未 果

Hello, my name is Skylar Thompson. I'm the host of Chen Bocan's channel. I'm here today with Mr. Chen, China expert and political commentator, and I have a few questions for him today to reflect on comments that other China experts have recently made. So my first question is, Michael D. Swain, an American foreign policy and China security specialist, recently published an article claiming that China and America often interpret the same military actions in different ways. He's curious if China and America can move from competition to stability. What are your thoughts on this matter? Yeah, Michael talked about competition and stability. I think it's very hard. There is a competition between China and the U.S., but there is a difficulty to keep a stability situation. even though there is a surface stability but it's fragile so any time can change and they said they have same military action but a different way, yes different way because China want to sweep Taiwan or want to bully Philippines or Vietnam or other countries. America try to keep the world order and peace after the First World War, the Second World War, and after the Cold War, you know, America is the leadership of this world to keep peace. So America has a responsibility to keep peace. But China don't care. China only care for its own interest. So the so-called part, Taiwan is part of China. So they want to take over Taiwan. So make the Pacific Ocean in a continuous, intense situation. So CCP is this kind of regime. They always make problems, then make the Americans go to resolve the problems. So for this way, Americans feel really challenging. That means China is a troublemaker. Americans have to control this troublemaker or resolve the problem. So there is a competition totally different. One... One side wants to destroy the peace, and the other side wants to maintain the peace. So there's two different directions. Not only competition, it's kind of, you know, should it be an enemy or a friend? So stability is really difficult. Yeah, difficult to have stability when one side is, as you're saying, this troublemaker causing all these issues. And they're just inherently different morals and values and governmental systems. Yeah. Yeah. Well, Ryan Haas, a former National Security Council China official, is curious about Americans signaling towards Taiwan. How is the U.S.'s intentionally ambiguous policy towards Taiwan independence interpreted by both China and Taiwan? This person is Mr. Haas? Mr. Haas. Yeah, Mr. Mr. Haas has a good point. Said Americans should send correct signal to Taiwan, to Taiwan Strait or China. So it's time to repair how to send a signal. I think, from my understanding, when May, Trump, President Trump, went to China to have a visit, at that time, he, she, China, she talked with him a lot, whole night about Taiwan. So he obviously got influenced. When he came back to the U.S., He had an interview with media. And he said, oh, he learned from Xi Jinping one night for more than a long time about Taiwan. And he said, oh, Taiwan now have a person, someone want to pursue independence, look like change the status quo. So that time I made comments. I said, Donald Trump should not say that. President Trump should not say that. That's based on misunderstanding about Taiwan. Because how to look at Taiwan or Taiwan issue is not from Xi Jinping's vision. It should be from Taiwanese vision or Taiwan's, you know, politician's vision or all over the world. So at that time, I was worried. He commented Taiwan like that way. He said he could send wrong information, wrong signal to Taiwan. So another opposition party could use Trump's words to convince people that the DPP, the Progress Party, could make Taiwan in danger, could have a war with China. And another opposition party, Kuomintang, could make peace. So this information could influence Taiwan's election. so finally the result is there is a party pro-China party pro-CCP party could win election so that could be a disaster not only for Taiwan and also a disaster for America that could harm American interest so this time when Xi come to American visit when talk with Trump so Trump get to be I think Trump has learned from the lesson so he didn't talk with Xi about Taiwan and he didn't make any comments about Taiwan. So even avoid this topic. I think this way is smart. So this November, America has a midterm election. Taiwan also will have a midterm election. So any Trump's words could influence the election. So this time, I think Trump holds his positions very well. Don't discuss with Xi about Taiwan. Don't say anything about Taiwan. I think this is a more smart way. So that's why I said, yes, it's time to send, you know, to repair the signalling to Taiwan. I agree with Mr. Han's point. Yeah, that makes sense. It's easy to have your words used against you. Yeah. Yeah. So probably silence is the best route of action. um so Jonathan Zinn, a former CIA China analyst is curious if Americans are feeling more positively towards China than they have felt in the past few years and if so what has caused this shift of public perception yeah from my understanding because because America is an open society is a a multicultural country it's a democracy country so people can get all kind of different information so compare first of all compare with Russia is in a war with Ukraine and invaded Ukraine so American people has no good impression for Russia that's impossible yeah but for China China even though it's also evil not less than Russia however China now it's a big big superpower, big, you know, economic body, and second, only second to American, you know, better than many other countries. So China cannot avoid or undermine, no, the U.S. cannot undermine or avoid China's zone or exist. So at this time, we can say American people, when they use, you know, products, daily life, so clothes or, you know, home products, they can find many made in China yeah so they know China is a big you know manufacturing you know country the world factory so another thing is that China's economy look like America has something China has something America has a you know uh kind of uh AI China also have AI America has a nuclear weapon China has a nuclear weapon America has you know uh carriers and China also has carriers so at this time maybe American people feel oh China is strong is powerful yeah or something and also now China is not in the war even though threaten Taiwan bully Philippines but not in the war not like Russia in the war not like Middle East so overall temporarily maybe American people feel not so bad about China so people's public emotion mood is changing yeah only at this time temporarily good. And also it's different with China. China also uses propaganda, uses media, uses propaganda to be anti-American, anti-Japan, anti-the West. But the Americans don't have this kind of propaganda. They just report China by, you know, a balanced way. Something good, something bad. You know, something problem, something, you know, achievement. So making American people feel like they can have a whole picture about China. So this could be be the public mood can you know move time to time you know according to the situation yeah that makes sense i could also see some of that um what we've discussed before about like this Trump Xi summit and there was this whole big spectacle for Xi Jinping and like i don't know just kind of trump has also claimed like that he's good friends with Xi Jinping like maybe some people interpret that less as this like political move or like this way of like know your enemies um and more so as a like oh i support trump are we like cool with china now or are the allies you know just maybe some public confusion as well yeah people aren't always politically aware yeah that's gonna be but um my next question is Scott Kennedy a CSIS specialist in u.s china relations wrote an article about the lack of concrete change the recent Xi-Trump summits resulted in. Now, a few weeks post the summit, what are your opinions on this matter, Mr. Chen? Yeah, there is a summit between Xi and Trump, between America and China. So September, in White House, there's a big show there, you know, banquet talk. And many businessmen, you know, tycoon, showed up at the banquet. It looks like a very big event. However, I agree there's not much concrete results there. For example, there is a state banquet in the White House, and Donald Trump and his wife, she and his wife, are sitting at the same table. Besides these two couples, other people are businessmen, businessman, or entrepreneurs like Elon Musk, or Jason Huang, or Lisa Su, or some people like that, look like she should have a business for them, or purchase chips or semiconductors from them. Nothing happened. And recently we heard China developed its own chips or semiconductors, so it's a competition for an American company, Micron, or Niederia, right? Niederia. So there's no concrete result. Mostly, these summits stay on the surface. Many ceremonies are really copied or soldiers or flags and banquet. So the only I think the only result could say Trump and Xi has a good relationship. They can talk to avoid conflict, to avoid any kind of war. So this is the only thing. Other things, each side has their own position, has their own interest. We cannot see much, you know, result or concrete result there. So it's basically, it's a surface thing for this kind of event. Yeah, thank you. My final question is, in March of this year, Robert Sudinger, a former CIA China analyst, was part of an interview stating that Xi Jinping's political power had weakened compared to six to eight months earlier, and that the Chinese Communist Party may be weaker and more fragile than it appears. Now, more than six months after this interview with Robert Zudinger, what has changed? Yeah, Robert has an article, I think, published in March of this year. Almost seven months passed. So at that time he was talking China inside an internal power struggle in the party. She purged the top two military generals, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. But inside there was an intense power struggle. After six months, seven months, what happened? I think Xi's situation got worse. Xi Jinping's situation position get more fragile and more power struggle inside the party. We can say every month some officials, senior officials, get purged. Or every month something scandal happens. Now this month, there are going to be a wuzongquanhui. Wuzongquanhui in English is called the fifth plenary session of the party. So in this party, maybe she will criticize other officials. It's not about anti-corruption. It's about power struggle. It's about many people disagree with him. Or, you know, there's an anti-Xi fraction. So even though he purged Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, he didn't change his position at all. So now he has to maybe find his successor now because of his health problem, his body problem, and also he's exhausted from the power struggle after so many years, rule China. So, for this time, this power struggle in the party, in CCP, only can intensify, cannot reduce. But this month, only this month, October 2026, the fifth plenary session will have maybe some big event happen. Like who will be promoted, who will be purged again, or who will be the successor of Xi. Xi even though wants to be a lifetime president or chairman, but for his health issue, he may have to choose someone to be his successor. Yeah. Who will be his successor? Or there are many guess, many guess. Maybe Li Qiang, the premier, maybe Ding Xuexiang, the vice premier. Yeah. But many guess, but we don't know. And even his wife involved said his wife could be a successor for him. Okay. So, but all this is keep unknown and in the dark, you know, politics, political game behind this red wall. So we don't know, but somehow this kind of the fifth plenary session may reveal something, you know, for people to understand what's the power struggle in the CCP is going on. Overall, after Robert published the article, I can tell him after more than half a year, the situation gets worse. Nothing better for Xi Jinping than the CCP. Yeah, just on a downhill trajectory. Yeah. Well, that is all my questions. Thank you, Mr. Chen. And thank you to all of our viewers for watching this video. Please like this video, subscribe to this channel, and hit that bell for notifications and i hope everyone has an amazing weekend thank you thank you Skander thank you thank you have a good weekend bye