published last week, Yu raises the question what the world would face if the CCP suddenly lost its ability to control China. He points to the collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe in 1989 and the breakup of the Soviet Union as examples of Yu argues that preparing for a possible post-CCP China should be viewed as a form of strategic insurance. Yu says the challenges could be enormous, including securing China's nuclear arsenal, determining what happens to its military and surveillance apparatus, preventing the country from breaking into competing local power centers, and dealing with the enormous state assets that could be up for grabs. Cheng Yifeng, an associate professor at the University of Technology Sydney, says sudden change may stem not from a single event, but from accumulated economic and social tensions triggering a chain reaction. The Chinese regime could collapse because it loses a war abroad, or even because its leader is killed. Another possibility is that the regime is overthrown by a bottom-up revolution. Or there could be an internal coup in which Xi is ousted by the military or by other anti-Xi factions within the system. Feng pointed out that the real estate crisis has already triggered a financial and debt crisis, followed by waves of unemployment and bankruptcies. Miles Yu points out that the fall of an authoritarian regime does not automatically lead to democracy. He recommends that Washington establish a permanent interagency plan for a possible post-CCP era, working with U.S. allies, overseas Chinese communities, pro-democracy figures, and economists.