Value Stocks Set To Outperform Tech Into The End Of Year? | Lance Roberts
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Portfolio manager Lance Roberts calculates that, more likely than not, stocks will rally into the end of the year.
But he thinks rather than Tech being the principal driver of the rally, it will be value stocks.
They've been bruised by rising yields and appear set for a recovery rally.
If bond yields cool off a bit, that will add additional propellant behind them.
For all this and everything else that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap.
#growthstocks #bondyields #municipalbonds
0:00 Thoughtful Money Fall Conference promo (speakers & details)
5:43 Market recap: weakness under the surface & ongoing divergences
6:49 Factor rotation (growth/mega-cap vs value/small-cap) & Q4 portfolio rebalance
10:00 Technical analysis: market-cap vs equal-weight indices & early sector turns
14:14 Historical Q4 returns in midterm years (averages & caveats)
17:55 Midterm election scenarios & expected S&P returns by government configuration
20:11 Bond yields update (around 5–5.3%) & strong recent auctions
22:47 Contrasting views on the long-term direction of yields
24:11 Is now the time to lock in higher yields / add bonds?
27:41 The only three reasons to own bonds (income, lower volatility, principal return)
30:51 Portfolio rebalancing mechanics with equities & bonds
36:18 Long-term 10-year Treasury chart, rate peaks & debts/deficits as disinflationary
40:16 Strategy for the next major downturn (bonds then equities; 2008 parallel)
45:34 Credit spreads update (mostly contained; junk-rated showing some widening)
50:08 High-yield debt risk vs equity risk in the same companies
51:50 Positive effects of higher yields (clearing malinvestment, better real returns for savers)
56:08 TINA is dead — capital shifting toward bonds
57:22 Record equity allocations & the case for normalizing risk in later-life portfolios
1:03:45 Municipal bonds introduction (tax advantages & state considerations)
1:07:05 Tax-equivalent yield, taxable vs tax-free munis & account placement
1:10:11 Selecting munis (revenue bonds, announced, avoiding certain GO/hospital risks)
1:14:08 Practical access: why larger buyers/advisors often get better munis
1:18:30 Recent portfolio trades (tax-loss harvesting, value adds, Berkshire, financials, utilities)
1:23:36 Closing personal rant: not forcing outcomes (Gentleman’s Olympics & life lessons)
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