Toronto mayoral race tightens in final week, polls suggest

So let me start with the usual proviso that polling is just a snapshot in time. It does not predict the future. But what we have seen really in a broad sense is that the polling in May had Olivia Chow with a 13-point lead over Brad Bradford. Over the last five months, that lead has shrunk to six points. And pollster David Valentin of Liaison Strategies, who, you know, had or found these numbers in his surveys says that part of it really is because Brad Bradford over the last two months has been able to overcome to a degree some of the challenges he faced earlier in the campaign with name recognition. Mayor Olivia Chow of course has been you know on the political scene for decades. Brad Bradford while he is a two-term city councillor does not have the same level of name recognition as Chow so he has had to try to overcome that over the last number of months in campaign. So let's hear from David Valentin about that challenge specifically for Bradford. It was really hard for him to break through. The mayor, of course, was the mayor making announcements in her official capacity. Bradford did not have that advantage. But this happens every municipal election. Once the actual campaign period begins, the debates begin and start taking place. We see movement. We see undecided voters beginning to break. And that was what we've seen all fall is is really the race beginning and continuing to narrow up until today so Valentin also says that as the campaign has really narrowed its focus over the last number of weeks and voters have begun to you know pay attention the focus on affordability has really taken center stage to a great degree and promises about affordability specifically Councillor Brad Bradford promising to freeze taxes in the first year of his mayoral turn of term if he's elected and Mayor Olivia Chow saying she would keep taxes at or around the rate of inflation if she's re-elected. So we definitely could see the polls shift over the next week. And I'll be watching other surveys to see where they land and where that support sort of splits up for Chow or Bradford But, you know, right now it really comes down to ground game. It comes down to ensuring that voter coalitions that these campaigns have been working to build over the last number of months kind of come out, they turn out to vote, are motivated really by this race. So again, David Vallenton says he's keeping an eye on those specific coalitions and where they land. Let's hear from him about that work that the campaigns are doing. To me, it really suggests that she has her voter coalition and she was always going to hold on to it. I think she's grown it quite a bit from the by-election where she was in the mid-30s. Now she's at 50%, which is pretty good, pretty strong. But that being said, you know, Brad Bradford has been able to coalesce the center and center right in Toronto to be that credible challenger to Olivia Chow. And as a result, we've seen that race tighten so much. And it really does mean that this could be anyone's race. The other thing I'm going to be watching very closely is where the candidates physically are over the next seven days in the city. Now, Mayor Olivia Chow, I don't think it's any coincidence started her last week of campaigning in Scarborough. In 2023 she won big there and helped propel her to the mayor's office. Clearly she thinks that the path to re-election goes through Scarborough. Councillor Brad Bradford has said that he is going to be in all 25 wards over the next week trying to rattle loose as many votes as he can ahead of election day.