Hot Inflation Couldn’t Break Gold, What the Charts Say Comes Next | Gary Wagner
October 16, 2026 Market Updates and Analysis
Gold dropped as much as $82 on a hot inflation report, then erased almost the entire loss a day later. Gary Wagner of TheGoldForecast.com says that kind of snap-back is exactly what a bottom looks like, and his year-end model has gold climbing back above $5,000.
Wagner takes Jeremy Szafron through the “engulfing bullish” pattern now sitting on the gold chart, the one candle that confirms it, and the single level that tears the whole thesis apart. He runs his Elliott Wave count from January's record high through the correction, and pins down where his models put gold by year-end and into early 2027.
He also returns to the $56 silver floor he called a month ago, reads what the gold-silver ratio is signaling, explains why a rising dollar and a 10-year yield near its highest since 2002 are the real threats to the rally, and points to a “price void” opening up in crude oil. After 40 years on the charts, he also says why he keeps stacking silver instead of selling.
Recorded October 15, 2026.
00:00 Gold Whipsawed $80 After the CPI Shock
01:16 The Two-Day Pattern Flashing a Bullish Reversal
05:19 The One Candle That Confirms the Turn
08:03 Elliott Wave, and What It Says About Gold Now
13:59 His Model Puts Gold Back Above $5,000 by Year-End
14:50 Silver's $56 Floor Held. What's Next
18:06 The Gold-Silver Ratio and the Case for Stacking
20:35 A Rising Dollar Is the Real Headwind for Gold
29:09 The “Price Void” Setting Up in Crude Oil
30:37 What the Fed Does Next, and the Final Takeaways
Follow Gary Wagner at (https://thegoldforecast.com)
Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron ( / jeremyszafron )
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